Daily Archives: May 14, 2007

Cramer Gives a Thumbs Up on Schering-Plough’s CEO (SGP)

Cramer has a series of 5 great CEOS for this week that have turned businesses around.  On tonight’s Mad Money on CNBC, Cramer gave much of a turnaround is Fred Hassan of Schering-Plough (SGP-NYSE). 

Hassan took the stock from $17.00+ to $32.00 and it looked like the business was permanent roadkill at the time.  He arrived in 2003 and took over from who he thinks was the worst drug CEO.  Hassan cleaned house with a full overhaul after a series of old fines.  His margins were up because of cost streamlining without a sacrifice to R&D expenses and the company blew out earnings expectations.  Cramer said the company has a great pipeline now and he thinks this one can go far higher.

We have featured our own list of entrenched CEO’s.  Some of these are based on results, and some are based on hype.  There are even some based on the fact that the shareholder control would make it next to impossible to get rid of the corporate leader.  No matter what company you buy, you better make sure you are happy with management.  Here was our Part 1 to the series.  Just last week we named Steve Jobs as the "most entrenched" and it would be hard to find anyone to argue against this pick today.  Larry Ellison of Oracle is on the list, and anyone investing in Oracle (ORCL-NASDAQ) better know it’s effectively his company as long he wants it that way.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Bracing For Wal-Mart Earnings

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT-NYSE) reports earnings Tuesday morning, but the truth is that the company already tempered expectations with last week’s sales numbers.  First Call expectations put the results at $0.68 EPS and $87.08 billion in revenues.  It also said its $0.68 to $0.71 EPS range would be difficult to hit.  Translation: Wall Street is already bracing for a lower number, and if not it should be.

Last week’s -3.5% decline in same-store-sales was worse than the -1.1% drop expected and not even that was enough to really hit the stock.  It is just hard to imagine the company making any great big bold projections, particularly in light of the fact that the company gave same-store-sales guidance of up 1% to up 2% for the month of May and for the entire second quarter.  Wall Street is looking for results in Q2 (July-07) of roughly $0.79 EPS on revenues of roughly $93 Billion.  It is hard to imagine anyone demanding more than this based on its own forward sales expectations.

Calling for new leadership other than Lee Scott is something that at some point gets old regardless of the reason and regardless of the history.  Nothing can be blamed solely on one person, but leadership and policies trickle down through the ranks and at this point a fresh leader with fresh initiatives (or even fresh sounding) would be a welcome sight by investors.  We are at a cycle where public opinion and the image of leadership create premiums and discounts to companies.  That implies that the company is at a discount because of a poor perception, and that is a large of why its shareholders are not feeling much love.  Wal-Mart will always have the masses to answer to as long as it has such a large presence and it is likely that some critics would never be pleased, but at some point the obvious answer comes to light: a new leader with a fresh face and a new message can be re-energizing. 
Wal-Mart’s shareholder meeting is in June and these issues over newer fresh goals and ‘maybe’ new leadership may take on more steam ahead of that.  As long as the company doesn’t make any drastic changes tomorrow, the near-term news is probably already priced in the stock.  The company isn’t alone in what was just a slower retail report and certainly isn’t alone in what are going to be tough 2007 to 2006 comparable store sales.  It feels like the street is almost ready to accept what may only be "less bad news."  We’ll know Tuesday morning.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Microsoft: The Zune Goes To China

Microsoft (MSFT) wants more control of making the Zune, so it is putting up a factory in China, of all places. Perhaps labor costs are low there.

The Zune multimedia player has not sold very well. The Apple (AAPL) iPod continues to beat it up and take its lunch money. As MarketWatch points out: "Microsoft has said it expects to sell more than 1 million Zune players by the end of the company’s fiscal year in June. By contrast, Apple shipped 10.5 million iPods in the March quarter alone."

The factory will make a new version of the Zune, perhaps called Zune 2.0. The new incarnation will be thinner and have Flash-based hardware. 

Microsoft was able to take a huge amount of share from the Sony Playstation and it took many years. Working over the iPod may prove harder.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sina’s Awful Quarter

Sina (SINA) reported after hours. Revenue rose 10% to $51.3 million. Income from operations was up modestly to $7.5 million. Both numbers were off sharply from the immediately previous quarter.

Sina is one of China’s top online media company and mobile value-added service firms. It’s in China for crying out loud, and in the internet business. It is hard to believe the revenue is not up by 2x. While advertising was up 43% over the same quarter last year, mobile service revenue fell. The company is moving away from this market due to rising costs.

But, the markets are impatient. Sina closed at $36.17, very near its 52-week high and up nearly 25% over the last six months. But, taking the slow growth to China will not help the share price.

Douglas A. McIntrye

The 52-Week Low Club

Delta (DAL) Not public for long. Fuel prices hurting everyone in industry. Down to $18.75. The high was $21.95.

Amerigroup (AGP) Drug maker GeoPharma Inc ended benefit management program with the company. Jefferies has as "underperform". Managed healthcare company stock drops to $25.01 from 52-week high of $39.44.

Spatialight (HDTV) Just keeps going lower. Unfavorable financing and delisting problems. Stock to $.15 down from 52-week high of $3.46.

Source Interlink (SORC) Magazine and DVD distributor buys magazine properties from Primedia. Wall St. does not like the deal. Shares move down to $5.53 from 52-week high of $12.89.

Whole Foods (WFMI) Still being hit over poor earnings report. Down to $39.21 from 52-week high of $70.80.

Ikanos Communications (IKAN) Company that develops fiber for broadband has bad quarter and puts in new CEO. Deutsche Securities starts as a "hold". Down to $6.92 from 52-week high of $17.10.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dow Jones: Murdoch’s Next Move

Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp (NWS) has offered the Bancroft family a seat on the board of his company.

Clever. All he wants is a meeting with the family that controls Dow Jones (DJ).

Cramer on Stop Trading (May 14, 2007)

Cramer thinks a lot of the Wal-Mart (WMT-NASDAQ) bad news has already been priced in and the eBay (EBAY-NASDAQ) Skype news could be big.  Cramer also said that the signal Charles Schwab (SCHW-NASDAQ) is showing by consolidating products just shows that much more that the retail and individual accounts have not really yet participated in the market run-up.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Dean Foods and other dairy processors to milk the Gold Organic Milk Rush

Now tell me that wasn’t the most ridiculous headline you ever read? However after reading Reuter’s headline this morning of ‘Organic milk seen flooding market, I couldn’t resist. America’s fascination with Organic foods is extreme when the same parents that cram everything organic down their kids throats once drank from the hose and ate Moon Pies like potato chips without second thought. Times have changed, even certain types of bottled water aren’t considered "good" and now that American’s are obsessed with organic foods – corporations are cashing in.

Reuter’s says – The dairy industry is expecting organic milk supply to surge by at least 40% this year from a previous annual growth rate of 20%, creating an excess of 25 million gallons, according to some estimates. Consumer demand for organic milk will continue to grow at 25% annually, leading some industry experts to predict that a retail promotion war is imminent. Dairy processors and distributors like Dean Foods (NYSE:DF), Stonyfield Farm and Organic Valley, a dairy farmers’ cooperative that sells to retail grocery chain Whole Foods Market (NasdaqGS:WFMI) and others, are welcoming the news because it provides an opportunity to expand the market and offer more organic milk-based products.

So what does all the milk talk mean? In the short run, there is an over supply, but in the years to come, organic milk is going to make companies like Dean Foods and Whole Foods some big money. Dean Foods, the No. 1 U.S. dairy processor and distributor, added 64 organic farmers in 2006, taking the total to 350 with another 167 farmers in transition. Not convinced that today’s Moms are buying organic milk? Just go hang out at Chuck E. Cheese for about 15 minutes, you will overhear more conversations about what Mom’s are feeding their kids and their kids’ growth percentiles than you could ever imagine. Its just not organic milk – its the organic yogurts, cheese, ice cream and everything else made from milk, these Mom’s have to have this stuff.

If you don’t shop for Organic milk, you’ll be alarmed at what people pay for it. Take PlanetOrganics.com, they’ll deliver it to you house for a few dimes more than you pay for it in stores but the prices are relevant, so let’s review:

Let me remind you America this is milk we are talking about here? There’s nothing magical about it, it still tastes like milk, you don’t get one free after you buy 5 of them – it’s just milk. Now I haven’t even shown you the prices on the cheeses and yogurts but you get the idea, the stuff is spendy.

Dean Foods and Whole Foods Market are trading near their 52-week lows, DF at $31 a share and WFMI at $39 a share. There’s plenty of time to get in on these stocks but just be aware that as more parents and people obsess over what they eat, organic milk and milk by-products are going to get more expensive like the price of gas. It’s ridiculous I know, but when is the last time you drank from the hose, I dare you to try it? No, I double-dog-dare you.

Frank Lara Jr.

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at franklara@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Mylan’s Shareholders Act As LBO Lenders

Mylan Labs (MYL-NYSE) is seeing its shares take a beating because it is acquiring Merck KGaA’s generic unit and Mylan is the acquirer in what is a very leveraged buyout.  It isn’t just the fact that there will be dilution, it’s the fact that the leverage today and tomorrow is going to be a large burden for years ahead.  This also just took away almost any shot that Mylan Labs could ever be considered a potential takeover target itself.

The company is taking 2 steps back to jump 6 steps forward and the 6 steps forward won’t come for several years.  This merger is supposed to be dilutive to earnings in year one, earnings neutral the following year and won’t be accretive to earnings until year three.  The value of the acquisition is a massive sum of $6.6 Billion in cash.

Mylan has a market cap of $4.4 Billion and its Q4 sales data is still outstanding with results due in 10 days.  Wall Street estimates put the current salesat roughly $1.6 Billion, so its price/sales ratio is about 2.75 after today’s 10% stock drop.  Merck KGaA’s generic unit had $2.4 Billion in its last fiscal sales, so based on a $6.6 Billion price tag this also gives the Merck KGaA a 2.75-times sales value.  Mylan isn’t overpaying on any ratios per se, except that it will be leveraging its balance sheet drastically because it will need to have more share sales and will need to issue more debt to cough up $6.6 Billion.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA-NASDAQ) trades at roughly 3.6-times sales with its approximate $30 Billion market cap and was deemed a competing bidder for the unit, and it essentially said the deal at the Mylan price didn’t make financial sense for it to pursue. 

Mylan is at least skipping the private equity cycle and offering existing and new shareholders the long-term leverage and upside.  If you owned Mylan prior to today, you see that the cost for this is at least a 10% haircut off the top.  Private equity firms are looking for more than 10% gains over the long-haul, so hopefully the Mylan equity holders pre-LBO are understanding and can see the long-term picture.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Microsoft: Market Shrugs Off Linux Patent Claims

Microsoft (MSFT) says that open source Linux violates 235 of its patents. And, the world’s largest software company wants royalties. Perhaps the whole thing will end up in court.

The Linux OS is used in a number of servers used by companies around the world, so the patent problem is not just an egg-head issue for student law reviews.

But, the market does not appear to care much, at least no in the short term.

If there is any pure play proxy for Linux OS software sales, it is RedHat (RHT). And, its stock is flat on the news. At noon, it was at $22.75, flat on light volume of 675,000 shares. On a normal day the stock trades over 2 million shares. No running for the doors here.

The movement in RedHat is counterintuitive, unless Wall St. believes that Microsoft will not push its claims. And, that may be the case. With a number of huge companies around the world using Linux in their IT infrastructure, MSFT could alienate a lot of customers if it disrupts the intricate software systems that are vital to operating large enterprises.

The long and short of it is that no one seems to care

Douglas A. McIntyre

Motorola Gets More Bad News

Motorola (MOT) management probably thought they would get a couple of weeks of restful sleep now that Carl Icahn has been dispatched. But, no such luck.

Rival Nokia (NOK) says it expects it global market share to rise to more than 36%. And, it says it is holding its pricing. The forecast is for the April through June period.

With Motorola in second place among the world’s handset makers, it is likely to be the loser as Nokia’s share rises. The larger firm did not say as much, but the market is. Motorola’s shares have traded down as much as 1% today, putting them down over 15% for the last six months.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Critical Therapeutics Inc (CRTX): Too High, Too Fast?

Share in Shares of Critical Therapeutics (CRTX) Inc are up 40% to after "the drug developer received Food and Drug Administration approval for a respiratory treatment it will market with Dey LP, an affiliate of German drug maker Merck KGaA", according to The Associated Press.

The company is tiny, with a market cap of $100 million.

The drug helps treat an ailment that can may hit between 24 and 30 million Americans, but the company’s information does indicate that it has risk factors, and the announcement has the normal disclaimers about the future of the drug and its financial benefit.

That may get to the core of the problem with relatively small pharma firms and new drug releases. In this case, there is no concrete information about what the drug is worth to the company. In the fourth quarter of last year, the company had under $3 million in revenue. Its operating loss was over $9 million.

The stock is way up now, but for how long.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Wal-Mart Skype Offering Indirectly Helps Vonage

Wal-Mart (WMT-NYSE) is increasing it electronic sales, but this morning the press release was specific to Pre-Paid Skype cards now being available in 1,800 Wal-Mart Stores. Shoppers can purchase a $20.00 pre-paid card and redeem it for Skype credit to make inexpensive international calls at rates as low as 2.1 cents per minute. Another pre-paid card is available in stores for a three-month subscription to the Skype Unlimited Calling Plan for just $8.85 for three months of unlimited Skype calls to any landline or cell phone number in the U.S. and Canada.  Up to nine different Skype Certified hardware products are available within branded Skype Internet Communications sections inside Wal-Mart stores’ electronics department. 

What is interesting here is that this indirectly helps Vonage Holdings (VG-NYSE) even though this is eBay’s (EBAY-NASDAQ) Skype service.  Vonage is under a patent fight with Verizon (VZ-NYSE), but Wal-Mart already sells a Vonage Linksys adapter.  Neither company is a one-trick pony for Wal-Mart.  Vonage shares are up just under 1% at $3.50 on the day. 

The press release cites an interesting statistic: According to the Telecommunications Industry Association, 9.9% of all landlines in the U.S. were VoIP lines in 2006, and this will rise to 34.1% by 2010.  As users get more and more used to communicating they may choose to go to a provider such as Vonage rather than choose a SkypeIn full service feature that allows incoming calls with a dedicated phone number.  Maybe it’s a small percentage but if this figure is accurate then that still leaves a lot of room for gains.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Starbucks Next Cost Problem: Biodiesel

Last week I wrote about how ethanol was increasing milk costs and how this will impact the bottom line at Starbucks (SBUX).  Today we need to look at biodiesel. Currently Brazil is famous for two things, coffee and ethanol.  Their national ethanol program has allowed them to become independent of imported oil and now they are turning their sights on biodiesel.  Researchers have found an economically viable way to turn coffee beans  into biodiesel. The oil-extraction from coffee bean rate, now at 92% to 94% means the project will begin next year and this years harvest will be affected as coffee bean supplies are built in anticipation.  The project will enable coffee producers to produce enough biodiesel to power all their farm and agricultural equipment.  Why does this matter to Starbucks?  Brazil is the worlds largest coffee producer and exporter and this study contends up to a fifth of that production will be used to produce biodiesel. 
If we go back to Econ 101, when you constrict the supply of an item and have constant or increasing demand, price must increase.  Starbucks, who already gets $5 for a cup of coffee will feel the pinch. How much are people going to be willing to pay for a cup of coffee? Like all products, there is a point of inflection where price depresses demand. In the case of Starbucks, this price is lower than commonly thought as quality coffee can now be had by the like of McDonald’s for a fraction of Starbucks prices. All coffee producers and sellers will be impacted by the price increase, but when you are at the top of the price ladder, have painfully slow growth that is already a result of those lower McDonald’s prices, that pain may be more immediate and severe. 
When you add the Brazil situation to the recently announce Ethiopia settlement that now has Starbucks paying additional royalties for that coffee, Starbucks  is now facing an onslaught on input price increase with not much wiggle room on the revenue side.  When consumers are looking at $4 a gallon for gas, will they cut back on the $5 latte and go for the $3 one at McDonalds?
I bet they will….
I hold no position in Starbucks
Todd Sullivan

Ford Motor: Unable to Ditch the Ford Family

Ford Motor Co. (F-NYSE) was up 2% and then almost 4% pre-market on Bloomberg and Reuters reports that the founding family of Ford was considering a sale of part of their stake.  The exact stake was not really known, but it doesn’t appear to matter now.  CNBC was reporting that the family has denied this.  The Ford’s share classification is such that on a fully diluted basis it controls roughly 4% of the stock, but it has roughly 40% of the votes.  So if any sale were to occur, it would be expected that it would not dilute too much of their voting power.

On situations like this you always have to wonder if the ‘news is being leaked as a rumor’ to see what reaction there would be to the news.  It wouldn’t be the first time.  That being said, the Fords probably already know that Wall Street would probably prefer for them not to have the controlling stake. 

Shares of Ford are up almost 5% pre-market, as are shares of General Motors (GM-NYSE).  When DaimlerChysler is selling more than 80% of Chrysler to Cerberus for some $7.4 Billion that’s what happens.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Does GE Even Need Yahoo!?

The Wall Street Journal (Yahoo! preview) is the latest media outlet going after General Electric (GE-NYSE) for it to uncover some value.  This report is suggesting a tie up between GE’s NBC unit and Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ).

I did get a chuckle out of this considering it was about 3 weeks ago that I was on CNBC defending a "conglomerized" GE rather than a cadre of broken up smaller growth companies.  My ‘opponent’ on the segment had suggested maybe that GE could sell NBC to Google (GOOG-NASDAQ) and I thought that was a bit odd considering that this would be a culture clash that would end up making the old Time Warner (TWX-NYSE) and the AOL staff combinations look like bliss.  But I did note that even if GE shouldn’t spin-off NBC, that if they were going to do that then they should acquire Yahoo! and Then do a spin-off in the form of a tracking stock. 

Before you go get all excited, keep in mind that all these calls for divestitures and mergers and reclassifications are really only "Bull Market Calls."  If we are in a world that is normalized without private equity buying everything, without spin-offs happening daily, and without investment banking departments shaping every single sector then these calls won’t matter so much and will be swept under the rug.

It is easy to see that GE could unlock some value.  NBC would almost certainly trade at a higher multiple than the cyclical manufacturing operations.  But…..we are living in a world where activist investors and media is able to get away with acting like spoiled school kids who make annual interest in their trust funds than their teachers make in a lifetime.  This may be the new paradigm on Wall Street, but this doesn’t last forever.  Bull markets come and go, and at the end of the day there is safety to large diversified operations rather than a bunch of pure-plays that have to keep growing rapidly no matter what.

If there was infinite backing to this notion, then you’d probably be seeing more than a 0.5% gain in Yahoo shares pre-market.  Could a deal happen?  Of course, and we even gave a strategy that would let GE have the best of both worlds IF it wants to pursue this.  But no one should be holding their breath waiting for this to occur.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Stock News (May 14, 2007)

(ACL) Alcan’s buyout bid by Alcoa is reportedly getting big interest from larger names such as Rio Tinto and others.
(BRLC) Syntax-Brillian filed to sell 25.6M shares, although the shelf was telegraphed with earnings last week.
(DCX) DaimlerChrysler is selling a majority stake in Chrysler to Cerberus Capital for $7.7 Billion; Chrysler will maintain 19.9% stake.
(FACT) First Albany is recapitalizing and will receive a $50M investment from Matlin Patterson.
(GE) GE’s NBC unit could or should merge with Yahoo! (YHOO) according to WSJ.
(GILT) Gilat Satellite $0.13 EPS vs $0.11e.
(INFT) Inforte gets a $4.25 cash buyout from Business & Decision.
(MMC) Marsh & McClennan announced $500M accelerated share buyback program.
(MRK) Merck received and FDA Approvable letter of its NDA for EMEND.
(MWA) Mueller Water names new CFO.
(MYL) Mylan Labs is acquiring Merck KGaA’s generic operations for about $6.7 Billion.
(NAT) Nordic American Tanker $0.85 EPS vs $0.83e.
(NAVR) Navarre is selling its independent music distribution business.
(PLXS) Plexus CFO retiring.
(QTWW) Quantum Fuel signed an agreement to acquire a 24.9% stake in a German solar company.
(SORC) Source Interlink to acquire PRIMEDIA’s Enthusiast Media unit for about $1.2 Billion.
(SYNF) Synergy Financial being acquired by New York Community Bancorp (NYB).
(TRMK) Trimark is paying $85M to acquire DATA RETURN from Saratoga Partners.
(ULBI) Ultralife Battery accepts modified order from last week lowered from $6.9M to $2.4M.
(USBE) US Bioenergy $0.08 EPS vs $0.21e.
(VAS) VIASYS being acquired by Cardinal Health (CAH) for $42.75.
(WMT) Wal-Mart is expanding electronics offerings and will include Skype equipment.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Earlybird Analyst Calls (MAY 14, 2007)

ACOR reiterated Buy at Lazard.
AIG reitr Outperform at FBR.
ALU raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
AXCA raised to Outperform at CIBC.
CHRT raised to Neutral at HSBC.
ETEL started as Outperform at Baird.
GOL raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
GSIT started as Outperform at Baird.
NILE started as Sell at American Technology Research.
PCS started as Overweight at Lehman.
PPS raised to Neutral at B of A.
RTP cut to Neutral at HSBC.
TTEC cut to Neutral at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
VOLV target raised at JPMorgan.
WEC raised to Outperform at Baird.
XEL raised to Outperform at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2007

Daimler Soars: Europe Markets 5/14/2007

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) shares rose almost 5% on news that it had sold Chrysler.

At 5.40 AM New York time, the FTSE was down .2% to 6,554. BP (BP) was down .2% to 559. BT (BT) was up .2% to 318.75. Reuters (RTRSY) was down 1% to 807.

The DAXX rose .3% to 7,504. Deutsche Telekom (DT) was down .6% to 12.65. SAP (SAP) was up .9% to 34.83. Siemens (SI) was up .6% to 87.6.

The CAC 40 fell .1% to 6,045. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) was up 1.1% to 10.05. France Telecom (FTE) was down .5% to 21.97.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

DaimlerChysler Dumps US Unit To Cerberus

The word has hit the street that DaimlerChrysler (DCX) has sold its Chryler unit to private equity firm Cerberus, parting with an 8.1% stake. Cerberus will contribute $7.4 billion to the venture. Chrysler will retain its pension and benefits obligations.

24/ Wall St. analysis.