Daily Archives: January 22, 2009

Regional Banks Already Registering TARP Shares & Warrants (HMNF, MFSF, STL, CJBK, GRNB, PVSA, FISI, TSBK, IBOC)

Money_stack_pic_4We have perused many SEC filings over the years, but it seems that the flood gates are starting to open where regional banks and smaller banks are filing with the SEC to raise capital.  Each one of these look like the securities being registered are cumulative preferred shares and warrants to buy stock under the Fed’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.  But seeing the magnitude of filers and the nominal amounts mentioned is starting to show just how widespread this need for capital is.  Below is a list of the filings we saw from today alone:

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AMD’s Bataan Death March (AMD)

Burning_money_pic_6Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) just posted earnings, or at least its results.  It is as far from earnings as ever, and it is also seeing steep declines like other technology companies.  The #2 processor company posted -$2.32 EPS on an operating basis and a 28% sequential drop to $1.162 billion in revenues.  Thomson Reuters (First Call) had estimates pegged at -$0.54 EPS and $1.23 billion in revenue.   What lies ahead for technology companies that supply the guts and brains for PC’s isn’t a cakewalk either.

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The Future Of Search: Google’s (GOOG) Big Growth Gone

Google is still a growth company but it is no longer one with awe-inspiring year-over-year comparisons. Its revenue may no longer be moving up rapidly enough to support a a price point anywhere near its 52-week high of just over $600. It closed the day at $306.50.

Winter_4Thomson Reuters (First Call) had estimates for Google (GOOG) pegged at $4.95 EPS and $4.12 billion in revenues, EX-TAC, meaning that "traffic acquisition costs" are taken out.

Google reported revenues of $5.70 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, an increase of 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 and an increase of 3% compared to the third quarter of 2008. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In the fourth quarter of 2008, TAC totaled $1.48 billion, or 27% of advertising revenues.

GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $1.21 on 317 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $4.06 for the third quarter of 2008 on 318 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS in the fourth quarter of 2008 was $5.10, compared to $4.92 in the third quarter of 2008.

So, Wall St. could say that the company made its numbers. The market greated the news with a yawn. Shares were up $6 after hours, which is about 2%

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Marvell Tanks Expectations (MRVL)

Burning_money_pic_5Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (Nasdaq: MRVL) just got to pile on in the tech earnings warning carnage.  The communications chip provider slashed its revenue projections in the quarter to $500 million to $520 million.  This is a disaster, even considering the weakness seen elsewhere in PC’s and in communications equipment.

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Can Google Escape Tech & Media Earnings Hangman? (GOOG)

Google_logoThe surprise earnings release from Microsoft this morning was meant to ward off leaks on an already-down day.  But Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was the scheduled duelist against Microsoft for all of the media and headline attention in today’s afternoon round of earnings season.  What will be interesting here is exactly how Wall Street evaluates the company’s commentary when you consider that it has never issued any formal guidance.

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Microsoft Conference Call Live Commentary (MSFT)

Burning_money_pic_4By now, even the pygmies have figured out that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) had an awful quarter.  We already signaled the top-line and bottom-line miss this morning, and a warning that was without any formal quantitative guidance.  So we decided to listen in on the company’s conference call.  So far, the call leaves very little to be desired.  We have taken many of the conference call comments and paraphrased or quoted where appropriate.  We also included some of the Q&A from Wall Street analysts which you will recognize, and we have also regrouped some of the data where it is more important rather than sequentially.

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Bank Of America (BAC) Fires Ex-Merrill CEO John Thain

Maybe it was the $21 billion of losses Merrill Lynch had in Q4. Or, perhaps it was the bonuses Merrill gave out before the Bank of America (BAC) takeover was final, but John Thain, former Merrill CEO is out.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Thain has "resigned" from his new job as president of global banking, securities and wealth management at Bank of America.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Rumor: Yahoo! (YHOO) Will Cut 3,000 Jobs Or $850 Million

Winter_3

This should be put in the "rumor" file immediately because it is based on one anonymous source inside Yahoo!.

Yahoo!’s (YHOO) new CEO, Carol Bartz, has told her board that she does not need outside help from consultants to restructure the company. Previous CEO Jerry Yang had brought in Bain.

Bartz’s early look at Yahoo! has made her believe that she needs to make cuts of as many as 3,000 people or $850 million. The company employs about 12,000. Since these numbers are not equivalent, one of them must be incorrect. Bartz will make sharp cuts whether a search deal with Microsoft (MSFT) is completed or not.

The same source also said that Yahoo! premium display advertising is running down 25% from the first quarter of 2008.

None of this has been confirmed by a second party.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Energy Transfer Partners Raises Cash, At Minimal Discount (ETP)

Money_stack_pic_3Last night, we covered a filing frin Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE: ETP) to sell some 5 million units to raise cash.  The deal not only priced this morning, but the company sold 6 million units rather than 5 million units.

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Offshore Drilling Plan Not Subject to Obama Review

The US Minerals Management Service said that its new five-year plan for drilling on the US outer continental shelf (OCS) "isn’t affected" by the review order issued on Tuesday by the Obama administration. The plan was published in the Federal Register yesterday, one day after President Obama ordered a halt to new rule making.

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Coal-to-Gasoline Maker Revises Forecast (SSL)

Coal_imageSouth African coal gasification company Sasol Limited (NYSE:SSL) forecast "robust growth" for its 2009 fiscal year which began in July. Yesterday, the company revised that forecast.  It now expects "a moderate reduction" in its 2009 earnings. How times have changed.  The company is also reviewing its capital spending budget. Shares are trading down over 4% at $25.73 this morning, and the 52-week trading range is $19.16 to $67.93.

Paul Ausick
January 22, 2009

McMoran: Exploration Isn’t Paying Off (MMR)

Burning_money_pic_3McMoran Exploration Company (NYSE:MMR) reported full-year 2008 and fourth quarter results yesterday, and it definitely wasn’t pretty. The company’s full-year EPS was -$3.79, and for the fourth quarter the EPS loss totaled -$4.39.

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Ships As Floating Storage for Crude Oil

Ship_image_suez_max_2We have all heard over and over and how many ships were essentially being used as temporary floating storage terminals for oil.  But now there is at least some quantifiable data on just how much black gold is being held on the waterways.  According to an article at Rigzone.com, some 80 million barrels of oil is floating around on the world’s oceans waiting for crude prices to rise. That is about one day’s worth of global demand.

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Surprise, Mergers Still Possible (IWOV)

Money_stack_pic_2It is almost hard to believe, but there is another merger announcement this morning.  Interwoven, Inc. (NASDAQ: IWOV) has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by UK-based Autonomy Corporation plc.  The merger valued Interwoven at $16.20 in cash per share in a deal worth a total of roughly $775 million.

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Microsoft (MSFT) Gets A Second Chance

Old_car_2A  look at the numbers for Microsoft’s last quarter would make most investors shudder. Revenue barely moved, up 2% to $16.6 billion. Net income was of 11% to $4.2 billion.

The world’s largest software company will cut 5,000 jobs.

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Microsoft and Premature Hari Kari, Death of Guidance (MSFT)

Burning_money_pic_2Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) was not supposed to report earnings until after the close of trading.  But something happened for the first time we have ever seen.  The company unexpectedly released earnings at 9:00 AM EST.  The news was bad, and if you work there it may be really bad news.

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Deutsche Bank Upgraded Best Buy (BBY) to Buy

Deutsche Bank upgraded Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) today from Hold to Buy and boosted its price target from $28 to $40, saying the company should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Circuit City’s liquidation announcement.

Deutsche Bank lifted 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates to $2.38 and $2.72 from $2.32 and $2.58, respectively. They also introduces 2011 EPS estimate of $3.02.

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Day Trader Alert: DryShips Drops Anchor (DRYS)

Dryships_logo_2DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) has been one of the day trader’s dreamboat stocks, and no pun is intended.  You can hardly go a day where there is not a $1.00 change in either direction.  Now this morning the company is showing some numbers which might worry even the most bullish.

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Jobless Filings Match Cycle High

Jobless_lines_picThe Labor Department released its weekly jobless claims showing how many Americans have filed for new unemployment benefits.  Consensus estimates according to Bloomberg was 610,000 for the week, although Dow Jones was only expecting a gain of about 26,000.  The data showed 589,000 claims.

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Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (ATVI, AAP, BBY, DTSI, HSY, LOW, M, NEU)

Money_stack_picThese are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades we have seen early this Thursday morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Started as Outperform at FBR.
  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Best Buy (BBY) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Digital Theater Systems (DTSI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Hershey (HSY) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Lowe’s (LOW) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Macy’s (M) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • NewMarket (NEU) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.

Jon C. Ogg
January 22, 2009