Monthly Archives: June 2009

Looking For a Premium IPO in LogMeIn (LOGM, INTC)

LogMeIn LogoCalling for the verdict on an IPO ahead of the actual IPO is a tricky business.  So many things can change.  In fact, too many things can change.  Yet, we are hearing a solid book has built has been built up in what is supposed to be tonight’s IPO pricing for LogMeIn.  The IPO is still set at 6.666667 million shares of common stock, and we still have a price range of $14.00 to $16.00 per share.  While nothing is ever solid on the IPO front, the discussions we have had and the reading we have done around the web has this one looking at a premium pricing and/or a premium opening price.
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NYSE New Circuit Breakers for Q3 2009 (NYX)

Burning Money PicNYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) has listed the revised circuit breaker levels for the New York Stock Exchange.  These will be the new trigger levels for Q3-2009 that create trading halts if these are hit, effective Wednesday, July 1, 2009.  These circuit breakers key off of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and represent the rounding levels for 10%, 20%, and 30% declines.
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UnitedHealth’s Lofty Ambition: $332 Billion in Healthcare Savings (UNH)

Money Stack ImageUnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE: UNH) has listed a very lofty plan for how to reach the healthcare savings for America, which of course will include a private/public system.  It may sound lofty, but the company is putting out a report arguing technology can streamline the administrative processes and can create a potential savings of some $332 billion over the next decade.   This is a topic that spans healthcare to law, and politics.
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GE Taking Decisive Step Into Stem Cells (GE, GERN, STEM, ASTM)

GE LogoGeneral Electric Company (NYSE: GE) is taking a bold and controversial new step into the field of embryonic stem cell research.  The company has signed an exclusive license and alliance pact with Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) to develop and commercialize cellular assay products derived from human embryonic stem cells for use in drug discovery, development and toxicity screening.  As noted over at BioHealthInvestor.com, this may have implications for other stem cell stocks such as StemCells Inc. (NASDAQ: STEM), Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTM) and others.
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Chicago Purchasing Managers, Prelude to a Quiet ISM?

Chicago Purchasing managers is frequently used as a preliminary vote for the national report from the Institute of Supply Management.  This morning we saw the Chicago Purchasing Managers come in at 39.9.  That is higher than the 34.9 reading in May, and it is very close to 40.0 that Bloomberg listed as its consensus estimate.  So far, this is having limited impact on stocks.

As long as this reading remains under 50.0, we are still in the area considered economic contractions.  The national reading for the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10:00 AM EST tomorrow, and Bloomberg lists the consensus expected there as being 45.0.  The May reading came in at 42.8.  This number should not create much at all in any upside surprise expectations for tomorrow’s data.

Jon C. Ogg
June 30, 2009

Emulex Still May Refuse Higher Offer (ELX, BRCM)

Money Stack ImageEmulex Corporation (NYSE: ELX) has already given an initial response to the higher $11.00 offer from Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM).  This is not an outright rebuff, but Emulex said that its board of directors is following fiduciary duties with the assistance of its financial and legal advisors.  So far it has merely said that it will review the terms of the revised tender offer.
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Analyst Looks More Positive on Utilities (AEP, DUK, EXC, PCG, PEG, UTL, XEL, ED, FPL, PNW, PGN, SCG, SO, IDU)

Power Lines ImageOppenheimer is making a new call in the utility sector.  It looks a bit mixed between positive and somewhat cautious calls this morning, but it is important to note that many of these utilities are still in the lower half of the trading range of their last 52-weeks and some are significantly off of highs.

The new OUTPERFORM rated stocks are American Electric Power Co., Inc. (NYSE: AEP), Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK), Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC), PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG), Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (NYSE: PEG), UNITIL Corporation (NYSE: UTL), Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE: XEL).

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Top Analyst Downgrades (ACLI, AMR, GPS, NOK, SO, HOT)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades or cautious calls we have seen early this Tuesday morning:

  • American Commercial Lines (ACLI) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • AMR Corp. (AMR) Cut to Sell at Argus.
  • Gap Inc. (GPS) Started as Neutral at Robert W. Baird.
  • Nokia (NOK) Started as Underperform at BMO Capital Markets.
  • Southern Co. (SO) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Starwood (HOT) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.

JON C. OGG

Obama’s Volunteer Initiatives Are Economically Bankrupt

By John Tamny of RealClearMarkets

 
Responding to the almost monolithically positive coverage of the Obama administration by the national press, Phil Bronstein, editor-at-large for the Hearst Newspapers, observed recently that the Administration and the reporters covering it should “get a room.” And while USA Today’s account of Barack and Michelle Obama’s “United We Serve” initiative appeared after Bronstein’s quip, its coverage of same serves as yet another example of a media apparently unwilling to show even the remotest amount of skepticism about an Administration and program that deserve a great deal of it.
 
As USA Today’s Andrea Stone wrote, “First Lady Michelle Obama will launch a summer of service” that the “White House hopes will help the economy recover through the work of individuals.” This is not a joke, and this is also not a parody of slavish White House reportage from the Onion. Stone was serious.

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Top Analyst Upgrades (AMZN, COH, FDX, IPI, JWN, QCOM, RIMM, URBN)

These are Tuesday’s top analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen early this morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

  • Amazon.com (AMZN) Raised to Outperform at Cowen.
  • Coach (COH) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
  • FedEx (FDX) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
  • Intrepid Potash (IPI) Started as Outperform at RBC.
  • Nordstrom (JWN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
  • Research in Motion (RIMM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg

Comcast (CMCSA) Launches Threat To Wireless Telecom Services

TVCellular providers including Sprint (S), AT&T (T), and Verizon Wireless (VZ)(VOD) have had the broadband wireless market all to themselves. WiFi offered some modest competition, but its service only works within a few hundred feet of a base station. The 3G broadband wireless systems created by the telephone companies cover entire cities and most major roadways.

Comcast (CMCSA), the nation’s largest cable company, means to break the hegemony of the phone companies. Read More »

California’s IOU Fever Is Likely To Spread To Other States

CALCalifornia has begun to issue IOUs to many state vendors as it grows low on cash. The largest state in America as measured by GDP is up against a $24 billion deficit.

According to the FT, “Once the US’s richest state, California now has the dubious distinction of having the worst credit rating in the country.” The state could be joined by Michigan, Florida, and New York as those states face similar problems balancing state budgets. Read More »

Another Achilles Heel For Social Networks, Cybercrime On Facebook

magazinFacebook is becoming one of the most dangerous places on the internet. According to Reuters, “Scammers break into accounts posing as friends of users, sending spam that directs them to websites that steal personal information and spread viruses.”

Since Facebook has, by some measures, more than 200 million members, the problem is extremely serious and could undermine the growth of the social network and cut into the time that current members spend on the site. Read More »

Hyundai Attacks The US Car Market, Again, With $1.49 Gas

oilHyundai has been gaining auto market share in the US. The Korean firm sold almost 37,000 light vehicles in America last month. Its success is moving it to a level where it has begin to become a threat to Chrysler’s and Nissan’s market share.

Hyundai has picked up sales because of inexpensive new cars like the Genesis, but the secret to its success is also the way that it markets its products. Read More »

When Will China Start Drilling For Oil In America?

gasChina may invest $10 billion in Brazil state oil company, Patrobras, on terms that the Latin American company cannot help but find attractive. In advance of the investment, China has secured 100,000 to 160,000 barrels of crude a day, to be sold to the world’s most populous nation at market prices. The parties have not said as much, but the transactions are certainly related. Brazil may end up investing over $170 billion in drilling for off-shore oil reserves. The nation’s deep water Tupi subsalt field may be one of the largest pools of crude in the world. Read More »

Media Digest 8/30/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Cybercrime is spreading fast on Facebook.

Reuters:   GM will seek to sell most of its assets to a new company.

Reuters:    Madoff got 150 years in prison.

Reuters:   AIG (AIG) shareholders will elect new directors.

Reuters:   GM is close to a deal to sell Opel.

Reuters:   A jury returned a $1.7 billion drug verdict against Abbot (ABT). Read More »

Asia Markets And Europe Open 6/30/2009

chinaMarkets in Asia were mixed.

The Nikkei rose 1.8% to 9,956.

The Hang Seng was up .3% to 18,588.

The Shanghai Composite fell .5% to 2,959.

At the open in Europe, The FTSE was up .3% to 4,306 with BHP Billiton (BHP) much higher. The Dax traded up .1% to 4,890. The CAC 40 was higher by .2% to 3,200.

Data from Reuters and MarketWatch

Douglas A. McIntyre

Madoff: Billy The Kid In A Savile Row Suit

madoffPsychologists and psychiatrists around the world gathered for drinks and conversation tonight in their local coffee houses as Bernie Madoff boarded the bus to prison. The world will wait for his death bed confession in 2059. Experts on the human mind know that cars may be replaced by transporters and cities may be powered by nuclear fusion by then, but many more Bernie Madoffs will have come and gone as well. A criminal act that produces a long prison sentence will not prevent fraud. The people who have the genius, daring, narcissism, and psychopathology to build a multi-decade system involving billions of dollars are rare and the notion of punishment may mean little, if anything, to them. Read More »

Apollo Now Over $1 Billion in Quarterly Revenues (APOL)

The online university giant Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) has just posted its first $1 billion revenue quarter which showed 26% year-over-year growth.  The company’s degreed enrollment has now reached 420,700 during the third quarter, and that is a 22% increase from a year ago as new degreed enrollments increased 23%.

The total revenues were up 25.9% to $1.0513 billion, and net income was $201.1 million or $1.26 EPS.  Thomson Reuters had estimates at $1.12 EPS and $1.04 billion in revenue.  The company did not give any formal guidance, so this should be considered incomplete data until after its conference call.
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Mid-America Ready To Acquire More Apartment Projects (MAA)

money-stack-imageMid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE: MAA) has a new investment partnership it plans to use for making acquisitions.  The $250 million fund may be a bit misleading on the size, mainly because its partner seems to be a 10% contribution by Mid-America itself.  Here is the basic criteria and the investment goals of the fund for Mid-America:
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