Daily Archives: May 19, 2008

US Makes Progress On Oil Consumption, But Too Late

Is the US breaking its heroin-like attachment to oil? Maybe.

In America, people are using more fuel-efficient cars, more ethanol. and less oil. According to the FT "The country’s foreign oil dependency is expected to fall from 60 per cent to 50 per cent in 2015."

If other projections about the oil industry are any indication, once a prediction covers a period of more than a year, there is a 100% chance that it will be wrong.

The debate about what the effects of demand in China, India, and the rest of the developing world will do to prices will go on indefinitely. The net increase in the need for gas and diesel for transportation and petroleum by-products for infrastructure means that the demand for crude in these regions will undoubtedly rise even if a recession slows their economies.

Use in the US may not drop further and could rise again, if the price of corn used in ethanol continues to spike or if there is a strong economic recovery benefiting industries including autos and aviation.

The trouble is more likely to be on the supply side of the books. The Saudis may have increased output, but do they have much more to give? There is at least anecdotal evidence that the older fields in Russia, the Middle East, and Mexico are past their best yields. New deposits are found, but perhaps less frequently than in the past. A very large pool located off Brazil was discovered within the last year. Once it is tapped, it will make the country one of the largest exporters.

Forecast oil use, and, by indirection, prices, is not unlike guess the temperature in Riyadh at noon twenty years from now.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Newspapers: Bad News With One Exception (NYT)(GCI)

Newspapers continued their march into oblivion with one tiny bright spot, the internet revenue for The New York Times.

Reporting April numbers, NYT said the the internet revenue in its newspaper group rose 25.6% due to growth in both display and classified advertising.

Revenue at the company’s papers was awful. It is hard to imagine that the NYT operations in Boston, lead by the Boston Globe, can make any money at all. Advertising revenues for the New England Media Group decreased 12.0%

At least things at the company’s franchise paper were a bit better. Advertising revenues for The New York Times decreased 0.7%. At the NYT regional papers, ad revenue dropped. 16.4%.

All of the numbers show that the Times would certainly be better off selling or spinning-off its operations outside the New York City area. None of these other properties has enough of an internet presence to recover.

At Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper chain, revenue for April declined almost 9%, and advertising sales were down 10.4% at the print paper operations. The housing downturn hit the company particularly hard. Classified real estate revenues declined 23.8 percent.

The data out of both companies should have some ripple across the entire industry. It is certainly bad news for chains with large amounts of debt, especially McClatchy (MNI) and Journal Register, which was recently delisted from the NYSE. It has become hard to make an argument that either company can make debt service as advertising continues to drop across the sector.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Insider Watch: First Solar CEO Unloads Millions In Stock (FSLR)

As part of a 10b5-1 trading plan, First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has seen its CEO Michael Ahearn unload roughly 250,000 shares of common stock.  As of the last filing, he still held some 3,073,839 shares of First Solar common stock.

While an insider sell of 250,000 shares isn’t normally a big sale elsewhere, it represents a larger number than most people will ever see in their lifetimes.  First Solar shares closed down almost 5% today at $295.90.  At that price this represents nearly $74 million worth of common stock.   But his share sale prices came mostly north of $305.00 per share on May 15 and May 16, so the amount of funds raised was probably closer to $77 million.

We looked these up on data in the SEC Filings database, which you can compare.  We suggest that you do, because sometimes these are only released a portion at a time.

Normally we do not care about share sales under an executive’s planned share sale trading plan.  But when it comes to $77 million worth of stock and when it is after a 400% run over a year is hard not to notice.

If you are worried that Ahearn may be getting out all of his stock, it isn’t even close to that.  With more than 3 million shares still held as of the last filing we saw, Mr. Ahearn still holds close to $1 Billion worth of stock.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other key share sales, IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Can Solarfun Live Up to Expectations? (SOLF)

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) has been on an absolute tear over the last week.  The Chinese PV cell manufacturer will release earnings before the open this Wednesday (May 21). 

On May 1, this was at $13.07 and on May 12 it was at $14.94.  Shareshave risen every day since then and shares now sit up some 70% in justa week.  The stock is also one that is becoming harder and harder to short sell as there is a huge short interest in the stock.

This one is also very thinly covered on Wall Street.  Estimates are $1.12 EPS and $961.8 million, but we’d caution that there are only 3 estimates and those are very wide apart from each other.  Even if this one beats, it might not please everyone.

As of the end of April, this one had 15.28 million shares listed as being in the short interest, down from 16.37 million in mid-April.  After a hug move like this and after all the ongoing doubt has been cast in many of the solar stocks, you can probably bet that the short interest is higher.  A short seller we listen to has said that Solarfun is getting harder to borrow in any size.

After today’s $25.18 close, it is still well under highs asits 52-week trading range is $8.22 to $40.19.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Union Drilling To Tap Capital (UDRL)

Union Drilling, Inc. (NASDAQ: UDRL) has filed to sell up to 15,726,540 shares of common stock in a secondary offering.  The company will sell up to 5,000,000 shares and the rest will come from existing shareholders.

It does not appear to have set which firms will handle the underwriting as of yet.

The company provide contract land drilling services and equipment, primarily to natural gas producers in the United States. In addition to its drilling rigs, it provides the drilling crews and most of the ancillary equipment needed to operate drilling rigs.

Shares closed up 1.3% at $19.80 today and shares were up 0.2% on extremely thin volume in after-hours trading. Its 52-week trading range was $10.67 to $22.09.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Amgen, Finally Some Good News (AMGN, MRK)

Shares of Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) are seeing a small gain in after-hours trading. 

The troubled biotech giant announced that findings from its head-to-head, double-blind trial comparing the effects of denosumab in post-menopausal women with low bone mass transitioned from weekly alendronate (FOSAMAX(R)) versus continued alendronate therapy on bone mineral density (BMD). This study was a one-year non-pivotal Phase III study and it demonstrated superior results for the primary and all secondary endpoints.

The primary endpoint was in the total hip and it was listed as 80% greater in the group.  This was a twice-yearly subcutaneous injection in a double-blind group of 504 women who suffered from low BMD.

FOSAMAX is an osteoporosis drug from Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK).

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Nucor Taps Capital After a Huge Run (NUE)

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) is going to pursue a public offering of 25,000,000 shares of common stock and it granted underwriters an over-allotment option of up to an additional 3,750,000 shares.  This offering is expected to close on or around May 29, 2008.

Banc of America, Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan are listed as the joint book-runners for the offering.

Based on today’s closing price, the gross proceeds before fees would be about $2.03 Billion, and the company’s market cap is listed as nearly $23.5 Billion.  Net proceeds from the offering are listed as being for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions, capital expenditures, working capital needs and repayment of debt. 

In addition to this, Nucor intends to raise up to $1 billion in the debt capital markets in the near term, subject to market conditions.

Nucor shares closed down 0.9% in regular trading at $81.32, and shares are down about another 1.7% at $79.92 after-hours.  Its 52-week trading range is $41.62 to $82.40, so the company is capturing what it can at what it has seen as top dollar.  In 2004, this stock traded under $20.00 and traded under $10.00 in 2003.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club (RBS)(NEXC)(UAL)(ICON)

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Warren Buffett will not bid of bank’s insurance unit. Down to $5.87 from 52-week high of $11.50.

Nexcen Brands Inc (NEXC) Company accountants give a "going concern" opinion. Drops to $.37 from 52-week high of $13.18.

UAL (UAL) Rumors that a big carrier may go bankrupt. Sell off to $12.49 from 52-week high of $51.60.

Iconix Brand Group (ICON) Weak outlook. Falls to $13.52 from 52-week high of $24.48.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Are Stock Option Probes Coming To An End? (BRKS, BRCM, MRVL)

It looks like the SEC is getting more focused in its options backdating probes, although it is going after some companies more than others.  Frankly, it’s about time to wrap this up as it has been going in for more than a year and as much of this goes back to the 1990’s.  This was so widespread in the 1990’s and early 2000’s and so much money was made off of these by thousands upon thousands of companies that the total fines paid are in effect small potatoes.

Here are some of the top option backdating stories stories:

  • Brooks Automation (NASDAQ: BRKS) settled its stock options probe covering the years 1996 to 2005.
  • We saw Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) see current and past executives charged just last week, although announcements had come that it had paid $12 million to make settlements in April.
  • Almost two weeks ago, we saw Marvell Tech (NASDAQ: MRVL) pay $10 million to settle their options charges.

More settlements from more companies appear to be coming soon, so stay tuned.

One might even be able to argue that if this hadn’t been so widespread and had so much funny money not been made that the housing crisis out in California might not have gotten so bad.  Sure that is a stretch, but you get the idea.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Devon Closes Another African Operations Sale (DVN)

Shares of Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) are up slightly as the company has closed on the sale of another asset in Africa.  The company closed upon the sale of its operations in Gabon, which is in Western Africa. It had previously disclosed the buyer as Oranje-Nassau Energie B.V.

The listed and closing price on the deal was $205.5 million, and the company does not expect to pay income taxes on the sale of this operation.  Devon was one we noted just last month as scoring a huge gain on its Equatorial Guinea operations.

This is consistent with its plans to exit all operations in Africa, and it has previously announced purchase and sale agreements that come to more than $3 Billion.

The company’s market cap is $54.5 Billion, so all in all this sale is a small fish in the bucket.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Another Analyst Hammers Investment Banking Stocks (LEH)(GS)(MS)

As each day passes, a larger and larger portion of the analyst community turns on banks and brokerages like a pack of wild dogs.

The majority report now seems to be that most large financial companies still have several quarters of write-offs, weak earnings, asset sales, restructuring, down-sizing, and ,in some cases, outright failures.

In a fit of irony, Citigroup downgraded Lehman (LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) saying "The second quarter has seen lower client-related trading volumes, little banking activity, losses related to ineffective hedging and reversals of gains on fair valuing liabilities." in a note published by Reuters.

If the analysis is right, these stocks and those of other brokerages are still sharply overvalued. Lehman now trades at $44, about twice it 52-week high. If it is likely to have another two or three quarters of extremely rough earnings, it may be heading back to the $20 to $30. Morgan Stanley has moved from just under $34 to $47.42. A wave of bad news there could push it back below $35.

The brokerage business may just be entering the woods.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Caution in Home Depot Ahead of Earnings After Lowe’s (HD, LOW)

This morning the earnings report out of Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) has taken shares lower.  The housing materials and hardware giant saw a near-18% drop in earnings and its numbers came in at $0.41 EPS on $607 million in net income derived from nearly a 2% drop in revenues of $12.0 Billion.  First Call was at $0.40 EPS on $12.4 Billion.  Unfortunately, its same store sales numbers for the quarter were down 8.4%.  The company sees a 6% comparable decline in the quarter and year ahead.  Lowe’s guided fiscal Jan-2009 to $1.45 to $1.55 versus prior guidance of $1.50 to $1.58 EPS, while First Call had estimates of $1.54 EPS.

The Home Depot, Inc (NYSE: HD) shows its earnings tomorrow, and it’s going to be hard to expect much better results than we saw out of Lowe’s.  There will of course be some changes seen in the Home Depot estimates now that Lowe’s has shown its numbers.  But First Call had the following estimates on last look before Lowe’s reported:

  • Q1-2009 $0.37 EPS on $17.6 Billion in revenues;
  • Q2-2009 $0.66 EPS on $20.88 Billion in revenues;
  • fiscal Jan-2009 $1.76 EPS on $72.68 Billion in revenues.

While Lowe’s is down after its forecasts for the rest of the year remained muted, it is really hard to imagine that anyone in their right mind would have believed that anything different was going to happen.  A recessionary climate, a credit crunch, and a crummy housing market are not things that just started last week.

Lowe’s shares are down 2.5% at $24.27; and the 52-week trading range is $19.94 to $33.19.   Home Depot shares are down 0.85% at $24.85; and its 52-week trading range is $23.77 to $41.19.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.      

Finding Solutions To Avoid Small Business Bankruptcies

The trouble in the business world is not just confined to big companies and banks which get covered on the front pages of newspapers. Small business in America is officially in trouble.

A study by Jupiter eSources says that "the numbers show a 49% increase in commercial bankruptcies over last year, with an average of 235 daily filings last month compared to 158 in April, 2007," according to BusinessWeek.

No one should be surprised by the spike up in the numbers, or the causes. Most small businesses face the same tight credit and rising costs of commodities that consumers do.

But, there are some potential solutions:

1. Banks are not passing along low interest rates which they get from the Fed to business borrowers. The Fed and IRS should set up a systems whereby banks get a tax break on loans made to companies with fewer than 500 employees. Banks are not going to make credit more available without an incentive.

2. The federal and state governments should give tax breaks to companies which have seen the core price of their most essential expenses pick up by more that 15% year-over-year. That means a trucking firm would get tax abatements on the cost of gas. Restaurants and bakeries would get credits on food items made from wheat, corn, and other rising commodities.

3. For people who have to travel 20 miles or more to and from work at companies with under 500 employees, there should be a commutation credit. This will encourage people to stay with smaller companies. In areas defined as those with adequate public transportation, the credit would not apply.

4. A one-time tax abatement check from the IRS. People who file personal income taxes got a rebate this year. That may be good for the economy, but it does not help if small businesses are going down left and right. The size of the check should be based on the company’s 2007 revenue.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Energy Spin-Offs Still Outstanding (ETR, CVI)

Last week, we noted in "Trouble Brewing in Oil & Gas MLP Land" that many MLP spin-offs had either not been coming public since their IPO filing dates, but there are more deals that are still either gone or still pending that would seem to be easy IPO’s in the current climate.  Entergy (NYSE:ETR) and CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVI) are two more that have pending deals, and others are canceled or pending.

Proposed MLP IPO’s are not the only ones that have either been withdrawn or are still pending. Forum Oilfield Technologies filed for an IPO in October 2007, but withdrew the filing on the same day that Plains pulled its proposed IPO. Forum cited "market conditions" as its reason from withdrawing.

Entergy (NYSE:ETR) announced a plan to spin-off its nuclear generating facilities in November 2007. Entergy has announced names and logos for the new company, Enexus Energy Corp, and for the nuclear operating company that Entergy and Enexus will create, EquaGen L.L.C. This one is still likely to happen, despite the silly names.

CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVI) announced plans in February to spin off an MLP to own and operate its nitrogen fertilizer plant and other projects. CVR Energy reports first quarter earnings after market close today.   We also covered this one much more in-depth in our Special Situation newsletter.  The company told us in a telephone call that the spin-off IPO is still pending, but that was also before the company warned on results.

The failure, or slow pace, of IPOs even affected the hot renewable market. Renewable Energy Group filed for an IPO in July 2007, and withdrew its offering in March.

Oil is north of $120.00 per barrel.  Energy IPOs, whether for MLPs or not, are having a tough time.  A logic class would surmise that investors don’t want to catch the top-tick in what may be an unproven entity after a monumental run.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Paul Ausick
May 19, 2008

ZAP Additional Funds Raised… From the U.A.E. (ZAAP)

There is some interesting financing news this morning, even if the financing is not one of massive proportions in private equity, venture capital, or in sovereign-type investments.

An OTC-BB listed stock called ZAP (OTCBB: ZAAP), a US-based electric car pure play, saw the completion of a financing pact this morning from Dubai-based The Al Yousuf Group.

The total financing was a convertible debt placement in the amount of $475,000.00, but this is after the Al Yousuf Group purchased $5 million in ZAP shares back in November.

The Al Yousuf Group is a manufacturing and distribution company in the U.A.E.  This isn’t the first "green investment" from the Arab world nor is this the first investment out of the U.A.E. for alternative energy plays.  But take this a step further.  Imagine if Zap! went out and allowed The Al Yousuf Group to either manufacture or at least coordinate some of the manufacturing of electric vehicles in the U.A.E. at some point down the road.

When Arab countries that produce oil invest in technologies that ultimately compete against oil, you know they are looking to get in on the next energy technology.

ZAP shares are up 3.6% at $0.86 in early trading today; its 52-week trading range is $0.40 to $1.16,

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IPO FILING: Metals USA Holdings (MUX)

Metals USA Holdings Corp. has filed to come public this morning via an initial public offering.  The company is taking the proposed ticker of "MUX" on NYSE.  For filing purposes, it intends to sell up to $200 million in common stock.

The company is one of the largest metal service center businesses in the United States, and is a leading provider of value-added processed carbon steel, stainless steel, aluminum, red metals and manufactured metal components.

This is a private equity held company, and investment funds affiliated with Apollo Management, L.P. are the principal stockholders.  Some proceeds will go to the company and some to shareholders, although those percentages have not been set.  It also looks like the company will repurchase some or all of $300 million of senior floating rate notes with the proceeds. 

This company is also an amalgamation after mergers. The successor company is noted as having $1.8453 Billion in 2007 revenues, with after tax net income listed as $13.9 million.  Its three segments are as follows:

  • Plates and Shapes Group (48% of 2007 net sales)
  • Flat Rolled and Non-Ferrous Group (44% of 2007 net sales)
  • Building Products Group (8% of 2007 net sales)

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IPO Filing: Vought Aircraft Holdings, Inc.

Vought Aircraft Holdings, Inc. filed late Friday to come public via an IPO in a securities sale of up to $250 million.  Vought will take the proposed ticker of "VTC" on the NYSE.

The underwriting group is listed as LEHMAN BROTHERS, GOLDMAN SACHS, and JPMORGAN.

Vought is a global manufacturer of aerostructure products for commercial, military and business jet aircraft.  It develops and manufactures fuselages, wing and tail assemblies, engine nacelles, flight control surfaces, and helicopter cabins.  Its customer base consists of Airbus, Bell Helicopter, Boeing, Cessna, Gulfstream, Hawker Beechcraft, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Sikorsky, and the U.S. Air Force.

It broke down the percentage of sales for 2007 as follows:

  • commercial 49%,
  • military 33%,
  • and business jets 18%.

From 2005 to 2007, its revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% to $1.625 Billion for the year ended December 31, 2007.  It also lists backlog as $3.4 billion at December 31, 2007 and $3.9 billion at March 30, 2008. 

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Dell Trades One Known CFO for a New Known CFO (DELL, GE)

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) has announced that Don Carty, Vice Chairman and CFO, will step down from the company.  He will remain a board member, but will end his direct duties on the effective date of June 13.

This is obviously something that wasn’t an overnight development because of the transition announcement.  Dell is naming Brian Gladden as the new CFO with the same June 13 effective date.  Gladden was President & CEO of SABIC Innovative Plastics Holding BV.  If that sounds familiar it is because this was formerly GE Plastics before General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) took that out of its portfolio.

Gladden also commented that he’s joining Dell at a time of transformation.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

IPO FILING: Safe Bulkers (SB)

Late Friday afternoon, a filing came from Safe Bulkers, Inc. for a proposed IPO of its shares.  The company has applied for the ticker "SB" on NYSE.  Pricing indications are 10 million shares in a price range expected of $20.00 to $22.00 per share.

The lead underwriters are listed as Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse; and co-managers are Jefferies & Company, Dahlman Rose & Company, Poten Capital Services, and DnB NOR Markets.

As you could guess by the name, it is a shipholding company.  Safe Bulkers is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services based in Greece, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly grain, iron ore and coal, along worldwide shipping routes for some of the world’s largest consumers of marine drybulk transportation services.  Its current fleet of 11 Japanese-built drybulk vessels, with an aggregate carrying capacity of 887,900 deadweight tons (“dwt”), has an average age of 2.6 years as of December 31, 2007 and one of the world’s youngest fleets of Panamax, Kamsarmax and Post-Panamax class vessels.

All of the shares of common stock being sold in this offering are being sold by Vorini Holdings Inc., our sole stockholder.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, secondaries, financings, spin-offs, and mergers.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AKAM, AEO, ARBA, BBI, CPWR, DVAX, FNSR, NCC, TOO, TXN)

These aren’t the only analyst calls this Monday morning, but these are the ones we are focusing on early this morning:

  • Akamai Tech (NASDAQ: AKAM) Cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) cut to Underperform at Friedman Billings.
  • Ariba (NASDAQ: ARBA) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) Added To Citigroup’s Top Picks list.
  • Compuware (NASDAQ: CPWR) Raised to Buy from Hold at Banc Of America.
  • Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ: DVAX) cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
  • Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • National City (NYSE: NCC) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Teekay Offshore (NYSE: TOO) raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
May 19, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.