Daily Archives: December 8, 2007

Big Oil Exporting Nations To Become Importers

According to a story in The New York Times,several large oil exporters, including Mexico, may begin importing oil within the next five years. Growth of auto ownership and booming economies are driving huge demands for crude in Iran, Mexico, and Indonesia.

The paper reports “It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe.

Douglas A. McIntyre

On Concern About Hyper-Inflation, China Tightens Money Again

Chinese banks will be required to 14.5% of deposits as reserves, up from 13.5%. The new rule will take effect on December 25.

According to Bloomberg, the move will take $51 billion out of the banking system. The news service reports that The larger-than-usual increase “reflects the urgency of inflation concerns of the government,” said Liang Hong, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A Big Recall For Chrysler, A Black Eye For Detroit (GM)(F)

Chrysler is recalling over 575,000 vehicles. According to Reuters "long-term wear on the gear shift assembly could cause them to shift out of park without the key in the ignition."

The move does no good for Chrysler’s reputation and will certainly cost it money. Last week the company said it would lose $1.6 billion in 2007.

But the announcement is also very bad news for GM (GM) and Ford (F). Both companies are having their turnarounds derailed by a slowing US car market. They do not need a spreading perception that "made in Detroit" means low quality. The US car companies have been hoping that a reputation for poor workmanship is behind them

A new study from JP Power and Associates shows that Toyota (TM) still leads all car brands in customer loyalty. CNN Money writes that the Japanese company "does a better job than any car company in America of keeping its customers coming back." Almost 68% of those who previously owned a Toyota bought one again.

In the survey, GM finished second with a retention rate of 65% and Ford was fifth with 54%.

Trying to calculate what it costs to replace a car customer is probably impossible, but the figure must stretch into the hundreds of millions of dollars. A person who owns a $25,000 vehicle and moves to another manufacturer for his next purchase has to be replaced or sales and marketshare keep falling. Of course, that has been happening to all three US car companies for years.

Chrysler has not done itself any favors, but it has also undermined the reputation of the US car.

Douglas A. McIntyre