Daily Archives: October 8, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (YHOO)(MSFT)(SIRI)(XL)(CHTR)(LVLT)(ORCL)(CSCO)(F)(DELL)

R218533_855025_2Yahoo! (YHOO) Concerns about slowdown in internet advertising. Drops to $13.20 from 52-week high of $34.08. Bet they wish they had taken Microsoft (MSFT) deal.

Sirius (SIRI) Merger a failure.Sells off to $.45 from 52-week high of $3.94.

Xl Cap (XL) Met Life warns, kills shares in industry. Down to $6.22 from 52-week high of $81.63.

Charter (CHTR) Troubled cable company, heavy with debt, gets more troubled. Falls to $.52 from 52-week high of $2.98.

Level 3 (LVLT) Big internet network company has too much debt. Dips to $1.66 from 52-week high of $5.01.

Oracle (ORCL) Concerns about enterprise software sales softening. Down to $16.01 from 52-week high of $23.62.

Cisco (CSCO) Another tech icon hurt by IT spending concerns. Sells down to $17.80 from 52-week high of $32.24.

Ford (F) More concerns about cash position and car sales. Runs down to $2.10 from 52-week high of $9.24.

Dell (DELL) Looks like the holidays may be weak for PC company. Off to $13.23 from 52-week high of $30.77.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 2:46 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , ,

Sirius (SIRI): Down To $.45, Off Nearly 90%

Siri_2The dirge is just about over for Sirius XM (SIRI). The stock has marched down so far that the market is saying there is little prospect for recovery. The company is plagued by a combination of two things it cannot escape: tremendous debt and a business which has lost most of its growth prospects.

Shares in Sirius hit $.45, down from a 52-week high of $3.94.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 2:09 pm in Satellite, ,

Ken Heebner Calls Global Recession (MOS)

Ken Heebner just came on CNBC today, and while it did sound a bit like he was licking his wounds, he made some key comments that influence investors.  First and foremost, he said "WE HAVE A GLOBAL RECESSION COMING."  Interestingly, enough and despite making that statements, he expects the downturn to be short-lived.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 1:23 pm in Economy, Interview, Mutual Funds,

Tracking Dividends: Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (KMP)

Oil_gas_pipeline_picKinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) expects to increase its third quarter cash distribution to its limited partners to $1.02/common unit. That’s 16% more than the cash distribution of $0.88/unit for the third quarter of 2007.  Many MLP’s are in unique positions in today’s economy and some of these dividend payments appear safer than elsewhere in the market.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 12:24 pm in Dividend, Oil & Gas,

Earnings Heading Up For Refiners? (MRO, CVX, VLO)

Oil_refinery_imageMarathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) today gave an interim update on its third quarter performance. The company will announce earnings on October 30th.  Production is expected to be up by about 34,000 barrels of oil equivalent/day (boepd) from the second quarter, and production available for sale is expected to be 388,000 boepd. That is higher than previous guidance.  This also leads one down the path of wondering if things at Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) might be close to coming around too.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 10:21 am in Oil & Gas, , ,

Ten Things To Do To Save Yourself In a Market Meltdown (AAPL)(GOOG)(SIRI)(MCD)(INTC)

AngrybearJim Cramer wants people to sell all of their stocks. Even though the market may keep falling, that might not be a practical solution for everyone. There are several things investors can do to at least partially save themselves from a falling market and get in position if stocks move up again.

1. Sell your dogs. No matter how much an investor loves a stock, firms in the second or third tier of their industries are going to get hurt more. They will get hit by both a falling market and a recession. Some good examples are AMD (AMD), which runs a distant second to Intel (INTC). Yahoo! (YHOO), which is well behind Google (GOOG) in search is another company which will find the going especially tough. Palm (PALM) runs behind Apple (AAPL) and RIM (RIMM) in the smart phone industry. In an awful market, being in second place means being in last place.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 10:14 am in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Quest For Instant Price Discovery: Opening The DJIA At 5,000

Down_arrow_redWe have just seen two horrific trading days in a row for stocks as the market put in multi-year lows.  This is on top of four quarters of selling.  We all know what the reasoning and rationale are.  The method of "instant pricing discovery" is not how markets work, but it is evidence that equilibrium and efficient market theories are as far from reality as it gets.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 9:29 am in Economy, Index

Snoopy Loses His Nose (MET)

Metlife_logoMetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET) is joining the other major financial stocks of late with its shares getting clocked this morning to new multi-year lows.  Last night, the insurer said earnings would be $0.83 to $0.93 per share, much worse than expectations.  Estimates from First Call are $1.44.  On top of this, it posted wider losses on assets and it is raising cash.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 8:22 am in Earnings, Financial Stocks, Secondary Offering,

B of A: When Your Stock Breaks Under Offering Price (BAC, JPM, MER)

Bank_of_america_logoBank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is being taken to the cleaners this morning.  Shares closed down sharply yesterday at $23.77 after closing at $32.22 just the day before.  Bank of America raised right at $10 billion via a security sale of common stock to the tune of 455 million shares at $22.00 per share.  Yet shares are trading well under the pricing level.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 8:10 am in Banking, Mergers and Buy Outs, Secondary Offering, , ,

Symantec, Help From Within & From Outside (SYMC)

Symantec_logo_2Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) is catching a bid this morning, although it is still at the lower-end of its 52-week trading range following an upgrade and an acquisition.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 7:51 am in Analyst Calls, Mergers and Buy Outs, Software,

Despite Economy, Costco Manages Impressive Sales Gains (COST)

Costco_logoCostco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is trading down over 1% pre-market, yet the upper-end big box retailer posted some very strong numbers.   The company reported earnings of $0.97 per share before $0.07 worth of charges. First Call estimates were for profit of $0.93.  Its net sales were $22.6 billion excluding membership fees.  Costco also posted September same store sales at +7% with a total sales gain of 10% for the month.  It is still growing members as its membership fees rose to $473.7 million from $388.2 million in the same quarter in 2007.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 7:34 am in Consumer Goods, Earnings, Retail,

Can Rentek Catch A Break? (RTK)

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (aka, the Wall Street bailout bill) did more than provide $700 billion of taxpayer funds to jump start the economy. The legislation also included the Energy Improvement and Extension Act aimed at encouraging continued development of alternative energy sources. Rentek Inc. (AMEX:RTK) was recently touting what it gained from the new legislation.  But shares have been gutted in recent selling and closed yesterday well under the $1.00 critical mass level at $0.6899 as speculative stocks and alternative energy stocks have been killed.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 7:22 am in Commodities, Oil & Gas,

Wal-Mart (WMT) September Sales A Bit Light, Who Cares?

WmtWall St. expected Wal-Mart (WMT) same-store sales to be up 2.5% in September. They only rose 2.4%. It was a brilliant showing. Almost all data from retail associations said sales across the industry were a wreak last month.

Wal-Mart’s revenues were up almost 5% to $22.5 million. Most large store chains would lay down their lives for that.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 6:47 am in Retail, ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (AMAG, ANDE, BAC, BMC, CDNS, CTXS, IPAR, JEF, MDR, MYGN, NUVA, SYMC)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades we are seeing this Wednesday morning:

  • AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan
  • Andersons (ANDE) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Market Perform at KBW
  • BMC Software (BMC) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
  • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
  • Citrix Systems (CTXS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
  • Inter Parfums (IPAR) Raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray
  • Jefferies (JEF) Raised to Market Perform at KBW
  • McDermott International (MDR) Started as Buy at American Tech Research
  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • NuVasive (NUVA) Started as Overweight as JPMorgan
  • Symantec (SYMC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan

Jon C. Ogg
October 8, 2008

Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 6:43 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (AUTH, DD, HST, RNWK, RLH)

These are some of the top individual analyst downgrades we are seeing very early this Wednesday morning:

  • AuthenTec (AUTH) Cut To Neutral at JPMorgan
  • DuPont (DD) Cut to Hold at BB&T Capital
  • Host Hotels (HST) Cut To Market Perform at KBW
  • RealNetworks (RNWK) Cut to Sell at Piper Jaffray
  • Red Lions Hotels (RLH) Cut to Neutral at Baird

Jon C. Ogg
October 8, 2008

Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 6:34 am in Analyst Calls, , , , ,

Citigroup Cuts Ford (F) And GM (GM) To “Sell”

Ford1After months of suffering indignities and falling sales, Citigroup cut shares in Ford (F) and GM (GM) to sell. It dropped it price target for Ford to $2.50 and GM’s to $6.

According to MarketWatch, "After maintaining a cautious stance on automaker stocks throughout the past several months, the risk-reward balance has tilted decidedly negative with the continued tightening of global credit conditions," the broker said

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 6:14 am in Autos, ,

Google (GOOG) Tries To Make Money On YouTube, Again (AAPL)(AMZN)

GoogGoogle (GOOG) may never make money on its $1.65 billion purchase of YouTube. Selling advertising next to all of that low-resolution video of people beating their dogs and dancing drunk on their dining room tables is tough.

But, Google’s stock is down to $350, a drop from a 52-week high of $747, so investors are beginning to worry about the search company’s earnings prospects,

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 5:40 am in Internet, , ,

Pfizer’s (PFE) Little White Lie

R218533_855025US drug companies have a habit of misleading consumers and even physicians. It is a game they have played for decades. Usually they do not get caught. When they do a great cry goes up for reforming drug trials at the FDA and closer monitoring of pharma marketing practices.

Pfizer (PFE) is the latest alleged cheater. It could not leave well enough on sales of one of its most popular drugs so it may have decided to bend the rules.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 5:30 am in Uncategorized,

What A CDS Exchange Means To Debt Issuers & To You

Money_stack_pic_2There has been talk of creating a central exchange and clearing mechanism for the widely unknown and illiquid Credit Default Swaps, and now that talk has materialized into an actual effort.  The requirements for trading and the sizes of contracts still needs to be worked out.  But the CME Group (NYSE: CME) and Citadel Investment Group have now entered into an arrangement to launch a joint venture for an electronic trading platform integrated with a central counterparty clearing facility for these instruments.  What is more important than the news are the ramifications of this new exchange.  We have taken a very simplified and general approach to this in order to explain how this can ultimately impact corporate America and ultimately the average investor.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 5:14 am in Bonds, Economy, Exchange News, Financial Stocks

Will China Save The US Financial System

China

When it comes to the potential failure of the US economy and banking system, China has an especially large dog in the fight. The central government and a number of large banks own hundreds of billions of dollars in US Treasury notes and paper from companies including Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). An American disaster could turn into one for China as well.

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Posted on: October 8, 2008 – 5:11 am in China, ,