Daily Archives: September 9, 2008

Lehman (LEH): Getting Ready For Good News

Lehman_brothersLehman (LEH) will release its results tomorrow morning, a week ahead of schedule. Since the broker’s stock was down 45% today and and almost 90% from its 52-week high, it would be easy to say that the move is desperate.

The management at Lehman is probably better poker players than they are bank executives. Releasing earnings early only prevents the firm’s stock from collapsing completely if the figures are relatively good or the bank can report that it has found an investor to take a large piece of equity or buy money management unit Neuberger Berman.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 6:25 pm in Banking,

Texas Instruments: “What Slowdown?” (TXN)

Texas_instruments_logo_2It appears that not everything is as bad in mobile and communications chipsets as everyone had thought.  At least that is what the guidance from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is showing.  The company now sees its revenue for the quarter of $3.33 to $3.47 billion, a slightly tighter range than the $3.26 to $3.54 billion in revenues it had previously forecast.  First Call shows analysts expect revenue of $3.4 billion for the quarter.  As far as net income, Texas Instruments sees earnings of $0.42 to $0.46.  That compares with a prior range of $0.41 to $0.47 and First Call estimates of $0.44.

Jon C. Ogg
September 9, 2008

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 3:48 pm in Earnings, Semiconductor,

FedEx Finally Likes Fuel Prices As Economy Weakens (FDX, UPS)

Fedex_logoIt looks like lower fuel prices are turning into net gains for transportation companies.  Finally! FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) has announced that it now expects to post earnings of $1.23 per share for the first quarter.   This is well above previous earnings guidance of $0.80 to $1.00.  For fiscal 2009, it has also reaffirmed its earnings guidance of $4.75 to $5.25 per share as weaker economic conditions offset these better-than-expected first quarter results. First Call has estimates at $0.95 for the quarter and $4.98 for the year.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 3:37 pm in Earnings, Transports, , , , , , ,

IPO FILING: China Time Share Media (CTSM)

China Time Share Media Co. Ltd has filed to raise up to $75 million in an initial public offering.  The Chinese advertising service provider has applied to take "CTSM" as its NASDAQ stock ticker.  No share count nor any share price was given.  Morgan Stanley and UBS are the lead underwriters, and China International Capital and Susquehanna Financial Group are co-managers.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 3:26 pm in China, IPOs, Media, , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club 9/10/2008 (LEH)(ASK)(WFR)(ESLR)(FWLT)

Sad_clownLehman (LEH) — Is it still solvent? Drops to $7.64 from 52-week high of $67.73.

AK Steel Holding (AKS) Large stockholder sells part of holdings. Sells down to $33.05 from 52-week high of $73.07.

MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) Concerns about soft chip demand. Falls to $32.23 from 52-week high of $96.08.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Oil price drop hurts shares. Dips to $6.16 from 52-week high of $18.85.

Foster Wheeler (FWLT) No news. Sells down to $33.19 from 52-week high of $85.65.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 2:56 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

T. Boone Pickens Expects High Oil To Stay (CLNE)

Pickens_pic_2CNBC’s Maria Bartoromo interviewed oil magnate and billionaire T. Boone Pickens late this afternoon.  Pickens noted that there is likely to be a demand increase if oil goes under $100, bue he doesn’t expect it to go too far under that level.  Four dollar per gallon gas killed demand before.  As far as an energy policy, there has been no energy plan for 40 years and cheap oil discouraged the country from ever developing one.  Without a plan we’ll end up importing more oil. 

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 2:51 pm in Interview, Oil & Gas, , , , ,

News From Oz: Oil Under $100

Oil_well_logo_2Before thinking oil is cheap again, don’t get too excited.  In electronic trading there was a print showing Brent Sea Crude back under $100.00 per barrel.  While it was for a full barrel rather than one missing several gallons, it was for a brief period as traders called it a quick screen trade.  It is also being referred to as under the market at the time.  NYMEX trading still has crude trading down $3.44 at $102.90.   The good news is that there was no oil bubble because the speculators even said so.   That’s what was hitting T. Boone Pickens’ returns (he’ll be speaking on CNBC later today too).  In zero sum games the winners win at the expense of the losers.  That’s why they call it speculation.

Jon C. Ogg
September 9, 2008

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 1:59 pm in Oil & Gas

3M Wants To Expand Alternative Energy & Water Efforts (MMM)

3m_logoThere were some interesting comments out of 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) where CEO George Buckley was speaking to institutional investors and investment analysts about the company’s core business operations.  One area that may represent huge growth for the company is the alternative energy sector.  CEO George Buckley was highlighting 3M ventures in solar energy, industrial air and water filtration, mining and minerals extraction, oil and gas, and food safety.  But it also discussed alternative energy efforts in further detail and noted that the company was launching a renewable energy unit as soon as next month. 

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 11:13 am in Alternative Energy, Conglomerates, Water,

SIRIUS Guidance Fails To Score (SIRI)

Sirius_logoSIRIUS XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) updated its earnings guidance now that the company has started its merger integration.  There is news in here for the bulls and bears alike.  The company is raising expectations to $425 million for its 2009 synergies.  All of this data is the updated information and is being given at the Merrill Lynch Media Fall Preview Conference out in Marina del Ray, California.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 10:32 am in Entertainment, Media, Satellite, , , , , ,

Lehman (LEH) Shareholders Panic

Angrybear_2Lehman (LEH) is trading like United (UAUA) did yesterday. Panic has set in and the stock is off 30% to $10. The shares moved as low as $8.

Rumors in the market range from the firm facing much larger-than-expected write-offs in the quarter to be announced later this month to several potential investors in both the parent and Neuberger walking away.

There is also analysis being passed around that the market cap of Lehman is less than the value of Neuberger, leaving the balance of the company’s businesses at zero.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 10:11 am in Financial Stocks, , , , ,

Upping Natural Gas Output Just In Time For Lower Prices (NFX, APA, APC, CHK, DVN)

Exploration and production companies have been loading up on natural gas assets in the US for the past several years, and now it looks like that might not have been the best thing they could have done. Five years ago, natural gas prices were around their historical level relative to crude oil, about $1.00 for every $6.00 of the oil price. The ratio reflected the fact that a barrel of oil contains roughly six times more energy than a thousand cubic feet of natural gas. The most recent EIA natural gas report noted gas prices of $7.26/million BTUs, compared with crude oil prices of $18.90/million BTUs. So, what happened? And is it going to continue?

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 10:09 am in Oil & Gas, , , , , , , , , , ,

Cardica Adding U.S. to E.U. & Japan Sales (CRDC)

Cardica_logoA usually quiet Cardica, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDC) is seeing a huge move in its stock today on strong upside volume.  The company has won FDA marketing approval to sell its PAS-Port Proximal Anastomosis System for use in cardiac bypass surgery. Normally stocks do not run up this much on the actual FDA approvals, but this one had been sold off and was already well off of recent highs.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 9:35 am in FDA, Medical,

Signature Bank Defies Trends of Peers (SBNY)

Signature_bank_logo_2Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) shares are doing something unusual, rallying on a secondary offering.  On September 2, Signature announced that it was selling 3.5 million shares and would give underwriters a 525,000 over-allotment option.  That morning it was at $29.00.  Now, the compan announced early this morning that it priced those shares at $29.00 after closing at $30.07 yesterday.  The demand was very high as it ended up selling a total of 4.7 million shares and gave the underwriters a 700,000 share over-allotment option.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 9:11 am in Banking, Financial Stocks, Secondary Offering,

24/7 Wall St. Most Overpaid CEO Of The Day: TW Telecom (TWTC) CEO Larissa Herda

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250TW Telecom (TWTC) lowered its guidance yesterday. Its shares were promptly downgraded by Citigroup and Merriman Curhan Ford.

All of that caused TWTC shares to drop 14% to a 52-week low of $11.57, down from a period high of $24.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 8:51 am in Management Change,

Day Trader Alert: UAL Corporation (UAUA)

UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA) is seeing a major volume surge right before the open.  We are seeing already some 300,000 shares trade hands with a gain of 7% to $11.76.  This is a twofold issue today.  The trading SNAFU caused by the erroneous news report of a bankruptcy filing is adding fuel this morning, but NASDAQ has reportedly let most of those trades stand despite the wild price tank we saw yesterday before it halted trading.  The drop in oil by another $2.00 to under $105.00 this morning as Hurricane Ike is apparently headed south of most of the Gulf of Mexico energy complex is the main culprit.

Traders are also taking other airline carrier stocks higher, but UAL is up the most and has traded the most shares of the active airline stocks.

Jon C. Ogg
September 9, 2008

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 8:29 am in Airlines,

TW Telecom Feels The Disconnect (TWTC)

TW Telecom Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTC), the former Time Warner Telecom, is having a rough morning.  Last night the company submitted an SEC filing showing that it was going to warn of slower revenue trends at an investor conference.  The company said that it is still experiencing revenue pressure from disconnects from homeowners behind in their mortgages and from very small customers.  The weakness in the Midwest is seeing a potential extension of the slowing economy in the Southeast and in individual markets in other regions.  To add fuel to the fire, it is warning that it may experience a small business customer churn increase as it disconnects non-paying customers.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 8:16 am in Earnings Warning, Telecom, , , , ,

Traders Chasing e-Future (EFUT)

e-Future Information Technology (NASDAQ: EFUT) is indicated up about 15% after the Chinese supply chain management software and services company posted earnings last night.  It posted revenues of $3.5 million and gross profit was $2 million, with non-GAAP income at $1.1 million.  While this is small, it is more than a 100% gain in revenues.  It also listed its deferred revenue as of June 30 as being $8.9 million and said it sees 2008 total revenues of $19 to $20 million with adjusted EBITDA of $5 to $6 million on a non-GAAP basis.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 8:03 am in China, Cult Stock, Earnings, , , ,

Is China Really An Economic Threat?

China_2By John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

China’s successful oversight of the 29th Olympiad has predictably raised questions and commentary about issues extending beyond the host’s growing prominence on the fields of play. Some are asking whether China’s athletic dominance will translate more and more to economics, and if so, the question is one of whether or not this is a threat.

By definition it cannot be.

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 7:37 am in China

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (CEDC, DL, GLW, ECLP, HPQ, KMB, RTP)

This morning is looking actually a bit dull in analyst coverage, but there are some key analyst calls that are affecting shares.  These are the upgrades or positive analyst calls we are seeing this morning:

  • Central European Distribution (CEDC) started as buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • China Distance Education (DL) started as outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Corning (GLW) raised to overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Eclipsys (ECLP) started as buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) raised to outperform at Bernstein.
  • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) raised to buy at Citigroup.
  • Rio Tinto (RTP) raised to buy at Canaccord.

Jon C. Ogg
September 9, 2008

Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 7:35 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , ,

McDonald’s (MCD) Grows Too Much

Ronaldmcdonald_2If McDonald’s (MCD) keeps growing as fast as it is there won’t be any room left in the market for Starbucks (SBUX), Burger King, Dunkin’ Donuts, and all the little deli operators will be out of business.

Last month, MCD sales were up 8.5%. In the US the figure rose 4.5%. Sales in Europe blew off the doors, rising 11.6%. The food in that region was never very good anyway.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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Posted on: September 9, 2008 – 7:08 am in Food, , , , ,