Daily Archives: May 22, 2007

DJIA Components Huge Rise in Short Selling (MAY-07)

We reviewed various short selling trends and noticed that most sectors were mixed to up as the April to May reached record levels.  But reviewing the 28 Dow Jones Industrial Average components that trade on the NYSE showed an unbelievable number.  24 out of 28 saw an increase in short selling.  You’ll see that the four that had less short selling in no way come close to helping out the rest.  As the DJIA continued marching on up and up to new highs day after day, that translates to pain all around for the shorts.  Here is the DJIA summary with the gains in short interest to May over April: 

STOCK               Ticker     MAY       APRIL     CHANGE
Alcoa                      AA      16.8M      15.3M     9.30%
AIG                         AIG     26.2M     16.9M     54.80%
Amer. Express     AXP     21.6M     15.4M     40.30%
Boeing                     BA     8.5M         6.0M     41.0%
Citigroup                 C       29.4M     32.4M     -9.10%
Caterpillar             CAT     11.7M     10.4M     11.76%
DuPont                    DD     18.1M     14.6M     23.90%
Disney                     DIS     47.7M     45.6M     2.40%
General Elec.         GE     53.5M     47.3M     12.90%
General Motors     GM     52.2M     49.6M     10.20%
Home Depot          HD     45.6M     37.5M     21.70%
Honeywell              HON     13.9M     6.2M     122%
Hewlett-Packard   HPQ     27.3M     27.2M     0.17%
IBM                           IBM     16.6M     19.2M     -13.30%
J & J                         JNJ     16.1M     14.4M     11.70%
JPMorgan Chase  JPM     28.2M     27.4M     2.70%
Coca-Cola                KO     27.8M     17.6M     58%
McDonalds            MCD     24.8M     16.3M     52%
3M                             MMM     9.5M     5.4M       76%
Altria                          MO     53.2M     23.8M     122.80%
Merck                      MRK     22.5M     18.6M     20.60%
Pfizer                        PFE     52.1M     50.2M     3.60%
P & G                         PG     14.2M     18.2M     -22%
AT&T                           T       39.6M     37.9M     4.40%
United Tech              UTX     9.0M     5.7M     58%
Verizon                       VZ     43.3M     33.5M     29.40%
Wal-Mart                WMT     38.1M     33.8M     12.50%
Exxon Mobil           XOM     46.6M     49.7M     -6.40%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer’s 2nd Batch of Individual DJIA Component Targets

Tonight on MAD MONEY Cramer, gave his targets for individual components.  Last night he gave the first six price targets which you can see here.

Caterpillar (CAT) is still one that people don’t understand and is going higher.  Cramer’s target is $90.00.

Citigroup (C) is the easiest because only Chuck Prince stands in the way of this being a $60.00 stock, or it could even go to $65.00.

Coca-Cola (KO) is under great leadership and Cramer has it going to $60.00 in 6-months.

DuPont (DD) isn’t just a chemical company, because they have biotech seed operations, and it may be a break on the DJIA progress but only a $55.00 target.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is the oil that has to be owned by fund holders that is shrinking shares, and even though it is overvalued he thinks his original $80.00 target was too low as it has already been blown out.

General Electric (GE) is the 6th one in DJIA order, but Cramer has to take a pass on because he "works for GE."

As noted last night, breaking out all of these stocks individually may end up being outright dangerous.  This price target can be made for an index, but trying to pick even 30 different moving parts is probably just dangerous. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Short Selling Up in Drug & Medical Stocks

Some sectors showed mixed results in the short selling, but the Big Pharma and medical instruments and related companies saw an increased activity in short selling in May versus April.  Below is the actual posting from April to May:

STOCK (Ticker)                        MAY07    APR07    Change
Pfizer (PFE)                               52.12M    50.28M    3.6%
Merck (MRK)                             22.55M    18.68M    20.6%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)    16.16M    14.47M    11.7%
Abbott Labs (ABT)                   16.39M    14.90M    10%
Wyeth (WYE)                            10.37M    9.61M       7.9%
Eli Lilly (LLY)                            14.07M    10.95M    28.5%
Bristol-Myers (BMY)                23.85M    18.75M    27.2%
Schering-Plough (SGP)        15.27M    14.09M      8.3%
Medtronic (MDT)                      15.19M    13.81M     9.9%
Boston Scientific (BSX)          24.06M    21.65M     11.1%
St. Jude MEdical (STJ)             7.13M    5.85M        21.8%
Quest Diagnost. (DGX)          17.54M    16.57M     11.1%

lower short interest…..

GlaxoSmithkline (GSK)            5.15M    4.66M    -11%
Genentech (DNA)                      8.16M    8.76M    -6.8%
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)          4.13M    5.00M    -17%
Labcorp (LH)                              3.21M    3.34M    -3.9%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Alcan Shunning Alcoa (AA, AL)

Alcoa Inc. (AA-NYSE) recently made an unsolicited offer to acquire Alcan Inc. (AL-NYSE), but after today’s close Alcan formally notified Alcoa that the offer was inadequate and not in the best interests of Alcan holders.

Yves Fortier, Chairman of Alcan’s Board of Directors: "Alcan’s Board of Directors has thoroughly evaluated Alcoa’s offer and concluded that it fails to meet the best interests of Alcan shareholders. It does not adequately reflect the value of Alcan’s extremely attractive assets, strategic capabilities and growth prospects, does not offer an appropriate premium for control of Alcan, and is highly conditional and uncertain. Furthermore, it is clear to us that Alcan and Alcoa have fundamentally different approaches and track records in creating shareholder value. We are convinced that the proposed Alcoa-led acquisition of Alcan is not the right choice for our shareholders.  We remain committed, as always, to acting in the best interests of our shareholders. Alcan has a proven record of sustainable value creation and responsible corporate citizenship. It also has a clear strategy and plan for future value creation. Given the rapidly evolving industry environment, we are continuously evaluating all options in the interest of shareholder value."

What is interesting is that Alcan at least has confirmed "despite two years of approaches by Alcoa…..," which does confirm what Alcoa had made public after its formal offer.  The odd issue here is that both companies are considered takeover candidates on their own if this did not go through, although at some point anti-trust issues may come into play on major mergers. 

Alcan has a $29.8 Billion market cap and Alcoa has a $34 Billion market cap. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Medtronic Indicated Higher on Earnings (MDT)

Medtronic (MDT-NYSE) posted quarterly results with revenues up 75 to $3.28 Billion, helped on currency by $71 million.  Net earnings were 4812 million, or $0.70 EPS but $0.66 adjusting for charges and tax benefits.  First Call estimates were $0.62 EPS and $3.27 Billion revenues.  Shares closed up 0.45% ahead of earnings in normal trading and shares are up another 1.8% at $51.75 in after-hours trading.  Unfortunately we have no guidance out of the company in this release, so this one is still an "outstanding and unresolved issue" until that is known.

MDT’s 52-week trading range is $42.37 to $54.86.

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club

Newmont Mining (NEM) Still hurting from Moody’s downgrade. Off to $38.64 from 52-week high of $56.50.

McClatchy (MNI) Has been off the lost for some time, but back now due to awful April newspaper ad numbers. Down to $28.10 from 52-week high of $47.54.

NetBank (NTBK) Friedman, Billings, Ramsey downgrades stock and says it will be "worthless". Nice take. Shares fall further to $.34 from 52-week high of $6.90.

Kongzhong (KONG) Chinese wireless company provided a second-quarter revenue forecast below current Wall Street estimates. Killed, dropping to $5.40 from 52-week high of $14.

Xinhua Fin Media (XFML) Still dropping on fall-out from Barron’s story. CFO leaves. So do key employees at proxy operation Glass Lewis. Bad day for China-based companies. Falls to $7.03 from high of $13. Only public since March. Nice work.

United Natural Foods (UNFI) Natural and organic foods distributor lowers fiscal year guidance. Down to $27.05 from $38.40.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Palm Up After Conference Cancellation

Shares of Palm Inc. (PALM-NASDAQ) saw some interesting movement today as word circulated that it had pulled out of a presentation at the J.P.Morgan Chase Technology Conference.  This is the sort of event that can put the rumor mongers to work, and that’s the case today.  This can create all sorts of buyout speculation, venture speculation and the like.  Of course it can also be for a reason such as an earnings warning, or something truly as harmless as a real scheduling conflict with upper management.

Unfortunately with Palm, whatever the real reason is you have to remember the caveat of palm rumors: "Been there, done that."  Anything is possible on a day where there are some light rumors out there of a Reserach-in-Motion (RIMM-NASDAQ) bidding interest.

Shares are up about 2% at $16.40 on the day.  The 52-week trading range is $13.41 to $20.66.  Feel free to guess away on this one, but remember

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

KongZhong (KONG) falls from grace – for now

The Motley Fool called KongZhong Corporation (KONG) the best small cap stock for 2007 back in December. They noted that KongZhong is the second-largest wireless value-added service (WVAS) provider in China, their business was "growing like a giant gorilla", and their statement about China’s WVAS potential was enticing for any investor:
The market for WVAS in China is huge; the country’s total number of cell phone subscribers has increased from 85 million in 2000 to more than 425 million today. That’s more than twice the number of cell phone users in the entire United States.

On an operational level, the company’s (KongZhong) operating income margin of 22.8% and net
income margin of 25.9% beat those of all three of its major competitors, TOM Online (Nasdaq: TOMO), Hurray! Holdings (Nasdaq: HRAY), and Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON). Combine this growth and margin superiority with a rock-solid balance sheet of zero debt and $3.40 in net cash per share — 42% of the current $8.10 stock price — and you’d think KongZhong’s stock would trade at a premium multiple to its competitors.

However today shares of KongZhong are trading around $5.50, down 23% since this morning due to a horrible earnings call. It appears the best small cap stock for 2007 is now one of the worst performers for the year.

But was the Motely Fool that far off and is it now the time to take a chance on China’s No. 1 WVAS play?

KongZhong Corp. (Nasdaq: KONG) reported a disappointing Q1 07 as far as Wall Street is concerned. Net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $2.13 million, or $0.06 per share, compared with a net income of $8.61 million, or $0.24 per share, in the same period of 2006, the company reported after Monday’s close.  That’s in line with expectations. However total revenues for Q1 07 decreased 28% from the same quarter of 2006 and decreased 15% sequentially to $20.13 million. Then the real downer is that KONG is expecting revenue of $16 million to $18 million for Q2 07, while analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect revenue of $21.2 million.

Yunfan Zhou, CEO of KongZhong said: ”The first quarter was a challenging quarter for us given the tough WVAS operating environment, and we expect that the tough operating environment is likely to continue for some time. Our total revenues were in line with the guidance. We are happy that we achieved double-digit quarter- over-quarter growth in mobile advertising revenue. We believe we are making good progress in our wireless Internet business.”

Just a few months ago, it was all about China and finding the right Chinese stock. Every investor in America was hungry to catch the wave on the growing Chinese economy — how quickly the world changes. If the CEO of KongZhong is telling us that China’s WVAS is not going to be this wonderful waterfall of money, then it’s time to take a realistic look at what KongZhong can achieve. That’s why the bears are attacking this stock today, taking it down to just a few cents above its 52-week low of $5.40. You can’t blame the guys at Fool.com and if anything, investors who thought about investing in KongZhong, should now really think about getting in while the stock is at a bottom. Does that mean this is the magic entry point and you are guaranteed a instant ROI? Of course not, but KongZhong is not going out of business, and WVAS and cell phone users in China is going to keep growing, just not at the record pace Wall Street wanted.

If anything, cell phones make sense for China, huge growth isn’t going to occur as fast because people aren’t running out to buy computers and laptops as quick as they are cell phones. This isn’t rocket science here folks, China is an emerging economy, and to think KongZhong won’t make a comeback is crazy? Of course KongZhong will come back and more cell phones are being sold there everyday. Hate the stock today, I hate it with you. But we all know everyone loves a comeback kid, and if KongZhong can start moving in the right direction, the stock will move right with it. Their outlook is still for $16 million to $18 million for the second quarter, sure its not $21.2 million, but it also isn’t a negative or a horribly small figure.

It’s easy for me to roast on the Fool for calling KONG the Best small cap stock for 2007 today. But in a few months, they may be able to turn the table on me and say, "told you so".

Frank Lara Jr.

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at franklara@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Railroads: Short Sellers Versus Buffett & Gates (UNP, NSC, CP, BNI, CNI, CSX, KSU)

Since Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, plus many others now, have gone after more railroad holdings, we thought it would be interesting to see how short sellers are acting in the names.  Supposedly you can now make money betting against Warren Buffett these days, but that all depends on YOUR timing versus HIS.  If you think that Bill Gates’ Cascade investment vehicle doesn’t have some foresight into issues 3 to 6 months ahead of time, well I won’t say it.  So here is how the short selling looks in the railroads from April to May

STOCK (Ticker)                MAY07    APR07    Change
Union Pacific (UNP)        4.41M     3.91M      12.8%
Burlington North (BNI)    6.19M      5.8M         6.1%   
Canadian Nat’l (CNI)        1.79M    1.40M      28.2%
CSX Corp. (CSX)              29.27M   27.97M    4.6%
Canadian Pac. (CP)         1.30M    1.06M        22.2%

lower short interest….

Norfolk Southern (NSC)    5.47M    7.93M    -31%
Kansas City So. (KSU)      5.30M    6.43M    -17.6%

NSC was Buffett’s top holding in the sector, and CNI was Gates’ top holding in the rails.  Both BNI and UNP were Buffett’s other holdings in the sector.

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

INTC: Intel and ST Micro Joint Venture – The Devil is in the Details

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

STMicroelectronics (STM), Intel (INTCAnnual Report) and Francisco Partners today announced they have entered into a definitive agreement to create a new independent semiconductor company from the key assets of businesses which last year generated approximately $3.6 billion in combined annual revenue. The new company’s strategic focus will be on supplying flash memory solutions for a variety of consumer and industrial devices, including cellular phones, MP3 players, digital cameras, computers and other high-tech equipment. The partners in the deal were gushing with superlatives, which you can read in the press release.

For my part, I don’t doubt that the new company exudes wonderfulness from a strategic standpoint, being “From the outset, the company will be a leading supplier of flash memory solutions for wireless communications,” with “the scale to benefit from the increasing demand for memory resulting from the growing amount of information and content that is becoming more mobile and is now based almost entirely on digital technology.” Instead, I was most interested in the structure of the deal itself:

Under the terms of the agreement, STMicroelectronics will sell its flash memory assets, including its NAND joint venture interest and other NOR resources, to the new company while Intel will sell its NOR assets and resources. In exchange, Intel will receive a 45.1 percent equity ownership stake and a $432 million cash payment at close. STMicroelectronics will receive a 48.6 percent equity ownership stake and a $468 million cash payment at close. Francisco Partners L.P., a Menlo Park, Calif.-based private equity firm, will invest $150 million in cash for convertible preferred stock representing a 6.3 percent ownership interest, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances. Concurrently, the parties have arranged for the new company to receive firm commitments for a $1.3 billion term loan and $250 million revolver. The term loan will be underwritten by a consortium of banks. Proceeds from the term loan will be used for working capital and payment to Intel and STMicroelectronics for the purchase price. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions and is expected to occur in the second half of 2007.

This structure is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, Intel and STMicroelectronics will be receiving $900 million for the 6.3% stake they give up, but Francisco Partners will only pay $150 million for it. The rest will be provided by new debt held by the venture, with the risk presumably shared proportionately among the owners.
Second, the $900 total payments to Intel and STMicroelectronics for the 6.3% they will not own effectively values the total company at $14.3 billion, or roughly 4x revenues (though that valuation overstates things a bit because the convertible preferred shares offer a superior risk/reward than regular common shares would). Alternatively, the $150 million paid for the stake would assign a valuation of just 0.7x sales. Neither appears even close to Micron’s (MUAnnual Report) 1.5x sales, for example.

More interesting still is the fact that a partner was brought in for a 6.3% stake at all. One very important consequence is that the minority partner prevents either Intel or STMicro from owning 50% or more, which affects the way the joint venture’s results will flow through to the parent company financial statements.

Intel – the Equity Method

For Intel, the ownership stake of 45.1% suggests that the new company’s results will be reported using the equity method. This means, essentially, that only the JV’s net income and equity will appear on Intel’s financial statements. Assets, liabilities, sales, expenses and pretty much everything else stays off Intel’s financials. The obvious benefit is that net profit margin will be higher as it reflects the net income (numerator) but not sales (denominator) from the JV. In addition, other ratios such as return on assets and debt/equity could potentially appear more favorable.
STMicroelectronics – Equity or Proportionate Consolidation?

For STMicroelectronics, which adheres to International Accounting Standards (IAS) but also reconciles them to U.S. GAAP due to its U.S. exchange listing, the issue is a bit more complicated.  IAS 31 states that “proportionate consolidation better reflects the substance and economic reality of a venturer’s interest in a jointly controlled entity, that is control over the venturer’s share of the future economic benefits.” Although the equity method is an allowed alternative under IAS 31, the clear preference is for STMicroelectronics to proportionately consolidate – that is, record its 48.6% share of assets, liabilities, revenue and expenses.

Yet the press release describes both STMicroelectronics and Intel’s ownership as “equity ownership stakes” which may imply that they both intend to use the equity method. That, in turn, suggests that STMicro’s 48.6% stake (making it the largest owner) somehow does not allow it to “jointly control” the entity. Perhaps Francisco Partners has an influence (such as Board membership) that is out of proportion to its 6.3% financial stake.

The Role of Francisco Partners

Without the third partner, Intel and STMicro would either have had to structure the deal to give STMicroelectronics control (which would require them to report all of the venture’s financials as their own) or to arrange a payment that would give them equal ownership. Intel would still be able to use the equity method in either situation, but perhaps would not want STMicroelectronics to be the controlling party. By bringing in the third partner, it knocks both of the primary owners into a more equal secondary status that both may consider more fair.

And of course, the more favorable financial reporting is a nice side effect.

http://www.stockmarketbeat.com/

Mixed Bag in Energy Short Selling (BP, VLO, MRO, BHI, RIG, XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, HAL, OIH)

Stock Tickers: BP, VLO, MRO, BHI, RIG, XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, HAL, OIH

The short interest for MAY 2007 is out and the oil and energy patch names is fairly mixed.  The Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) showed a 13.3% rise in the short interest with the April reading of 16.76 million shares going up to a new 19.0 million shares in May.  As you can see out of the liquid and actively traded US-based (most anyway), the list is actually pretty mixed for the month.  Fighting rising energy prices is just hard to do after a while.

STOCK (Ticker)           MAY07    APR07    Change
BP plc (BP)                   6.61M      6.13M      7.7%
Valero (VLO)                46.05M    10.78M    327%
Marathon Oil (MRO)    5.62M      5.37M       5.6%
Baher Hughes (BHI)   13.44M    12.93M    4.2%
Transocean (RIG)        14.7M      14.64M    1.7%

lower short interest…..

Exxon Mobil (XOM)         46.6M      49.78M    -6.4%
Chevron (CVX)                30.79M    32.43M    -5.1%
ConocoPhillips (COP)  17.37M    18.74M    -7.3%
Schlumberger (SLB)     31.28M    30.07M    -3.8%
Halliburton (HAL)           47.32M    113.7M    -58%   

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

AT – Alltel Corp: The Insane, The Bad & The Ugly

By Saul Sterman

At first I was going to list all the M&A deals announced to date this year and then realized that this would be the longest article I had ever written in my life. The markets are definitely different this year. I can still recall the numerous times throughout 2006 that upon reading about an acquisition I would mutter to myself the words ‘nice move’. I have yet to mutter these words this year.

While contemplating how to construct a useful commentary that would catch the essence of what is going on in the markets, I recognized that this is not just a US market phenomenon. It is global. Hence, one hypothesis below relates to none US companies.

Such being the case I put forward three hypotheses that attempt to explain the current situation.

Read More »

Shorting the Brokerage Stocks (MS, GS, BSC, AGE, JEF, RJF, MER, LEH, IAI)

Stock Tickers: MS, GS, BSC, AGE, JEF, RJF, MER, LEH, IAI

The short interest for MAY 2007 looks a bit mixed in the brokerage firm stocks from April to May, although on a net basis you can see that there was all in all a fairly large rise the short interest of the brokerage firm stocks.  The iShares US BrokerDealers (IAI) saw a short interest rise of 18% from 1.539 million in April to 1.821 million shares in May.  Merrill Lynch and Lehman Bros were the only two major brokerage firms that saw a drop in their short interest from April to May.  Here is the rest of the May short interest versus April:

STOCK (Ticker)                MAY07    APR07    Change
Morgan Stanley (MS)       10.21M    8.86M    29.9%
Goldman Sachs (GS)      8.53M    7.09M     20.7%
Bear Stearns (BSC)         6.28M    5.97M     5.2%
A.G.Edwards (AGE)         2.93M    2.84M      1.9%
Jefferies (JEF)                  6.78M    6.44M      5.2%
Raymond James (RJF)  2.95M    2.55M    15.6%

lower short interest…..

Merrill Lynch (MER)         14.41M    14.97M    -3.75%
Lehman (LEH)                 10.67M    11.08M    -3.73%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Qualcomm (QCOM) And Sun Micro (SUNW): Share Buy-Backs Don’t Help

Qualcomm’s (QCOM) board approved a $3 billion share buy-back. The stock moved down after the open and then flattened out at $46.20. Qualcomm is flat this year, while the S&P is up about 20%.

On May 16, Sun Microsystems (SUNW) said it would buy-back $3 billion in stock. That could bring in 15% of the company’s shares. The price has moved from $5.12 to $5.38 since then. That’s about 5%. But, for the last six months, the shares are down almost 5%.

The trouble with these buy-backs is that they cannot hide a troubled company. Qualcomm is still fighting with its largest customer, Nokia (NOK), and is in intellectual property disputes with rival Broadcom (BRCM). Sun has still not be able to demonstrate that it can grow without acquisitions. And, the cost cutting that has helped improve its margins is now largely over.

How about a one-time dividend?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dendreon Interest Remains Extremely High

Since Dendreon (DNDN) has gotten a bit of life this week, there have been numerous inquiries as to "Where is this stock going?" from stock investors. 

There is obviously some hope by investors that the activists will be able to push the FDA into approving Provenge for late-stage prostate cancer.  The fact that an activist group has started Provengenow.org probably says it all.  It is not yet known who started Provengenow.org’s web site because the registrar is actually "MyPrivateRegistration" if you look up the domain owner.  This web site has actually become more full with more data even since yesterday.  What is becoming more obvious is that Dendreon "may" find itself as winner because of "cancer patient activism" rather than investor activism.  This activist group was also noted yesterday on CNBC and this helped the bullish scenario’s fight yesterday.

Do not interpret this as though we are saying this is going to occur, because we can’t and won’t say that.  What is obvious though is that speculators and investors are making bets on this daily. Shares are up 45% off of their recent lows put in after the FDA issued the approvable letter with a request for more data.  A 45% move is rarely just short covering and repositioning.  Dendreon shares are also up about 13% now from where they were at the $6.33 close the day that trading resumed from the disappointing FDA action (down from a $17.74 close the prior day).

Yesterday this rose on the AUA data that was new analysis on some older data, but we still have upcoming data presentations at the ASCO conference as well.  This is definitely one of the most unique stocks currently trading.  After looking at current options prices, it looks like options traders (selling the bets, static price only rather than floating) do not expect the stock to go over $8.00 nor below $6.40 over the next 3 weeks until the June options expire.

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Openwave Shareholders Get Robbed Blind

A large shareholder in wireless software provider Openwave (OPWV) has offered to take a majority interest in the company, but for an amount less than where the shares have been trading. Neat trick.

The pirates at Harbert Management have offered $8.30 a share for 40.4 million shares. The value of the offer is $335 million for Harbert to own 62% of the company. Harbert’s plan’s plans don’t end there. "If we acquire control of Openwave, we intend to recommend that Openwave acquire BridgePort Networks on the basis of their proven management team and technology, which is well-known to Openwave, its employees and customers.

Of course, it is hard to say what BridgePort is worth because it is private.

Who would not want to control Openwave under the plan being floated? The companay has almost $325 million in cash and short term investments.The company does have some deferred liabilities and convertible notes. It is unclear what would become of those.

The current management at the company has done a poor job. The board has been looking at "strategic alternatives" including selling the company and 24/7’s view of that was posted before.

In the first quarter of this year, revenue dropped to $71 million from $113 million a year earlier. Operating profit fell from $6 million in Q1 06 to a loss of $35 million this year. The company blames its reveue drop on a transition to newer products which have not started to produce substantial revenue. That may or may not be true.

What is true is that the stock traded for over $22 last April and there would appear to be a reasonable chance that, if the company’s new products do even modestly well, the stock could move back toward that level.

Since Openwave’s shares are flat at $8.60, the market does not appear to think that the lower price of the offer is going to fly.

Douglas A. McIntyre

May Short Interest in Bank Stocks Mixed (JPM, STI, USB, NCC, STT, BAC, C, WFC, BK)

Stock Tickers: JPM, STI, USB, NCC, STT, BAC, C, WFC, BK

The short interest for MAY 2007 is out., and there is notreally any trend in the large money-center and super-regional banks sector.  We noticed an increase in the regional bank ETF short interest:  The KBW Bank ETF (KBE) rose from a short interest of 229,700 in April 2007 to 390,000 in May; and the Regional Bank HOLDRs Trust (RKH) saw its short interest of 2.48 million in April rise to 3.049 million in May; iShares Financial Sector Fund (IYF), 41.4% banking, saw its short interest of 263,100 in April grow to 330,600 in May. 

Here is the rest of the May short interest versus April:

STOCK (Ticker)                    MAY07    APR07    Change
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)    28.24M    27.47M    2.7%
SunTrust Banks (STI)        7.94M      5.81M      36%
US Bancorp (USB)             25.23M    24.8M      1.46%
National City (NCC)           26.66M    22.34M    19.3%
State Street (STT)               12.44M    9.58M      29%

lower short interest…..
Bank of America (BAC)      28.72M    32.3M     -11%
Citigroup (C)                        32.4M      29.49M    -9.0%
Wells Fargo (WFC)             35.97M    36.69M    -1.9%
Bank of New York (BK)       5.04M      6.23M      -19%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

May Short Interest in Homebuilders Up (XHB, KBH, DHI, PHM, CTX, NVR, MDC, HOV, BZH, LEN, TOL, RYL)

Stock Tickers: XHB, KBH, DHI, PHM, CTX, NVR, MDC, HOV, BZH, LEN, TOL, RYL

The short interest for MAY 2007 is out.  We noticed an increase in the number of shares in the May short interest in the beloved homebuilders, although there are some whose short interest actually fell.  The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) saw its short interest rise from 19.724 million in April up to 20.233 million shares in May, or a 2.5% increase. 

Here is the rest of the May short interest versus April:

STOCK (Ticker)               MAY07    APR07    Change
KB Home (KBH)              17.87M    17.62M    1.4%
DR Horton (DHI)              28.52M    25.01M    14%
Pulte Homes (PHM)       25.13M    23.23M    8.2%
Centex (CTX)                   16.32M    15.19M    7.4%
NVR Inc. (NVR)                961K        928K       3.5%
MDC Hldgs. (MDC)         6.82M      6.08M      12%
Hovnanian (HOV)           17.52M    15.94M    9.9%
Beazer Homes (BZH)    15.97M    14.49M    10.1%

Drop
Lennar (LEN)                   15.65M    15.9M    -1.6%
Toll Brothers (TOL)         22.75M    23.09M    -1.5%
Ryland (RYL)                    9.44M      10.7M    -11.8%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Home Depot Vs. Lowe’s: Bet On Oprah

With both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) reporting numbers in the past two weeks after the dust has settled, what should you do?  After all, both have disappointed with earnings falling  29% for Home Depot and 12% for Lowe’s.  Both have lowered expectations for the remainder of 2007 and both stocks have been losers over the past year with investors seeing their investment flat lined.  Now, eventually we all know that housing will turn around because nothing stays down forever and let’s be honest, folks do need a place to live and there are more of us every year.  There is built in demand here.  Neither Home Depot or Lowe’s will need to convince people they need to buy the products they sell, what they do need to do is convince them to get those products from them, not the other guy. 
Enter Oprah.  Probably the single most important endorsement a company or person can get today is one from Ms. Winfrey.  The mention of a book on her show instantly makes it a best seller. A personal trainer or self help personality featured on the show will find their schedule instantly filled at whatever rate they demand.  In short, if Oprah gives you the thumbs up, welcome to instant success.  Love her or hate her, her impact is undeniable.  You are probably asking yourself what this has to do with Home depot and Lowe’s.   
Oprah shops at Lowe’s.  This spring has featured various home improvement episodes like the most recent one in which Oprah did a favor for her neighbors by sprucing up their Chicago balconies.  Who did the work and got essentially an entire show long infomercial and thumbs up from Oprah? Lowe’s.
The effect of this can be seen in the latest earnings report from Lowe’s when they reported that 17 of 19 company segments experienced market share gains during the last quarter and while customers are spending less per trip, more of them (to the tune of 5.9%) are choosing Lowe’s when they shop.  While this number may seem small, it is staggering when you consider Home Depot experienced a 20% drop in store traffic during the most recent quarter.
Eventually housing will turn and the big winner will be the one with the most customers, thanks to Oprah, that will be Lowe’s.
I have no position in either Home Depot or Lowe’s
Todd Sullivan
5/22/2007

May Short Interest Rose in Chip Stocks (AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH)

Stock Tickers: AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH

The Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH) pretty much says it all, although many of the components in that are NASDAQ listed instead of NYSE.  SMH short interest rose from 23.76 million shares in April up to a 33.252 million shares in May.  Here are the following changes with the increases in short interest first (from April to May, 2007):

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its short interest rise from 45.2 million shares to 73.3 million shares.

Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its short interest rise from 30.76 million shares to 32.41 million shares.

LSI Corp. (LSI) saw its short interest rise from 38.36 million shares to 44.55 million shares.

Micron Technology (MU) saw its short interest rise from 33.14 million shares to 36.47 million shares.

National Semiconductor (NSM) saw its short interest rise from 8.43 million shares to 9.813 million shares.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) saw its short interest rise from 13.02 million shares to 13.89 million shares.

Infineon (IFX) saw its short interest drop from 3.055 million shares to 2.688 million shares.

Analog Devices (ADI) saw its short interest fall from 6.9 million shares down to 6.127 million shares.

STMicroelectronics (STM) saw its short interest fall from 7.3 million shares to 5.946 million shares.

Taiwan SemiConductor (TSM) saw its short interest drop from 11.75 million shares fell to 11.33 million shares.

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.