Rosenblatt trims iPhone XR estimate by 6 million units
October 29, 2018 by Steven M. Peters
Jun Zhang, who blows hot and cold on Apple, blows cold.
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Monday:
After tracking sell-through data from various retail channels, we believe initial iPhone XR sales are weaker than we expected and weaker than XS/XS Max sales. We estimate global first weekend sales of the iPhone XR to be ~9 million units, 1 million units lower than sales of the XS/XS Max in the first weekend. Compared to the iPhone 8/8Plus, we believe XR sales are better, although the 8 Plus faced some constraints and a smaller sell-through base.
We are trimming our iPhone Production and shipments by 6 million units for Q4. We previously modeled new iPhone production of 90-95 million units and shipments of 80 -85 million units. We are revising our estimates to show new iPhone production of 88 million units and shipments of 76-77 million units for the second half of this year.
For the March quarter, we are modeling new iPhone production to drop 40-50% q/q. We estimate 36-37 million units produced and 35-36 million units shipped in the March quarter.
Combined with older models, we estimate C4Q iPhone shipments to be 82 million units, flat y/y from the 82 million units shipped in 4Q17. We model C1Q19 total shipments to be ~45 million, flat y/y.
Maintains Buy rating and underwater $200 price target (which makes no sense to me)
My take: Cowan’s Ackerman and Ramsay, looking at the same supply chain, are more bullish today. See here.
Essential Tips for Investing: Sponsored
A financial advisor can help you understand the advantages and disadvantages of investment properties. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.
Investing in real estate can diversify your portfolio. But expanding your horizons may add additional costs. If you’re an investor looking to minimize expenses, consider checking out online brokerages. They often offer low investment fees, helping you maximize your profit.