Daily Archives: March 7, 2007

Cramer Interviews Verifone’s CEO

Cramer briefly interviewed the CEO of Verifone (PAY) that blew away numbers and has also sold off with the market.  The CEO Douglas Bergeron was available for an interview and this was one Cramer was going to run tomorrow as a name that should not be down.  Cramer likes this for the international operations and he now likes the wireless pay technology and navigatioin software that is being implemented in taxi cabs in Philadelphia and NYC.  They also pointed to Mexico City and the CEO thinks that could be several hundred thousand points globally down the road.  Cramer said this one has only pulled back because of the market.

Jon Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer’s Solar Play

On MAD MONEY tonight, Cramer also went on a bottom-hunting expedition for damaged stocks rather than damaged companies.  Yesterday he touted General Cable (BGC) but his pick tonight is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR-NASDAQ).

FirstSolar (FSLR) is the best solar company out there because they can generate more power for less money than its competitors.  After a big sell-off you want companies that just had a great quarter, and this one is not likely to show a big drop in the near future.  It wouldn’t be down if it wasn’t for the stock market sell-off according to Cramer.  They posted $0.12 EPS last week instead of $0.07 estimates on much higher revenues and guidance.  This one jumped $20 before the big sell-off, but it is 10% off the highs and you can buy a hot stock for less than it is worth.  This company offers non-subsidized products and makes money, unlike other solar companies here in the US.  Its cost is 60% per watt of the other companies because they use their own process rather than silicon wafer.  It has 40% margins and it should keep beating the street estimates.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer’s 2 New Picks That Didn’t Fall

Tonight on Cramer’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer was reviewing some stocks that went unscathed through the market sell-off.  When the next sell-off occurs, these are the ones you want to flock to.  Cramer says the new highs are far from random and they can ride out the next storm.  The PBM (Pharmacy Benefit Managers) and Tire companies that are hitting new high lists. The best of breed in each are Medco Health (MHS) and Goodyear Tire (GT).

Medco (MHS-NYSE) is one Cramer likes because they help big companies save on healthcare costs.  They make money when drugs come off patent and they can save money.  Last year was a big patent expiration year and 2008 will be another. It has big cash flow and has a mountain of cash.  The one Cramer likes even more that he has bought is Express Scripts (ESRX) that is in a biding war for Caremark.  If it doesn’t win the Caremark deal he thinks they’ll do a huge buyback.

As far as Goodyear Tire (GT-NYSE), it has slashed benefits and cut pensions to increase savings.  The workers there aren’t happy about this but it is good for shareholders.  Merrill Lynch just raised it and he thinks it’s going up.  CRT is using a $39 target on a turnaround.

In a call-in Jim Cramer again said on AMD (AMD-NYSE) that he really can’t see a reason as to why the stock needs to exist.  Their decision to go into a price war with Intel was a death sentence and the only thing that can help them if if Intel gets nabbed over anti-trust issues.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club

CV Therapeutics Inc (CVTX) The company announced mixed results from a late-stage study on its angina drug Ranexa. The stock dropped to $8.99. The 52-week high was $25.36.

Novavax, Inc (NVAX) Down to $2.77. The biopharmaceutical company has a high of $8.39.

TranSwitch (TXCC) Back again. Dropped to $1.16. The 52-week high is $2.85. Company still not recovering from poort Q4 results and large staff cut.

Powerwave Technologies (PWAV) Now down to $4.75. The 52-week high was $15.10. The wireless communications infrastructure specialist is still suffering from poor results in the last quarter.

RealNetworks (RNWK) Pioneer in audio and video players for PC, now offer music store and online games. Hits $7.60 down from a 52-week high of $12.08. Forecasts for current year were poor. Company seems to be overwhelmed by competitors like iTunes.

Hypercom (HYC) Provider of electronic payment technology has loss in last quarter. Shares drop to $4.84. The 520week high was $11.16.

Conseco (CNO) posts fourth quarter loss and drops to $18.60. The 52-week high was $25.95.

Vonage (VG) The "worst IPO in history" VoIP provider can’t get a break as cable companies suck up customers and leave Vonage the crumbs. Drops to $5.02 after an IPO high of $17.25.

Micron (MU) Down to $11.41 from 52-week high of $18.65. NAND flash memory prices are collapsing. And, that worries Wall St.

Douglas A. McIntyre

TiVo Wants to Fast Forward

TiVo (TIVO-NASDAQ) has posted its quarterly results.  Keep in mind that this is also the day it launched its "Unbox" service expansion with Amazon.com (AMZN-NASDAQ).  Service and Technology revenues increased 22% year-over-year to $57.4 million in the fourth quarter; Net loss was $18.7 million in the fourth quarter, compared to a net loss of $21.1 million in the year-ago quarter; Adjusted EBITDA loss was $14.2 million in the fourth quarter, compared to a loss of $19.9 million in the year-ago quarter; TiVo-Owned subscriptions increased 16% year-over-year to end the year at 1.7 million.

In the fourth quarter, TiVo-Owned subscription gross additions were 163,000, increasing overall TiVo-Owned subscriptions to 1.7 million. As expected, TiVo reported a net decline to 2.7 million DIRECTV TiVo subscriptions during the period as DIRECTV deployed fewer TiVo boxes and as there was continued churn of existing DIRECTV TiVo subscriptions. Cumulative total subscriptions as of January 31, 2007 were up slightly from last quarter to 4.4 million.  It is also not going to focus on mail-in rebates any longer.

TiVo plans to advertise throughout the year with a far more extensive effort to educate the market on TiVo’s brand and the service features.  It aims for its financial model will move us significantly closer to Adjusted EBITDA break-even for Fiscal Year 2008 and improve the perception of the Company’s long-term financial prospects.  The company will focus this year on launching a lower-priced, mass appeal High Definition product.  Its service on Comcast is expected to launch in its initial market in the near-future and Cox is targeted for initial market availability later this year.  The company ended with $128.76 million in cash and equivalents and its total liabilities are carried at $194.95 million.

Steve Sordello, CFO of TiVo: "It is TiVo’s goal to continue to invest for long-term growth, while improving our bottom-line performance. To that end, we plan to continue to invest aggressively in our product while transitioning from hardware subsidies to a more advertising driven approach toward subscription acquisition. We expect this will lead us to get significantly closer to Adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the full-year Fiscal 2008. This goal assumes TiVo-Owned gross adds roughly equivalent to last year and accounts for current expectations related to litigation costs and currently expected R&D levels."  For the first quarter of Fiscal 2008, TiVo anticipates service and technology revenues in the range of $57 million to $58 million, a net loss of $4 million to net income breakeven, and an Adjusted EBITDA profit of $1 to $5 million.  TIVO had a market cap of $594 million as of the close.

Mr. Rogers, CEO of TIVO: "TiVo made substantial progress in the fourth quarter in achieving a number of major milestones that will help set the stage for a strong 2008 Fiscal Year."

The stock closed up 3.3% at $6.14 and it has a $594 million martket cap; it is up 2% at $6.27 in after hours and has traded between $5.05 and $9.49 over the last 52-weeks.  TIVO’s short interest was 13.3 million shares as of February, which is 8.5 days-to-cover more than 15% of its float.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Mamma.com Posts Actual Income

Mamma.com (MAMA-NASDAQ) just gapped up after posting its quarterly results. Its Q4 revenues increased 118% to $3.57 million due to a significant increase in search advertising revenues, new software licensing contracts and increase in customized development and maintenance support, year-end revenues were at $9.60 million.  Its Cash, cash equivalents and temporary investments at $7.97 million.  The company even posted net earnings of $420,175, or $0.03 EPS.  Its net loss for the year was -$0.30 on EPS, down from -$0.47 in 2005.

Here is the benefactor for it: The increase was due to improvement in search revenues of $1,430,369 mostly due to expanded distribution and new clients for $1,204,915 and by Copernic’s contribution for the entire quarter in 2006 of $225,454. The Company executed new software licensing contracts which mainly accounted for its revenue increase of $694,511 as well as an increase in customized development and maintenance of $219,303.  Subsequent to the year end, two officers resigned from their positions and Mamma.com will pay most of the termination costs of CDN$550,000 in Q1 2007, it will change the duration of option agreements and allow accelerated vesting options for one of the officers. These changes will represent an additional non-cash item expense of approximately $270,000.

Martin Bouchard, President/CEO: "During the fourth quarter, we have significantly increased our search revenues by expanding our search network and by signing new clients thus generating our best quarterly results this year. We also executed new software licensing contracts of our award-winning desktop search technology. In addition, we have launched two new specialized search engines: Mamma Jobs and Mamma Videos. And, finally, we have completed the integration of Mamma.com/Copernic to provide the Company with a unified management team with a focused vision. The new licensing of software in the quarter was a major contributor to the quarter’s profitability. Unlike our search activities, licensing software fluctuates quarterly.  2007 will be an important year for the Company. We intend to focus our resources in sales and marketing, mainly in the USA and Europe. We also expect to announce new innovative products and services that are very unique in the market."

Keep in mind that MAMA is one of these cult stocks that trades wildly around news and is a daytrader natural.  Keep in mind that there are NO large analysts that follow the stock. Shares closed up almost 9% ahead of this at $4.50 to give a $64 million market cap and shares are up almost another 20% in after-hours.  We’ll see if the bulls win out in the name on its earnings or if the bears can win by commenting that this was mostly from one customer and it will have charges for directors leaving.  This is one volatile name and its share trading volume usually spikes much higher on news days.  As of February its shoirt interest was 4.6 million shares and its 52-week trading band is $0.86 to $8.60.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

US Stock Market Closing Wrap (MAR 7, 2007)

DJIA                     12,192.37; Down 15.22 (0.12%)
NASDAQ             2,374.64; Down 10.50 (0.44%)
S&P500              1,391.95; Down 3.46 (0.25%)
10YR-Bond        4.497% ; Down 0.031
NYSE Volume    3,177,062,000
NASD Volume    1,920,460,000
VIX                         14.90 (-1.06)

Above market closing levels are ‘unofficial’ on th exact closing levels.  Today was a day where we saw a mixed bag in the financial markets.  All of the indices were mixed throughout the day and the leaders were random. 

Oddly enough we saw Strength in the sub-prime mortgage and lending area after Fremont General (FMT) rose 25% because it noted that there are interested parties that may want to acquire it.  That almost seems odd stating because of how hideous they have looked.  Going into the close New Century Finacial (NEW) was up over 4% at $5.25 and Novastar (NFI) was up 10% at $5.00.

Toll Brothers (TOL) was up 1.6% right before the close after it said it would burn through its inventories in 4 to 5 months.  DR Horton (DHI) said it would miss targets in 2007 for home closings, but sees pricing power maybe in 2008.  CNBC reported that the CEO of DR Horton even said that "2007 will suck" if you can believe it.  That may be a first from one of the industry CEO’s.  Maybe he was out cocktailing at lunch because that stock fell off a cliff at the end of the day and closed down $0.01 at $24.55.  That may be a case study of "what not to say."

CV Therapeutics (CVTX) remained down 23% into the close after mixed data last night that was really a negative on its angina studies.  Unfortunately that marks another year low.

Take-Two (TTWO) was up 8% before the close and had been up over 10% as SAC Capital and other firms were banding their efforts together to replace the management and board of directors at the annual meeting in two-weeks.

Valero (VLO), Exxon (XOM), and other energy stocks rose with a strong energy market after oil inventories fell more than expected.

Defensive stocks weren’t exactly gobbled up today with 14 of our 20 ‘first-line defensive stocks for a crummy market’ being negative in the last few minutes of the day.

All eyes will be viewing to see how Japan and China open in a few hours and that may set the tune for tomorrow.  Have a great evening and stay tuned for more big news and analysis.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Has Some New Calls (MAR 7, 2007)

Cramer said on CNBC’s STOP TRADING segment that you can buy Take-Two (TTWO) after the activist seizure of the company.  With the short interest it will be a huge squeeze and the shorts had their story straight before Cohen and cohorts went after the company.

As far as the economy, Cramer said the sub-prime has extended.  On Joy Global (JOYG) with it up 3% Cramer likes it. 

On Under Armour (UA), the company is able to snake away the market share that Reebok is losing and he thinks its going to the $50.00’s from the $45.00+ levels now.

Ciena (CIEN) is one that may get a big Verizon contract according to one of his contributors at TheStreet.com.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon C. Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Revisting Valero’s Break-Up Value (VLO)

Crude oil and natural gas prices have quietly been on the rise for most of 2007, and Valero (VLO-NYSE) has greatly been the beneficiary.  Spot prices for North Sea Brent were just under $62/barrel after rising over a dollar today, equaling the highs we saw in the latter half of 2006.  Investors should assume a very hawkish stance towards following where prices go in the upcoming weeks, as we may well be at an inflection point. Oil prices are oil prices, and if T. Boone Pickens gets it wrong sometimes then you know oil acts with a mind of its own and sometimes outside of logic.

A technician might say with some conviction that the charts for oil and natural gas don’t look favorable to those who want to see lower prices, which includes the majority of the (sans-energy) corporate world, consumers, and politicians on both sides.  Some companies stand to benefit greatly from higher raw prices, as higher raw prices lead to higher profits for refiners, such as Valero (VLO-NYSE).  As the largest independent refiner in the US, Valero also has some protection to its business since getting new refineries built is more than a challenge because of the regulations.   

We covered Valero (VLO) in one of our break-up analysis pieces back on January 29th.  At the time VLO stock was trading around $53.00, and we were assuming that the supreme value of their refineries was magnified because nobody is getting clearance to build more refineries and it is almost as difficult to increase refining capacity at existing plants.  One refinery is temporarily down because of an accident but that doesn’t bring about new refineries overnight and the higher prices are more than making up for it.  A nationwide capacity restraint becomes quite the cash machine for Valero at higher price levels.  This is particularly true if you consider that VLO produces more oil than it sells in its retail operations that it can sell into the markets, so it benefits from gradually rising rising prices. 

The stock is trading up over 4% this afternoon, and currently sits back over $60.00 for the first time since last summer.  The street may even be treating this one as a defensive stock because of its mega-low P/E of under 9.0 on a current and forward basis.  This $60.00 price today is slightly above what was our stated break-up value of $59.00, but keep in mind that a break-up values are meant to be guides of what a "Fair Value" estimate is from those who analyze break-up and merger valuations.  Oil was about $52.00 to $53.00 at the time.  We will be the first to admit that break-up values are based on a snapshot and based on interpretations, and to a behemoth that is going to put capital into the game the implied values will be much higher to some and lower to others.

Valero still trades for about 8.6 times earnings even after the recent run-up.  If crude oil & gas prices trend higher from here, Valero and others in the sector could vastly improve their operating margins and possibly their earnings multiples.   If oil STAYS at these levels it would increase the perceived break-up values,  but we already stated that the oil markets act with a mind of their own.

Most of the refiners and integrated oils are trading higher today since oil inventories fell more than expected, but VLO is today’s leader of the oil patch.  Exxon has been making presentations to analysts today in New York City.  Tesoro (TSO) shares are up 3.6% at $95.09 and Sonoco (SUN) shares are up 3.9% at $66.30.  Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are up 2.2% at $72.57 and Chevron (CVX) is up 2.5% at $69.35. 

Written by Ryan Barnes
Edited by Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon C. Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Evaluates Warren Buffett Stock Picks

On today’s Wall Street Confidential video on TheStreet.com, Jim Cramer evaluates Warren Buffett’s stock purchases.

In the last 3-years if you buy what he has bought on the announcement date (13D filings) you would have actually lost money.  In years before that you would have made money chasing his picks on the announcement that he had acquired a stake.  There may be a thought that he has either lost his edge or that he is taking such a long-term view that it is hard to profit from it.  While this was discussing the Warren Buffett picks, they did note some strategies on how to use his picks. 

Cramer noted this on USG (USG) but maybe you can be successful in buying these after big drops when he is in there.  They also noted the UnitedHealth (UNH) that trades at 1-times its growth rate and Cramer thinks this has value even after the ongoing issues over the last year.  Humana (HUM) was one that Cramer says is in a good spot.  There is also a concentration of regional banks, and they noted USBancorp (USB) that Cramer said was a Peter Lynch method of adding it up.  Cramer also noted the raid in regionals going on.  Fifth Third (FITB), Wachovia (WB), and SunTrust (STI) are all up and that is an interesting call on USB that Cramer says he will do some work on for his TV Show.  Ingersoll Rand (IR) is one that Cramer said he botched by buying at the height of the commodity boom after they told him they were not levered to housing when they really were.  They talk about more picks so you can listen in.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The New Alpha: Activism

From Investment Intelligencer

Barbarians_at_gate As the investment business gets more and more competitive, and as the smarter firms realize just how hard it is to add value through traditional public-market stock-picking, a handful of firms have begun pursuing alpha through a new investment strategy: shareholder activism. 

Instead of trying to predict how a company will perform and how the market will react to this performance (in most cases, a loser’s game, given the intense competition), these investors are increasingly taking matters into their own hands.  Specifically, they are buying companies, instead of stocks, and then forcing management to run the companies differently. 

When activist investors are successful, they and their clients benefit from not only the positive changes, which produce a higher stock price, but reduced transaction costs and taxes. In contrast to the typical passive ownership-style of most U.S. institutions, moreover, the U.S. economy benefits, as companies get more competitive. 

This strategy obviously doesn’t work in all cases–sometimes company managements successfully resist the onslaught, sometimes the investors’ ideas are harebrained–but the change in attitude, from money managers to shareholders, is a positive one.

In the latest example, from the NYT, a group composed of OppenheimerFunds, SAC Capital, Tudor, and D.E. Shaw are trying to dump the board and CEO of Take Two Interactive, the video game company responsible for the mega-hit Grand Theft Auto:

The slate of rival nominees [at the annual meeting] is expected to include Strauss Zelnick, the former BMG executive, who intends to request authority to remove Take Two’s chief executive.  In its regulatory filing, the group gave little indication why they wanted to sweep out the boardroom and send the chief executive packing. But Take Two’s recent troubles are obvious…

 

Yahoo! Panama Kicks Sand On Microsoft

Late word from Barron’s is that Panama is working well, at least according to a study from RBC Capital. Click-through rates on search ads have improved significantly, but the most important part of the survey may be this: Yahoo’s share of of search-related spending is up to 18.1% from 17%. Google (GOOG) has not lost share, but MSN (MSFT) and others have.

Microsoft has been fighting a losing battle in search, first against Yahoo! and later against Google. Search is considered "strategic" at Microsoft particularly now that it is delivering more of its products online through Microsoft Live. Customers for Windows may be using that as the OS, but are moving "out of system" for search. In essence, Microsoft is not delivering an integrated "live" product because so few people are using its search engine.

Several key Microsoft executives involved in search are leaving the company including Christopher Payne, who most recently served as vice president of Microsoft’s Windows Live Search group

Microsoft’s only solution for fixing the problem, short of buying Yahoo!, is to throw money at it. A lot of money. Its search service needs to work substantially better and needs to be marketed at the level that Windows and Office are. Otherwise, they might as well license Google.

For the time being, Microsoft is hardly treating the search business any better than they do the Zune multimedia player. Not exactly front burner.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Jupitermedia Looks Like Uranus (JUPM, GYI)

What is one of the best ways to make investors really want to revolt against you?  You can try announcing you are in merger talks after market rumors, and then just as quickly announce that merger talks have terminated.  This morning Jupitermedia (JUPM-NASDAQ) did just that.  Here is what the company is saying today:

On February 22, 2007, in response to articles that had been published in the business press and subsequent trading activity in Jupitermedia Corporation’s stock, Jupitermedia issued a press release confirming that it was then in discussions with Getty Images, Inc. regarding a potential transaction with Getty Images. These discussions between Jupitermedia and Getty Images have now terminated. As stated in such press release, it continues to be the long-standing company policy of Jupitermedia not to confirm or deny market rumors.

Well, if you confirmed the rumors and then said talks have terminated, then what is your real policy?  In all honesty, it was a wonder as to why Getty would have wanted to acquire Jupitermedia.  There is that huge photo and content library that definitely has value, but Getty would be able to license this library far cheaper than it would have paid to just acquire the company.  That diminshes the Getty-centric value since it isn’t exclusive, but the balance sheet on JUPM made this one very expensive to Getty even if it was going to be only a $300-ish million deal for a $3 Billion company.

We gave some other notes on this back on February 22, 2007.  Shares are now down almost 15% at $7.35 after trading above $8.50 before the announcement.  The stock is still at the lower-end of the $5.45 to $18.81 trading band over the last 52-weeks.  Shares briefly traded over $10.00 upon the commencement of the "buyout" talks. 

If the company hasn’t gone ahead and began piecing together its legal response to shareholder class action suits then it should start on that right now.  Class action suits may take longer to be filed because of the market action over the last week, but it is probably a safe assumption that at least one class action suit is coming against Jupitermedia and its management.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC and he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Take-Two’s Board Gunned Down By Shareholders

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is seeing a strange issue today because of a Schedule 13D filing with the SEC on behalf of shareholders.  A group of shareholders have banded together and are going to basically kick the board of directors out of the company.  This strategy goes beyond activist investing because it is essentially a seizure of control without a buyout. 

This group in the filing includes OppenheimerFunds, SAC Capital Management (Cohen), Tudor Investment (Jones), D.E. Shaw, and ZelnickMedia have created a group with more than a 24% stake in Take-Two.  The group plans to vote for a panel of new directors, will ask for the right to replace the CEO and will review the CFO position.  It is unknown if there are others that will try to band up with the group, but that may be a safe assumption.

The group is going to appoint ZelnickMedia as the financial and management consultant.  Here is ZelnickMedia’s fee structure: $62.500.00 per month, annual bonus of up to $750,000.00 and an option to buy up to 2.5% of the fully diluted shares over a 3-year period, plus reasonable reimbursement for expenses.  There are more refined details in the filing, but these turnaround issues could be a rough blueprint for other activist and seizure types of investments.

This is one day after the controversial Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories franchise game was made available for PS2 consoles in North America.  It appears that the only remaining issue will be if the investor group offers some hot coffee to the board.

Shares are up roughly 11% at $19.60 on the day and it has already seen more than an average daily volume.  The 52-week trading range is $9.06 to $21.06, so shares have virtually doubled since the absolute lows from its video game recalls, fines, government inquiries, stock options issues, and ousting of leadership.  TTWO used to be a $25.00 and higher stock before all of its issues started biting the company back.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Should The Fed Set An Open Target For Inflation?

The head of the Philly Fed Bank, Charles Prosser, spoke out yesterday in favor of having the FOMC establish public, explicit targets for inflation to be used in guiding monetary policy.

This re-opens a debate that’s been going on (albeit in the muted tones of Fed-speak) for many years.  Should the Fed set open targets for inflation?  Should they just lay some numbers out there, for example a 1-year and a 5-year forecast, along with a message to the effect of, “Here’s what we’re hoping for; if it looks like we’re not going to get there, then we’re going to start pushing or pulling to get it there.”

Ben Bernanke was openly calling for it, even writing books about it, while Greenspan was still running things.  Now Mr. Bernanke is like an incoming congressman just itching to pull a specific piece of legislation out of his pocket as soon as the timing is right.  Only the timing hasn’t been right ever since Bernanke took up his new post.  Because in this case, bad timing = favorable economic conditions.  In short, you never mess with a winning streak.  So far, by and large, the economy of the last year has been a good one.

Read More »

Smithers: Look Out Below

From Investment Intelligencer

SmithersLondon-based strategist Andrew Smithers argues that "everything" is overvalued–stocks, houses, REITs, and even art.  In his view, there are only two ways the situation can correct itself: 1) asset prices will fall, or 2) inflation will rise.  Displaying unusual confidence in the inflation-fighting resolve of central bankers, Smithers argues that solution 1 is more likely.  This adjustment process, he believes, will lead to a major recession.

There is a high risk that the next recession will be severe, either by being prolonged or by being unusually deep. The fundamental problem is that asset prices have risen to such high levels relative to incomes. This applies to shares, houses, other forms of real estate, gold and even art.

With assets so far out of line with incomes, either asset prices will have to fall in nominal terms or incomes will have to rise at an inflationary pace. It will be extremely difficult to manage the economy during the adjustment process, whether the route is rising inflation or falling asset prices.

Here, Smithers bases his valuation assessment on the relationship between prices and incomes.  In other forums–namely research reports from Smithers & Co.–he makes the same argument using the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio.  Neither measure is of any use for short-term market timing, as Smithers will surely be the first to attest.  The cyclically-adjusted P/E, however, has in the past had significant predictive capability.

Talk About A Lack of Conviction

From Ticker Sense

A 90% upside volume day occurs when 90% of the NYSE volume occurs in stocks which finished positive on the day, while a 90% downside day means 90% or more of the NYSE volume occurred in stocks that were down.  According to technical analysts, an occurrence of either event is considered to signify extreme sentiment on the part of investors i.e., "Get me out of the market at any cost." or "Get me into the market at any cost." So it makes sense that if one of these occurs on one day, the opposite is unlikely to occur the next.  Right?

On Monday, when the S&P 500 fell 0.94%, downside volume on the NYSE was 91.5% of total volume, implying panic selling on the part of investors.  Yesterday, after the S&P 500’s 1.55% rise, upside volume was 93.8% of total volume!  Yes that’s right, on Monday we had panic selling and then Tuesday we had panic buying.  Talk about indecisiveness.

We looked back as far as 1970 to see what happens after prior periods where we had such a dramatic shift in sentiment (90% downside day followed by a 90% upside day) to see what happens going forward.  To our surprise, this was the first such occurrence in over 37 years!  Digging a little deeper however, we found a paper (pg 14) which shows that in 1967, the NYSE actually did have a 90% downside day (6/5) followed by a 90% upside day (6/6).  The chart below shows the S&P 500 before and after that occurrence in 1967.  Following that period, the market never looked back.

Sp_500_1967

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/

Pre-Market Stock News (MAR 7, 2007)

(ADTN) Adtran won IP service contract from Verizon.
(ASVI) ASV $0.09 EPS vs $0.11e.
(BNT) Bentley Pharma announced approval of its generic oncology product in Spain.
(CAKE) Cheesecake Factory announced an additional 10M shares for a buyback plan.
(CBMX) CombiMatrix group’s subsidiary, CombiMatrix Molecular Diagnostics, has entered into a partnership with The Centre for Applied Genomics in Toronto, Canada.
(CGEN) Compugen announces a second agreement with Biosite (BSTE) for the development and commercialization of immunoassay diagnostic products.
(CHINA) CDC entered new gaming platform JV in China.
(CHS) Chico’s FAS traded up 4% after earnings and guidance in-line.
(CRXL) Crucell gets another $5M for TB research.
(CVTX) CV Therapeutics down over 20% on bad drug data.
(ENCY) Encysive Pharma’s THELIN receives Australian marketing approval.
(FCS) Fairchild Semi reiterated guidance of -3% to -6% for revenues.
(FLR) Fluor awarded $462M Oxiana contract to develop Australia’s Prominent Hill copper-gold project.
(FRN) Friendly’s Ice Cream hired Goldman Sachs to explore strategic alternatives and enhance shareholder value.
(GOOG) Google up 1% on upgrade.
(HLYS) Heelys trading down 3% after beating earnings estimates because it won’t give forward guidance other than 20-25% growth.
(HOFF) Horizon Offshore signed a US Northeast contract and announced $300M in backlog.
(HYC) Hypercom $0.05 EPS vs $0.02e; raised guidance.
(IRBT) iRobot gets $2.8M order for 22 units in Germany.
(IW) Imageware in PEM agreement with Honeywell.
(KAI) Kadant has an $18M order in Asia and $10M more pending.
(MOVI) Movie Gallery is paying about $10M to acquire MovieBeam.
(PNY) Piedmont $0.94 EPS vs $0.98e.
(PTA) Penn Treaty filed its annual documents.
(PTNX) Printronics in expanded distribution pact with Ingram Micro.
(SPW) SPX Corp announced sale of Contech business for $146M cash.
(TAYC) Taylor Capital has increased its bad loan and delinquent loan amounts previously offered.
(WVCM) Wavcom Wireless in pact with Peugeot.
(ZGEN) Zymogentics said t hat the FDA will not require additional Phase III clinical trials with recombinant human Thrombin administered by a spray device.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

Analyst Calls (MAR 7, 2007)

AIV raised to Buy at UBS.
ALK started as Hold at Soleil.
AMR started as Hold at Soleil.
AXL raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
AVAV started as Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
AVB raised to Outperform at Baird.
BEZ started as Outperform at Bear Stearns.
BGFV raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
BUCY raised to Overweight at Lehman.
CAL started as Sell at Soleil.
CB raised to Hold at Citigroup.
CC raised to Buy at B of A.
CPB cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
CMRG started as Buy at First Albany.
CTR cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
CVTX cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
DE raised to Overweight at Lehman.
DEIX raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
EAT raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
EDU raised to Outperform at CIBC.
FAF raised to Overweight at Lehman.
GAP raised to Neutral at UBS.
GFIG raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
GOOG raised to Buy at UBS.
HCP raised to Buy at UBS.
JOYG raised to Overweight at Lehman.
K raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
LUV started as Buy at Soleil.
MMS raised to Buy at UBS.
MSSR raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
ODP raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
OKE raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
PSS raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
PDLI raised to Neutral at First Albany.
PLTE started as Outperform at CIBC.
PRAA raised to Outperform at JMP.
RSYS raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.
SHO raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
SKYW started as Buy at Soleil.
TCK raised to Outperform at CIBC.
UACL raised to Buy at BB&T.
WY cut to Reduce at UBS.
XJT started as Sell at Soleil.

Jon C. Ogg
March 7, 2007

China Funny Money Becomes Big Business

In China they have a lot of "virtual" money. Consumers play online games and win the ethereal dough. But, it can be used to buy real stuff in the real world.

So, the Chinese government is going to internet cafes in the hope of getting the portion of the country’s 137 million internet users involved in using online virtual money to stop.

According to the FT.com, the Chinese government made the following proclamation: “The People’s Bank of China will strengthen management of the virtual currencies used in online games and will stay on the lookout for any assault by such virtual currencies on the real economic and financial order.”

The trouble with this is that the Chinese government has not had much success with curbing bad behavior beyond running people over with tanks in Tiananmen Square. The central authorities have not been able to cut down on intellectual property theft or people who want to have more than one child.

Virtual currency could be a real threat to the Chinese economy. An underground that can buy goods and services without using government issued green backs risks an imbalance between the actual costs of things and whether they are paid for with phantom money. It puts supply and demand on its head.

But, the Chinese could always use their virtual money to buy stock on the Hang Seng or Shanghai markets. As if they are not unstable enough already.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com.