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GameFly, Inc. has filed its registration statement with the SEC which will allow the company to come public via an initial public offering. Shares will be sold by GameFly and by certain selling stockholders. The number of shares nor any sort of price range has been set, but for filing purposes it said it would sell up to $50 million in securities. Hopefully the poor IPO market won’t get in the way of this one.
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GameFly Files For IPO (GFLY)
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More Calls For a Crash (DIA, QQQQ, SPY, NBG, GLD)
We are getting more and more caution from technicians and fundamental analysts that bring back the notion and fears of another market correction. Some are expecting far worse than just a correction. The good news is that many of these seem almost implausible, short of the Great Recession coming back even stronger and getting far worse. Some history does not ever get repeated, but those who choose to ignore history often doom themselves to repeat history.
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Today’s Best Market Rumors (2/10/2010)
Updated throughout the day.
Dubai World will seek and extension on payments of $22 billion in debt. (Al Ittihad)
Germany may lead a bailout of Greece (various)
Paulson & Co. has had trouble getting capital for its gold fund (WSJ)
Toyota (TM) ignored safety inquiries about recalled cars as late as last December (Reuters)
Dubai may have to sell the QE II and Canadian circus group Cirque du Soleil to raise money (CNNMoney)
Howard Stern will not leave Sirius XM (SIRI) (The Daily Beast)
AP and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has renewed their partnership (WSJ)
Douglas A. McIntyre
Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ADBE, AINV, CPST, DELL, ENER, LEAP, MEE, TIF, BTU, VVUS, ZBRA)
These are some of this Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning:
Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Apollo Investment (NASDAQ: AINV) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) Raised to Outperform at Northland.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) Started as Market Perform at BMO Capital.
Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Buy at Jesup & Lamont.
Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: ZBRA) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear about top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs and secondary offerings, ongoing day trader and options trader alerts, stock and market rumors, Buffett and guru investor news, M&A and more.
JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 10, 2010
The Prius As A Paper Weight
Toyota (TM) has announced a recall of its 2010 model Prius, the market leader in the global hybrid car sector. The company says that a software glitch causes a brake problem in the car and that the trouble is not a safety issue. Ford (F) recently recalled its Fusion and Mercury Milan hybrids for software upgrades in their brake systems.
The hybrid got a good name among drivers who wanted fuel efficiency and environmentally friendly vehicles. Brake problems in many of the category’s cars may undercut the demand for hybrids and sales may take years to recover. Read Full Story
Baidu’s Tiny Earnings And The Chinese Search Market
Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) impressed Wall St. with its fourth quarter 2009 earnings. Revenue rose 40% to $185 million and net income was up 48% to $63 million. Investors are impressed enough with Baidu’s numbers to give it a market cap of $15 billion, but it is still a tiny company with almost no prospects outside China where it is the No.1 search engine by far based on a market share that is said to be 70%.
China has an internet population of nearly 400 million people so analysts have to wonder why Baidu is as small as it is. Google,which is the leading search company in most Western nations, had revenue of almost $6 billion last quarter. Read Full Story
More Predictions of Dividend Hikes For 2010 (MAT, AWK, XOM, WCRX, AMGN, GPS, MMM, GE, JPM, TWX)
Companies seemed to prefer share buybacks in 2007 and 2008, and maybe part of 2009. Why not, if the stock is cheap? But then 2009 came and many companies were derailed by the recession and that forced many big names to do the unthinkable… dividend cutting. But now things have started adjusting to the new normal and dividend payouts are either being lifted or being brought back closer to their former payout rates. There are many big companies which are likely to hike their dividends, and some which need to start paying dividends.
Mattel, Inc. (NYSE: MAT), American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) are all probably shoe-ins to raise their dividends in 2010. There are two picks we have in the BioHealth arena which need to start paying dividends. Those are Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) and Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) and we have longer explanations about why these companies should start paying a dividend. 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) should be in here as well as we assumed it would keep up with tradition, but the company boosted its payout on Tuesday night as the edits on this were being completed. Interestingly enough, this 3M dividend hike is likely to bring General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) back to the higher dividend payout sooner rather than later.
This is not the first dividend picking session. Just listed on Monday were ten key large companies we expect to see dividend hikes in 2010. While General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was one of those, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is likely to be back at the dividend table sooner than Jamie Dimon might have led you to believe. If you think dividends haven’t been getting bumped up, just take a look at Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and a slew of other large companies that just juiced up their dividend rates in recent trading days.
We have examined company finances, dividend histories, share prices, and yields to make several determinations. Dividend coverage is key, because for companies to grow they cannot pay out 100% of their income. It isn’t as though any of these are REITs. In most of these predictions there is even a new dividend target given as a bogey.
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China Trade Recovers As World Economies Wallow In Debt, Unemployment
China posted more extraordinary trade figures for January. Exports for the month rose 21% and imports were up 86%. Each of the figures is an improvement on the same measurements in late 2009.
Economists claim that the news will put pressure on Beijing to let the value of the yuan rise, but the Chinese government has turned a deaf ear to these requests in the past.
The reason that experts will be puzzled about the trade figures is that it is hard to understand where the Chinese exports are going. Read Full Story
Signs Of The Apocalypse: A Bailout For Europe’s Weaklings
It is more likely by the day that Greece will be helped out of its sovereign debt problems and that Spain and Portugal may, too. The most likely avenue for a rescue as a guarantee of debt by EU nations, led by Germany which is the largest nation in the alliance based on GDP. The other option often discussed is that the IMF would give funds or loan guarantees.
The reasons for a rescue are self-centered. The capital that would flee Greece could affect the entire European economy and the value of the euro. A default on the nation’s sovereign paper would also hurt large banks in the region because many hold Greek bonds. Read Full Story
Media Digest 2/10/2010 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg
Reuters: Honda (NYSE:HMC) expanded its recall by 440,000 as more Toyota (NYSE:TM) models were probed.
Reuters: ArcelorMittal sees a slow improvement in steel production in Q1.
Reuters: IMF aid for Greece may be unavoidable.
Reuters: BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) beat numbers and was cautious about China. Read Full Story
Asia Markets And Europe Open (2/10/2010)
Markets in Asia were higher.
The Nikkei rose .3% to 9,964. Recall news pushed Honda (NYSE:HMC) down but Toyota (NYSE:TM) rose.
The Hang Seng rose .7% to 19,922. China Life (NYSE:LFC) rose.
The Shanghai Composite was up 1.1% to 2,982.
At the open, the FTSE was up .4% to 5,130. The Dax rose .7% to 5,539. The CAC 40 was up .6% to 3,634.
Data from Reuters and MarketWatch.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Honda Takes A Turn With The Firing Squad, Recalls 378,000 Cars
Japan has two large car companies known throughout the world for quality, workmanship, value, and fuel efficiency. Each took several decades to establish its brand in the US. Each burnished its brand by the launch of hybrids which brought in a new generation of eco-conscious car buyers.
Toyota (TM), the larger of the pair, has ruined it reputation, perhaps forever. It has recalled nearly eight million of several of its most popular models from around the world. Almost immediately after, it recalled over 400,000 versions of its 2010 Prius hybrid for brakes problems.
Honda (HMC), the smaller firm, today recalled 378,758 vehicles in the US for possible airbag problems. The models include certain 2001 and 2002 Accord, Civic, Odyssey, CR-V, and selected 2002 Acura TLs. Honda recalled 440,000 cars in July for airbag related issues. Honda said it was aware of 12 individual incidents due to the flaws. Read Full Story
3M Dividend Hike To Pressure GE Dividend Hike (MMM, GE)
While we were getting ready to post our next round of large companies which we think will be hiking their dividends in 2010, one of the companies beat us to the punch. Earlier this week we noted that General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is likely to revisit its dividend with a hike perhaps in the summer. When it cut its dividend last year, 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) raised its dividend. It was as if George Buckley was holding his finger up in the air in the 3M-GE rivalry. It was actually just the company delivering on its trend. Well, 3M just announced that it was hiking its dividend yet again…. for the fifty-second consecutive year.
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Airgas Wants More From Air Products (ARG, APD)
After the Airgas, Inc. (NYSE: ARG) unsolicited offer from Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE: APD) was made, we noticed how there was a premium to the deal’s public price. We even noted that Jefferies had given a potential scenario of $68.00. Now we know why rather than just suspect why. Airgas’ Board of Directors announced that the Air Products’ February 5 proposal AND the previously rejected $62 per share offer grossly undervalue Airgas. Based upon how the release was handled this week and based upon the news reports, it seemed that this first denial of an offer was certain.
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The Cautious Euphoria in Baidu Earnings (BIDU)
We had said in our detailed preview that this was a make or break quarter for Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU). So far it looks like the investment community is taking it as a ‘make it’ quarter. The leader of online search in China posted earnings of $1.80 non-GAAP EPS and $184.7 million in revenue versus Thomson Reuters estimates of $1.68 EPS and $180.02 million in revenues. The company gave guidance for next quarter of $176 million to $181 million in revenues, while Thomson Reuters estimates were $170.23 million. The more important data is in the breakdown of the numbers, as well as what the price means if it stays this high in price.
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Brother Can You Spare A Dime: Open Jobs Plummet
Unemployment may have dropped below 10% last month, but the number only looks good in a vacuum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the bearer of much of the federal government’s bad news over the last two years, said that the number of jobs open in America dropped to 2.5 million in December. That was a sharp decline from 3.2 million in the same month of 2008. Read Full Story
China Agritech Raising Cash (CAGC)
CHINA AGRITECH, INC. (NASDAQ: CAGC) was having a great day with gains north of 7%. But at about 3:09 PM EST we saw a filing from the company.. the S-3… the ’selling securities filing’ that often hits stocks if they have made large runs or developed a larger following. The filing is to raise up to $100,000,000.00 in a mixed securities shelf registration.
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Make or Break Earnings for Baidu (BIDU, GOOG, MSFT, YHOO)
Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is up for earnings later this evening for us, Wednesday morning for, to report earnings. All the media outlets sell you on “this might be the most important earnings season in years” on a misguided basis, but this is going to be one of the most important reports for Baidu. The implications of not just the report, but the guidance, will have ripples for Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) first. The implications will then have ripples for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and then perhaps for the distant Yahoo! Inc.(NASDAQ: YHOO). There are also several issues that have built inside Baidu which will require some attention.
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Euro Banks in PIIGS React to News and Hope (NBG, STD, BBVA, IRE, AIB)
You saw the bank bailout in the U.S. in 2008 to 2009, now it seems that the great bailout is heading the way of Greece if the reports and if the rumors are accurate. As this is the E.U. and a Euro issue, we still caution that until a deal is announced, then it is hearsay. Until it is signed and executed, it is still speculative. Greece has historically bailed itself out the old-fashioned way… by devaluing the Drachma. But now that Greece is on the Euro they no longer have the right to print their own money.
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Gloating At John Thain’s Step Down
From The Atlantic Wire
Business writers are happy John Thain’s second act is a step down. The CEO who engineered a fire sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America and earned fame as the financial Nero who bought a $35,000 toilet while Wall Street burned has returned to life as the executive of CIT–a smaller, less-prestigious, more troubled firm. CIT is a lender to small businesses that went bankrupt in November, knocking out a $2.3 billion government investment. Thain is a wide-cheekboned Goldman alum who oversaw Merrill Lynch’s hemorrhaging final days. Do they hold the key to one another’s resurrection?
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Today’s top tickerspy Indexes Stem Cell Stocks +1.8% Chinese Auto Part... +1.3% Optical Networkin... +0.7% Dotcom Retailer S... +0.4% Ethanol and Biofu... +0.2% 
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