A rate call, not just actual rates, is what nailed the markets today. You can thank PIMCO’s Bill Gross for much of the sell-off today in equities and in longer-term bonds. If this continues, youcan look at our interest rate sensitive ETF picks.
He has issued a ‘change of heart’ at his recent annual Secular Forum to discuss global rate trends for the coming 3 to 5 years. He now believes that the old range for the 10-year US Treasury note is now 4.0% to 6.5%, up from last year’s target of 4.0% to 5.5%.
Now before you hurl yourself out the window over a higher rate and higher inflation environment, you need to consider that there are positives and this lends itself toward infrastructure, commodity, and many growth sectors. If you believe that Gross, now with Greenspan on his advisory team, is right this actually has many positive implications. What he is talking about is actually good for basic commodity companies, although it is not good for end-users buying finished goods and the companies who have signed hard contracts to produce goods at a price that they will have to purchase higher raw material prices for the commodities needed down the road.
Unfortunately, since Bill Gross is perhaps the most influential bond manager and since he regularly appears in the media many fear that a "Gross Prediction on Rates" can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
HERE IS THE SUMMARY OF SOME OF THE COMMENTS (shortened):
Over the next three to five years, our secular outlook suggests that global inflation, and certainly U.S. inflation, will accelerate mildly for a number of reasons. We also suggest that global growth continues rather strongly at a 4% to 5% pace, which is typical of what we’re experiencing now.
That combination, I suppose, is not necessarily bond-friendly, especially in light of some of the changes that may take place in terms of financial flows—the recirculation of reserves from foreign central banks, et cetera. As a result, we’ve raised our forecast range for global interest rates, moving the range for 10-year U.S. Treasuries to 4.0-6.5% versus last year’s forecast range of 4.0-5.5%, for instance, which is sort of indicative of how we see the bond markets in general.
In addition, in terms of major conclusions, we think that asset managers and bond managers, to the extent that they can, should try to take advantage of global growth via minor positions in emerging market currencies. We expect the U.S. dollar to be weak going forward, for a number of reasons. And we think that commodity prices in general, based upon this strong global growth environment and the demand from the BRICs1 and the emerging market countries, will produce favorable results for commodities.
Those are our basic conclusions—not necessarily bond friendly but asset friendly in some ways, with the favored assets being emerging market currencies and commodities in terms of some of the more applicable asset categories. We also think that global stocks, especially those outside the United States, will benefit over this period of time.
MUCH CONTINUED AFTER HERE……..
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