24/7 Wall St.

The bloggers clobbered the pros. Again.

When Apple beats, indies prevail, and so it was one more time after Tuesday’s Q3 2018 results. In my quarterly Apple Earnings Smackdown, now wrapping up its eleventh year, the independents took nine out of the top 10 spots—sharing the honors only with semi-pro Gene Munster, formerly of Piper Jaffray.

I would give a tip of the hat to indies Ovi Popescu and Michael Contant (Nos. 1 and 2 in Rev and EPS) if their estimates in the rest of the categories weren’t so execreble (Nos. 19 and 20th, respectively, with Contant missing Services revenue by more than $2 billion).

So the real winners in my book this time around were Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6—independents Jeff F, Horace Dediu, Robert Paul Leitao and “Beltway” Greg Boyd.  (Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6 in Rev and EPS with no major gaffs in the rest).

The losers were the pros who occupied nine out of the bottom 10 spots. I have to give a wag of the finger to Tim Long, whose revenue estimate was off by nearly $1.5 billion, and to the trio of pros—Piecyk, Walkley and Mohan—who underestimated EPS by exactly 19 cents a share.

Below: All the analysts I heard from in this quarter, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

Click to enlarge.

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows, in each category, best and second-best estimates (in bright and dull green) and worst and second-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.