Daily Archives: November 16, 2007

TD Ameritrade (AMTD) Eying E*Trade (ETFC) Buy-Out?

The head of TD Ameritrade (AMTD) today indicated that his firm might have an interest in buying troubled discount broker E*Trade. AMTD might get quite a deal  "We like their retail business but we must figure out a way that makes sense for both sets of shareholders," the AMTD told CNBC according to a report at MarketWatch.

Could E*Trade’s brokerage clients be separated from it banking unit? The mortgage-related problems in he company’s banking business are what caused the large write-offs that have taken ETFC’s shares down.

TD Ameritrade currently has a market cap of $11.6 billion to E*Trade’s $2.3 billion. If ETFC could spin-off the brokerage business and merge it into AMTD, it might have a valuable asset to give its shareholders–TD Ameritrade shares. But, it would take a fair amount of financial engineering to set the banking business up on its own. Its value in the market is probably nil.

But, if E*Trade’s troubles continue, moving its shareholders into AMTD stock might be the safest haven the company can find for them.

Douglas A. McIntyre

IPOs For Merrill (MER) And Citi (C) Brokerage Units?

The FT is reporting that Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C) are looking at partial IPOs of the retail brokerage units.

According to the newspaper "brokerage businesses trade on much higher earnings multiples than those of banks, which can be in single figures."

The question is whether the move could unlock value the way that EMC’s (EMC) spin-off of VMWare (VMW) did.

Probably not. The Merrill retail unit and Citi’s Smith Barney are established, cyclical businesses that cannot offer the markets the kind of dynamic growth that VWM did. It could actually be argued that as large commercial and investment banks move beyond their current mortgage-backed securities problems, it is the trading and corporate finance areas that will again be the most profitable divisions.

Until recently, Merrill’s shares had out-performed Schwab’s (SCHW) over the last five years. That was not because of the earnings of Merrill’s retail broker operations.  If this occurs, it would be a unique article out of our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" to read.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Starbucks 2008 Valuation: $18, $22, or $26 (SBUX, PEET, MCD, CBOU, THI)

We wanted to run some up and down scenarios for Starbucks now that the noise from the research calls have gotten out of the way and now that the post-earnings dust has settled.  All calculations are made from its earnings release and its own guidance and we left those off to save space.

STARBUCKS TODAY & AHEAD
 

At $23.00, its trailing P/E is 26.4, operating margins fell 0.3% to 11.2%; comparable sales growth for the year was 5% (only 4% for last quarter).  Starbucks had 10,684 stores in the U.S. as of September 30, 2007, and a total of 15,011 if you include international stores.  2,571 of those were opened in the last year. 

It plans to open another 2,500 net stores globally in 2008, with 900 of those owned and 700 licensed in the U.S. alone. Revenue growth is estimated at 17% to 18%.  Its 2008 diluted earnings were put at $1.02 to $1.05 (listed as 17% to 21% growth), so at $23 it has a forward P/E of 22.22 one year out. Starbucks is also launching first TV ad campaign, and that is factored into the numbers ahead.  So that means they are hoping that boost brand loyalty.

THE COMPETITIVE FIELD

Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NASDAQ:PEET) is looking for 17% to 20% in 2008 revenue growth and its forward P/E ratio for 2008 is roughly 35.  It is increasing to 15-20 new markets next year with grocery store expansion.  Unfortunately, it is only planning to expand to 30 new retail locations  in 2008.  Peet’s home and office delivery is a premium business, but unfortunately it isn’t going to be able to grow enough to make a huge difference.

The rise of McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) has been meteoric and frankly far better than most would have guessed.  Personally, it isn’t exactly our favorite go-to coffee destination.  Maybe that isn’t fair and maybe that’s holding on top an old stereotype.

Caribou (NASDAQ:CBOU) has failed miserably in throwing up any real competition and it has not been able to draw away much traction.  Its stock is on another year low today, even though Wall Street was happy its failed CEO this week announced he’d only serve as Chairman.  It has 473 locations and its market cap is now just under $94 million.

Frankly, I can’t comment on Tim Hortons (NYSE:THI) as a competitor except for a store visit  in Canada two summers ago.  Its market cap is now $7.3 Billion and had 3,110 system-wide stores (with only 352 in the U.S.).  We also haven’t even addressed Dunkin Donuts or Krispy Kreme.  There are plenty of competitors now and the field won’t merit anymore 40 P/E coffee plays.

Frankly, I still enjoy going to Starbucks the best.  Peet’s is fine too, and Caribou is behind it.  I will continue paying my $2.12 for the Venti Bold, even if my prices have gone up without me using milk in a socialism coffee ploy. 

THE VALUATION CALCULATIONS

24/7 Wall St. covers is the stock angle. We did our own in-store review around the country stores close to us back in early 2007 because we wanted to see what the company was lacking in its store before it launched on that massive growth expansion.  The company still has a lot of room for improvement.  Starbucks will go through periods of time where it sees a rise from a trading move or from valuations compared to an oversold status.  But something is obvious as a heart attack, regardless of $18, or $22, or $26 in 2008.  Starbucks’ best days as a major growth and story stock are behind it.

A lot of this depends on the stock market performance and forward P/E’s there after the real debt and oil mess gets factored in.  If that holds steady then Starbucks may get to continue to justify a 25 P/E ratio and with that we get a $25.875 price (hence $26 rounded up).  But if the market stays sketchy then we think with the growth story contracting that this deserves a PEG ratio of roughly 1.0 and we’ll only give it a realistic forward P/E ratio of 17 or 18 ahead (and therefore $17.60 to $18.63, or $18 rounded).  If the market acts as more of a trading instrument and swings up 5% to 10% and then down 5% to 10% like we are getting used to, then today’s price of $22.00 seems like a fair pivot point.

You ought to see our beer and spirits review at 10 PM tonight.  Well, maybe not.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Level 3 (LVLT) Mystery Rally

Shares in Level 3 (NASDAQ:LVLT) soared today starting at about 2 PM. Shares ended up 13% to $3.19 on almost 66 million shares.

News came out earlier in the week that Soros took a position in the company.

But, that could not be the cause.

News over the weekend?

Level 3 is being reviewed for this weekend’s "10 Stocks Under $10" Newsletter.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The 52-Week Low Club

Quebecor (IQW) Printing company announces refinancing and get downgrades. Falls to $3.03 from $14.79 high.

Virgin Mobile Usa (VM) Wider loss that expected. Falls to $8.07 from 52-week high of $15.69.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder. Nothing more to say. Drops to $3.05 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Fannie Mae (FNM) Mortages and investigations. Bad mix. Falls to $36.86 from 52-week high of $70.57.

Atherogenics (AGIX) Problem with diabetes drug. Down to $.62 from 52-week high of $13.34.

Yrc Worldwide (YRCW) Weak trucking trends. Down to $17.39 from 52-week high of $47.09.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Big Lots Stock Uglier Than Its Stores (BIG, TUES, WMT)

Shares of discount retailer Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) are seeing shares get hit pretty hard in a crummy discretionary spending environment.  The 2.1% drop to $19.98 is under the $20.21 52-week low, and that is actually getting close to a "cut in half" from that $36.15 high just back in May.

When this appeared on this list, it was almost sort of a snicker with "gee, no wonder" response.  Big Lots finds itself in a strange retail spot.  It isn’t Wal-Mart, but it competes for the same dollars from much of the same customers.  It isn’t a dollar-store, although it competes for those same dollars.  It’s really a hodge podge store that buys clearance or maybe close-outs in bulk, but there store merchandise changes and isn’t really static.  It’s basically like a Tuesday Morning, but messier and less organized and full of the stuff Tuesday Morning wouldn’t want to stock. 

I researched this one before for a Wal-Mart comparison before a planned CNBC visit.  It isn’t even in that league, and frankly it’s need to exist is something to consider.  The good news is that it does have customers who still go there looking for deals, even if they don’t always know what they are going to look for.  It’s also quite profitable and is expected by all to remain that way.  It’s even expected to see some growth in 2008 and a low P/E ratio of under 15 won’t scare anyone away.  So my personal opinion about the place is immaterial, although if a company could use some store re-habs it is Big Lots.

Stocks hitting 52-week lows do so for a reason.  It noted last week that its same store sales were down 0.5% for October, but total sales were down 1.6% year over year.  The company posts its earnings on Friday, November 20, 2007, so it is hard to imagine any miraculous recovery here before then.  At least not on its own.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pardus Capital Management To Take Delta (DAL) Merger To Shareholders

Pardus Capital Management, which has taken a position in Delta (DAL), is going to push a merger with United (UAUA) by taking the proposal to other shareholders.

Odd as it may seem, the meeting will be hosted by Merrill Lynch (MER).

The Friday get together will provide a forum for Pardus and its adviser Gordon Bethune, the former chief executive of Continental Airlines Inc to present their analysis to investors, sources close to the situation said, according to Reuters.

While, in theory, a merger would cut competition and allow for an increase in fares, it would depend on whether other large airlines like American (AA) are willing to give up market shares. Putting the two companies together should also bring down costs.

Shares in United are up 30% this year, so stockholders should be happy. But the stock of Delta is flat.

Look grim for Delta management.

Douglas A. McIntyre

FedEx Comes Clean, and Punishes Transports (FDX, UPS, YRCW)

FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) is seeing shares trade lower today on an earnings warning.  Rapidly rising oil prices and a slowing economy with lower shipping volumes are unable to be entirely hedged.

The air cargo shipper has announced that earnings for the second quarter ending November 30, 2007 are now expected to be in a lower range of $1.45 to $1.55 per diluted share.  The company had recently offered guidance in a range of $1.60 to $1.75. For the full fiscal year, the company now expects earnings of $6.40 to $6.70 per diluted share, also lower than the previous forecast of $6.70 to $7.10.

FedEx shares are down 4% pre-market to a new recent low at around $97.25, and its 52-week trading raneg is $99,00 to $121.42.  Brown isn’t escaping this entirely.  UPS (NYSE:UPS) is seeing shares trade down 1.5% at $72.00, but that is not a new recent low as its 52-week trading range is $68.66 to $79.72.  Even the truckers are feeling it.  YRC Worldwide, (NASDAQ:YRCW) is seeing a 1.5% drop to $19.80 in pre-market trading, and that would make for a new year low too.

Just this morning Goldman Sachs was increasing its chances for the R-Word….. and oil crawled back to above $94 this morning.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Garmin Ltd. Secures Its Future (GRMN, NVT, NOK)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN) decided to take the steps that insure its future is secure.  The personal navigation device maker has signed a 6-year extension to the agreement with NAVTEQ (NYSE:NVT) (soon to be part of Nokia-NOK) for digital map data for location based solutions and vehicle navigation. The agreement allows Garmin to continue using NAVTEQ data through 2015, but this may really be a 10-year deal as Garmin has an option to renew for an additional 4-years.

Subsequently, Garmin has also announced today that in light of these developments it does not intend to pursue its offer for Tele Atlas N.V.  So now TomTom will win teh TeleAtlas bidding.  This new agreement makes that risk almost immaterial now.

24/7 Wall St. is momentarily about to release a new Special Situation Investing Newsletter with a stock pick in the GPS, PND, and UMPCs sector that we feel should be acquired in the coming weeks to months.  The hold period we are expecting does not look like it will be a long-term position and the entire trade has the ability to be hedged with options.  We have consulted with several industry and research professionals and it is surprising that a) Wall Street has overlooked this one and b) that the company hasn’t been taken out already.

We comment on other merger developments in multiple sectors and dealing with private equity on our open distribution list.  There we provide more general summaries and previews for our subscriber products covering buyouts, spin-offs, backdoor plays into IPO’s, reogranizations, and break-up values.

Garmin shares are up more than 20% pre-market and back above $100 on over 2 million shares.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Oil Prices Rise Again As OPEC Refuse Help

Oil is back above $94 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The market is assuming that gas consumption will stay strong on holida travel and that a cold winter will also keep demand high.

More important, the US, the EU, and China have all asked OPEC to increase supply at its December meeting. The cartel has shown no intrerest in cooperating. As a matter of fact, the oil producers have indicated that they want to see a fall-off in US investment in nuclear and bio-fuel energy sources. Any real success in these areas could cut oil demand a decace of more out. And, OPEC wants to make sure it is still bringing in plenty of money then.

Douglas A. McIntyre

John Chambers Almost Taking Cisco Systems Private (CSCO)

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is seeing a pop in pre-market trading.  The network and data communications equipment giant announced that at its board of directors meeting, the board authorized up to $10 Billion more to be used for additional share repurchases of its common stock with an indefinite time period.  This will have increased the total authorized amount under the program to $62 Billion if this is fully completed.

This is only one part of the reasoning 24/7 Wall St. used in its assessment that Cisco stock shouldn’t have sold off to under $30.00 for a longer-term when you compare the stock at $30.00 in early 2004.
You can also look over the conference call commentary and see the John Chambers Q&A to see additional information.

Cisco shares are up 1.8% in pre-market trading at $29.85.  Cisco’s market cap is $178.5 Billion, so if it will have retired $62 Billion when it’s all said and done it’s almost like taking themselves partly private.  Cisco needs to remain a public company because markets change through time.  But how many companies have spent that much buying back stock that have seen the steady success that this company has?

24/7 Wall St. has not issued its price targets for 2008 for Cisco and other key technology stocks.  We’ll be issuing a summary of these  in the coming weeks to our open distribution list before a more detailed posting of each target individually on the site here.  Early in 2007 we issued a $34 price target for Cisco and that was hit right before the last earnings call.   

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Goldman (GS) Puts Recession Odds Very High

Losses related to record U.S. home foreclosures using a “back-of-the-envelope” calculation may be as high as $400 billion for financial companies, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman (GS) in New York wrote in a report dated yesterday, Bloomberg reports. This could cause overall lending to drop by as much as $1 trillion over the next two years.

The ramifications are worse than the reports states, at least on its face. Mortgage banks including Countrywide (CFC) could be further damaged by more foreclosures and less lending. This problem could spread to money center banks with large mortgage operations. HSBC (HBC) has already taken write-downs in this area of its operations. A sharp increase in bad loans would do more harm here, and capital from new loans would not come through the door to help liquidity.

The other sector that could be dragged down with a sharp spike in foreclosures is the bond operations at the large investment banks. Bear Stearns (BSC) and Citigroup (C) hardly need more financial strain on the value of their pools of financial instruments tied to mortgages. At some point the falling prices of these assets will force more losses at these banks.

The message Goldman is sending is that the financial industry in the US may not be out of the woods. It actually may be entering a worse period than it has experienced over the last five months.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AVTI, GME, THQI, BRCM, CLWR, EK, EXPE, HPQ, PWR, TGT, WFMI)

These are not the only analyst calls moving stocks today, but these are the top calls that 24/7 Wall St. is focusing on:

  • Activision (ATVI), GameStop (GME) and THQ Inc. (THQI) all cut to Market Perform from outperform at Piper Jaffray.
  • Broadcom (BRCM) raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Clearwire (CLWR) cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Eastman Kodak (EK) started as Underweight at J.P.Morgan.
  • Expedia (EXPE) raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Quanta Services (PWR) cut to Neutral at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
  • Target (TGT) cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Whole Foods (WFMI) cautious notes by Goldman Sachs ahead of next week earnings.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

AMD (AMD), In Need Of More Cash, Sells Shares To Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Development

AMD (AMD) needs more money. It appears that it got about $700 million from Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Development, accordiing to Reuters. The country that controls the fund is one of the world’s largest oil producers.

It appears that the fund now own over 8% of AMD. Why the company needs the money is not entirely clear, although it is being beaten to a pulp by larger rival Intel (INTC).

For sharesholders, it is not a good  sign.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Gannett’s (GCI) USA Today Cuts Edit Staff As Newspaper Stocks Hit Lows

Gannett (GCI) is the largest newspaper chain in the US and its prized property, USA Today, is the largest paper by total circulation. It is a bad sign then that such a large company has asked 9% of the editorial staff at its national paper to leave. According to The New York Post, the move is being made "because of declining revenue at Gannett Co.’s flagship publication".

Gannett has a large online audience for its paper’s so the move is an indication that revenue from the internet is not keeping up with falling print sales.

The move probably signals that more cuts are coming across the industry. Gannett trades below $40, near its 52-week low and down from the high of $63.50. The New York Times (NYT) shares are below $19, also near their low for the last year. The stocks of Journal Register (JRC) and McClatchy (MNI) two other chains, are down over 60% over the last year.

There is little left for the newspaper industry other than to cut people. Paper and delivery costs have already been taken down. The costs of printing and production cannot be brought lower. That leaves headcount. And, large newspapers can’t operate with just a few dozen people.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 11/16/2007

Markets in Europe were broadly lower at 6.10 AM New York time.

The FTSE fell .7% to 6,317. Barclays (BCS) was down 2.2% to 519. Prudential (PUK) was down 2.6% to 658.5.

The DAXX was off 1% to 7,594. Daimler was down 2.5% to 66.61. VW was down 1.7% to 170.11.

The CAC 40 dropped .7% to 5,520. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) fell 2.1% to 5.57. AXA (AXA) fell 2.1% to 26.98. Societe Generale fell 2.5% to 102.42.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

A Car In Every Garage, A Wii In Every Pot

Americans have certain rights. Among them are to own a car and have a square meal everyday. Most, but not all citizens enjoy those things.

Now, Nintendo wants to add to that list that everyone in the US should have one of its Wii game consoles. For a brief period a month ago its looked like the introduction of Microsoft’s (MSFT) "Halo 3" video game would help its console, the Xbox 360, move ahead of the Wii. Then Sony (SNE) cut prices on its PS3 and it appeared that the move might help it move into the lead.

Neither effort worked, at least for long. In October, sales of the Wii were, once again, way out in front. The entire industry grew rapidly, so all three companies got some benefit. Reuters wrote of the industry: "Total sales were $1.1 billion, compared with $643 million a year earlier, according to market research firm NPD."

Nintendo sold 519,000 Wii game consoles during the period. The Xbox 360 moved 366,000 units. Sony PS3 was in third place with 121,000. The PS3 is no better than a paper weight, at least in terms of Sony’s operating income.

Nintendo could sell six million Wii units in the next year, perhaps more.  There are probably 200 million adults in the US, ruling out people over 90. It really won’t take Nintendo that long to have a Wii in everyone’s hands.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Microsoft (MSFT) Wants 30% Of Search Market

Someone at Microsoft (MSFT) spent too long in the sun and baked his brain.

The world’s largest software company says that it plans to be one of the two largest players in online advertising within the next three to five years. The goal was disclosed at a UBS conference. Reuters writes "the plan, which represents Microsoft’s aspirations over the next three to five years, calls on Microsoft to increase the company’s share in Web search, page views, percentage of time on the Internet and percentage of advertising dollars."

The cornerstone for all of this to work rests on Microsoft’s assumption that it can get 30% of the search market. It has 10% now, on a good day. To do that, it would have to take perhaps 15% of that share from Yahoo!  (YHOO) and 15% from Google (GOOG). That would leave Yahoo! with less than 10% of the market. Google would fall from over 50% to a about 35%.

Finding evidence that Microsoft’s current search product is any better than Yahoo!’s is hard to come by. Almost no one disputes that Google delivers the best search results and has the lion’s share of the online search ad market.

Google spends about $2 billion a year on R&D. Will Microsoft match that? It would probably have to do that and then some to move from 10% of the market to 30% against an entrenched competitor with well over half the market.

Microsoft has made many mad claims over the years, but this one has to move to the top of the list.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Google (GOOG) To Bid For Wireless Spectrum, But Then What?

The Wall Street Journal claims that Google (GOOG) is about to invest at least $4.6 billion in buying wireless spectrum at the FCC auction in January. Owning a big piece of the wireless pie might make a good book-end with the new Google handset operating system. The OS, called Android, will work on a number of phones, is free to the consumer, and open to developers. It is not clear how Google will make money on this software, but the industry assumes that it will run advertising along side the software applications.

Figuring out the spectrum bid is a bit tougher. If Google can give consumers access to wireless broadband across the US, how does the company make money? Other wireless firms like AT&T (T) charge for time spent using the network for voice or data applications. Google certainly does not want to be viewed as another AT&T. Perhaps the search company can charge relatively low access charges and let consumers use any handset they please. But, does that handset have to be running the Google mobile OS?

Google might also use the spectrum to capture customers and then run advertising on the handsets from that user base. But, once again, how does Google get the ad onto the phone without the phone being loaded with its software.

Google cannot make money on the $4.6 billion investment it may make unless it can entice consumers to put Google mobile software on their phones. It could be that it has to offer free wireless service to do that, but the customer may not feel the Google program is any more "free" than AT&T’s. Both take away some measure of freedom in picking mobile applications and appliances.

Google may think it can make money on all of this, but it looks like a mess.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 11/16/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, the pace of capital spending in China rose quickly, making a rate increase likely.

Reuters writes that an investigation into the finances of Fannie Mae (FNM) is likely after Fortune magazine questioned the company’s accounting.

Reuters reports that Starbucks (SBUX) reported its first traffic drop.

Reuters also reports that Microsoft (MSFT) aims to be one of the top two companies in online advertising in the next three to five years.

Reuters writes that US sales of game console jumped sharply lead by the Nintendo Wii.

Reuters reports that sales of Sony’s (SNE) PS3 more than doubled in the US after the company cut the price of the product.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Google (GOOG) is prepared to buy wireless spectrum in the upcoming FCC auction. Bids could go above $4.6 billion.

The Wall Street Journal says that Gannett’s (GCI) USA Today will cut nearly 10% of its editorial staff.

The New York Times writes that online video is stealing viewer from TV.

The FT writes that China is worried that a US economic slowdown could hurt the Asian country’s growth rate.

The FT reports that Ford (F) will not close five US plants as part of a deal with the UAW.

Barron’s writes that BEA Systems (BEAS) earnings topped forecasts.

Douglas A. McIntyre