Daily Archives: July 16, 2008

3 Value Scenarios for Yahoo!: $17, $22, or $30 (YHOO, GOOG, TWX, MSFT, IACI)

The ongoing Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) merger saga with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or its potential sidebar deal with Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and the fight with Carl Icahn has been covered about every which way that could be imagined.  But what we wanted to look into was how this actually compares to what various valuation scenarios could look like after the company reports earnings and more importantly after its most widely awaited annual meeting in history since the year it came public.

The next best thing to owning a crystal ball that would tell you the future is to run basic analysis on the possible outcomes over the next 20 to 35 days.  We have run various estimate scenarios for Yahoo! stock and come up with three scenarios to determine an implied value upon various outcomes.  Many would argue that intrinsic values are always near the current price of the stock, but we are trying to derive the likely forward valuations based upon the outcomes of the three scenarios. The base scenario is around the current efficient market theory and the other two are the more extreme scenarios.  We admit that there are more than three scenarios, but these are probably the most logical and are in descending order rather than any order as being the most likely.

Scenario 1:  YHOO $30.00
Scenario 1 could come in the form of either of two sub-scenarios, and both could generate up to this $30.00 value.  Sub-Scenario 1 is where Jerry Yang has a great realization and decides to admit the errors of his (and board’s) decision to go it alone.  In this scenario he is able to bring Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) back to the table and secure a reduced price of $30.00.  He’d still have future question marks, but he wouldn’t go down as the largest wrecker of value.  Sub-Scenario 2 is one where Carl Icahn is able to win all of his efforts, kick out management AND secure a revised deal in some form or fashion with Steve Ballmer as has been telegraphed.  Icahn’s board would also have to begin a rapid process of monetizing all of those added properties that Yahoo! has been able to put together itself and might require the favored approach of Icahn in a very leveraged share buyback.  Regardless of which sub-scenario were to occur, this implies that the underlying economy for web properties and for their underlying business partners does not get much worse than today.

Scenario 2:  YHOO $22.00
This second scenario is one where things continue sort of on an as-is basis today and implies something similar to a +/- 15% range above and below that level depending upon the bias of the market.  This also fits into the perfect market or efficient market theory if you are inclined to believe in that notion.  This scenario is one where Jerry Yang and board members win some of their initiatives and lose on some initiatives to Carl Icahn.  It would signal that Yang and friends are forced to capitulate at least some and are forced to make some changes whether they want to or not.  That is also somewhat the current consensus from our discussions with industry people and the traders we have spoken with.  Does that "consensus opinion" mean anything? No, because we are still two weeks or more from even seeing all the preliminary data and likely 3-weeks or 4-weeks away from knowing an outcome and from knowing if either side will accept the voted outcome.  This price range still includes an embedded call option for the possibility of future actions such as deals, takeovers, and/or value enhancements.  This price range also is more indicative of a choppy economy rather than one that is going to get far worse.  At $22.00+, YHOO trades with a current forward multiple of 45.8 based on stock prices of today. We also looked at the AUG-2008 put and and call options with a $2.00 directional bet for either in determining a portion of our +/-15% range on either side.

Scenario 3:  YHOO $17.00
This scenario is an implied value based upon the severe drop in the markets AND is geared around the basis that Jerry Yang and kids win all or most of their initiatives after the board meeting and just stay on their current path alone.  Under this scenario Carl Icahn is not able to get anything done and he has to go away to just eat losses from this entire exercise.  Also Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) would have entered into more than just discussions with another competitor like Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) via AOL or even doing a deal with Barry Diller and IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) on a post break-up basis, meaning they did a deal elsewhere and signal absolutely no hope for ANY future Yahoo! tie-up. This also assumes that Panama and other issues continued to lose some ground to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and assumes that the remaining search engine competitors and competing web properties maintain their current market share in each field with some competitors making additional inroads on gaining market share at Yahoo!’s expense even if Google’s share keeps goes higher.  For a forward valuation and assuming the estimates for 2008 are actually met, then YHOO trades here (at $17.00 hypothetical price) with a forward price/earnings ratio of about 35.  That is still expensive for a lower-growth Internet stock. Google’s current forward estimate is 26.5 based upon today’s prices and YHOO trades with a current forward multiple of 45 based on $22+ stock prices of today.  This scenario could happen even if the economy stays choppy, but would still imply serious valuation premiums to Google and to the overall market even if Yahoo! meets its estimates.  This scenario also means that Wall Street has taken away any potential deal and the embedded call option premium is taken entirely out of the share price; and it essentially removes extra premiums for other possibilities and implies a multi-year road to recovery led by unresponsive management.

We acknowledge that these are subjective scenarios and also very subjective price values, but they are based on actual data and on assumptions that are in-line with many. There is no crystal ball that can be applied here.  Of all the Wall Street analysts, the average price target is roughly $24.50 to $25.00 for a one-year target as of today.  There are many higher and many lower price targets, but there are very few targets under $17.00 and very few above $30.00.  We also looked at shorter-dated and longer dated call options and put options to try more mathematical calculations for six months out.  Either way, there are many variables that could prove any of these scenarios equally true or false.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Major Rite Aid Gains Tied To Insider Buying (RAD)

Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) has been in trouble and its perpetual turnaround has been elusive or just short-lived at best with shares having slid more than 80% from 52-week highs.  You wouldn’t know that if you just bought shares today for the first time.  Today we saw a filing from late Tuesday showing that insiders of the company have made close to $1.5 million in share purchases on the open market.

The first filing we saw was by CEO Mary Sammons who purchased 475,000 shares on the open market at $1.0016 and another 11,750 shares at $1.01.  Board members Robert Miller and George Golleher each bought 500,000 shares on the open markets at roughly the same levels.

Shares rose more than 23% to $1.42 on the news.  Insiders buying shares rarely causes such a strong move like this, but we have seen a monster sell-off before this and the company is expected to post losses for 2008 and again in 2009.  Its 52-week trading range is $0.98 to $6.13.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Yum! Guidance Only Catches Up To Analysts (YUM)

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) just posted earnings and the fast food giant posted $0.45 EPS on $2.65 Billion in revenues (after $330 million in license fees).  First Call had estimates at $0.42 EPS and $2.55 Billion revenue.

As far as guidance, the food giant gave a $0.02 higher guidance number than before so the new number is $1.89 EPS (12% growth).  First Call has estimates of $1.89 EPS, so the company is only catching up to estimates that are already ahead of the company.

Most of the comments were upbeat with total international sales up 15% and China sales up 43%.  Global same store sales rose 4% and same store sales in China rose 14%.  Even the U.S. saw 2% same store sales growth.  The company said that foreign currency conversions did account for $8 million in Q1, about the same as Q1.

Shares closed up 2.85% at $36.47 today and shares are actually down about 1% at $36.00 in the initial reaction in after-hours trading.  Its 52-week trading range (split-adjusted) is $28.37 to $41.73.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

eBay Tops Estimates, But Too Conservative Ahead (EBAY)

We just got earnings out of online auction giant eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).  The company posted $0.43 EPS (non-GAAP) and $2.2 Billion in revenues, which compares to First Call estimates of $0.41 EPS on $2.17 Billion in revenues.

The company gave guidance of $0.39 to $0.41 EPS and $2.1 to $2.15 Billion revenues and gave 2008 guidance of $1.72 to $1.77 EPS and $8.8 to $9.05 Billion revenues.  First Call had estimates of $0.41 EPS and $2.18 Billion in revenues for next quarter and $1.74 EPS and $9.01 Billion in revenues for the full year.

It ended with $3.7 Billion in cash and equivalents at the end of the quarter and spent roughly $566 million to repurchase 19 million shares of common stock during the quarter.  Operating cash flow in the quarter was $738 million and free cash flow was $617 million.

Many traders had high demands for the online auction giant but its shares closed up 4.5% at $28.10 on a strong day.  Its shares are initially trading DOWN by 5% at $26.70 in after-hours trading and its 52-week trading range is $25.10 to $40.73.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Merrill Lynch (MER) To Sell Bloomberg Shares For $4.5 Billion

According to CNBC, Merrill Lynch (MER) will sell its share in Bloomberg to trust holding Bloomberg ownership for $4.5 billion.

The same reports says that Merrill will not sell its piece of Blackrock (BLK)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The 52-Week Low Club 7/16/2008 (STX)(GCI)(GHS)(OESX)

Seagate (STX) Misses numbers and gets pounded. Down to $14.27 from 52-week high of $28.91.

Gannett (GCI) Advertising revenue falling fast. Drops to $14.62 from 52-week high of $55.37.

Gatehouse (GHS) Another big newspaper stock sells off to $.97 from 52-week high of $19.

Orion Energy Systems (OESX) Cuts revenue goal. Moves down to $4.48 from 52-week high of $22.46.

Douglas A. McIntyre

June 2008 FOMC Minutes: Discrepancies Of Fed Opinion Rising

If you love to review the totality and formal minutes you can see the full release of the JUNE FOMC MINUTES for the meeting adjourned on June 25.

Here are some of our own brief takeaways:

There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for the System’s account in the period since the previous meeting.

The Manager also reported on developments in domestic financial markets and on System open market operations in government securities and federal agency obligations during the period since the previous meeting. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified these transactions.

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Middle East ETF Launch: WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF, WSDT)

We have seen the launch today on the NASDAQ of the WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund
(NASDAQ: GULF).  WisdomTree (PinkSheets: WSDT) is the manager of the index and the ETF.

The WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund is based on the WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Index. This "GULF" ETF provides investors with exposure to approximately 70 dividend paying companies listed in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Our other emerging and developing market coverage on Africa and the Middle East is as follows:
Jim Cramer Gives Middle East Infrastructure Picks
Africa ETF Launched: Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF
Africa: The Final Emerging Market Frontier
Big IPO: Safaricom in Kenya

Read More »

Africa ETF Launched: Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF (AFK)

This week was the launch of a new ETF called Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF (NYSE: AFK) for US investors looking to place investments in Africa.  We have covered this section of emerging markets and frontier markets as most of sub-Saharan Africa is one of the last major population and geographic areas that would still be considered a true emerging market for investors. 

Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF (NYSE: AFK) offers investor’s access to a fast-growing, relatively untapped market that is becoming increasingly sought by investors looking beyond existing international investment opportunities. The "AFK" ETF is designed to track the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index, a rules based index intended to give investors access to the overall performance of companies that are headquartered in Africa or that generate the majority of their revenues in Africa.

The Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index is a freshly launched index.  Its market participants have direct or indirect exposure to the 11 markets of Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia all in Africa.  The index is weighted by float-adjusted market caps; and each country’s weight is capped at 25% with weights of individual components capped at 8% with a maximum of 15 companies per country. Companies in the index must also have a minimum market cap of $200 million and a minimum three-month average daily trading volume of $1 million.

The five countries currently representing the investable universe are South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco.  Other African countries represented where the offshore companies generate the majority of revenues are Angola, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Mali and Zambia. It also appears that three largest sectors currently represented in the index are basic resources, banking, and oil & gas.  Based on Africa’s history, those break-downs are unlikely to change in the near future.

We have covered many other opportunities for our longer-term investors who seek information on how to invest in Africa and other emerging markets.  We also want to expand this coverage as we feel this is one of the largest opportunities for investors in the decade ahead.  Key articles on investing in Africa are as follows:

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Shell Invests Further in Cellulosic Ethanol (RDS-A) (RDS-B)

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-B) and Iogen Corporation announced Tuesday an extended commercial alliance that will accelerate their development and deployment of cellulosic ethanol.

This includes a significant investment by Shell in technology development with Iogen Energy Corporation, a jointly owned development company dedicated to the advancement of cellulosic ethanol. This new arrangement will also see Shell increasing its stake in Iogen Energy Corporation from 26.3% to 50%.

Shell first took an equity stake in Iogen back in 2002.  Iogen’s first demonstration commercial plant opened in Ottawa in 2004.

Shell noted that this is a key part of Shell’s strategic program in biofuels, particularly in ‘next generation’ biofuels using non-food feedstocks.  The cellulosic ethanol fuel is made from raw materials such as wheat straw and is made to reduce CO2 emissions far lower than conventional gasoline.

As far as the terms of this investment, the figures were  not offered other than the stake in percentage terms.  Shell is also considering investing in a full-scale commercial cellulosic ethanol plant and is contributing to Iogen’s detailed feasibility and design assessment work. 

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Gannett (GCI): USA’s Largest Newspaper Company Takes A Hit

Even though the market expects poor results from newpaper companies, the actual results can come as a shock. Gannett (GCI) is off over 5% to a 52-week low of $15.93 on poor numbers.

GCI preliminary 2008 second quarter earnings per diluted share from continuing operations were $1.02 compared with $1.24 per share in the second quarter of 2007. The preliminary results, however, do not include non-cash charges to be recorded in the quarter, which have not yet been finalized, for the impairment of goodwill, other intangible assets and certain other assets

Total operating revenues for the company were $1.72 billion in the second quarter compared to $1.91 billion in the second quarter of 2007.

At USA TODAY, advertising revenues declined 16.6 percent in the second quarter compared to the year ago quarter. Paid advertising pages totaled 831 compared with 1,034 in the same quarter of 2007.

Internet ad revenue was not front and center in the company’s earnings release, which probably says a mouthful.

Due to the news, shares in Gatehouse (GHS) are off almost 5% to $.99. Shares in McClatchy (MNI) are down 2% to $4.61, and shares in Lee (LEE) are selling down over 1% to $3.17.

Douglas A. McIntyre

AMR Still Flying, With Caution (AMR)

AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR), American Airlines’ parent, reported a Q2 net loss of $1.4 Billion or -$5.77 EPS.  Results include special charges of $1.1 billion non-cash accounting charges to write down the value of certain aircraft and related long-lived assets and about $55 million of a total $70 million expected for severance-related costs.  Excluding these special charges, AMR claims a net loss of $284 million, or -$1.13 EPS.  This compares to a net profit of $317 million for Q2 of 2007.  Jet fuel prices contributed significantly to the  loss as AMR paid $3.19 per gallon for jet fuel in Q2 compared to $2.09 a gallon in the second quarter of 2007.  It paid $838 million more for fuel in  Q2-2008 over prevailing prices from the prior-year period.

If you think the company is calling itself or the sector a sure bet on the future, you might want to read the consolidated quotes.  Chairman and CEO Gerard Arpey said, "Our company continues to be severely challenged by the fuel crisis that has afflicted our entire industry, and we expect these difficulties to continue for the foreseeable future…. results were disappointing, but I am also pleased with our efforts as a company to take difficult yet necessary steps to manage through this uncertainty. While we believe the airline industry cannot continue, in its current form, at today’s record fuel prices, we also believe our decisions and hard work by employees in recent years have better prepared us to face these challenges. We remain committed to taking action — whether that relates to capacity reductions, revenue enhancements, fleet changes or other efforts to improve our financial foundation — as we work to secure our long-term future."

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Taking The “Stag” Out of Stagflation

The Labor Department said that the Consumer Price Index rose 1.1% last month. Energy alone was up 6.6%. Both figures were higher than what Wall St. expected.

Inflation is here to stay. Energy and commodities prices, the sources of most of the pressure, are global issues. They cannot be changed by the Fed. The inflation in China moves to the US though imports. The increase in oil prices from Venezuela goes into every tank of gas across the globe.

When they marched on Moscow, both the French in the 19th Century and the Germans in the 20th Century learned the improbability of winning a two-front war. The Fed, if it is indecisive, could face the same odds.

Fixing inflation should be largely abandoned as a goal because it is not one which can be obtained now.

The Fed can act, hard and fast, to get economic growth back on track. It will need to lower interest rates once more, and perhaps twice. It will need to keep the emergency lending windows open for the next several quarters. It may have to offer capital to regional banks just as it has money center banks and investment houses. It might as well hook up with the Treasury and put money into Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). With the housing crisis growing, only a fool would believe they will not need several billion dollars.

Win the winnable war, and let inflation take a course which cannot be blocked. OPEC and the world’s farmers have too much leverage, at least for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre

R-I-M Takes a Downgrade (RIMM)

Research-In-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is seeing shares trade lower this morning in pre-market trading.  The Blackberry Smartphone maker saw its shares downgraded this morning as shares were cut to "Underperform" from Hold at Needham. 

Shares were indicated down 1% before 8:00 AM but shares are now down about 2% at $103.75 and we have seen an increase in pre-market trading. With shares nearly down 1/3 from their 52-week highs, this might already be a little more buffered or insulated from a major reaction like we might have seen even a month ago.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

ERBITUX Gets Approved in Japan for Colorectal Cancer (IMCL, BMY)

ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) has just announced that ERBITUX(R) has received marketing authorization in Japan for use in treating patients with advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

This approval will allow the use of ERBITUX to treat Japanese patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-positive, curatively unresectable (inoperable), advanced or recurrent CRC, and it will allow the use of ERBITUX plus irinotecan in second and further lines of mCRC.

With this approval, ERBITUX is the first ever EGFR-targeted monoclonal antibody to be submitted for and receive marketing authorization in Japan.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) has been Imclone’s commercialization partner.  We would also note that Merck KGAA (the German Merck, not U.S.) was also in the pact that was sent in for approval back in 2007.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Delta Cautious But Not Suicidal (DAL, NWA)

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is in an odd spot this morning.  The company beat earnings and claims a gain before extraordinary items, yet it still had a wide loss on a net income basis.  The carrier posted Q2 earnings of $0.35 EPS excluding non-recurring items, $0.25 better than the First Call’s $0.10 estimate; revenues were $5.5 Billion versus the $5.39 Billion consensus. 

Delta sees Q3 operating margin of -1.3% ex-items and sees Fiscal 2008 operating margin of 0% to -2%. Delta also expects to cover approximately $3 Billion of the estimated $4 Billion raw impact of higher fuel input costs in Fiscal 2008 and expects to end  2008 with a liquidity position of about $3.2 Billion.

The company claimed 49% of its fuel consumption was hedged at $3.13 per gallon and said it realized a $313 million gain from its hedges.  Here is its fuel hedge position:
Q3 2008        48%         $2.94
Q4 2008        46%         $3.42
FY 2009        21%         $3.48
FY 2010        5%          $3.05

Delta said it plans to close its merger with Northwest (NYSE: NWA) by the end of 2008.  Shares of Delta are up nearly 5% at $4.90 in pre-market trading since the company is not sounding off the death of itself.  This also has Northwest shares up about 2.2% pre-market at $5.51.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ADCT, ADTN, CBI, CIEN, CSCO, PAC, OESX, SAI, TWTC, USB, VRAZ)

These aren’t all of the downgrades or negative analyst calls we have seen this Wednesday, but these are some of the impact analyst calls we are seeing:

  • ADC Telecommunications (NASDAQ: ADCT) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Adtran (NASDAQ: ADTN) Cut to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN) Cut to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Grupo Aeroportuario (NYSE: PAC) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Orion Energy Systems (NASDAQ: OESX) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • SAIC (NYSE: SAI) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen.
  • TW Telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC) Cut to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Cut to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Veraz Networks (NASDAQ: VRAZ) Cut to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Top Analyst Upgrades (BWA, CLWR, CLF, CSX, NTLS, PFCB, VPHM)

These aren’t all of the upgrades or positive analyst calls we have seen this Wednesday, but these are some of the impact analyst calls we are seeing:

  • BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA) Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  • Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) Started at Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) Started as Buy at KeyBanc.
  • CSX (NYSE: CSX) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Ntelos Holdings (NASDAQ: NTLS) Started as Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • P.F. Chang’s (NASDAQ: PFCB) Raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
  • ViroPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: VPHM) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.

Jon C. Ogg
July 16, 2008

Sony (SNE) Makes Certain Video Download Business Has Become A Commodity (AAPL)(AMZN)

Sony (SNE) will add the ability to download and play movies as the latest service for its PS3 video console product. Several companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) began offering similar services some time ago.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Sony said its service will let users rent or buy movies and rent television shows produced by major studios and production companies."

Once every large competitor in a field offers that same feature, it is almost certainly no longer an advantage to any of them. It becomes a commodity. Video downloads aren’t special any more.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Toyota (TM) Cries “Uncle”

Toyota (TM) has finally succumbed to the same reality that the rest of the car industry has. It will cut its global sales forecasts by nearly 4% for 2008. Most of that is certainly due to an imploding US car market.

Although the news is rough, unlike GM (GM), at least Toyota will still be around and strong in two or three years.

According to Reuters,"The world’s biggest automaker had said it would announce revised sales figures for the tough U.S. market some time this month."

It is new so obvious, it is hardly worth writing.

Douglas A. McIntyre