Daily Archives: September 18, 2008

NVIDIA Sends Workers Home… Permanently (NVDA)

Nvidia_logo_2NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has not been without its share of problems.  It has just announced that it will implement a headcount reduction of approximately 360 positions worldwide.  This translates to about 6.5% of its internal global workforce. 

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Oracle Shows Mixed Earnings (ORCL)

Oracle_logo_2Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) came out with some mixed earnings after today’s close, and without guidance this is somewhat of a pending and unresolved issue.  The enterprise and CRM behemoth posted earnings of $0.29 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $5.33 Billion.  Estimates were $0.27 non-GAAP EPS on $5.42 Billion in revenues according to First Call.  So far we are seeing shares trade up to $19.10 after closing up 3.5% at $18.75.

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The 52-Week Low Club 9/18/2008 (GNW)(STT)(MS)(GS)

Sad_clownGenworth (GNW) Concerns that mortgage insurance company has too much exposure in housing disaster. Down to $3.51 from 52-week high of $32.33.

State Street (STT) Concerns about exposure to AIG (AIG) and other portfolio losses. Drops to $29.09 and recovers some. The 52-week low was $86.55.

Morgan Stanley (MS) Worries about ability to survive on its own. Falls  to $11.70 from 52-week high of $69.87.

Goldman Sachs (GS) Pulled down with other financial stocks. Sells off to $85.88 from 52-week high of $250.70.

Douglas A. McIntyre

If NYSE Reinstated Trading Curbs… (NYX)

Once upon a time, on a trading floor not so long ago… The NYSE Euronext, Inc.(NYSE:NYX) used to implement Trading Curbs that were different than the current Circuit Breakers.  This was just when it was the goold old NYSE.  These trading curbs implemented the uptick rule and downtick rule.  They affected program trading and were, as they sound, curbs. These weren’t market fixes in times or turmoil but did theoretically keep the swings in check.  In the days of "bringing on the free-for-all" these were done away with as being ineffective and unnecessary.  There are circuit breakers which can kick into effect, but it now takes a 1,200 point move in the DJIA to kick in. It also results in trading halts rather than just curbs.

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Can Oracle & Larry Ellison Escape The Hangman? (ORCL)

Oracle_logoAfter today’s close we’ll get earnings out of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL).  The enterprise and CRM behemoth is expected to post $0.27 non-GAAP EPS on $5.42 Billion in revenues according to First Call.  For Next quarter, estimates are $0.35 EPS on $6.23 Billion in revenues.  If Larry Ellison is willing to go out on a limb for Fiscal May-2009, those estimates are $1.50 non-GAAP EPS and $25.96 Billion in revenues.  There are many other issues just besides the numbers.

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Is VIX At 40 Enough?

The highly watched CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX or the Fear Index, blew through 30 over recent days faster than one could imagine.  Historically 30 is the recent historic level where even the bears have decided to lighten up.  Sometimes it is for a bear market bounce and sometimes for more.  Yesterday it had reached a high of 36.40.  This morning the VIX crossed above 40 and briefly went north of 42.00.  Even after the current rally we have seen we are still slightly above 40.00 on the VIX.  A market being oversold is no refuge for long-term and near-term issues, but that doesn’t keep traders from trying to make a living.
40_vix_2

Jon C. Ogg
September 18, 2008

Custodial Banks Join The Carnage (STT, BK)

Bank_ny_logoState_street_logo_2We are suddenly seeing a meaningful drop in the major custodial banking stocks.  State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) and The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) are the leaders in this group.  Until recently, these institutions were spared from the carnage on Wall Street.  There are some obvious reasons these companies have been hit today, although the severity of the price drop is noteworthy.

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The Fleeting Nature Of Investment Banks

Lehman_brothersBy John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

When he was still running Goldman Sachs, current Treasury secretary Henry Paulson would regularly talk to the classes of incoming associates about what kept him up at night. His answer was the same every time, and it had to do with Goldman’s rising employee head count. With it impossible to monitor the activity of every employee, surely there were a few bad apples doing things that could break the bank’s sterling reputation.

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Cypress Drawing Power from the Sun (SPWR, CY)

Sunpower_logoCypress_logoA long-awaited move is finally happening.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) has registered more than 42 million shares of Class B common stock owned by Cypress Semiconductor (NYSE:CY) to be distributed in a spin-off to stockholders. Cypress expects to distribute about 0.27 shares of the Class B stock for every share of common stock outstanding. Cypress structured the spin-off as a dividend and a tax-free transaction for shareholders.

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DJIA Picks Kraft As Unusual AIG Replacement (KFT, AIG, PEP, KO)

Kraft_logoEarlier this week in the midst of the American International Group (NYSE: AIG) meltdown we brought up the issue that AIG was about to lose its standing as a member of the prized Dow Jones Industrial Average.  This morning the indexes group named Kraft Foods  Inc. (NYSE: KFT) as the replacement for AIG.  This will take place on September 22.  Out of all of the companies we picked, this is perhaps one of the more unusual ones.

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Constellation Finds Disappointing Buyout (CEG, BRK-A)

Constellation_logoGood news and bad news…. Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) has found a buyer.  The bad news is that it is a tentative deal that is for a mere $26.50 per share.  MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, part of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) empire, has reached a tentative agreement to acquire the company for $4.7 billion.  This translates to $26.50 per share. 

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Status on Companies Raising Cash (ORA, TCBI, VRTX, OTTR)

We have seen three issues so far since yesterday’s close to sell shares of stock and one offering still pending on the calendar for the week.  We have seen filings out of Ormat Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ORA), Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: TCBI), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX).  We are also still waiting for pricing from Otter Tail Corp. (NASDAQ: OTTR) on its secondary offering.

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Capstone Turbine Changes Tune In Securities Sales (CPST)

Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) has pulled somewhat of an about-face.  The company has registered 21,485,660 shares of common stock and warrants to purchase an additional 6,445,698 shares of common stock in a secondary offering.  It plans to issue units at $14.90 per unit consisting of ten shares of common stock and warrants to purchase three shares of common stock. The warrants will be exercisable for a period of five years at an exercise price of $1.92 per share.  This is rather contrary to what the company said before as it stated it would seek lines of credit and/or bank loans as its last choice was to resort to a securities sale.

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Early Bird Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ADTN, EYE, HOC, INCY, PTR, CEG, KSS, VNO, WFMI)

These are some of the early bird analyst calls we are seeing in stocks this Thursday morning which could impact shares:

  • ADTRAN (ADTN) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Advanced Medical Optics (EYE) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Constellation Energy (CEG) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Holly Corp. (HOC) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Incyte Corp. (INCY) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • PetroChina (PTR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • Whole Foods (WFMI) Started as Underperform at FBR.

Jon C. Ogg
September 18, 2008

Google (GOOG) Defies The Authorities

GoogGoogle (GOOG) told regulators who do not like its program to sell search advertising for Yahoo! (YHOO) to go to hell. Antitrust authorities in the US and EU have expressed concerns that having the two largest search companies in America working together will raise ad prices. There are a number of economic precedents to show that their concerns are valid.

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Suspending Short Selling Entirely?

AngrybearThere are two compelling arguments against suspending short selling completely, even if it is for only a brief period. The first is that a free market allows investors to make money by betting that stocks will go down. Why should the bulls be allowed to make all of the profits unchecked by those willing to take the other side of the gamble?

The second argument is that a hiatus on short selling could cost shorts billions of dollars as investors see stocks rise after putting good money into the proposition that they will fall.

The government has not had a problem with ending or temporarily amending a number of rules in the hope that it can save the financial system.

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A Lesson From Russia: Close The Markets

RussiaMost Americans think that closing the markets for a day or two is the action of socialists and not an appropriate way to deal with the current credit debacle.

Nevertheless, the Russians like the idea and will shutter their markets until Friday. The government there has also put $70 billion into the financial system to improve liquidity. Tomorrow morning, the world will get to see whether the action helped.

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Central Bank Action Reverses Market Slides

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250For the time being, the move by central banks to add $180 billion to the financial systems to improve liquidity at large banks and brokerages seems to be working.

The Hang Seng, which was down over 7% closed flat. Markets in Europe are rising and shares in RBS (RBS) are up almost 10%. Shares in troubled HBOS are up 47%.

Futures for US markets are rising 1% to 2% ahead of the open.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Attacking The Wrong Problem: Huge Help For Banks, Nothing For Mortgages

The Fed and a number of other largeFed central banks will put $180 billion into the markets to improve liquidity. Policy makers “continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures,” a joint release from the agencies said.

Putting more dollars into the system may help some firms, at least short term. The Hang Seng index, which was down over 7% early in its session ended flat.

The critical question is whether the government actions attack the root cause of the trouble or merely help the largest financial institutions to stay in business.

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Media Digest 9/18/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, Morgan Stanley (MS) is in merger talks with several firms.

Reuters says HSBC (HBC) may be a possible buyer for Morgan Stanley.

Reuters reports that Washington Mutual (WM) is being auctioned off.

Reuters reports that the Fed is not likely to change rates this year.

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