Daily Archives: October 9, 2008

Carlos Slim Adds to Saks Stake (SKS)

Saks_logoSaks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) may have gotten a better endorsement than if Warren Buffett or Bill Gates bought into the retailer.  Mexican billionaire and the second richest man in the world Carlos Sliim has added some $4.9 million worth of Saks stock.  The shares. purchased via a trust called Inmobiliaria controlled by his family, came to 690,000 shares with prices from $6.99  to $7.20.  This now takes the total control from the Slim family trust up to 17 million shares.

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DJIA: 19 Days To Zero?

Down_arrow_red_3Today’s drop of 678.91 points to the close of 8,579.19 on the DJIA is actually a drop of 1,746.19 points since Friday’s close.  That represents nearly a 17% drop over four days and it begets the argument of "HOW MANY MORE DAYS TO ZERO AT THIS SAME RATE?". 

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Apocalypse Now: Do The Markets Have A Chance To Recover

95129cThere were several pieces of bad news today, but three stand out. This news may have been the primary cause of the market sell-off which took the Dow down 679 points, or 7.3%, to 8,579. The market was above 14,000 less than a year ago.

Every investor and most working men and women have the same questions. What will it take to get the economy back in order? Is the die cast for an awful and prolonged period of financial despair.

The most alarming information came from The Wall Street Journal, In its latest forecast survey from 52 economists, the paper found that the experts expect the GDP to contract in the third and fourth quarters of this year and the first quarter of next.

The paper reports that "If those predictions bear out, it would mark the first time U.S. GDP—the total value of goods and services produced—has contracted for three consecutive quarters in more than a half century."

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Can GE Earnings Rescue the Market? (GE)

Ge_logoWe are set for earnings out of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) early Friday morning.  If you have been watching the tape and if you have been paying attention to the economic data, it is impossible to expect and solid earnings from the world’s largest conglomerate.  There are also more things to consider here than just the earnings as GE reflects much of the global economy.

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The 52-Week Low Club (NWS)(CBS)(YHOO)(GE)(JAVA)(SBUX)(PFE)(GM)

Sad_clownGM (GM) Concerns that global car sales will fall again in 2009 and company will get short on money. Down to $5.22 from 52-week high of $43.20.

News Corp (NWS) Weak ad market hits shares. Drops to $9.43 from 52-week high of $24.95.

CBS (CBS) More concern about advertising. Drops to $10.38 from 52-week high of $30.85.

Yahoo! (YHOO) Bad press about future in WSJ. Falls to $12.84 from 52-week high of $34.08.

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Will Alcoa Lose Its Investment Grade Rating? (AA)

Alcoa_logoStandard & Poor’s Ratings Services has already put GM’s credit ratings on watch today, and the ratings agency is also putting the credit rating of Alcoa, Inc. on "Negative Outlook" from a "Stable" rating.  It has technically affirmed the BBB+ long-term rating and A-2 short-term credit rating.  S&P is citing the weaker than expected earnings, falling aluminum prices, and its weak end markets.  Those factors combined with large capital spending and its halted stock repurchase plan are noted as being weak for the current BBB+ rating.  The revision also reflects uncertainties over the length and depth of the economic downturn, the disruptions in the financial markets, and longer-term effects on commodity prices.

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IPO Withdrawal: Value Financial Services, A Pawn Shop

A firm called Value Financial Services, inc. has just pulled its pending initial public offering today.  The reasons should be evident enough as to why, but it said it is requesting withdrawal for various business and market reasons.  This one has apparently been a pending IPO forever as it originally filed for an IPO in August 2007.  As we noted at the time of the filing, this company is a pawn shop operator.

Jon C. Ogg
October 9, 2008

The Brunswick Boat Sinks (BC)

Bruswick_boat_logo_2Brunswick Corporation (NYSE: BC) is being hit hard after the company announced that it will accelerate its previously announced efforts to re-size the company and to remove $300 million in fixed costs by the end of 2009.   It said this accelerated step-up is in light of "extraordinary developments within the global financial markets" that are affecting the recreational marine industry.

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Libery Media’s Malone Unloads Shares… To Liberty Media (LCAPA, LINTA, LMDIA)

Liberty_media_logoChairman John Malone of Liberty Media Corp. (NASDAQ: LCAPA) sold 4.5 million shares of common stock on October 7, 2008 at a price of $11.00 per share.  He still holds more than 2.7 million shares of Series A Common Stock.  The other units of Liberty trade under the "LINTA" and "LMDIA" tickers as well.

This was part of Liberty’s repurchase plan, but it was a privately negotiated transaction as this trade nor enough shares crossed on the exchange on that day.  According to trade recaps, this stock only traded 1.04 million shares of common stock on October 7 and the stock closed at $11.22 with an intra-day trading range of $11.16 to $12.49.

Jon C. Ogg
October 9, 2008

New “Wall Street Journal” Survey: Worst Recession In Over 50 Years

R218533_855025The people at The Wall Street Journal have been working overtime to depress their readers. In the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, "On average, the 52 economists surveyed now expect gross domestic product to contract in the third and fourth quarters of this year, as well as the first quarter of 2009."

"It would mark the first time U.S. GDP—the total value of goods and services produced—has contracted for three consecutive quarters in more than a half century."

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JD Power: 2009 Car Market Could Be “An Outright Collapse”

Ford1The news from the automobile industry did not improve today. Research firm JD Power warned that 2009 could be a more troubled year for sales that 2009 was.

“While the global automotive industry is clearly experiencing a slowdown in 2008, the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. While mature markets are being impacted more severely than emerging markets, no country or region is completely immune to the turmoil," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting at Power.

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Using 2001 to 2003 DJIA Lows For Support

As the DJIA is now closer to breaking down under the mental 9,000 barrier, we wanted to run some old support levels to illustrate where the market used support in the past.  We compiled data for intra-day lows to show what the absolute support was and where the DJIA closed at each month.  Hopefully the markets won’t trade down through that key mental barrier, but he have been receiving requests for some guidance as to what levels held up when the DJIA broke down under those levels.

In the most simple form of technical analysis, these pivot points can become the new theoretical resistance levels.  You will see these levels in the chart and table below.

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What Chevron is Likely to Say Might Not Matter (CVX, XOM, COP)

Chevron_logoAfter the market closes today Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is releasing its interim update for the third quarter of 2008. Typically these updates paint a pretty accurate picture of what investors can expect from the coming earnings release.  The company has made some changes during the quarter that will haveboth one-time and long-term effects on earnings.

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Artesian Resources, Winning Water Assets On Bad Week (ARTNA)

Water_imageCecil County, Maryland, has approved the transfer of its water distribution and wastewater assets to Artesian Resources (NASDAQ:ARTNA) this week. This is just the latest in a string of conversions from publicly-supported water systems to private companies. The conversions typically spring from deteriorating infrastructure, which could cost local governments millions of dollars they don’t have to repair.

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Ethanol Wars: Xethanol Vs. Pacific & VeraSun (XNL, PEIX, VSE)

After the market closed yesterday, Xethanol Corporation (AMEX:XNL) announced that a Federal Court had approved the settlement Xethanol had reached in a class action suit alleging that the company had misled investors. The settlement was reached in November 2007, and will cost the company $400,000. Xethanol’s insurer will pay $2.4 million plus up to $300,000 in legal costs.

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Are Short Sellers Hitting GM (GM)?

Gm20jpeg20imageAre short sellers hitting GM? The stock has been off as much as 20% today and has traded as down to $5.41. The shares have not been that low since 1951.

The auto company did say that its sales in Europe were weak, but that would probably not account for such a huge and accelerating drop.

According to the AP, "Overall, sales of GM brands across the Continent fell by 1.9 percent to just over 1.6 million vehicles, the company’s European subsidiary said. This compares with an industrywide drop in European sales of 0.2 percent."

GM had a tremendous short position the last time the NYSE released numbers the company which was for the September 15 period. The firm had 139 million shares sold short.

Douglas A. McIntyre

This Month’s Retail Wall of Shame (ANF, CHS, GPS, PIR, SSI)

Down_arrow_red_2It is no secret that the consumer is in the tank and that retail sales are coming in poorly.  It would have been a fool’s gold trade to believe you were going to see any great sales for September’s same-store-sales figures.  When you compare it to the results of 2007, all you have to do is mark last September as the month where the consumer was officially starting to consider that things were going to slow down in the months ahead.  But there are several retailers that just aren’t making the grade.  These are some of the active stocks we are reviewing today:  Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Pier 1 Imports inc. (NYSE: PIR), and Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI).

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The FDIC, and How Soon We Forget

By John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

Chairman Henry Gonzalez (D-Texas) and his committee are taking us back to 1980, when former Chairman Fernand St. Germain boosted deposit insurance to $100,000 an account (from $40,000) in the dead of night. To prevent another S&L disaster, we need to limit the deposit-insurance subsidy. A banking ‘reform’ without such limits is just another Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue."

The above passage comes from a Wall Street Journal editorial dated June 7, 1991. Amid an S&L meltdown that some deemed "the worst public scandal in American history", the Journal’s editorial page was properly relentless in its pursuit of the main causes of the S&L crisis that like banking problems today, would fall at the feet of the American taxpayer

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The Huntsman Merger Lives (HUN)

Huntsman_logoHuntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN) is seeing explosive trading in its stock this morning before the open.  It appears that the private equity merger which was called off, then ruled as an improper break-up, may have some extra life to it after all.  Hexion Specialty Chemicals has announced that it is proceeding to seek to close its merger with Huntsman.

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ArcelorMittal Denying Trouble Seen In Its Stock Chart (MT)

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) is trading higher in overseas trading this morning based upon its investor presentation today.  The steel giant is reaffirming that its third quarter EBITDA will be in excess of $8.5 billion and says it expects EBITDA as well as cash flow from Operations to be higher in the second half of 2008 compared to the record first half of 2008.

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