Daily Archives: July 24, 2008

Short Sellers Trash Financials And Autos (FNM)(FRE)(YHOO)(JAVA)(JNPR)(NOK)(QCOM)(GM)(F)(ETFC)(WB)(BAC)(ABK)(LEH)(MBI)

BearRegulators may be trying to keep short sellers out of a few financial stocks, but that is not keeping large bets against most other stocks from rising.

While some of the shorts may have moved on from the "protected" stocks, as of July 15, the short interest in Fannie Mae (FNM) rose 15.7 million shares to 154.4 million. Shares short in Freddie Mac were up 23.1 million to 105.9 million.

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Crocs Stock Now Exponentially Uglier Than Its Shoes (CROX)

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) just joined the category of stocks that the old term of "S.N.A.F.U." would apply to. 

Crocs_logo_2The maker of the faddish and notoriously ugly shoes came out warned for the quarter and for 2008.   

The warning isn’t just a small one either.  You’d think they put fungus in those ugly shoes or at least had the shoe sales people smashing the toes of loyal customers.  It’s no wonder the CEO made our fresh list of 9 CEO’s that are likely to be gone by year-end.

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Looking Inside Wynn’s Vault (WYNN)

Wynn_logo_2We just got earnings out of Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN).  The ultra-high-end casino operator posted non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 on revenues of $825.2 million (after a 50% gain in Macau revenues). Estimates from First Call were $0.93 EPS on just over $828 million in revenues. 

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Baker Hughes Unleashing Cash (BHI)

Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI) has decided to release some of its cash as a reward for its shareholders.    The company has just jacked up its dividend to $0.15 per share, up about 15% from the previous $0.13 per share dividend.  The company has also announced that it will  repurchase up to $1 billion of the company’s common stock in addition to the existing stock repurchase plan which will now have approximately $1.246 billion remaining. 

For a comparison on what this looks like, the stock yield based upon today’s prices is roughly 0.7%.  As far as comparing the share buyback, its market cap is just north of $25 Billion. 

Shares are down only about 0.3% today immediately before the close.

Jon C. Ogg
July 24, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club 7/24/2008 (CDNS)(SVU)(MU)(TIE)(CMG)(WFR)

Sad_clownMEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) Results miss Wall St. forecasts. Falls to $41.58 from 52-week high of $96.08.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Analyst downgrades. Shares off to $67.26 from 52-week high of $155.49.

Titanium Metals (TIE) Airplane customers cutting metal orders.Drops to$10.27 from 52-week high of$36.50.

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Steve Wynn About To Show His Pocketbook (WYNN)

Wynn_logoVery shortly after today’s close we are going to get a good glimmer into the overall health of casino stocks as Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) is going to be opening its back office doors for a day to show how much money the company is making.  Of the major casinos, this is the highest end of the spectrum as far as the income level of customers.

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Level 3 Becomes a Leveraged Sentiment Proxy (LVLT)

Level_3_logoLevel 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) is seeing shares under pressure today after its quarterly earnings report.  What is interesting is that nothing has really changed on the micro-level since the stock was much higher and after the open we were up almost 4% at $3.69.  But the negative market bias today is going to potentially change how Level 3 is viewed in the coming days and weeks as you will see in our additional earnings commentary and our own analysis below. 

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Pimco’s Gross Says Mortgage Write-Downs To Hit $1 Trillion

For_sale_signBill Gross of Pimco, perhaps the most famous bond investor in the world, says that bank write-offs for mortgage-related paper are far from over.

In a note today he said "PIMCO estimates a total of 5 trillion dollars of mortgage loans are in risky asset categories and that nearly 1 trillion dollars of cumulative losses will finally mark the gravestone of this housing bubble."

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With Shares Low, E*Trade (ETFC) Becomes Buy-Out Target, Again

Etrade_2E*Trade (ETFC) had a bad quarter, in large part due to provisions for loan losses of $319 million. The company posted a net loss for the quarter of $119 million against a profit of $158 million in the same quarter last year.

E*Trade did have $535 million in revenue. That was down from $669 million last year, but there are a number of signs that the firm’s discount brokerage operation is in good shape.

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Oil Patch Results Seeing Very Mixed Reviews (SU, EPD, ECA, SII)

Before today’s opening bell, four players in the oil patch released their second quarter numbers.

Suncor (NYSE:SU), Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD), EnCana (NYSE:ECA), and Smith International (NYSE:SII) all posted good numbers, but the outlook with the recent fall in prices is not so clear.  The next trend in prices of those stocks is also becoming unclear.

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Citigroup (C) To Raise $11 Billion?

Citi_logoCitigroup (C) may be looking at another $7 billion in write-offs and will probably have to raise $11 billion in new capital. If Morgan Stanley’s analysis about the big bank is right, Citi shareholders could face significant distribution.

Citi could sell assets to bring in the capital, but, in theory, that should kill share value, too.

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XM Takes on More Debt Refinancing Ahead of Merger (XMSR, SIRI)

Xm_logo_2It has been known that mandatory debt refinancing was coming down the pipe for both XM Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and for Sirius Satellite Radio inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI).  We have now seen the pricing of some $778.5 million of new senior notes offered under a Rule 144A and Regulation S under the SEC rules.  This appears to be an increased offering from the $400 million previously discussed.

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Skeptical Ahead of Microsoft’s Analyst Meeting? (MSFT)

WindowsToday is the Financial Analyst Meeting for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).  This will run from 11:30 AM EST to 6:55 PM EST and it is open to the public.

The good news is that Microsoft just released earnings, many comments, and much on guidance for fiscal 2009 just last week.  The bad news is that the company just lost Kevin Johnson, the head of its online business, who is leaving to go run Juniper Networks.  As such, the company simultaneously announced a reorganization of its Platforms & Services Division (PSD) into two groups.  Windows/Windows Live and Online Services will become separate units.

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Montezuma Visits Chipotle Shareholders (CMG, MCD)

Chipotle_logoChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) has been one of the greatest spin-off stories around in the restaurant sector this decade.  McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) spun this company off in an IPO back in early 2006 and it took just under two years for this Mexican themed fast food chain stock to rocket from under $50 to over $150 before the valuations just became too great up at those levels.

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Did SemGroup Drive the Fall in Crude Prices? (SGLP, TYG, TYN, TYY)

Late yesterday afternoon, a bankruptcy court in Delaware has approved SemGroup LP’s Chapter 11 filing. One of the company’s subsidiaries, SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ:SGLP), is publicly traded and not included in the bankruptcy filing. The court has permitted SemGroup to liquidate its assets (estimated at about $211 million) and to withhold about $50 million to pay suppliers.

A group of lenders challenged SemGroup’s plan to use some of the cash to stay in business. The lenders argue that the protections being granted "are not commensurate with the substantial amount of cash being made available to debtors."

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GT Solar IPO Timing: Genius or Insanity? (SOLR)

Gtsolar_logo_2The IPO market might be dead of late, but we did get an IPO pricing for trading this morning.  GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) did raise approximately $500 million in this pricing.  Its 30.3 million shares priced at $16.50 per share, which is in the middle of the $15.50 to $17.50 indicated range. 

Its joint book-running managers are listed as Credit Suisse and UBS, and co-managers are listed as Banc of America, Deutsche Bank, Piper Jaffray, and Thomas Weisel Partners.  These underwriters were also granted a 4.55 million share over-allotment option for the next 30-days.

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First Solar Commits to PV McFactory for Sempra in Nevada (FSLR, SRE)

First_solar_logoFirst Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) announced that the company will construct a 10 megawatt photovoltaic (PV) power plant for Sempra Generation near Boulder City, Nevada.  Sempra Generation is a unit of San Diego, California-based Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE).

First Solar will design, engineer and construct the turnkey PV power plant.  As part of the agreement it will also provide monitoring and maintenance services for the plant over its lifetime.

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Sirius & XM Confirm FCC Discussions, With Caveats (XMSR, SIRI)

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: XMSR) and SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) have come out with a release confirming that the companies are in discussions with the Enforcement Bureau of the FCC to settle outstanding enforcement matters. The companies hope to enter into a Consent Decree with the FCC terminating these inquiries.

The companies expect to agree upon several issues as part of a possible Consent Decree, and here are some of those terms:

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GE Makes a Health Care Acquisition (GE, VITL)

Ge_logoVital Signs Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is going to gap way up this morning. The company is being acquired by General Electric Co. for $860 million in cash, which comes to $74.50 per share.

Vital Signs will become part of GE Healthcare’s Clinical Systems business.  GE is essentially buying a portfolio to expand medical operations in monitoring, anesthesia, sleep therapy, and respiratory care.

If you review our exclusive interview with CFO Keith Sherin, he outlined the hurdles and benchmarks for the company to do a deal and he also noted that medical did have the "green light" to do a deal in the sector.  This is one that flew under our radar and the radar of others who were trying to peg which company GE would acquire.

Jon C. Ogg
July 24, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (APD, C, HBAN, MEOH, WFR, PPDI, SANM, SPG, WBS)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst Upgrades and positive calls we are seeing this Thursday Morning:

  • Air Products (APD) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Citigroup (C’) raised to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Methanex (MEOH) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Sanmina-SCI (SANM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Simon Property Group (SPG) Started as Overweight at Lehman.
  • Webster Financial (WBS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Jon C. Ogg
July 24, 2008