Daily Archives: May 3, 2007

Cramer’s SELL BLOCK (MAY 3, 2007)

Cramer made too many calls on the SELL BLOCK on CNBC’s MAD MONEY tonight, but here are some of his calls:

Hansen Medical (HNSN) is one that he said he’s be a pig not to recommend taking profits up $6.00, but Cramer said he’s going to focus on his losers:

Vulcan Materials (VMC) is one he thought would have a great quarter and it didn’t.  Back then it was at $67 and then he said he would buy more over $100.00 but now it is off $8.00 and should be sold.

P&G (PG) is one that didn’t do well and it hasn’t integrated Gillette, he’d sell.

Allergan (AGN) is one he’s been touting but he didn’t anticipate that Medicis (MRX) would get FDA approval to compete. He still likes Allergan and you aren’t down, but he’d take some off the table because of competitors.

On Medco Health (MHS), they beat estimates but Cramer got in at the top and he said they sold off.

As far as Charter Communications (CHTR), he had the game plan wrong on the set-up, but he thinks its going higher.  He’d stick with it.

Andersones (ANDE) is one he liked but they didn’t guide way up so it fell, he’d get out.

Estee Lauder (EL) benefitted from foreign sales but they did horrible here in the US.

Celgene (CELG) is one he isn’t sure about as far as if he got anything wrong on even though it sold off, but he’s bringing on the CEO for an interview.  Cramer thought the earnings were good, but it sold off.  Here are the CEO comments: "Strong top-line, investing up, thought it was well executed with a building ahead. They will launch in 30 countries for Revlimid and also got Phase III great data in new myeloma patients.  As far as ASCO next month, the company will present more detailed data on myeloma for Revlimid but also for other tumors.  $2.1 Billion cash and company can execute plans on their own and they don’t need to be acquired or even buy anyone."  Cramer said he thinks this is a "Back up the truck" and buy into the weakness ahead of ASCO conference next month.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Lights Up Corning (GLW)

Cramer also noted that Corning (GLW-NYSE) is one that has LCD screens and fiber optic cabling whose business is on fiber, where both glass and fiber pricing is stable.  Their third business is also firing on all cylinders is energy filtration for clean engines that could even be larger down the road than ethanol.  The filtration side is a green energy company.  The company ran 33% to $28.00 and it is back down to $24.00+.  The new emissions controls have made demand strong enough that they boosted capacity in China and they are adding large customers. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Expects Hewlett Packard to Beat EPS Estimates

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer came out talking about all the core bit part prices coming down for products inside computers.  Cramer thinks that DRAM is money in the bank, but not for DRAM makers.  The way to win is the upcoming major upside surprise on May 16 that will be from Hewlett Packard (HPQ-NYSE).  Cramer said it hasn’t participated in the rally and that will change when it reports.  The upside will come because the computer components cost less and less.  The new printers are going to breakthrough as well.  This is one that will win because of margin expansion.  The price savings goes right to the bottom line and Cramer thinks the EPS will be much better than $0.65 and will earn more than consensus for the year.  It also does 1/3 of its business in the US, and this could add 5% or more to the bottom line because of the dollar devaluing.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

CROCS Unbelievably Strong Sales (CROX)

If you take a look at the metrics for CROCS Inc. (CROX-NASDAQ), they speak for themselves.  Shares are up 14% to $65.50 in after-hours trading, which will be more than 10% above the all-time highs.  To top off what were nothing short of blowout earnings, the company declared a TWO-for-ONE stock split.  Adding fuel to the fire is the 9.1 million shares in the short interest from April, which is more than one-third of its share float.

These results are amazing when you look at them:

Q107 Revenues Increased 217% to $142.0 Million (estimates were $114 million);
1Q07 Diluted EPS of $0.61 (estimates were $0.49)

Q207 Guidance of Revenues between $180 and $190 Million (estimates are $136 million) and Diluted EPS of $0.80 to $0.85 (estimates are $0.63); Raises FY07 Guidance to Revenues of $670 to $680 Million (estimates are $541 million) and Diluted EPS of $2.90 to $2.95 (estimates are $2.43).

This is just an amazing fad, and it proves that America is truly addicted to ugly fashion.  Don’t let the appearance get in the way of a growth trend.  The company has signed university and sports pacts that keep driving sales and it hasn’t even mattered that their intellectual property right issues are not entirely behind it.  At the end of the day these are rubber and foam versions of what the Dutch dock workers wore to keep their feet from getting crushed, so the intellectual property outside of the little gator face is one that anyone with cash could challenge if they wanted to.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Solar Sales on Fire at First Solar (FSLR)

First Solar (FSLR-NASDAQ) announced revenues of $66.9 million and earnings per share of $0.07, versus estimates of $52.9 million and $0.00.  Some investors want overperformance and almost all demand it from hi-flyers, and they got it here.

“During the first quarter we benefited from continued solid execution providing for both sequential revenue and throughput growth, while readying ourselves for the production ramp at our German plant,” said Mike Ahearn, Chief Executive Officer of First Solar.

Unfortunately we have no guidance at all for future quarters in the press release, so getting too excited about the 8% pop in after-hours trading back up to $62.00+ is perhaps premature.  The company hosts a conference call at 4:30 PM.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Jones Soda Spews (JSDA)

Jones Soda (JSDA-NASDAQ) looks like someone shook up a carbonated can of shareholders and spewed it out all over the floor.  The metrics sound good on a comparable basis to the past, but they won’t please Wall Street:

Total case sales of 1,722,000 cases (288 ounce equivalent) compared to 592,000 cases a year ago; Revenue increased 4.9% to $9.2 million compared to $8.8 million a year ago; Gross margin increased to 38.3% versus 35.6% last year; Diluted earnings per share were $0.00 compared to $0.00 a year ago.

Wall Street was expecting closer to $13 million revenues and $0.03 EPS, although we haven’t heard all the issues for comparable data on estimates yet.

The company said that it worked hard to prepare for the full launch of our Jones Soda 12-ounce cans while at the same time increase the penetration of our bottled business at retail. Sales of 1,124,000 cases (288 ounce equivalent) of concentrate during the quarter contributed to meaningful gross margin expansion. But the expansion was offset by additional investments in infrastructure, primarily sales personnel and increased compliance costs (Audit and Sarbanes Oxley) to support expansion plans coupled with several new promotional programs.

Cramer probably wishes right now on the initial reaction that he didn’t call this one the next Hansen Natural…..Shares are down almost 20% to $20.25 in after-hours today.

Until the company has its conference call with guidance, consider this stock move as pending or not yet known.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Starbucks Gets Caffeinated

Wall St.expected Starbucks (SBUX) to post second-quarter earnings of 19 cents a share on revenue of $2.3 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. It did both of those things, right on the nose. It also announced it would buy back 25 million shares.

Same store sales growth was disappointing at 4%. Starbucks continues to target earnings per share in the range of $0.87 – $0.89 for fiscal 2007. 

The company’s shares have been stuck at the low end of their range trading at $31.60 on a 52-week high/low of $40.01/$28.72. Beginning five years ago and through the middle of last year, the stock was up 250%. But, it has given some of that back since late 2006 on concerns that it can keep up 6% same-store sales forever.

Shares rose 2.5% after hours.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cramer: Monster Options Signal a Buyout (MNST)

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer’s "monster call" is pertaining to Monster Worldwide (MNST-NASDAQ).  Cramer said the options activity in Monster Worldwide is signaling a Gannett (GCI) or Google (GOOG) buyout may be coming.  The accumulation is so great and this could be a great buyout for them.  Even eBay (EBAY) could get involved according to Cramer.  The call options that traded today would indicate that this deal could come at north of $55 per share within the next 35 days.  Shares are up 9% on the day now at $48.00+.  He first touted the need for this merger back on April 17.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

How To Lose $1.7 Billion On Dow Jones

It is clear by now that the families which control the majority of the voting shares in Dow Jones (DJ) have no obligation to sell the company to News Corp (DJ) even at the huge premium that has been offered. As is true with The New York Times and The Washington Post Company, the super-majority shareholders can vote as they please. It also appears that there is a section in the Dow Jones articles of incorporation that says that the board must protect the independence of the firm’s products.

If the offer is rejected and nothing in terms of a purchase or merger replaces it, the shares would almost certainly drop sharply from their $56 level. A number of analysts think the shares would go below the price the day of the offer-$36. The low in the months before that was $33, so that may be a reasonable floor.

Since the offer was first leaked, about 74 million shares have changed hands, so there has been a buyer for each share. If the stock falls to $33, it will have lost $23 per. That translates into an aggregate loss of $1.7 billion. Of course, each day the shares trade at the higher price, the potential amount wiped out goes up.

Let’s hope they all bought the June puts.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cramer Sticks With Mastercard (MA)

On the video section for TheStreet.com, Jim Cramer noted Mastercard (MA-NYSE) about the second day rally phenome’s since shares are up 5% today after a 10% drive yesterday.  He is saying that fund managers cannot buy all the shares that they want to at once.  He thinks it’s going to $200.00.  He notes how the trading desks will short sell shares to them $2.00 higher to give them supply and then they have a hard time covering.  Even at $135.00 there aren’t sellers.  Cramer thinks sellers won’t come in until $150.00 and this is basically the exact opposite of price fixing.  The influx of buyers cannot find enough sellers.

Back on April 10, Jim Cramer was out saying the problems were behind (and shares were at $110-ish then).

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Jones Soda (JSDA): To buy or not to buy

Cramer said Jones Soda is the next Hansen and everyone is watching Jones (JSDA) because today they report Q1 after the market close.

What a ride this stock has been on, JSDA is up 168% in the last year alone. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial estimate Jones’ earnings will jump 69% this year to 22 cents a share and move up another 77% the next year. Jones uses pure cane sugar (from Hawaii, born in the sun) in their soft drinks and they have a ton of great flavors that are anything but normal, like their Turkey & Gravy Soda.

It’s too late to buy HANS, Jon Ogg told us now that Hansen has $3.4 Billion in market cap it’s best to just pass, but Jones — can they become the next Hansen? Shares of Jones are up 3% today and trading around $24 a share. Now that Jones Soda is being sold in cans and available at Wal-Mart, Safeway, Kroger, Kmart and Costco. Could this stock continue flying?

We’ll see, after the close.

Frank Lara Jr.

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at feedback@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Nobody shops at Shoe Pavilion (SHOE) anymore and it shows

New 52-week low for Shoe Pavilion Inc. (SHOE) after they predicted a wider-than-expected Q1 loss yesterday. Shares are now trading just under $5 and in the last three months SHOE’s shares have fallen 26%.

Yesterday Shoe Pavilion said traffic and sales have declined because many new Shoe Pavilion stores are in new shopping malls still under construction. Forget the fact that nobody shops there anymore, I guess they left that out. However I could be wrong, the company said its same-store sales (at stores open for at least a year) grew 7.8%.

Shoe Pavilion is scheduled to post its full first-quarter earnings on May 8th. So yesterday’s bad news could be an indicator that even worse news is headed our way next Monday.

Today Roth Capital Partners LLC downgraded SHOE to "Hold" from "Buy," and cut 2007 earnings estimates to 9 cents per share from 23 cents per share. Everybody loves shoes, but investing in SHOE may not be the way to go. The question is can they keep growing and will Wall Street embrace the stock? When I think shoes, I think Zappos.com and if they get around to IPO’ing, I’ll be on that train.

Frank Lara Jr.

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at feedback@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Employment Report comes out Friday, should you care?

This Friday everyone will be taking notice of the employment situation report for April. The Employment report is the result of two separate surveys:

  • The Household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate.
  • The Establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month

The unemployment figure provides a look into the economy’s production, consumption, earnings, and consumer sentiment. It’s not rocket science, a lower unemployment rate means increased expenditure, as more people have jobs and more money to spend on iPods, Dunkin’ Dounuts, Star Wars action figures, etc… .Increased expenditure encourages economic growth, which can spark inflation pressures (and remember that’s what the Federal Reserve Bank is worked up about these days). High levels of unemployment signal economic instability and weakened demand.

So why the economics lesson and is this really important?

It is, that magic word I just mentioned – inflation. Ben Bernanke and his gang of Federal Reserve guys are all worked up about inflation, and they’ve mentioned time and time again that if inflation gets out of control, there are going to be Interest Rate hikes. If people think interest rates are going higher, this could be the start of Bear season. Granted with everything going so well lately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bull Market keeps charging, but it’s something you should be aware of that could impact your stocks.

The Federal Reserve in February forecast annual underlying inflation of 2.75 percent for 2007. So, we’ll see what happens when Friday comes. If it’s good news, the Bulls will run higher, any bad news, and we may see an end to this incredible Bull run.

Stay tuned.

Frank Lara Jr.

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at feedback@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

AMD As A Private Company? Not As Good As It Sounds (AMD, INTC)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-NYSE) is up 2% ahead of its investor meeting and on the day of the Intel (INTC-NASDAQ) analyst meeting.  Last night Investors Business Daily noted the possibilities of the company going private.  Here is what is stated:

In the conference call, Chief Executive Hector Ruiz said the company is looking at all possibilities.

Asked about rumors that private equity investors are interested in AMD, Ruiz responded: "I think your question was about being a public company vs. a private company. It’s like everything else. If it’s something that we think makes sense for our shareholders, we will certainly consider and look at it."

The simple truth is that if Ruiz would have said an outright "NO" or if he would have dusted it off, he would knowingly have been removing at least some sort of theoretical floor in the company.   There were two deals that the hopefuls can refer to for this.  Blackstone did take Freescale private in a huge deal valued at some $17.6 Billion, and a KKR-Silver Lake team bought most of Philips Electronics semiconductor unit for about $10 Billion.  Unfortunately, AMD doesn’t make as much sense.  Both of those other companies have large exposure to what is a commoditized chip business.  In the processor world as far as these two companies are concerned, it boils mostly down to Intel versus AMD.  Could a private equity firm really compete better against Intel than the team has at AMD?

Sure, AMD bought ATI for what was valued at $5.4 Billion at the time of the announcement.  There is still some value there, but right now NVIDIA (NVDA-NASDAQ) is sort of thought of as having the upper hand in the graphic card arena.  That is the prevailing opinion anyway.  ATI could still be theoretically sold back off by a buyer if need be in a valuation break-down, but then you would be back at square one with a more indebted processor manufacturer that competes against a monopoly.  We noted this last capital raise out of AMD was also voodoo financing, and a ‘privateer’ may recognize this too. 

AMD has at least made a laptop processor announcement this morning that is helping, but the words "takeover" or "going private" published by the likes of an IBD will take precedent over faster chip claims today in a "merger world gone wild" investment climate.  Intel is out saying that they expect profit growth to outpace revenues and that they intend to reclaim lost market share.  Who wants to compete against that with new money?

Unless some private equity firm knows that some antitrust issues are going to become much more heated up and that the winner will be due a windfall, then this makes less sense than other buyout speculations.  Even if an offer came, it might fall on deaf ears.  The stock entered 2007 right at $20.00 and the stock was at $30.00+ right before last summer.  There are quite a few holders who would demand a substantially higher price compared to current levels, and using traditional valuation models right now based on today’s information doesn’t exactly make this seem as promising as other situations with better cash flows and better environments not as dominated by one behemoth.

AMD also has high enough needs in R&D and cap-ex spending that it probably needs to be public more than it needs to be able to enjoy some of the current privileges held by private companies.  AMD’s debt covenants are also restrictive upon any new cash raised and cash flows.  If you had the money to buy this company, you would probably be able to easily see that there are better or at least safer alternatives out there for your billions of dollars. 

It is no fun just kicking a company while it is down.  It’s always possible that AMD has a new power punch up its sleeve, butthe current environment is one of a price war now that processors aregetting above and beyond what most computers need.  If it has more surprises and can regain its footing or at least do "less bad", then the stock could recover.  Maybe a private equity firm would want a stake, but all of it seems a stretch.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to look at this one as a private company based on the available information.  That’s my two-cents anyhow.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

DIVX All-Time Low

Divx (DIVX) which makes video software for the internet and consumer electronics devices went public about a year ago. The company developed a following, perhaps because video had become the Next Big Thing with the great success of YouTube and all its competitors. The shares made it to $31.39.

Well, that is now all in the distant past. After signaling that its Q1 numbers would beat forecasts, the company reported a solid Q1 and warned on Q2. Nice trick. The shares hit a 52-week low of $17.03 today, down about 2.5%. The company announced on Monday night. The trading day before, the stock closed at $20.50.

All of this seems very unfair to the average joe investor. On April 9, Divx said it would do better than forecast in the first quarter. It raised its estimate from a range of $17.3 million to $19.3 million to $19.8 million to $20.2 million. On April 25, the company president sold shares under a pre-arranged plan. He got $22.29 per share.

The first quarter did come in at $20.2 million. But guidance for the current quarter was only $16.7 million to $18.7 million.

For the Divx president, the rich get richer.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

OfficeMax In The Slaughterhouse

OfficeMax (OMX) reported ugly results this AM, and paid for it dearly. Revenue went from $2.424 billion in the quarter last year to $2.436 in the most recent quarter. Gross margin fell but the company had a small profit of $58 million. It lost $14 million a year ago.

Retail store sales were flat.

The company’s efforts yielded $.77 a share. Wall St. expected $.93.

OfficeMax shares dropped over 11% to under $44, which means that they are off that much year-to-date. The 52-week high is $55.40.

The last year has not been good for OfficeMax competitors Office Depot (ODP) or Staples (SPLS) which both trade near 52-week lows. The competition among the companies makes both margins and substantial growth difficult.

Which means Wall St. should stay away.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Charter: Still A Big Cable Risk

Charter Communications (CHTR) is up 7% at the open to $3.50, which puts its one-year stock price increase at over 170%.

Charter did have good results. Revenue was up 8% to over $1.4 billion. Operating income was up to $156 million from a small loss last year. But, interest expense on the company’s huge debt was $464 million, flat with last year.

Charter is doing fairly well with the new services it provides. VoIP subscriptions rose rose by 127,000 to 573,000.

Charter has also refinanced much of its debt, bring down the cost of debt service. But, the company still has over $19 billion in long-term debt.

This makes its potential for recovery going forward unstable.

Charter does not have the capital to fight the phone companies as the come to market with their own fiber-to-the-home TV, broadband and phone product bundles. Its larger sisters like Time Warner Cable and Comcast do.

There is an argument to be made the the transaction to take Cablevision (CVC) private proves that cable companies are valuable. But, the premium on that deal was only 11%.

Charter is still a very risky bet. Jim Cramer’s take.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Novavax Pandemic Flu Vaccine 100% Effective, in Ferrets

Novavax Inc. (NVAX-NASDAQ) is up 8.5% in pre-market stock trading on positive data coming out of its pandemic flu studies.  This is not being studied on humans, as ferrets are the inoculation group.  Ferrets were inoculated with the company’s virus-like particle vaccine made from an Indonesian strain of H5N1 avian influenza.

Ferrets are supposed to represent the most relevant influenza animal model for humans, and they were then challenged with live H5N1 virus. All ferrets that received the Novavax vaccine survived, even those that received the lowest dose.  According to the Novavax, the ferrets that received Novavax’s H5N1 vaccine were protected not only against the Indonesian strain of avian flu but also were cross-protected against a separate strain originating in Vietnam; and all ferrets that received the Novavax vaccine survived.  The company says it is on target to file its first vaccine investigational new drug application by mid-year and it remains enthusiastic for a new vaccine candidate to take into clinic trials.

As a reminder, animals are almost always used before humans in determining safety and efficacy and this represents just the first of many hurdles for the company.  Many scientists discount results in many animal studies, so this should still be considered an outstanding issue until they begin human trials and we start seeing some data.  With shares up 8.5% at $3.40, that is still toward the lower-end of the 52-week trading range ($2.56 to $6.48).

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IBM Brings Nanotech To Chips

IBM (IBM-NYSE) is using nanotechnology in new chips, well sort of.  The company is essentially boring holes with a width of 20 nanometers to run faster and use less energy. It is also claiming that the technology is basically self assembling materials and it can be added to existing manufacturing lines and applied to its current chips.  It may even boost performance by 35% or cut that amount of power consumption.  IBM does not expect to use the technology before 2009 in IBM servers and perhaps on chips made for outside customers.

Airgap (May 2007) – Using a "self assembly" nanotechnology IBM has created a vacuum between the miles of wire inside a Power Architecture microprocessor reducing unwanted capacitance and improving both performance and power efficiency.

Based on all the promises of nanotech and what is still very limited use, we’ll have to see how this really unfolds before calling this a nanotech victory.  You can read the full release from the company here.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Full Research Summary (MAY 3, 2007)

BRE raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
CNET started as Buy at B of A.
CVC cut to Neutral at Oppenheimer.
CYTC cut to Neutral at Sun Trust Robinson Humphreys.
DNDN started as Hold at AGEdwards.
GNV started as Outperform at Wachovia.
HWCC cut to Neutral at Baird.
ICE raised to Outperform at Wachovia; started as Buy at Beutsche Bank..
JBHT raised to Outperform at Baird.
LYO raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
MA raised to Buy at HSBC.
MWV cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
NDAQ started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
NMX started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
NYX started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
OFC cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
PNR raised to Outperform at CIBC.
QCOM estimates raised at Credit Suisse.
RBN raised to Outperform at FBR.
RLH cut to Neutral at Baird.
RNR raised to Buy at UBS.
SMSI cut to Mkt Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
SYMC raised to Buy at Jefferies.
UBS cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
VPHM started as Mkt Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
XRM raised to Neutral at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
May 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.