Daily Archives: January 9, 2007

Cramer’s Favorite Toxic Waste Pick

Tonight Jim Cramer on CNBC’s MAD MONEY said he loves garbage and waste, because we can’t stop producing waste. 

His top pick in the sector on November 11 was Stericycle (SRCL) that is up 20% since then, but it is still his favorite.  He said they have the medical waste arena and they have been acquiring mom and pop medical waste companies around the US.  It is the only national player in medical waste and they are the best capitalized of all the medical waste companies.  Cramer likes the long-term contracts in place that keep it from having much earnings risks and the aging population will mean only more medical waste at each facility.  It has 20% share in the US and only 7% in international, but the regulation in the sector is keeping the other competitors out.

His first waste management that he started discussing was in toxic waste: American Ecology (ECOL) he likes becaause of radioactive and toxic waste. ECOL ran 4% after Cramer noted it. Here are his full notes.

Cramer said in a call-in that the big traditional waste company like Waste Management (WMI) trade more like a cyclical sector now.  Cramer also said in a call-in that he has been wanting to and been waiting to Ecolab (ECL), but it has never given any sort of pullback that made the valuations worthwhile to get in (he wants a big drop in it to be able to buy it).

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 6:23 pm in Cramer

Cramer Likes Toxic Waste

Tonight Jim Cramer on CNBC’s MAD MONEY said he loves garbage and waste, because we can’t stop producing waste.  His stock in waste management that he first started discussing was in toxic waste: American Ecology (ECOL).  But his favorite pick will come second tonight.

American Ecology (ECOL) is one he likes for its hazardous, nuclear, toxic, and environmental waste.  The company knows how to exploit toxic waste clean-up into profits.  ECOL has only a $326 million market cap, but it closed up 1.8% at $17.97 today.  Its 52-week high is $27.91; trades at 21-times past earnings and at 18-times 2007 earnings.  Cramer loves the storage business, take-away business, and he loves the government business that they have.  Cramer said it is also part of a government sanctioned oligopoly with high barriers to entry because of all the permits that have to be held.  Cramer said it’s a defensive growth stock with close to a 4% dividend yield.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 6:09 pm in Cramer

Will Alcoa Help Metal Outlook in 2007?

Alcoa (AA) is trading up some 4% in after-hours trading.  The company posted $0.74 EPS and revenues were $7.84 Billion; estimates were $0.65 and $7.6+ Billion.  These EPS numbers were ex-items and there were gains and losses outside of this, but the company’s strong stance and outlook are leading the way per Alain Belda, the CEO & Chairman of Alcoa:

"As we enter 2007, market fundamentals remain strong. We will generate more than enough cash this year to fund our capital investment programs. We will continue to deliver strong results, invest in our future, and keep a strong balance sheet," said Belda. "And, we continue to manage our investment decisions and portfolio actions on the basis of contribution to profitable growth."

Alcoa has been very decoupled from the other aluminum trends because of internal issues, but this report weas good enough that it has some of the others in the group up after hours: Alcan (AL) nil; Novelis (NVL) nil; Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) +3.8% at $22.57; Century Aluminuaam (CENX) +2.7% at $40.47; also this was even good enough that US Steel (X) is up 0.8% at $70.75.

Jim Cramer on CNBC back on December 18, 2006 said Alcoa would be acquired or taken private by this time next year, so we’ll have to see if this acts as a tutning point for Alcoa.  The stock is still well under the mid-point of the $26.39 to $36.96 trading range seen in the stock over the last 52-weeks.  It has been dead money for some time as ittraded as high as $39.44 in january 2004 and $40.50 back in December 2001and almost $46.00 back in May 2001.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 5:43 pm in Metals

Herb Greenberg Is No iPhone Fan

24/7 has been pilloried for saying that the new  Apple (AAPL) iPhone may not get universal, overnight acceptance from consumers.

Interesting that Herb Greenberg over at Marketwatch has some similar opinions.

Among his observations are that the iPhone is expensive, that it works only on the Cingular network (which is not highly regarded for customer service), and that it will eat into iPod sales.

Well.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 5:34 pm in Wireless

Apple Steals Market Cap From MOT, RIMM, PALM, And NOK

Apple’s (AAPL) shares rose about 8.3% today, adding over $6.4 billion to the companies market capitalization. The put it at $79.6 billion.

Assuming the market is efficient, that money came from somewhere else. Maybe the investment came from cash waiting to be used by institutional and indivdual investors, but a great deal probably was a yield from other stocks that took a haircut. A lot of that would be from companies that the new iPhone might hurt.

Motorola (MOT) lost about $1 billion in market cap today to $44.2 billion.. Nokia (NOK) dropped over $1.6 billion to $77.7 billion. (So, Apple is now worth more that the world’s largest cell phone company.) Palm (PALM) lost about $200 million in market cap, and RIMM (RIMM) dropped almost 8% which is $2.1 billion of its hide.

So, about $5 billion in market cap disappeared at four iPhone competitors and over $6 billion poured into AAPL. Maybe a few other companies got pounded to the tune of another $1 billion or so to make up the difference.

One of the more extraordinary results of the Apple stock price rise is that the company now trades at 3.8 times its sales. At Nokia, that figure is 1.5 times. At Motorola the figure is 1.1x.

Wow.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 5:20 pm in Wireless

US Stock Market Close (JAN 9, 2007)

DJIA    12,416.60; Down 6.89 (0.06%)
NASDAQ    2,443.83; Up 5.63 (0.23%)
S&P500    1,412.11; Down 0.73 (0.05%)
10YR-Bond    4.656%; Down 0.004
NYSE Volume    2,937,431,000
NASD Volume    2,116,141,000

Apple (AAPL) rose 8% to $92.57 on over 100 million shares after Steve Jobs at MacWorld unveiled the set-top box to stream video from the computer to the TV and unveiling the long long awaited iPhone via Cingular.

R-I-M (RIMM) fell almost 8% to $131.00 and Palm (PALM) fell almost 6% to $13.92 on concerns that Apple phones would steal customers away and pushout orders for the start of the year until the phones are available via Cingular in June to July.  Motorola (MOT) also fell another 1.8% to $18.26 after Jobs noted the irrelevance of all the others to date.

AT&T (T) rose 0.4% to $33.94 as it owns Cingular.

Sprint Nextel (S) fell 11% to $17.45 after it issued an earnings warning, said it was cutting five-thousand jobs, and announced it Lost some 300,000 Nextel subscribers.

CANTV (VNT-NYSE/ADR) fell again, this time by 27% to $12.20,after Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has vowed to Nationalize the infrastructure in the country.  That is the political term for government stealing control from stockholders that bought into Privatization.

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) fell 1.3% to $3.71 after disclosing it was paying a contracted $83 million bonus to shock jock Howard Stern after getting more than 2 million additional subscribers ove plan; deal was agreed to in October 2004.

Dell (DELL) rose 2.5% to $26.84 after unveiling its new monitors, gaming systems, and media suites at CES.

Celgene (CELG) fell 4% to $54.85 after guidance was only in-line to a hair under plan.

As oil fell to as low as under $54 per barrel, major oil names gave up ground again: Exxon (XOM) -0.7% to $72.11, ConocoPhillips (COP) -2.6% to $66.51 and Chevron (CVX) -1.1% to $70.63; Halliburton (HAL) -0.9% to $28.71.

Natus (BABY) lowered guidance to lower-end of range and its shares fell 3% to $15.69.

Great Atlantic Pacific & Tea (GAP) rose 4.5% to $27.40 after it reported narrower losses and looks actually profitable.

Helen of Troy (HELE) fell 10% to $22.19 after missing earnings expectations, while investors were hoping it was finally turning around.

Juniper (JNPR) fell 0.9% to $20.06 after it yesterday named Stephen Elop as its Chief Operating Officer, former President/CEO of Macromedia.

Mentor Graphics (MENT) raised guidance; stock rose 2%.

Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) rose by 6% to $26.64 after receiving FDA Fast Track designation on its stem cell treatment for Crohn’s Disease.

William Sonoma (WSM) rose by almost 6% to $33.10 after saying its holiday sales were +1.1% and sees EPS $1.03-1.09 vs $1.03 estimates.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) fell almost 4% to $51.93 after it was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ at Merrill Lynch on competitive and margin pressures ahead in 2007 after it ran 60% in 2006.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 4:10 pm in Market Close

Cramer on Exiting Latin America, Plus His Stance on Apple

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Cramer had some things to say about Latin America after Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has essentially laid the groundwork to steal back the national telecom and oil infrastructure back into government ownership after the prior governments privatized these: He says you are a pig if you are staying in Latin America because they can steal back your company.

Cramer said he still likes Apple (AAPL) but he said he thinks the iPhone price seems high and he wants to look at more information before getting behind it.  This was his #2 Growth Stock for 2007 last week.

On KSwiss (KSWS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) he said he agrees with CNBC’s previous guest Olsteen about inventory situations and was cautious on the names there.

Cramer was asked about Nordson (NDSN), a thin volume company, he said its dividend helps make it safe and it’s what he called a "chicken cyclical."

Cramer said that if you liked China Life (LFC) when it was up 20%, well now’s your shot at minus 10%.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 2:50 pm in Cramer

Big Financial Websites Lose Audience

Stocks: (DJ)(YHOO)(MSFT)(RTRSY)(TWX)

December was an woful month for financial websites. At least according to Comscore.  The unique visitors to big business web properties including MSN Money, Dow Jones sites, and AOL Finance fell very sharply. And the online properties at Forbes were decimated.

Yahoo! Finance and BusinessWeek online had healthy gains. Manta.com, which provides research on companies, credit histories, and customer data for businesses made a huge move up that list.

Total Unique Visitors (000)
Dec-05 Dec-06 % Change
Total Internet : Total Audience (US) 170,285 174,199 2
News/Research 42,923 43,317 1
MSN Money 11,174 9,760 -13
Yahoo! Finance 9,194 9,611 5
AOL Money & Finance 11,327 9,276 -18
Dow Jones & Company 6,657 5,254 -21
CNN Money 4,667 4,319 -7
Forbes Property 10,552 3,604 -66
Reuters Group 3,396 2,837 -16
Bankrate.com Sites 2,528 2,567 2
MANTA.COM 962 2,038 112
Business Week Online 1,787 1,976 11

Source: Comscore Media Metrix

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 2:05 pm in Internet

GM Smacks Exxon (GM)(XOM)

The management at GM should give up selling cars and trade oil futures. GM’s chief economist Mustafa Mohatarem says oil will drop to $40 a barrel this year. The man could make billions and keep his day job.

GM’s ability to see the future yields an view that oil will be much lower because of non-OPEC production increases and slowing economic growth.

Wall St. has to wonder if the economists at GM get paid extra for forecasts that would favor the car industry. Or, perhaps he came up with the forecast without any help from the teacher.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securites in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 1:47 pm in Oil & Gas

Apple’s Delivery as MacWorld

Apple (AAPL) executives must have either read all the Wall Street discussion groups or just decided to deliver the inevitable.  There was speculation of the Apple cell phone compatible and integrating to iTunes and there was more speculation of the set-top box.  So they decided the right thing to do is to unveil both.

The set-top box will stream video from computers to Televisions and is supposed to be easy to use.  The phone is said to be an iTunes phone and thinner than other phones on the market and it has stylus sensor activation rather than a keyboard on the phone.  Cingular has the Apple alone is the named phone carrier, at least they are the only for now.  Obviously the WiMax initiatives coming out are going to make receiving the song downloads easier in the coming years.

Expect to see a myriad of various analyst and brokerage calls today and tomorrow based on these new initiatives.  Some will say this is what they expected but many will be forced to say this was better than what they were expecting because so many research reports had noted the phone would be pushed out until later dates.  So the news is out, now we’ll get to focus on the coming execution ahead.

Apple shares are up 2.8% to $87.85, and shares have whipped around a bit today.  It has already traded more than 50 million shares, close to double its normal volume.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 1:08 pm in Consumer Electronics, Media, PC Companies, Telecom, Wireless

24/7 Wall St. 2007 Price Forecast: Qualcomm, $32

Over the next week 24/7 Wall St. will set mid-year price targets (June, 30, 2007) for the sixty most widely traded stocks. These targets will be based on past price performance, industry activity, forward projections of financial performance, outside analyst opinions, and research conducted for doing past articles on these firms. The price targets assume flat markets over the next six months. In other words, if the Nasdaq moved up 25% between now and mid-year, the target share price targets would probably be too low. If the market moved down by 20%, they would probably be too high

Qualcomm. (QCOM) If you look up the phrase "what can go wrong, will go wrong" in a reference book, Qualcomm’s logo should be on the page. The company owned the wireless chip and handset IP licensing market and it drove the stock from under $13 in July 2002 to over $53 in May 2006. The stock now trades at under $38.

The list of what went wrong goes on and on. The company is in a dispute with its largest customer, Nokia. The negotiations to renew the Qualcomm licensing deal are going nowhere. There is even mention of bringing in an arbitrator. The contract expires in three months. Qualcomm is also in a patent dispute with competitor Broadcom. The company’s potential monopoly position is being reviewed by the European Union and officials in Korea.

Qualcomm is doing a few things to help its case. It is building Bluetooth and WiFi capability into some of its chips. Morningstar likes the stock because: "while the company’s royalty agreements have come under increased scrutiny lately, we still believe the company stands to benefit from increased adoption of CDMA technology globally." But, JP Morgan and Oppenheimer have both recently downgraded the stock.

Over the last six months, there has been no insider buying in the stock against 19 insider sales. Not exactly a ringing endoresement.

After tremendous net income growth from 2002 to 2005 (fiscal year ends September), growth slowed considerably in the 2006 fiscal year. The company has said that its operating income could be further squeezed by legal costs related to its disputes with Broadcom and antitrust investigations.

Factors that could move the stock above target: If Qualcomm could mend its fence with Nokia on reasonable licensing terms, it would do the company a world of good.

Factors that could move the stock below forecast: If the EU or Korea really decide to go after Qualcomm on antitrust issues. If the courts decide that Broadcom should get a piece of Qualcomm’s licensing action due to patent infringement.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 1:01 pm in Telecom

24/7 Wall St. 2007 Price Forecast: Level 3, $5.50

Over the next week 24/7 Wall St. will set mid-year price targets (June, 30, 2007) for the sixty most widely traded stocks. These targets will be based on past price performance, industry activity, forward projections of financial performance, outside analyst opinions, and research conducted for doing past articles on these firms. The price targets assume flat markets over the next six months. In other words, if the Nasdaq moved up 25% between now and mid-year, the target share price targets would probably be too low. If the market moved down by 20%, they would probably be too high

Level 3. (LVLT) Level 3’s stock may be the victim of its own success in 2007. Last year the stock moved from $2.75 to over $6.

The tale of the company is based on which of two stories Wall St. wants to believe. One is that the company’s debt is so large that LVLT cannot reasonably generate the cash flow to save the business. The other is that with broadband adoption driving huge bandwidth needs for video, voice and data, Level 3 will see a sharp improvement in cash flow and, with its higher stock price, can improve its balance sheet with shares that have more than doubled in value. JP Morgan is buying the bull case big time. It has just raised it targer price on the stock to $8.

Level 3 seems to buy a company a month. It recently bought part of Savvis and just closed it purchase of Broadwing. So much M&A activity along with a balance sheet that requires an actuary to read do make the company’s progress harder to track.

If the stock had not already doubled, it would be easy to see it driving higher. But, the air is already pretty thin up here above $6.

Factors that could drive that share price above forecast: If big telecom customers need to buy a lot of additional capacity of video and VoIP, the margin on LVLT’s bandwidth could rise.If cash flow improves, the debt the companies carries is not so scary.

Factors that could drive the shares below forecast: Level 3 needs to have a nearly perfect year given how much the price rose in 06. Even a small miss compared to expectations could be punishing.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 12:28 pm in Telecom

24/7 Wall St. 2007 Price Forecast: Nokia, $23

Over the next week 24/7 Wall St. will set mid-year price targets (June, 30, 2007) for the sixty most widely traded stocks. These targets will be based on past price performance, industry activity, forward projections of financial performance, outside analyst opinions, and research conducted for doing past articles on these firms. The price targets assume flat markets over the next six months. In other words, if the Nasdaq moved up 25% between now and mid-year, the target share price targets would probably be too low. If the market moved down by 20%, they would probably be too high

Nokia. (NOK) Nokia’s stock price has been fairly flat over the last year, thanks, in part, to Motorola. Nokia took a big hit when Motorola warned its margins were poor in the fourth quarter.

Nokia does have some important things going for it. How about being No.1 in global market share for handsets. The company has just introduced a slim phone to compete with the Motorola RAZR and cut a deal with Skype to offer VoIP on some of its cell phones. The knock against Nokia is that its sales are growing in China and India where phones are cheap and have lower margins. Growth in the US and Europe is poor.

Handsets are not the only business line at Nokia. It makes network equipment and recently announced it would  help build out the huge WiMax network for Sprint. And, Nokia and Siemens are combining their network equipment units in a joint venture that should be much more profitable just on cost eliminations.

Ratings on Nokia’s shares are being cut left and right. That is often a good time to look at the shares in a company that is a clear market leader.

If any company has the ability to squeeze cost-per-handset, it is Nokia. It controls 33% of the global handset market. As handset prices drop no other company has a better chance of holding margins at a reasonable level. The company also has huge cash reserves that work out to about $3 per share, according to Morningstar. With shares at just above $19 very few companies can boast that kind of ratio. The cash also helps the company drive a 2% yield and could allow the company to shrink its shares outstanding through buy-backs.

Factors that could drive the stock above forecast: Even a small improvement in margins on handsets above Wall St. expectation could move the shares up. So could early success in the equipment joint venture with Siemens.

Factors that could move the shares below forecast: any drop in global market share or below expectation figures on handset market could pound the stock.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 12:06 pm in Wireless

IPO Alert: VeriChip Amended IPO Filing and Backdoor Plays

VeriChip has made an amended filing on its IPO process, and this now looks closer to fruition than it has previously.  The company will trade under the ticker "CHIP" on NASDAQ.  Underwriters on the prospectus are listed as Merriman Curhan Ford, C.E.Unterberg Towbin, and Kaufman Brothers.  The number of shares and pricing terms have not been set here.

If you have been following the story at all, as it is a cult stock status, VeriChip is what the street has been deeming as RFID for people and portable location-based assets mostly geared toward healthcare.  VeriChip just announced on Monday that it received the US patent for its portable RFID asset tracking system, so that may have been the last hurdle (or one of them) that the company has been waiting to finally come public.

As of November 2006, its RFID systems have been installed in over 4,000 healthcare locations, primarily located in North America.  The company believes it already has 50% facility penetration for infant tagging at birth facilities in the US.  It is also looking to its VeriMed system, the controversial human implantable microchip, as the next major avenue of growth after some key patents expire in April 2008; other products are VeriGuard and VeriTrace.  Its revenues for 2005 were $24.5 million (after acquisitions) and its net loss after taxes was $5.5 million; the 9-months ended 2006 saw revenues of $20.34 million and a net loss after taxes of $3.45 million.

Applied Digital (ADSX) has been one backdoor play on this IPO and now that looks to be coming closer to actually happening.  The company was formed in November 2001 and Applied (ADSX) owns 5.55+ million shares; IBM Credit Corp owns 410,889 shares in the company.  The other backdoor play here is actually Digital Angel (DOC-AMEX), which is the sole supplier of its implantable microchip that has been sourced from Raytheon (RTN).  The company has minimum purchase requirements on chip purchases or Digital Angel can sell to third parties: 2007 $875,000; 2008 $1.75M; 2009 $2.5M; 2010 $3.75M; 2011 & Beyond $3.75M.  Digital Angel is an old tied-company to Applied Digital as well, so this actual situation is deemed as a double backdoor play.

This has been in the hopper for some time, and this latest patent announced Monday might have been one of the last hurdles to an IPO.  Applied Digital (ADSX) is up 1% at $1.959 and has a market cap of $131 million.  Digital Angel (DOC) is also up 1% at $2.69 and has a market cap of $119.75 million.

If you would like to receive future emails regarding backdoor plays, special situation investing, IPO’s, and BAIT SHOP emails on buyout candidates then please send an email to jonogg@247wallst.com and label the subject as SUBSCRIBE.  We value privacy and do not share our distribution lists with any third parties.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 10:25 am in Biotech, IPOs, Micro Cap, Semiconductor

Just How Much is Howard Stern Really Worth to Serius?

The answer: More than you could guess.  SIRIUS Satellite Radio (SIRI) has announced that it exceeded pre-Howard Stern subscriber estimates for 2006 by more than 2 million members.  Based on this target agreed to back in October 2004, Sirius delivered to affiliates of Stern 22,058,824 million shares of common stock, valued at approximately $82.9 million.  The company said that expenses related to this payment have been reflected in its operating results throughout 2006. 

22 million shares, and almost $83 million?  Hasn’t he already collected like $500 million in stock option payments? This redefines the term SHOCK JOCK.  Stranger things have happened, I guess.  ou can’t say that the company should back out of this, because that is the deal they signed.  But other companies might raise their eyes at such payment.  If XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) has any interest in a merger with Sirius, they might want to be eyeinging bonus payment agreements for down the road.  You also have to wonder what Stern and other talent and management would get in accelerated options via a come-along or chang in control clause in any such deal.

Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 9:35 am in Satellite

Analyst Call (JAN 9, 2007)

AEG raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch.
AT cut to Neutral at Prudential, cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
AZ cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
BEXP cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
BSY raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
CELL cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
CHU cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CRH cut to Neutral at UBS.
EMAG cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
ENDP raised to Buy at Jefferies.
FDC cut to Mkt Perform at William Blair.
GPS cut to Sell at AGEdwards.
GRMN cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
HSIC cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
HSP raised to Buy at B of A.
INCY raised to Buy at UBS.
KNOT started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
LYO cut to Neutral at B of A.
MFE McAfee started as Outperform at Wachovia.
MPW cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
NCR raised to Outperform at RWBaird.
NOVL raised to Outperform at JMP Securities.
NST raised to Hold at Citigroup.
PTV cut to Hold at Citigroup.
REP cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
S cut to Sector Perform at CIBC, cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse, cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
TDW raised to Neutral at UBS.
WWY started as Underperform at Bear Stearns.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 8:13 am in Analyst Calls

Pre-Market Stock Notes (JAN 9, 2007)

(AA) Alcoa reports after close and is expecting $0.65 EPS on sales of roughly $7.6 Billion.
(AAPL) Apple is up 1% ahead of macWorld on expected Apple Phone.
(ACAS) American Capital Strategies priced 6.3M shares at$45.83.
(AGIX) Atherogenics refined the timing on its ARISE clinical trial.
(BABY) Natus lowered guidance to lower-end of range.
(CELG) Celgene trading down 5% on slightly lowered guidance.
(CRDN) Ceradyne raised revenues to $178M for last quarter preliminary numbers vs $173M (e).
(EMMS) Emmis $0.02 EPS vs $0.01e.
(GAP) Great Atlantic Pacific & Tea reported narrower losses and looks actually profitable.
(GBX) Greebriar $0.12 EPS vs $0.12e.
(GE) GE is finally selling off its GE Plastics unit and will seek bids in an expected $10B sale.
(GILD) Gilead up on Cramer comments ahead of JPMorgan Biotech Conference.
(HELE) Helen of Troy down 12%after missing earnings expectations.
(HOKU) Hoku is planning a new $220M polysilicon plant construction.
(IAR) Idearc filed to sell 2.5M shares of common stock.
(JNPR) Juniper named Stephen Elop as its Chief Operating Officer, former President/CEO of Macromedia.
(KVHI) KVH Industries lowered guidance.
(MENT) Mentor Graphics raised guidance; stock rose 2%.
(NWY) New York & Co put EPS at lower-end of range.
(OPTM) Optium is #1 overlooked IPO from 2006.
(OSIR) Osiris Therapeutics received FDA Fast Track designation on its stem cell treatment for Crohn’s Disease and will proceed to Phase III trials.
(PFGC) Performance Foods sees EPS $0.17-0.20 vs 0.19e.
(S) Sprint fell 8% after-hours on lowered guidance and 5,000 job cuts.
(SVU) Supervalu earnings were a tad light to street but within expectations and guidance of company.
(TMO) Thermo Fisher positive from Cramer ahead of JPMorgan Biotech Conference.
(TWB) Tween Brands lowered guidance.
(WSM) William Sonoma holiday sales (s-s-s) +1.1%; sees EPS $1.03-1.09 vs $1.03e.

by Jon C. Ogg
January 9, 2007

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 7:58 am in Pre-Market Activity

24/7 Wall St. 2007 Stock Price Forecast: Motorola, $24

Over the next week 24/7 Wall St. will set mid-year price targets (June, 30, 2007) for the sixty most widely traded stocks. These targets will be based on past price performance, industry activity, forward projections of financial performance, outside analyst opinions, and research conducted for doing past articles on these firms. The price targets assume flat markets over the next six months. In other words, if the Nasdaq moved up 25% between now and mid-year, the target share price targets would probably be too low. If the market moved down by 20%, they would probably be too high

Motorola. (MOT) From April 2005 to October 2006, Motorola’s share rose from under $15 to over $26. The market started to get nervous about the shares and by the turn of the year they were below $21. The MOT announced that its Q4 would be weak and all hell broke loose. The stock dropped as low as $18.

There is a segment of investors on Wall St. who make a lot of money buy buying out of favor stocks. They have the "Dogs of the Dow" mentality. If a pretty good company gets hammered, buy the stock. It will probably go up. It can be a dangerous game.

With sale of its flagship RAZR slowing and its revenue per phone falling as it battle Nokia for share and customers in developing markets look for cheaper phones, Motorola is in a bind. The company’s CEO says the way out is offering phones with the capacity to offer more services. Those phones should fetch a better price. To move into that game, Motorola has set up deals with Microsoft and Yahoo! The arrangements will put search and information features onto more phones and will add MSFT digital right management software to make media downloads more secure.

But, software deals are not going to get it done, not by themselves at least. Nokia is coming out with a new slim multimedia phone to go after MOT’s RAZR.

While it is difficult to say what mobile handset sales will look like in five or ten years, there is one large consumer trend that plays in Motola’s favor. That is that the penetration of cell phone owners in markets like China could still rise sharply. As the world’s No.2 provider of handsets, Motorola should get more than its share of those sales. If it can hold revenue per phone steady, it may well get back its bounce.

Motorola also has some other key units that could kick in growth. It set-top box division should benefit from the larger and larger numbers of digital television homes. The companies large telecom infrastructure equipment business should also do well as data, voice and video traffic increases.

Factors that could move stock above forecast price: The market is looking for Motorola’s handset business to have margins as low as the single digits. Anything better would help the shares. It sales in emerging markets grow without the units being extremely low-revenue-per-handset, Wall St. could warm to the share again.

Factors that could push the stock below forecast: Another warning on margins.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securites in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 7:17 am in Wireless

24/7 Wall St. 2007 Price Forecast: Sprint, $22

Over the next week 24/7 Wall St. will set mid-year price targets (June, 30, 2007) for the sixty most widely traded stocks. These targets will be based on past price performance, industry activity, forward projections of financial performance, outside analyst opinions, and research conducted for doing past articles on these firms. The price targets assume flat markets over the next six months. In other words, if the Nasdaq moved up 25% between now and mid-year, the target share price targets would probably be too low. If the market moved down by 20%, they would probably be too high

Sprint/Nextel. (S) Sprint disappointed the market by saying next year would be mediocre, at best. The stock fell below $18 on the news. DeutscheBank cut the stock to "sell" and called the forecast "abysmal". Other downgrades are sure to follow. Who knows, the CEO could lose his job. Several other top official have already left.

Sprint was not exactly doing well before all of this. Its stock is down 15% over the last yeast. Its integration of the Nextel business has gone badly. It is adding fewer new subscribers that rivals Cingular and Verizon Wireless.

Sprint does have some gas left in the tank. The most important part of its strategy going forward is a national WiMax network that will reach 100 million people. Nokia has signed on as a supplier. So have Samsung and Motorola. And, Intel is the biggest backer of WiMax in the world. It will make the chips to take the signal.

WiMax is already up and running in places like Korea, but with so many large tech companies making a big bet, WiMax has to get a foothold in the US. And, Sprint is their horse in the race.

Sprint is independent. Cable companies need a partner to offer cellular services to compete with the telecoms, especially Verizon and Cingular (part of AT&T). That is not a bad position to have. The company has 52 million customers, and cable companies would like to see that number rise to weaken their competitors for the "triple" play of voice, TV, and broadband.

With bad news taking the stock down, any good news is likely to cause a fairly share rebound. Sprint has it gun loaded. Now the market wants to see it fire.

Factors that could cause the stock to rise above forecast: Sprint has indicated that 2007 will be flat with 2006. Any sign that it is doing better would be a big relieft.

Factors that could cause the stock to fall below forecast: If Sprint cannot pick up the rate at which it adds new subscriber and cut "churn" (customers dropping the service who have to be replaced), even faith in the future of WiMax may not hold the stock up.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 6:51 am in Wireless

Europe Markets 1/9/2006 France Telecom, British Air Rise, BP Falls

Stocks:  (BCS)(BT)(BAB)(BP)(GSK)(UN)(RTRSY)(VOD)(BAY)(DCX)(DB)(DT)(SI)(SLU)(AXA)(FTE)(V)

Markets in Europe were up modestly at 6.30 AM New York time.

The FTSE rose .4% to 6,216. Barclays was up 1.6% to 764. BP was down 2.6% to 538. BT was up 1.3% to 322.5  British Air rose 3% to 560.75. GlaxoSmithKline dropped .2% to 1357. Prudential rose 1.1% to 717.5. Reuters rose .4% to 441. Unilever fell .1% to 1401. Vodafone rose 1% to 149.

The DAXX rose .8% to 6,658. Bayer was up .9% to 40.62. Daimler was up .5% to 47.1 DeutscheBank was up .7% to 102.22. Deutsche Telekom was up .6% to 14.71. Siemens was up 2.5% to 77.35.

The CAC 40 rose .7% to 5,559. Alcatel was up 1.1% to 11.45. AXA was up 1.3% to 31.73. France Telecom was up 2.5% to 22.21. ST Micro was up .8% to 14.64. Vivendi was up 1.5% to 30.7.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: January 9, 2007 – 6:32 am in International Markets