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One well-known research firm that tracks monthly layoffs by large private employers remarked that in June they remained relatively low. However, they are rising, and tariffs could accelerate the trend.

According to its new monthly report:

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers rose 18 percent, from 31,517 in May to 37,202 in June, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s job cuts were up 19.6 percent from the 31,105 announced in the same month last year.

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John Challenger, CEO of the firm warned:

In a tight labor market, it’s no surprise employers are hanging on to their current workforces, as four months of this year have seen job cut totals under 40,000. However, in the wake of announced tariffs, we may be entering a period of increased cuts going forward.

For many companies, that period already has begun or is about to. Several agricultural products already have been hit by tariffs. Auto industry executives warn that some tariffs could hammer jobs. Mid Continent Nail, among the largest companies in its industry, has already cut a significant portion of its workforce and said it may have to close. George Skarich, an executive at Mid Continent, remarked:

Cheap nail imports from China and other countries don’t face this tariff and are increasing every day. We need our wire to be excluded from this tariff or we will have to increase the layoffs we’ve already begun.

So, the layoffs may come company by company, but in some cases, entire industries will be affected almost immediately.

The labor boom may be on the edge of being over.