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Email UpdatesICAgen’s (ICGN-NASDAQ) stock is being crushed in after-hours trading, although the trading volume is very light. Shares are down 37% to $1.15 after closing down 2.6% today. Read on, because this one sounds in trouble.
Daily Archives: April 3, 2007
Market Comments From TheStockMasters 4/3/2007
Oil is trading at under $66 a barrel, to this we say "so what?".
The 52-Week Low Club
Jackson-Hewitt (JTX) Tax service franchise facing shutdown of 125 outlets and fraud charges at some offices. Shares down to $26.26. The 52-week high was $37.44.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Big semi company down again. $12.71. Still concerns about financing and competition with Intel (INTC). the 52-week high was $35.75.
Occam Networks (OCNW) Audit committee looking into commitments made by sales force and 10-K filing is delayed. Broadband network equipment company drops to $8.15. The 52-week high was $21.
SpatiaLight, Inc (HDTV) Maker of high resolution liquid crystal gets Nasdaq delisting notice. Shares fall to $.24 from 52-week high of $3.99.
Quantum Fuel (QTWW) Investors still selling off after fiscal Q3 loss. Shares drop to $1.04 from 52-week high of $5.
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) Influential research group issues report against merger with XM Satellite (XMSR).
Douglas A. McIntyre
VoIP Presses The Telephone Company
Bernstein Research predicts that Comcast (CMCSA) will pass Vonage (VG) as the No.1 provider of VoIP service in the US when Q1 is reported. The firm’s analysis shows that the largest US cable company will have 4.38 million voice customers at the end of this year, according to Barron’s. Further, Comcast could have 11.93 million customers by 2010.
All of this is terribly bad news for the telephone companies, especially AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). Their landline businesses are cash cows, and the penetration of cellular users in the US has reached a point where they can no longer count on hyper-growth from that sector.
Fiber to the home may be the one salvation for the big telecoms. It will put them at the crossroads of TV and the residential user. But, it will probably come too late.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Cramer’s STOP TRADING (APR 3, 2007)
On today’s STOP TRADING segments on CNBC, Jim Cramer was on the road ahead of tomorrow’s University of Indiana.
Cramer was positive on Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) to $75 or $80 per share.
On Google (GOOG) after Goldman Sachs running it up, Cramer said he loves the analyst call. Cramer said this might finally get it going and it is ready to finally begin its move.
On Halliburton (HAL), Cramer is positive and said the buyback will start now that the KBR spin-off is finalized. He thinks everyone can own it.
On Crocs (CROX), Cramer said the shorts haven’t covered and that could run up. He likes Under Armour (UA) the best though.
Earnings Preview: Micron Tech (MU)
Micron Tech (MU-NYSE) will be reporting earnings tomorrow, and the largest U.S. maker of memory chips’ numbers will hopefully shed some light on the state of the DRAM and NAND markets. Spot prices for the two have been improving in the past month, but some analysts have questioned whether this was due to an actual demand pickup or simply the big players intentionally cutting back on production.
Micron shareholders are certainly hoping and ready for some good news, as the stock is down more than 20% in the last year, and off nearly 35% from its peak in September ’06. The timing of Micron’s capacity increase this year couldn’t have gone much worse, as they already warned shareholders in February that memory prices in the current qtr would be down 30% to 40% sequentially amidst a huge supply glut for both flash and DRAM.
A half-dozen analysts have revised their estimates downward in the past month, pushing the current consensus EPS estimate to -$0.01 to $0.01 from source to source with a huge range on revenues of $1.45 to $1.47 Billion. The most recent numbers coming in have been even lower, so the whispers are centering on a loss of a few pennies per share.
Basically, everyone is expecting an awful quarter, and the outlook (another slight loss on estimated 2% sequential declines) provided tomorrow will be the biggest news, along with current book/bill and inventory levels. If management makes any definitive statements about “stabilizing pricing environments”, that could be enough to push the stock out of its recent basing in the $11.50 – $12.00 range. The stock has received several recent upgrades based on hopes for pricing improvement, and also citing the infamous "attractive valuations." As of 1:30 EST, MU stock was up .58% on the day to $12.20.
Some on the street are saying that Samsung is having problems with its next-generation 50 nm NAND fabs, which could help Micron establish a foothold in future contract negotiations and unwind any excess inventory levels picked up this quarter. Micron has production up and running for 50 nm memory, and is building a new $250 million facility in China. With new products like the iPhone and others on the horizon, the demand side of the picture could be improving or at least stable into the summer. The positive secular trends for flash certainly seem intact (even if pricing does not), at least until 25nm processes threaten to re-write the way flash is produced 5 years from now.
Other related stocks to watch tomorrow include SanDisk (SNDK-NASDAQ) and Qimonda AG (QI-NYSE), and on a slow week for big market news the semi group as a whole might echo any noise made by Micron.
Ryan Barnes
April 3, 2007
Ryan Barnes can be reached at ryanbarnes@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Goldman Advises Investors to Buy Google (GOOG)
From Ticker Sense
Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Noto recommended investors buy shares of GOOG and says paid lead and ROIC support the bullish view and $620 price target.
First Quarter Country Returns
From Ticker Sense
On the heels of a +1,000% increase in inflation, Zimbabwe’s stock market returned over 600% in the first quarter of 2007.
Vidmeter: Viacom Videos Were Only 2% of YouTube Views
From Internet Outsider
Vidmeter Incorporated has published an in-depth study of the number and type of YouTube videos that have been removed at the request of copyright holders. Importantly, the study analyzes not only the number of videos removed, but the percentage of total YouTube views that such videos accounted for prior to their removal.
GM: Ides of March
Toyota (TM) hurt GM again in March. After the Japanese car company came out with a sales increase of 11.7% to 242,675, General Motors (GM) reported a drop in sales of 7.7% to 349,867. The company blamed a cut back in fleet sales for much of the short fall. Industry analysts had expected better.
Sales of Buick cars and trucks were off sharply from 23,276 a year ago to 16,222.
Saturn continued to be a signficant bright spot, with sales up from 16,629 in 2006 to 21,123 last month.
Wall St. took the news as positive sending GM shares up 2% to $31.43.
Must live in a Detroit ostrich farm.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Toyota’s Fair March
Perhaps there is a tiny ray of hope for the Big Three after all. Toyota (TM) sales in the US were up 11.7% compared to the same month last year. It was a good month, but not a blow out.
Total sales of all Toyota brands hit 242,675. The Toyota brand itself had sales of 213,820. Sales at Lexus barely moved up to 28,855. Sales of pick-ups were also close to flat.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Ford Gets A Tiny Reprieve
US sales for Ford (F) were off 9% from March of last year. Total vehicle sales were 264,975.
The company had two bright spots. Sales of the Crown Victoria were up 22% to just over 6,500. Sales of the Fusion rose 48% to almost 15,000.
But, sales of the company’s flagship F-series pick-up were off 15% to under 71,000. Sales of the Lincoln brand rose for the month.
Looking at Ford’s other premium brands, sales of Jaguar, Range Rover, and Volvo all fell. It once again begs the question of why they simply aren’t sold off to another company.
Douglas A. McIntyre
March OK For Chrysler (DCX)
Sales of Chrysler vehicles in the US fell 4.6%, a bit better than expected and DaimlerChyrsler (DCX) sales including Mercedes were off 4.1% to 228,047.
The new Dodge Nitro SUV did well and did the Jeep Wrangler, a sign that smaller sports utility vehicles have a decent market as gas prices rise.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Europe Share Value Humuliates US Markets
According to the FT, the value of the 24 stock markets in Europe has risen to $15,720 billion. The total value of US markets is now $15,640 billion. This has not happened since WWI.
The primary cause of Europe passing the US is the rise in share prices there since 2003.
However, the figures used to calculate the comparison include Russia and other and Eastern Europe. Not really markets at all.
Probably just an attempt to make the US look bad.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Sony Cuts Playstation Price: No Joy In Mudville
Sony (NYSE:SNE) has decided to cut the price of its portable Playstation. In the US, the retail cost will drop from $199 to $169, The move still makes it more expensive the Nintendo portable.
Price cuts are never a good sign at a consumer electronics firm, although it is generally assumed that as unit sales go up, the component prices drop, so margins may not be badly hurt.
Sony’s move does open the floor to the question of whether its will have to cut prices on its new PS3, which so far has lagged the Microsoft (NASD:MSFT) 360 and Nintendo Wii in sales. The PS3 is the most expensive of these game consoles.
Price cut for the PS3? Now, that would hurt.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Should Sirius Deal With XM Die?
According to The New York Post, the research group that helped kill the Echostar (DISH) deal to merge with DirecTV (DTV) has crafted a report for the National Association of Broadcasts. The report gives a number of reasons that the federal government should reject the merger of Sirius (SIRI) with XM (XMSR).
The argument at the core of the paper from The Carmel Group is shows that "competition, even in a duopoly, forces improvements in service, choice and pricing" and that "consumers benefit when Sirius and XM compete to do a better job to earn and retain their subscriptions."
Sirius stock hit another 52-week low today at $3.08.
Financial analysts believe that the two companies may need the merger to cut costs. Both firms has loaded with debt and have not made money, at least on a GAAP basis.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Full Analyst Research Summary (APR 3, 2007)
ABY cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
ADLS started as Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw.
AGP raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
ALLT cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
ARBA started as Hold at WR Hambrecht.
BOW cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
CBI raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
CIEN tgt raised to $37 at Credit Suisse.
CNXT started as Hold at Jefferies.
Another Lawsuit In Nokia Battle With Qualcomm
Perhaps it will never end, and cell phone chip company Qualcomm (QCOM) will battle with its largest customer, Nokia (NOK) until the end of ages.
With Nokia’s license of Qualcomm’s products running out in a week, the US chip company has sued the world’s largest handset company claiming infringement on five patents. Nokia has already made claims in Europe that Qualcomm is abusing its monopoly position in the cell phone IP market. There is also IP litigation pending between Qualcomm and one of its competitors, Broadcom (BCRM). Qualcomm investors don’t like all of this and it is helping keep the shares well below their 52-week high of $53.
The fight between the two companies is a game of chicken that neither company may win.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Pre-Market Stock News (APR 3, 2007)
(AAPL) Apple gets an inquiry from the EU over anti-trust issues into how its iTunes sells music online in coordination with major music companies.
(AIZ) Assurant will replace Realogy (H) in S&P 500 Index after close on Monday April 9.
(BG) Bunge actually lowered earnings guidance to $4.56 to $4.71 (after $0.23 Gain) versus $4.46 estimate for 2007 because of unrealized mark-to-market losses.
(CEGE) Cell Genesys said it showed longer survival time in prostate cancer studies from Phase II.
(CMGI) CMGI buys the other 60% of its joint venture in Japan in ModusLink unit.
TASER Stuns Itself
TASER International Inc. (TASR-NASDAQ) is indicated down almost 5% pre-market after announcing that its Q1 2007 sales are estimated at $14 million. This was the largest Q1 quarter for the company, but the few estimates were between $18 million to $20 million.
The company cited the delay of 3 large customer orders being delayed. Its CEO said in the press release statement that the company received confirmation that these orders will ship in Q2 and that they are still looking for growth in 2007. There have hardly been any trades so far, so this pre-market activity may be higher or lower once the real trades start coming in.
Jon C. Ogg
April 3, 2007
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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