Daily Archives: March 1, 2007

A Market Close & Possible CNBC Guest Appearance

Today we were likely saved by bargain hunting after the DJIA was down some 200 points right after the open, yet we barely closed down 30 points after having a brief moment of being positive.  This is not characteristic of any sort of implosion in the market and it was very characteristic of what can happen after a 5 to 6 month rally.  I also can’t keep from thinking how this brought the markets finally back on sale for the pullback everyone has been hoping for and the global economy doesn’t feel drastically different than it did last week.  That takes the "Japanese Yen Carry-Trade" into consideration and it takes into consideration an emerging market economy stock market basket that still needs some more profit taking.  My crystal ball is actually in the shop, so the future isn’t as clear as before I dropped it off for a tune-up.

Over the weekend I opined that record margin borrowing, a VERY low Volatility Index (the Vix), a drop in short selling, and the fact that we had run up so much in the markets would require everyone to be in Investor’s Nirvana.  I had no idea that a pervasive pullback was coming that soon.

Right after the market closed on Tuesday, we posted our full list of 20 Defensive Stocks for a Crummy Market, and this was actually the "first line of defense stocks."  On Wednesday we ran a second tier list of Defensive Stocks since the recovery that everyone was hoping for was not so robust.  This was a list of 15, although some of these could have easily been on the first line of defensive stocks.

Shares of Dell (DELL) are down 2% in after-hours to $22.51 on its ongoing earnings and restructuring issues.  This one is going to take time to turn around but Michael Dell didn’t come back 100% like he has just so he could be criticized for 18 to 24 months. 

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A, BRK/B) showed profits up a massive 29% for 2006 as no major storms wiped away all the insurance and reinsurance profits.  Interestingly enough, Mr. Buffett even noted that "atmospheric changes" could pose a threat to insurance returns.  Some of his newer stock holdings listed were as follows: USG (USG), ConocoPhillips (COP), J&J (JNJ), and USBancorp (USB); but most of these were actually known (particularly USG, one of our BAIT SHOP members).

Tonight I am scheduled as a guest on CNBC’s "On The Money" segment between 7:40 PM and 8:00 PM EST along with Deal Breaker’s John Carney  and Eddy Elfenbein of Crossing Wall Street.   

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC and can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Dell Earnings: Half Empty or Half Full?

Dell (DELL-NASDAQ) posted earnings today, sort of.  The stock traded up 0.7% to $23.01 in regular trading for the day, despite the fact that no one was looking for much great news and despite the fact that Michael Dell was not doing a regular conference call.   The company posted $0.30 EPS & Revenues of $14.4 Billion ($0.29 & $14.9B est.), plus it ended the quarter with $12.5 Billion in cash and investments.  Earnings were helped by a suspension of many employee bonuses (+$0.06); extra ongoing investigation costs (-$0.03); and a one-time real estate gain (+$0.01).  So that would be $0.26 EPS from operation on a normalized basis.

Michael Dell’s comments:  "We are disappointed with the company’s results, but what matters is our future plan of action. We are systematically moving to increase efficiencies, improve execution and transform the company….  Our business model will become more aligned with the needs of our customers, which will improve their experience and yield improved growth and profitability for the long-term…. We won’t achieve our goals overnight, but we will achieve our goals… We will be known again for strong operating and financial performance and a great experience for our customers. But it will take time to realize the future benefits of the improvements we are making today."

The company said it is moving quickly to strengthen its management team, unify business units, and eliminate redundancies, while redeploying resources to drive greater value for customers. The company also said it is moving to shorten product development cycles, make decisions closer to the customer, and develop new approaches to manufacturing and distribution to better reach and serve customers in fast-growing and emerging markets.  What I want to know is this:  Does this mean "retail disribution channels" too?

International shipments exceeded US shipments for the first time, although there was a large drop in desktops by 18% and mobile computing bu 2%.  Servers accounted for $1.5 Billion in sales, storage was $0.6 Billion, enterprise "P{latinum Plus" in enhanced services was $1.5 Billion.

The company warns on margins in coming quarters: The company is focused on transformational efforts that are designed to yield improving operational results, customer experience, financial performance and shareholder value. These investments in the coming quarters should produce a more optimal balance of growth, profitability and liquidity over the long term. In the next several quarters, however, the company expects that growth and margins will continue to be under pressure as it implements and refines these actions.

Dell also now has until MAY 4 to submit additional information to NASDAQ for its listing status.  Shares of DELL initially popped up by over 2% before the street read the details on the EPS items, the margin warning, the longer-term restructuring, and the drop in PC’s by 18%.  Shares are now down 1.5% at $22.65 in after hours.  This one is a horserace so trying to call this one ahead of tomorrow and ahead of research calls is probably premature.  Wall Street should have been braced for this though, and I could even make the argument that this wasn’t nearly as bad as it could have been. 

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club

Some very large companies made today’s 52-week low list.

Constellation Brands (STZ) The large distiller said 2008 earnings would be poor, and poor enough to send the stock down 15% today to $20.04. The 52-week high: $29.17.

IndyMac Bancorp (NDE) Not a sub-prime lender but the slow housing market is hitting this home lending operation. Down to over 6% on profit warning to $32.16 and off more after hours to $31.60. The 52-week high: $50.50.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) This newspaper company seems to want to stay on the list. Recently reported that January advertising sales are down. Off another 1% today to $36.99. Perhaps the CEO will make the 24/7 list of chiefs who have to go. The 52-week high: $55.66.

AVANIR Pharma. (AVNR) Problems with FDA on approval of Zenvia™ as a treatment for involuntary emotional expression disorder. Another very ugly day with stock down over 17% to $1.54. The 52-week high: $18.14.

Horizon Offshore (HOFF) The company provides construction for offshore oil and gas sites. Company reported that revenue fell in Q4 06. Stock was pounded down over 15% to $14.03. The 52-week high: $24.

Transmeta (TMTA) Yesterday’s drop after poor earnings was not enough. Stock in microprocessing intellectual property business dropped another 6% to $.67. Got back a little after hours. The 52-week high: $2.37.

Amgen (AMGN) A big surprise to see one of the great growth stocks of the last decade on the list. In 1996, AMGN was a $13 stock. Hit $77 over the last 12 months, but today reached a 52-week low of $61.70. The biotech’s big anemia drug, Aranesp, is facing safety issues.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Toyota Keeps A Quick Pace

Toyota (TM) sales in the US rose 12% to 187,330, maintaining a pace the US car companies simply can’t match.

Sales of the core Toyota brand rose 13% to 164,812. Lexus sales lagged, up 6.6% to 22,518. Sales of the Prius hybrid were up 87% to 12,227.

Guess green is the way to go.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Market Comment From The Stock Masters

Stock Mastery - Daily Market Commentary by The Stockmasters
Thursday – March 1st, 2007

Stock Tips The Stock Market has been up and down worse than that on and off-again 11th grade girlfriend you had with a Johnny Mactemperament to match. Makes you feel like John McEnroe did back when he would go on a rage back in the day (watch this clip). I’m sure most of you are now aware, this recent drop in the market is not the worst we have ever seen and we all knew it was coming. Today’s slight comeback is due to an upbeat assessment of manufacturing activity and has eased some fears of the economy grinding to a halt. Ben Bernake knows what he’s doing, and he’s steering America on the right course with his forecast of the U.S. economy to continue to grow moderately. So if you are feeling like ol’ Johnny Mac, take it easy, buy some dividend stocks, look for the fallen fruit stocks, and take a smoke break. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said todayThe US economy is ‘healthy’ and transitioning to a soft landing after blockbuster growth in early part of last year. Smoke em’ if you got em and just relax Masters.

Stock Tips New 52-week low for iRobot (IRBT) today. Don’t forget that to consider iRobot’s intellectual property – all their wonderful patents, brilliant inventions, and technology. Sure they haven’t built R2-D2 or C-3PO but they have basically created their own Droid Factory that is generating revenue and constantly evolving new and better technologies. Read the insight and action figure perspective here at the Masters.

http://www.thestockmasters.com/index.asp

Is it over for U.S. Automakers? Say it ain’t so

From The Stock Masters

Is there hope America? Today Ford said its U.S. auto sales fell 13.5% in February and DaimlerChrysler posted a 7.7% decline. Meanwhile, Honda said its U.S. sales rose 3.2% on stronger sales of its trucks. Trucks for crying out loud, that’s Ford’s bread and butter. Wall Street expects Toyota Motor Corp. to take Ford’s No. 2 spot in U.S. sales this year, after its sales surpassed Ford’s in two months in 2006. The Masters turn to the BBC for an outside perspective of our American Auto Industry. Before you think these stocks are selling at bargain prices, do all the homework. Maybe Ford could spice up its Ad campaign and get Lita Ford to help out. Same last name? Bad joke we know, but it’s still funny. Article continued at the BBC…

http://www.thestockmasters.com/index.asp

Cramer Wanted More Panic-Selling

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he wished it was worse to shakeout more of the weaker longs to create a better bounce and rally.  There was no major panic but at -200 DJIA points there must have been some panic.  Cramer thinks the selling won’t be over entirely until a big subprime company goes under.
Cramer thinks one of the subprime companies could blow up in a few days, but they haven’t shown the financials and they haven’t even started eliminhating dividends yet.  Cramer again was positive on T.Rowe Price (TROW), Ralph Lauren (RL), Coca-Cola (KO).  Cramer likes IAC/Interactive (IACI) for when the smoke clears.

GM: The Bright Spot in US Autos

General Motors (GM-NYSE) shares just launched on the FEB auto numbers.  It was assumed of a drop, yet the total US sales rise was listed as 3.4% to 311,763 cars and trucks.  Retail sales made up for fleet declines.  Expectations were for drop almost to the tune where Ford and Chrysler sales came in.  Its precious truck/SUV sales posted a 7.4% gain and the cars slid just over 3%.

It is also decreasing production to 1.175 million cars and trucks in the quarter.

GM shares are now up almost 2% at $32.75.  Shares of Ford (F) are still down 0.4% and shares of DaimlerChrysler (DCX) are still down 0.8%.  Maybe things aren’t as bad as the market thought.  GM is still a DJIA component.  The DJIA is barely down on the day now.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Cramer: Yen Carry Trade is Noise

On today’s WALL STREET CONFIDENTIAL on TheStreet.com, Jim Cramer discussed the Yen-carry trade and the weakness.   He noted how the yen carry-trade has been around forever, where traders borrow at 0.5% in Japan to invest at higher rates elsewhere.  He thinks the Yen carry-trade potentially blowing up is all noise.  This drop is about the slow-down from subprime, from SunTrust (STI) warning, from other fresh warnings, he doesn’t like tech still.  If you look at what caused the fed to cut after the fact it will sound like the end of the world, but Cramer still thinks they’ll have to cut rates.  He again notes the food and beverage stocks as the group that is trying to bottom first.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Ford’s FEB Auto Sales Down, With an Explanation

Ford just released -13% year over year auto sales but the good news is that truck sales were only down 8.8% of that and the RETAIL sales were only down 8%.  The reason it is ‘good’ is really that it is less bad since the trucks and SUV’s are their major focus and are where Ford plans to generate its profits.

Rental sales were down 30%, but this is supposed to go away entirely and that noted as roughly half of the decline. Demand for new mid-size sedans was noted as strong: Ford Fusion up 46%, Mercury Milan up 22%, and Lincoln MKZ up 21%.  New crossover vehicle Ford Edge up 43% compared with January and Lincoln MKX up 38 percent.

February inventories were 175,000 units lower than a year ago. In the first quarter 2007, the company plans to produce 740,000 vehicles (200,000 cars & 540,000 trucks), unchanged from the previously announced plan.  Ford plans to produce 770,000 vehicles (220,000 cars & 550,000 trucks). In the second quarter 2006, the company produced 897,000 vehicles (328,000 cars & 569,000 trucks). Over 60% of the year-to-year decline in second quarter reduction reflects discontinued products and the company’s planned reduction in sales to daily rental companies.

Shares of Ford (F) have not really changed since the release.  Shares are down $0.04 on the day at $7.87, but they have been as low as $7.65.  In a down market or in a whipping market traders appear unwilling to make any major auto gambles on a monthly auto reading not being quite as weak as they thought.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Chrysler Sales Down, But Not Off The Cliff

DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX-NYSE/ADR) has reported total group sales of 191,810 passenger vehicles in the U.S. for February 2007, an 8 percent decrease compared to February 2006.  Chrysler Group, consisting of the Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands, posted sales of 174,506 vehicles in the U.S., also a decrease of 8 percent.

One note worth mention is that the fuel-efficient models posted gains: 2008 Dodge Avenger (5,205 units sold in February), Dodge Caliber (9,900 units) and the Jeep Compass (4,071 units).  Mercedes-Benz USA (MBUSA) reported sales of 17,304 new vehicles for the month of February.

DCX shares have hardly reacted to this so far, and in a whipping market that might not be that unexpected.  The numbers are reportedly not quite as bad as what was expected, so maybe investors won’t have to fear Chrysler sales dropping off of a cliff while Daimler is out shopping the company.  DCX shares are down 1.2% at $67.25 and have been down all morning.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IM: Ingram Micro’s Charge is a True One-Timer

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

We have been very critical of companies taking charges and asking investors to ignore them. However, the charge Small Cap Watch List and Mid Cap Watch List member Ingram Micro announced in an 8K Filing this morning is a good example of when investors should look past the charge.

Read More »

EAS: Energy East Earnings Ease

Bt William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

It just goes to show – given a mild enough winter even stable utilities can fall short. Case in point: Small Cap Watch List member Energy East (EAS):

Earnings per share basic for the 12 months ended December 31, 2006, were $1.77 while earnings per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, were 53 cents.Earnings per share basic for the 12 months ended December 31, 2006, increased 2 cents as compared to earnings per share for the 12 months ended December 31, 2005 of $1.75. The increase in earnings per share was primarily due to higher margins on electric sales of 18 cents and 7 cents from a lower effective income tax rate and differences in the 2005 filed tax return compared to the 2005 book tax expense. Earnings per share also increased by 5 cents due to a write-off in the fourth quarter of 2005 related to the termination of operations of the South Glens Falls generating facility. These increases were partially offset by higher storm related repair costs of 11 cents, higher bad debt expense of 7 cents and 5 cents for the write-off of unamortized issuance costs resulting from the redemption of our trust preferred securities in July.

Consensus estimates called for $1.46 billion in revenue and $0.56 in EPS for the quarter. If global warming is for real they may actually be in trouble. However, with a median analyst rating of “Underperform” and a 4.7% dividend yield, it will probably be easier for the company to exceed expectations than to truly disappoint.

http://www.stockmarketbeat.com/

Global ETF Overbought/Oversold

From Ticker Sense

As shown by the red dots that represent where the ETF was trading 5 days ago, markets have come in quite a bit.  Most of the global ETFs that were overbought are now at the bottom or below their trading ranges.  Tread carefully until we see some stabilization.  The best opportunities come when the ETF or stock is at the bottom of its range but to the right (higher) of the red dot (where it was 5 days ago).

Globos301

Oboskey_33

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/

5% And Counting

From Ticker Sense

Well after seven days of weakness, the market has now put in a 5% correction (on an intra-day basis).  Will this be enough, as has been the case through the entire bull market, or are we finally in the middle of the market’s first ten percent correction of this bull market.  Only time will tell.  Note though, how the S&P 500 did test its lows (actually some could argue that it failed to hold) from Tuesday, before bouncing.

Sp_500_intraday

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/

ISM Manufacturing Index for February 2007; The PMI Returns to the Black

The Institute for Supply Management just released its monthly manufacturing Report on Business survey (the old PMI), and the results came in with a slightly-positive reading of 52.3, up from 49.3 in January.  The report seems to have provided for a small relief rally in the markets; the 52.3 number was a slight upside surprise, but considering the consensus figure was the all-too-lazy 50, basically nobody had the foresight or conviction to make a real prediction. 

The overall PMI just can’t seem to get back to the mid-50’s and higher levels seen throughout the majority of 2006.  Still, it was an overall favorable report, with index readings up across the board from January, when many sub-indexes fell to levels considered representative of a contracting economy. 

Order Backlog showed the highest increase of any PMI components, jumping 8% from January’s 43.5 reading to 51.5 in Feb.

There were two major signs of concern in the report:

First, the index for Customer Inventories (as measured by manufacturers) notched up higher again to 53 from 52 in January, so the inventory trend seen in yesterday’s Chicago report seems intact, though tamer.  Inventory levels had been in the favorable readings category of below 50 for over five straight years before November 2006, so the trend forming here will be an important one to follow for the upcoming months in terms of its length and magnitude.

Secondly, the Prices paid index spiked to 59, up 6% from last month.  Higher prices being paid here generally get passed right down the line.

Industries reporting growth included Apparel, Petroleum & Coal Products, Plastics & Rubber Products, Computer & Electric Products, and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.  Of the major commodities covered, the only one listed as “in short supply” was electric components. 

Ryan Barnes

Markets Tossing Out Even Defensive Stocks

We won’t try to peg the exact market reading for you, but the market is going far further than defensive right out of the chute this morning.  The DJIA had hit -200 points so it is likely that trading curbs are in effect.  The Japanese vice minister’s comments about Japanese rates rising further is perhaps the largest contributor to this sell-off. but right now the markets appear to have sold off almost everything.

After looking at the 20 First Line Defensive Stocks and even the Second Line of 15 Defensive Stocks we outlined, even those are down in a SELL EVERYTHING mentality that started brewing pre-market.  The down volume is drastic out of the chute.  As a reminder, if we get a stabilization these are the ones that should get the first "buy safety" money in theory.  Theory is theory, so don’t expect guarantees. 

Out of the top 20 first line defensive stocks for a crummy market, only 2 out of 20 of them are actually up right after the open. Here are the market levels at 9:44 AM EST:
DJIA       12,097.19; Down 171.44 (1.40%)
NASDAQ  2,367.03; Down 49.12 (2.03%)
S&P500   1,384.14; Down 22.68 (1.61%)
10YR-Bond        4.52%; Down 0.03%

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The Curious Case Of Ciena’s Sell Off

Ciena (CIEN) reported what appeared to be strong earnings. Revenue rose 37% from the quarter last year to $165 million. But, the sequential increase from the immediately previous quarter was only 3%. The company forecast sequential growth for the current quarter as low as 5%.

Ciena makes equipment for the telecom industry and its is the type of product that helps them build out "triple play" services with voice, broadband, and TV.

So, the market’s question is why Ciena, a company in an industry at the peak of its build-out, is growing so slowly. The company has not supplied an answer, but the stock is off 9% before the market, and that means Wall St. doesn’t think Ciena is getting its share of the boom.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Deciphering Sears’ Earnings

Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD-NASDAQ) has reported net income of $820 million, or $5.33 diluted EPS, for the quarter ended February 3, 2007.  This compares with net income of $648 million, or $4.03 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter ended January 28, 2006. For the quarter, total revenues increased $0.2 billion to $16.3 billion for the 14 weeks ended February 3, 2007, as compared to total revenues of $16.1 billion for the 13 weeks ended January 28, 2006; but if you interpolate the extra week counted in this cycle you’ll see that this is essentially flat on a real revenue basis.

For the fiscal year ended February 3, 2007, net income was $1.5 billion, or $9.57 diluted EPS (after $0.58 accounting change charges) compared with net income of $858 million, or $5.59 per diluted share, for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2006.

Sears is saying that margin improved in apparel and this drove profits at both K-Mart and Sears.  There are 4 items to note in the earnings: 1) a $27 million pre-tax loss ($17 million after-tax or $0.11 per diluted share) on the Company’s total return swap investments; 2) pre-tax gains of $50 million ($31 million after-tax or $0.20 per diluted share) on sale of assets; 3) a tax benefit of $25 million (or $0.17 per diluted share) related to the resolution of certain income tax matters and 4) a pre-tax charge of approximately $74 million ($45 million after-tax or $0.29 per diluted share) related to an unfavorable verdict in connection with a pre-merger legal matter.

Same store sales are still in decline.  For the quarter, domestic comparable store sales declined 3.1% in the aggregate, with Sears Domestic comparable store sales declining 4.9% and Kmart comparable store sales declining 0.9%. For the year, domestic comparable store sales declined 3.7% in the aggregate, with Sears Domestic comparable store sales declining 6.1% and Kmart comparable store sales declining 0.6%.  For this it blames competition and lower transaction items and it also said a sales decline in home appliances from a housing slowdown are contributing to the drop.

As of the quarter-end it held $4.0 Billion in cash and equivalents.  For the year, the Company used its cash actively: $816 million for share repurchases, $474 million in capital expenditures, $318 million in pension contributions, $282 million to purchase additional interests in Sears Canada, and debt payments, net of new borrowings of $250 million.  It actually only repurchased 100,000 shares in the last quarter, so this is perhaps a slowing of share buybacks because of higher stock prices (says $165 average buy price). It still has $604 million it can use for future share buybacks under the current plan.

Shares are down about $3.00 at $177.25 pre-market.  We’ll see if Cramer comes out with his usual long-term endorsement featuring Eddie Lampert as teh next Warren Buffett.  Trying to break apart these numbers out of Sears is much more convoluted since thgey are part equity hedge fund and part major retailer, and this stock is subject to ups and downs after earnings or news.  Perhaps this is why when we ran one of our break-up valuation screens on the company our numbers came back with $205.00 on one method of calculation and $325.00 on another calculation.  That’s what makes a ballgame.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

McDonald’s And Starbucks: The Coffee Wars

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that McDonald’s (MCD) will be offering lattes and other high-end coffees soon. And the pricing will be about $1 below comparable products at Starbucks (SBUX)

Bad news for Starbucks. While none of the coffee shop chains smaller than SBUX was ever likely to dent its rapidly rising same-store and revenue growth, McDonald’s has the store network to do some damage. And, a number of McDonald’s are open 24 hours a day.

Moving Starbucks’ stock up just got a lot harder.

Douglas A. McIntyre