Daily Archives: July 17, 2007

Cramer Goes for ABB (ABB)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer reviewed another one of his "European Stock Picks" series with tonight’s pick coming from Switzerland: ABB Ltd. (NYSE:ABB) as the best pure-play in infrastructure around the world.  With their focus on power and automation technologies, he thinks this one is a winner.  Its market cap is now over $50 Billion after its shares doubled and plays up and down the entire chain for small to incredibly large infrastructure projects in Asia, Africa, Europe, and North and South America.  He also likes the Swiss ‘neutrality play’ for it to win business contracts.  Because they are huge in power lines and power plants, they have their future set.  They had old left over asbestos issues, but now they have so much cash that they said if they cannot find a good acquisition they will return capital to shareholders.

Last night he featured Philips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) in his "European Stock Picks" series he is doing all week, and you can see his comments here.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer: Krafty on Kraft Activist Investors (KFT)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer has gone out with an activist investor pick on Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE:KFT).  He said he has been negative on the stock for too long.  Cramer also noted that professionals are piggy-backing off of top activist investors Norman Peltz and Carl Icahn, so there is no reason you can’t too.  This is a situation that he hopes the CEO will actually embrace the activist holders, but thinks you can make money off this either way now that shares have pulled back since it came public that Icahn and Peltz are both shareholders.  A divestiture or other action was noted as the would-be the method of unlocking value.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IPO Filing Alert: Venture Financial Group, Venture Bank

Venture Financial Group, Inc. has filed to come public via an IPO under the ticker "VNBK" on NASDAQ.  Venture Financial is a bank holding company and parent of Washington state-chartered Venture Bank that operates in the southern Puget Sound region.

The IPO filing is for up to $46 million in securities.  Keefe Bruyette & Woods and D.A.Davidson are the only two underwriters listed in the filing.  This chartered bank has made several acquisitions in the area.  As of march 31 ithad $1.1 Billion in assets with net loans listed as $721.2 million, net deposits as $787.4 million, and shareholders equity at $87.5 million.  It also claims 12-months trailing diluted earnings per share of $1.65 EPS.  Venture Bank was established in 1979 and now operates 18 full-service financial centers located primarily along the Interstate 5 corridor in the Puget Sound region of western Washington.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Whole Foods’ Board of Directors Gets Some Gumption (WFMI, OATS)

After the close, Whole Foods Market’s (NASDAQ:WFMI) issued three press releases, all of which were expected.  This board has not been a very strong board as far as its control and dominance over management, and this is the first formality the company has made in actually having some power over the company.

The Board of Directors announced it has formed a Special Committee to conduct an independent internal investigation into online financial message board postings related to Whole Foods Market and Wild Oats Markets. The Special Committee has retained the firm of Munger, Tolles & Olson LLP to advise it during its investigation.  The Board will refrain from comment until the internal investigation is completed.

John Mackey, Chairman & CEO has issued a formal statement: "I sincerely apologize to all Whole Foods Market stakeholders for my error in judgment in anonymously participating on online financial message boards. I am very sorry and I ask our stakeholders to please forgive me." 

The company has also noted that has been contacted by the staff of the SEC late yesterday, although that can’t be any surprise.  Whole Foods said it intends to fully cooperate with the SEC and does not anticipate commenting further while the inquiry is pending.

You can be that Wild Oats (NASDAQ:OATS) is trying to figure out if it wants to sue Mackey and Whole Foods for abuse and for causing extra damage or if they just bite the bullet and try to wait out to see if the merger can go through.

We laid out some general expectations last week, and this is probably just the first part.  There was also the full chain of his posting history from the Yahoo! Message Boards.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Starbucks (SBUX) Gets New Generals

Starbucks (SBUX) has decided to move some of its most senior people around. It is not something that the military likes to do in wartime. And, it is rarely done on ships under sail. It frightens the passengers.

Martin Coles, who has served as president of Starbucks Coffee International since 2004, will become COO. Growth overseas has been stronger than in the US, so his efforts may rub of on the headquarters staff.

Jim Alling, the head of Starbucks’ U.S. business, will replace Coles as president of the company’s international unit.

There is certainly nothing sinister about the moves, but they do come during earnings season, and it is hard to see why the company would make the changes if everything were going well.

Wall St. shall see soon enough.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Microsoft’s Gaming Head Is Out (MSFT, ERTS)

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) has announced that Don Mattrick, a former president at Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:ERTS), will now lead the Interactive Entertainment Business (IEB) which oversees the Xbox® and Games for Windows® businesses. Peter Moore, corporate vice president of IEB, has decided to move his family back to the Bay Area for personal reasons and has secured another opportunity in the video games industry.  Mattrick left EA in in February 2006 and has acted as an external advisor to Microsoft since February 2007; he takes over on July 30.

Microsoft shares are down 0.9% after-hours at $30.50, but that is after the Intel numbers.  It looks like Moore will oversee the sports games at EA, after a transition period to September 1.  EA didn’t recently have a $1+ Billion charge for product recalls.  Did Microsoft have to throw in any draft picks for the trade?

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Yahoo! (YHOO): No Rally Caps

Yahoo! (YHOO) rallied like mad going into the close, rising as much as 4% starting around 2.30. It almost looked suspicious.

The rally was a mistake. Earnings were inline with expectations, and the stock was down about 2% at 4.40 PM New York time.

Revenues were $1,698 million for the second quarter of 2007, an 8 percent increase.

Revenues excluding traffic acquisition costs ("TAC") were $1,244 million for the second quarter of 2007, an 11 percent increase.Net income for the second quarter of 2007 was $161 million or $0.11 per diluted share The market expected that the company would earn 11 cents a share for the quarter on net sales of $1.24 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Free cash flow was $328 million for the second quarter of 2007 compared to $358 million for the same period of 2006. Operating income for the second quarter of 2007 was $185 million, a 19 percent .

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intel Margins Playing Against Earnings (INTC, SMH)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) posted EPS at $0.22 on $8.7 Billion in revenues, but there is a $0.03 tax item that increased earnings and there was $82 million in restructuring charges. First Call put expectations at $0.19 EPS and $8.54 Billion.  Intel shares closed up 1.4% on 108 million shares at $26.32 and anything above $26.04 on the day was an 18-month high.  Second-quarter gross margin was 46.9 percent, lower than the midpoint of the previous expectations and under the 48% expected by Wall Street.  Total microprocessor units were higher sequentially; the ASP (average sale price) was lower.  Sounds like the Avanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) processor price strategy is not an entirely ‘in the past’ issue, even if Intel is the winner.

Here is Intel’s guidance versus estimates: Q3 $9 Billion to $9.6 Billion versus expected revenues of $9.36 Billion It is putting gross margins at 52% for Q3 and 51% for 2007.  Earlier we noted how the options expiration and strike prices could act as a magnet after today going into the expiration on Friday.  Shares are now down over 4% in after-hours at $25.25, so if this holds it looks like that $25.00 was the answer.  We’ll know tomorrow.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) closed up 1.7% at $41.00 on a new recent high not seen since the end of 2003 to early 2004; although the Semiconductor HOLDRs are down more than 1% in after-hours trading. 

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer’s Chemical/Tech Pairs Trade

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer made a call for a pairs trade on chemical and tech stocks: Cramer said that traders can ring the register in chemical stocks and they can throw the money into tech stocks for a few days.  He thinks Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC), and Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) all have room to run.

Cramer also thinks that a research call saying that Crown Holdings (NYSE:CCK) is right on as a way to play Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) earnings.

This wasn’t a pure ‘pairs trade’ but as a reminder, pairs trades lately have fallen out of vogue because the cost to carry the short (broker loan call rate) is higher, but they are mostly out of vogue because so many companies that were previously deemed too big are now able to be acquired.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Yahoo! Earnings: More About Jerry Yang Than Earnings (YHOO, GOOG, MSFT)

Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) reports after today’s close and this is probably going to be a different sort of earnings report than just evaluating the actual numbers.  Estimates are $0.11 EPS and $1.24 Billion, but don’t forget that revenue estimate is ex-TAC (traffic acquisition costs).  Now that Semel is mostly out, today’s reaction may actually be more of a focus on Jerry Yang as the new man and his ability to show the company is on track (or will be) and can work some magic.  If it is just another "we are on track and we’ll update you on progress" message, then Wall Street probably won’t be too pleased. 

Yang has only been reinserted for 3 weeks in the company and shares are actually down over 4% since that date.  The truth is that this put the company in a real conundrum.  How can an internet cornerstone be turned so quickly?  It likely cannot, and if it can then you’ll see it reflected in the stock almost immediately.  Here are the forward targets Wall Street is expecting, even if these numbers are a wildcard as of now: Q3 $0.12 EPS and $1.3 Billion revenues; Fiscal Dec-2007 $0.49 EPS and $5.19 Billion in revenues. 

Options are hard to peg here, but it appears that options traders are bracing for a $0.60 to $0.65 move in either direction.  Unfortunately those options expire on Friday, so the time value will compress rapidly.  Its chart hasn’t shown anything impressive at all since the beginning of May, so the only good news there is that it was in oversold territory.  How is that good in an up-market though? 

Wall Street has been mixed about Jerry Yang so far, even though it got its wishes granted with what is mostly a Terry Semel outta-there.  We thought a Semel exit would be a good start as well, and today will be the second chance for Yang to prove he’s the man.  Sometimes it is always good to remember an old saying: "Be careful what you wish for, you might get it!"

This is all within two days before arch-rivals Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) report their quarterly results as well.  This one is looking too hard to effectively call ahead of time.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Fox (NWS) Closes Gap With YouTube (GOOG) In Online Video

New numbers from comScore show that Fox Interactive, the only portion of News Corp (NWS) had almost 53 million unique video streamers at its websites in May. Most of these are probably MySpace visitors. They number was fairly close to Google’s (GOOG) 55 million uniques. In terms of number of videos streamed, Google still has 22% of the market to Fox’s 8%.

But, the trend does show the those watching video are beginning to look at the content posted at MySpace in greater and greater numbers.

Yahoo! (YHOO) was third with 35 million uniques, followed by Time Warner (TWX) with 29 million, and Microsoft (MSFT) with 24 million.

This may be one arena where Google does not have an insurmountable lead.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Harris Poll: Brands Ain’t Stock Prices (SNE)(TM)(KO)

Another study has come out showing the lack of a connection between brand reputation and share price activity.

Harris Interactive "best brands" survey was based on a poll of 2,372 adults from June 5 through June 11. The brand that finished in first place was Coca-Cola (KO). It shares are up about 25% over the last year, about the same as the market. Next on the list is Sony (SNE). Its shares are up about 30%, a little better than the S&P. Next come Toyota (TM). Its performance over the last year is about the same as Sony’s.

In fourth place is Dell (DELL). That has to be a relief for the company. The stock is up 35%, a fair amount more than the market over the last year. The Ford (F), which has to be amazing to most investors, give the horrible sales performance at the company. Ford’s shares are up 40% over the last year.

Kraft (KFT) is next. Nelson Pelts and Carl Icahn have good taste. The company is an under-performer, up 17%. Pepsi Cola (PEP) which is up only 7%. Apple follows in ninth place. That company’s shares are up over 160%.

Last on the top ten is Honda. It shares are up the same as the S&P.

Falling off the list were GE (GE) which is up slightly less than the S&P and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) with its shares up 52%.

It’s nice to be loved, but probably better to make your shareholders money.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intel: Earnings Taking Stock to $27.50 or $25.00? (INTC, NVLS, AMD, SMH)

After today’s close we’ll get to see earnings out of processor giant Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).  Wall Street estimates out of First Call put expectations at $0.19 EPS and $8.54 Billion.  Intel shares are up more than 1% ahead of eranings, and anything above $26.04 on the day is an 18-month high.

The average buy target from Wall Street is north of $27.50.  Options activity and influence will depend on the news, but Intel shares are nestled right in between strike prices with options expiring this Friday.  In theory, that could cause either the $27.50 or $25.00 strike prices to act as a magnet with those being the nearest strike prices.  Options trading in Intel could be a huge run of volume and it won’t be surprising at all if Intel trades more than 100 million shares tomorrow.  With shares at 18-month highs, any additional strength should be considered a further break-out pattern by technicians.

Even a somewhat tepid outlook with hopes of more from Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) last night isn’t managing to put an end to tech stocks and their subsequent rally we have seen.  There is quite a bit of hope ahead of the keystone industry event Semicon West in San Francisco.  There are hopes that Novellus will get some upward revisions based on other sectors in chip-land, and those hopes are what is keeping the chip-equipment sector up today.

Even the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) are trading up more than 1% on the day ahead of Intel’s earnings.  Intel usually offers guidance, so here is the important data: Q3 $0.27 EPS and revenues $9.36 Billion; Fiscal DEC-2007 $1.08 EPS and $37 Billion in revenues.  Intel’s rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) reports earnings Thursday, and you can bet that the action in Intel will have some impact on the perception of AMD.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Earnings Preview: Schlumberger (SLB, BHI, HAL) (July 2007)

Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE:SLB) is the largest oil field services company in the world and it gives every appearance of keeping its leadership in the field. The stock price has jumped more than 18% since the end of the first quarter of 2007, and the consensus estimate ahead of earnings Friday for the second quarter is $0.95, up 23% from a year ago, but a penny less than the first quarter’s earnings. The stock closed at $90.54 on Monday and First Call/Thomson puts a mean analyst target price for the stock at $94.21, so there is still room for the company to grow.

SLB competitor Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI) got hammered last week when it released guidance lowering its earnings estimate from $1.17 to $1.07 to $1.09. BHI’s problems come from its operations in Canada’s oil sands, where it expects less activity and lower profits. That should be no surprise. Development in the oil sands has hit a couple of speed bumps: environmental concerns, especially over the vast amounts of water needed to process the gooey muck; and higher labor and materials cost.

SLB doesn’t have the same exposure in North America. It’s main operations are elsewhere, including a recent operating contract with Venezuela’s PdVSA to manage rigs and provide engineeering services to the fields PdVSA recently "acquired" from Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). SLB’s WesternGeco division is also acquiring more small software companies that will further enhance its leadership position in exploration for new resources. 

SLB is solid, really solid, and its strategy and execution have been near perfect. It could even be argued that Schlumberger’s winning deal after deal isthe ‘tipping-point’ reason that Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) is changing itscorporate headquarters flag.  We’ll find out Friday if the company can maintain its flawless execution.

Paul Ausick
July 17, 2007

Banks Eat Private Equity Debt (JPM)(GS)

Bloomberg is reporting that JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and several other large investment banks have had to keep $11 billion in private equity debt.

"The banks have had to dig into their own pockets to finance parts of at least five leveraged buyouts over the past month because of the worst bear market in high-yield debt in more than two years", data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Some of the deals that have yet to be funded include TXU (TXU) and First Data (FDC)

If the problem become more severe, it is certainly not out of the question that several money center banks and investment firms would have to take large hits to their P&Ls. Beyond that that big question is what occurs if one of the big private equity deals simply fall apart. Beyond lawsuits that is.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sprint (S): What Happended To The Cellphone?

Perhaps consumers don’t get confused by all of the things that new handsets will do. But, the price of the features may bother them. Take pictures, Download music, Record video. Get on internet. Text. IM.

Sprint (S) has come out with a new phone that has a GPS capacity so that you can always know where your friends are. The service will be launched with a company called Loopt Inc.’s and will cost $2.99 a month. That’s on top of all of the other charges for running a handset.

The time may come when cellular providers are offering to rich a mix of features. At some point, the features will being to compete with one another for the budget that customers have for their cell service. The will also compete for the time that consumers can devote to messing with their wireless phones.

It would seem that at some point, it becomes a zero sum game and a lot of companies supplying services and applications start to lose.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Metabasis Therapeutics (MBRX): Another Biopharma Microcap Implodes

Metabasis Therapeutics (MBRX) is off 56% to $3 after its diabetes drug candidate CS-917 failed to significantly lower blood sugar in a mid-stage trial. The company has traded as high as $8.64 in the last year.

It is another example of the "one trick pony" microcap biopharma’s that have nothing to offer but a one product trial. In the last quarter, the company lost over $9 million on revenue of $3.4 million. It loss has been about the level for each of the last four quarters. Add to this that the company had a market cap of $250 million within the last year.

Amazing risk.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dell Target Hike (DELL, MSFT, INTC, AMD)

This morning, Credit Suisse is giving a little boost to shares of Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL).  The broker has reiterated its "Outperform" rating on the stock, but has hiked its price target from $32.00 to $35.00 based on recent efforts.  This may not seem substantial on first glance, but this translates into a 10% upside call to what now may be 20% upside in the stock (at least according to Credit Suisse).

The recent entrance into retail store sales is the main culprit for the call, although that will of course impact working capital and gross margin based upon having to keep more inventory outside of its traditional just-in-time model.  Some of this will be offset by the restructuring plan and the 10% workforce cuts.  One area that is worth noting is that this also points to a recovering domestic corporate spending trend, which has been elusive for the PC maker.

Shares of Dell are up 0.4% pre-market to $29.06.  With Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reporting this week, we should get a more clear picture on the overall health of the PC-market in the US and internationally.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

It’s Hard Not To Be Proud of Coca-Cola (KO, PEP)

Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:KO) has reported $0.85 EPS vs. $0.82 estimate from First Call. The net EPS was $0.80 after a $0.05 in one-time charges.  Revenues were the real gainer with $7.73 billion, compared to estimates of $7.345 billion and compared to last year’s $6.48 billion.  Total unit case volume increased 6% for the quarter, although North American unit case volumes declined 2% in the quarter.  The 9% international case volumes led to the strong gains.  Part of the international gains can directly be tied to the weak dollar and strength in overseas purchasing power.

It is hard to imagine that you will see much as far as negative analyst calls with these numbers this strong.  After the round of upgrades seen earlier in the year, it’s probably safe to expect more positive comments from Wall Street.  As a reminder, this is one of the Warren Buffett holdings that has been reviewed.

In pre-market trading, Coca-Cola shares are up more than 1% at $54.45, within a few pennies of the $54.49 highs over the last 52-weeks.  No trades have been seen in rival Pepsico (NYSE:PEP).

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Stock News (July 17, 2007)

(ADTN) Adtran $0.28 EPS versus $0.28 estimate.
(AIZ) Assurant CEO and CFO received SEC WELLS NOTICE.
(ASD) American Standard noted as a positive ahead of split-up by Cramer on MAD MONEY.
(CVO) Cenveo is acquiring Commercial Envelope.
(DJ) Dow Jones has reportedly reached some terms with News Corp. over the merger according to WSJ reports; actual status varies from source to source so consider this still an outstanding issue until formal statements are made from one or both companies.
(ELS) Equity Lifestyle $0.59 EPS vs $0.58 estimate.
(ENCY) Encysive retained Morgan Stanley to assist in strategic review.
(FCFS) First Cash Financial $0.27 EPS vs $0.26 estimate.
(JNJ) J&J $1.05 EPS vs $1.00 estimate.
(KEY) KeyCorp $0.86 EPS vs $0.70e; raised guidance as well, but unsure if comparable.
(KO) Coca-Cola $0.85 EPS vs. $0.82 estimate.
(LYO) Lyondell is being acquired by Basell for $48.00 per share.
(MDT) Medtronic received approval for artificial disc for the neck.
(MER) Merrill Lynch $2.24 EPS vs $2.02 estimate.
(NLS) Nautilus traded down 12% after earnings.
(PHTN) Photon Dynamics sees results under plan for Q3.
(PHG) Philips Electronics noted positively as European play by Cramer on MAD MONEY.
(RF) Regions Financial $0.69 EPS vs $0.69 estimate.
(STT) State Street $1.07 EPS vs $1.01 estimate.
(WFC) Wells Fargo unveiled a money transfer program.
(WGOV) Woodward Governor noted positively by Cramer on MAD MONEY.
(XLNX) Xilinx’s Spartan-3E and MicroBlaze soft processor selected for Samsung Electronics’ latest digital video surveillance system.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.