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There is a slew of economic data hitting the tape this week. Friday’s report from the Labor Department on Unemployment and the change in non-Farm Payrolls will dwarf all economic reports. The consensus estimate for November is an expected repeat of 10.2% unemployment from both Bloomberg and from Dow Jones. But the consensus change in non-Farm Payrolls data is currently -125,000 from Dow Jones and -100,000 from Bloomberg. And last week’s data on weekly jobless claims and the updated employment forecast data from the FOMC minutes begs a legitimate question… Can unemployment get back under 10% by year-end?
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Can Unemployment Dip Back Under 10% Before Year-End?
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Boeing (BA) And The FAA: Flying With Dangerous Parts
By Douglas A. McIntyre
Boeing (NYSE:BA) 777 aircraft engines can ice up and stop working. The engines in question are made by Rolls-Royce, and although the problem is very rare, it is dangerous. The 777 is used for very long trips, often over oceans. According to The Wall Street Journal, “The FAA rejected recommendations by the National Transportation Safety Board to order affected Boeing 777 operators to swiftly replace parts on at least one of the two engines on each aircraft.”
The AIG $12 Call (AIG)
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is under far less pressure right at the open than many might have expected. While it settled some of its Hank Greenberg issues last week, the stock was given a fairly ugly analyst call this morning. Sanford Bernstein lowered its under-market price target of an already-ugly $20 down to $12 in a research note. The official rating was ‘reiterated as Underperform’ in this call.
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Sands IPO Continues to Highlight Macau Risks (LVS, WYNN, MPEL, MGM)
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) failed to see any huge boost of its Asian asset IPO in Hong Kong. Shares fell 10% on its debut that raised about $2.5 billion. Sands China Ltd. closed down at 9.32 Hong Kong dollars, but shares had initially dropped under the 9-Dollar handle before recovering. The pricing was at 10.38 in Hong Kong dollars, and this was near the lower-end of its price range.
Wynn Resorts Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) has already gotten its IPO behind it, and frankly that came out when investors were more inclined to nibble on what many might consider a tracking stock rather than a fully independent operation. We had recently noted how investor reactions posed a risk to Las Vegas Sands after the recent Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) earnings report was good but was received coldly.
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Today’s Best Market Rumors (11/30/2009) (ETFC)(AMTD)(AAPL)
Updated throughout the day.
Updated Noon EST: Apple may be manipulating the flash memory market (Barron’s)
Updated 11.58 AM EST: US car companies may post a second month of improved sales (Bloomberg)
The Dubai debt problem could trigger a UAE dirham devaluation (FT Alphaville)
A new Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 3.1 handset with a powerful processor (MacRumors)
Discount brokers E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) and TDAmeritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) will be hurt by the drop off in trading volume. (The Street)
A group with financial support from Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) may buy most of the aircraft leasing operations of AIG (NYSE:AIG) (FT)
You can join our open email distribution list to receive daily emails with analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, market rumors, merger activity, IPOs and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and guru activity and more.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Top Day Trader Alerts (NVAX, BIDU, SVA, X)
These are this Monday’s top day trader and active trader alert stocks. We have more details on the gains and ranges with added color via a link through to VSInvestor.com for each stock:
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is up 6.6% and was actually the top percentage gainer in early indications.
Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is down less than 1% on an analyst downgrade when shares are almost at 52-week highs.
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: SVA) is up almost 2% on a positive analyst call after last week’s news was muted.
US Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) is up almost 4% on the Goldman Sachs’ conviction buy call.
You can join our open email distribution list to receive daily emails with analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, market rumors, merger activity, IPOs and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and guru activity and more.
JON C. OGG
Government Spending, Taxes and the Constitution
John Tamny of Forbes
The U.S. Constitution’s 10th Amendment is arguably the most important of all the amendments in the brilliant document that helped shape the United States. The 10th amendment made plain that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”
What the 10th amendment tells us is that the powers of the federal government are quite limited, and that any powers not enumerated to Washington in the first nine amendments automatically revert to the states. This was the founders’ way of keeping the federal government small so that individuals could choose the kind of government they wanted based on the state in which they chose to live.
Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (ANF, AGAM, BIDU, DE, GENZ, HBC, SVA, USB, X, FCX)
These are this morning’s top pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
AGA Medical (AGAM) Started as Buy at Citigroup; Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo; Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Deere & Co. (DE) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Genzyme (GENZ) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
HSBC Holdings plc (HBC) Raised to Buy at BofA Merrill Lynch; Started as Outperform at FBR.
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) Reiterated Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
US BAncorp (USB) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
US Steel (X) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs; replaces Freeport McMoRan (FCX).
You can join our open email distribution list to receive daily emails with analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, market rumors, merger activity, IPOs and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and guru activity and more.
JON C. OGG
A Brand New Apple (AAPL) iPhone-On-Steroids May Hit Market In Mid-2010
Imagine an Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone with a very powerful processor that will work on both the AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon Wireless networks. Such a device would almost certainly broaden the iPhone’s appeal instantly. Verizon has more than 80 million subscribers to its wireless service in the US. And, a powerful processor would move the iPhone even closer to being a portable PC replacement. Read Full Story
Somali Pirates Seize Oil Tanker
Somali pirates have a new business. They hope to corner the market in crude.
The Greek-owned Maran Centaurus, which is carrying oil from Saudi Arabia to the US, was hijacked in the ocean off East Africa. The oil on the 300,000-ton ship may be worth over $100 million.
The action is not likely to do anything to affect the world’s oil supply or oil prices. Read Full Story
Americans Give Up The Credit Card For The Holidays
Just over one-quarter of shoppers who made purchases over the Thanksgiving weekend used credit cards. Thirty-nine percent used cash and the balance of the shoppers used debit cards which are a cash-equivalent, according to survey conducted for Reuters by America’s Research Group.
The news is bad for retailers. Read Full Story
The Mortgage Mess: Government To Push Private Sector To Do What Government Cannot Do
Congress and the Administration put a $787 billion stimulus package into place on the assumption that its many programs will supply capital to strategically important industries. The ultimate goal was to increase employment within the private sector. Infrastructure, energy grid, and broadband are among the industries which are receiving extraordinary sums from the government and those industries are expected to do aggressive hiring. Read Full Story
The Vicious Competition For Peak Oil
There has been a heated argument for the last several years about when the world will start to run out of oil. The rate of oil production, after more than a century of drilling, may have already peaked or it may peak in a decade. Everything in oil production will be downhill after that. The Observer recently pointed out that, “Even the Paris-based IEA admits that the world still needs to find the equivalent of four new Saudi Arabias to feed increasing demand at a time when the depletion rate in old fields of the North Sea and other major producing areas is running at 7% year on year.” Read Full Story
Media Digest 11/30/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg
Reuters: UAE shares fell on Dubai debt problem news.
Reuters: The Treasury will meet with mortgage companies to try to get them to accelerate loan modifications.
Reuters: Holiday shoppers did not use credit cards as much as in the past.
Reuters: Shoppers are increasing the use of e-commerce. Read Full Story
Asia Markets And Europe Open (11/30/2009)
Markets in Asia were sharply higher.
The Nikkei rose 2.9% to 9,346. Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MTU) fell.
The Hang Seng rose 3.3% to 21,822. HSBC (NYSE:HBC) rose.
The Shanghai Composite was up 3.2% to 3,195.
At the open, the FTSE rose and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) and BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) were both higher. The Dax was up .5% to 5,174 nnd the CAC 40 rose .1% to 3,725.
Data from MarketWatch and Reuters
Douglas A. McIntyre
Amazon (AMZN) And Apple (AAPL) Big Black Friday Online Winners
Most people would guess that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) would do well this holiday season–better than their respective competitors.
Thanksgiving e-commerce traffic is that the online sales site and consumer electronics paragon have behaved as expected.
According to online research firm Hitwise, “The top visited Retail Website on Black Friday 2009 was Amazon receiving 13.55 % of U.S. visits among the top 500 Retail Web sites.” The Apple Store had the largest increase in visits among the Top Twenty sites, up 110%. Mac, iPhone, and iPod sales may be better than most analysts expect. Read Full Story
American Consumers Spent $41.2 Billion On Black Friday Weekend!
The “official” numbers on Black Friday retail activity were mixed and the mixture did little to help analysts have a reasonable picture of what the rest of the holidays will bring.
The data from the National Retail Federation showed 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 172 million last year. However, average spending dropped to $343.31 per person from $372.57 a year ago. Total spending reached an estimated $41.2 billion. The figures include spending for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and a projection for Sunday. The information is based on a poll of 4,985 consumers. Read Full Story
A Mediocre Start For Retail On Black Friday
The fears about 2009 holiday sales may be coming true. Early research shows that retail activity was flat and in some regions fell sharply.
ShopperTrak reports that dollar sales for the first day of the holiday retail season were only up .5% to $10.66 billion. But, in the population-heavy Northeast they fell 4.9%. Read Full Story
Bernanke Attacks Dodd And Paul Proposals To Weaken Fed
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has written an opinion piece for WashingtonPost.com attacking proposals being supported by Rep Ron Paul and Sen Chris Dodd to strip the Federal Reserve of most of its powers.
He writes “Notably, some leading proposals in the Senate would strip the Fed of all its bank regulatory powers. And a House committee recently voted to repeal a 1978 provision intended to protect monetary policy from short-term political influence.” Read Full Story
Dubai: Who Defaults Next?
The Wall Street Journal points out that the cost of insuring sovereign debt for countries including Bulgaria and Hungary moved up sharply after Dubai announced a “standstill” on paying many of its debt obligations.
The financial world is waiting to see whether another shoe will drop. The value of commercial real estate is down in many large nations around the world. That was a likely cause of some of Dubai’s problems because of its investments in the real estate sector. Read Full Story
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Today’s top tickerspy Indexes Chinese Auto Part... +6.8% Chinese Solar Sto... +2.4% Geothermal Stocks +1.9% Medical Labs and ... +1.4% Japan Stocks and ... +1.4% 
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