On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Cramer was out in Virginia on his university road show so this was a back to basics show that was on the normal air time. So this was a re-run where he showed concepts and ideas from his books and previous shows. In other words, no fresh stock picks. Booyah!
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Cisco Systems (CSCO-NASDAQ) shares are surging after guidance in the conference call. Shares are now UP after being down after-hours and not by a small amount, currently back to +4.5% to $28.53.
Here is the problem with ONLY relying on past earnings result statements: companies often give guidance in their conference calls. It is problematic when these companies hide bad guidance until later in the day, but sometimes they issue WOW guidance that the street is usually happy with. Cisco (CSCO) has issued guidance that will be pleasing to even the skeptics. The company is now predicting 19-20% revenue growth year over year and on an ex-S.A. basis the growth was put at 15-17%. Now traders just have to decide if those highs from 3-years ago are going to matter. The highs over the last year are $28.99, and as noted shares are up from a low of $17.10 in the last year.
You can imagine now that Jim Cramer will be out with his positive stance again saying that analysts will be raising numbers and targets, but we’ll let him speak his own words and see if he goes back to that $35 target.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
So here is the post from after earnings:
Cisco Systems (CSCO-NASDAQ): $0.33 non-GAAP EPS & Revenues $8.4 Billion.
Estimates were $0.21 & $8.28+ Billion, although whisper numbers were $0.32 to $0.33 on the higher-end. On a GAAP basis it made $0.31, so even the pickiest technology analyst would have a hard time saying this was not a meet or beat.
There may be a concern that the Scientific Atlanta numbers didn’t come in as robust, but we’ll see.
The stock is down almost 1% at $27.10 on the Scientific Atlanta numbers and no-guidance, but they usually give the actual guidance in the conference call. This reaction so far is more of a trader reaction and a ‘Sell the news’ rather than based on any massive long-term expectation changes.
Travelzoo (TZOO-NASDAQ) is seeing its own version of its Wednesday fare sale for its shares on Tuesday. The street isn’t happy with its results not meeting expectations, and that is taking out more steam. Shares closed up 2.1% ahead of numbers, but shares are down 10% at $30.07 in after-hours trading.
*Revenues of $17.7 million, up 27% year-over-year
*Net income of $4.3 million, up 159% year-over-year
*Cash flow from operations of $5.5 million, up 177% year-over-year
*$0.26 earnings per share, up from $0.10 in the prior year period
*effective income tax rate was 46.3%, down from 56.7% in the prior year period.
Estimates were roughly $0.28 on $18.16 million, so that is why the shares are down. Here is what Ralph Bartel, chairman and chief executive officer said: "Q4 is typically a quarter where we see a smaller increase in revenue and higher marketing costs because of the holiday season. We are very excited about our plans for the launch of a new product in spring 2007 in North America and our growth prospects in Europe."
The problem with TZOO as a stock is that it is historically volatile as it could be, although sicne summer it has traded in a narrow band. The January short interest was listed as 2.455 million shares, which is 11.7 times the average daily volume. Its market cap at the close was $510 million.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Cisco Systems (CSCO-NASDAQ): $0.33 non-GAAP EPS & Revenues $8.4 Billion.
Estimates were $0.21 & $8.28+ Billion, although whisper numbers were $0.32 to $0.33 on the higher-end. On a GAAP basis it made $0.31, so even the pickiest technology analyst would have a hard time saying this was not a meet or beat.
There may be a concern that the Scientific Atlanta numbers didn’t come in as robust, but we’ll see.
The stock is down almost 1% at $27.10 on the Scientific Atlanta numbers and no-guidance, but they usually give the actual guidance in the conference call. This reaction so far is more of a trader reaction and a ‘Sell the news’ rather than based on any massive long-term expectation changes.
Assuming it gives guidance in the conference call: Its next quarter expected by the street is $0.33 and $8.55+ Billion.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Apple’s (AAPL-NASDAQ) Steve Jobs’ call for dropping DRM (digital rights management) online is something that while it sounds great, is likely not realistic. The music industry has fought this on and on and on and on……..My partner Doug has already covered part of this here
Job’s case is almost sort of like saying that they should just go ahead and embrace what is considered copyright theft today because the public would love to be able to send the music to as many people and devices they want to. That isn’t a model that will work for very many music recording labels, particularly as they have been fighting hand in foot over this. part of the difference between this occuring with CD’s versus online is that it is much easier to do this if it is already online.
There was apparently the brief interpretation that this was Jobs opening up the iTunes platform because AAPL jumped an instant 1% on the news before the realization came, and that isn’t happening. If non-DRM music was the case then AAPL would certainly be selling more iPods, but this is the same as FREE ONLY content. I have called for Apple to open up its iTunes format for a universal compatibility because they have the brand and name recognition already won in portable digital music players, but I know what that means potentially down the road if they ever have an iPod product launch that isn’t well received. This is not AAPL opening up its own proprietary systems at all.
Don’t hold your breath for this to happen any time soon. Ultimately, maybe. Immediately or soon, slim to no chance. This would be great for Apple (and any other online music seller) if it would occur, but it is a giant IF and it isn’t what the street thought it was originally. The day the record labels and the musicians want to work free and only have a .org on their name without making monet for their bling bling preference, then you could expect this to occur. Would you bet the over or the under on this really happening?
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Steve Jobs. What a guy.
Let all music downloaded over the internet be free of digital rights management. Those nasty record companies don’t want their content stolen.
Job’s reasoning is perverse. Since CDs don’t have digital rights management software and they are 90% of the industry’s revenue, then why should the last 10%, the downloaded content, need protection?
Well, CDs do have protection. Copyright. Just because consumers can steal something does not mean that they are not breaking an agreement. But, in Job’s calculus, everything can be stolen, and, it probably will be. That may sell more Apple (AAPL) iPods, but it is not good business for the record companies.
Jobs also knows that the best digital right management software in the world is built into the Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Media Player. That helps Microsoft, but over time its hurts Jobs.
But, Jobs love Microsoft.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
National CineMedia’s IPO terms are set and it is closer to coming to market. We already had the filing for an original IPO, and now we have the terms. The company will be selling 38 million shares in a range of $18.00 to $20.00 under the "NCMI" ticker on NASDAQ. Underwriters have a 4 million share overallotment option. The company will have 93.8+ million shares and units on a fully diluted basis.
Here is the full amended filing, and you need to read the caveats on the company structure since this is not exactly a straightforward IPO like others where it would be (example only) say 30 million shares of an operating company that gives a $300 million offering and a $1 Billion market cap. This is the holding company that holds 40.5% of the common membership units in National CineMedia, LLC, NCM LLC. Its founding members AMC Entertainment Inc., Cinemark, Inc. and Regal Entertainment Group will own the remaining 59.5% of the common membership units in NCM LLC. So if you wanted to draw an analogy it would be similar to comparing this to LLC membership units in an oil interest that owns part of a pipeline. You really need to read through the filing so you understand what you are investing in if you like IPO’s.
National Cinemedia is not exactly a movie theatre chain. It is the live event and in-house broadcasting operator that is a partnership among theatre chain owners, and you are essentially buying a minority interest in that LLC. It is a fascinating business that may grow but you are basically purchasing a minority interest in a royalty stream. So don’t go into this thinking you are buying into the operating company or into a movie theatre chain.
To demonstrate how complicated this IPO is, you should see how large the underwriting group is. The lead underwriters are Credit Suisse, J.P.Morgan, Lehman, and Morgan Stanley; others in the syndicate are AGM Securities, Allen & Co, Banc of America, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and UBS.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Cramer’s STOP TRADING segment today was on the road on a college tour.
On FedEx (FDX) Merrill Lynch said $135; Cramer said he thinks they are best in show even though he was disappointed with UPS (UPS) and he thinks their multiple is too low. He likes it, and on the $135 target from Merrill Lynch he thinks that FDX deserves to be higher.
On National Oilwell Varco (NOV)…Cramer said the conference call is full of numbers that put tech numbers to shame. He said it’s a sanctioned monopoly on building rigs and it’s up $3 but this is a prelude to being up $10 and he thinks it goes to $70 since they are printing money.
Another sub-prime lender blowing up is a gift to be able to buy Countrywide (CFC) on a discount. CFC is mostly immune from these smaller deals and he thinks these are Good for CFC because they’ll get more market share and its’s going higher.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Stock Tickers: GSF, RIG, SLB, HAL, UCO, OIH, XOM
On this morning’s Wall Street Confidential on TheStreet.com, Cramer is commenting on energy as a permanently higher pricing environment and he referred back to that Schlumberger (SLB-NYSE) conference call plus GlobalSantaFe (GSF-NYSE) and Transocean (RIG-NYSE). He noted the stocks haven’t done all that well, but their books of business are doing very well.
Cramer said ‘deepwater’ is doing very well because it is very expensive and the only way to replenish each company’s reserves now. On a longer-term view he thinks getting to the new sources of energy is inaccessible or difficult and all the low-hanging oil and gas has been found, but that doesn’t mean it’s running out; on the demand you can’t expect China and India to use less energy ahead.
ExxonMobil (XOM-NYSE) says they want to pass on that they believe in $30’s to $40’s Oil, but since they signed an unfavorable contract with Chavez in Venezuela their actions show they are willing to believe in higher prices. In natural gas there is no extra storage space and the excess supply and the companies have lost their prospects for being shielded. He doesn’t think gas is done but notes the drop in Universal Compression Holdings (UCO-NYSE) and Halliburton (HAL-NYSE) dropping on great numbers. Some are shorting the HOLDRs (OIH) and buying the ones that can’t really be acquired.
This goes on further and is only a partial coverage of his segment, but it sounds like Cramer isn’t backing away from higher energy prices (than historically) and isn’t backing away from being bullish on select energy services and drilling names.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
Stock Tickers: DISH, MSFT, DTV
This morning Engadget is covering a story where Echostar (DISH-NASDAQ) is close a to deal with Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) to bring the satellite digital programming to PC’s. DirecTV (DTV-NASDAQ) has such an offering signed, so this may not be the most unexpected pact and may be sort of an "it’s about time" issue.
What is interesting on this is that there is not a timeline, and it is not without issues. Many "cable loyalists" who get the Triple Play packages would be interested in being able to carry this IN ADDITION to their cable for internet, cable TV, and telephones. But they don’t want the hassle of setting up satellite dish. If I was personally going to do that it would have to be on the front top of my residence as it has to face south, and I presume there are many that would (either themselves or their spouse) cringe at pulling up to the driveway to be greeted by the satellite dish right in front as the first thing you see when you come home.
These points are arguable, but as 3-G takes better hold there are going to be more and more avenues for subscribers to link to these without being as tethered to an actual satellite. This could open up a huge market of higher-end business users on top of the residential users. So if they can make this work great, and if not then it’s just the natural progression of one service compared to another.
If this was truly revolutionary you would expect that DISH shares would be up, but they are down 0.6% at $40.75 on the day. With all of the still planned convergence technologies, Wall Street appears to be taking the less-critical stance on this for now.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
From Ticker Sense
While US equity indices as a whole continue to see low volatility, there are individual stocks that offer trading opportunities due to greater than average daily price changes.
Below, we highlight the 25 stocks in the S&P 500 over $15 per share that have had the highest average absolute daily price (%) change over the last 50 days. We also highlight the 25 stocks that have seen the largest increase in that 50-day average over the last 50 days.
Because these stocks offer long and short opportunities, we also include our timing grade, which highlights where the stock is currently trading compared to its normal price range. Using a scale of A to F, "A"s are considered the most oversold while "F"s are considered the most overbought.
From Ticker Sense
While the last year has been rough for Sallie Mae shareholders (SLM), yesterday was particularly painful as the stock fell another 9% for its largest drop in 14 years. This followed the release of President Bush’s budget plan for next year, in which he proposed further cuts in federal payments to companies who provide student loans.
The day was slightly less painful however for the Chairman of SLM. Last Thursday and Friday, he sold 400,000 shares (roughly 33% of his stock holdings) at prices between $45.75 and $46.03 in what was by far his largest stock sale in at least a year. With yesterday’s closing price of $42.37, the chairman saved himself at least $1,344,000.00.
From Ticker Sense
Below is a list of S&P 500 stocks that currently have the longest winning and losing streaks. Stocks highlighted in green have performed well on days following similar streaks, while stocks highlighted in red have performed poorly.
IPO withdrawals are always an interesting aspect of the IPO market, but these can lead to insights in the sector in which they each operate. Yesterday there was a withdrawal of the IPO filing by Trident Resources in Canada, which was set to IPO with the ticker TRNT on NASDAQ.
Trident is a Calgary-based natural gas exploration and development company, and the withdrawal was over a proposed $300 million IPO. It is a quasi-alternative energy provider that develops natural gas from coal. Here is the problem: It cited market conditions as the reason for the withdrawal. The underwriters were listed as Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and TD Securities; and this one had been in the hopper since its filing in mid-2006.
This is an interesting story because it can have implications in the sector. Trident was just formed as an operating entity in 2006, so it isn’t as though you can infer that all of these might be in trouble; but earlier last year and the year before companies like this were able to come public almost without question and without any skepticism.
Coal companies and natural gas companies have not enjoyed the same steady demand as oil companies. This could have implications in other similar offerings that have been said to looking to come public via an IPO later in the year.
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
The torpedoes from Ninendo’s Wii ran true. According to Reuters, Wii outsold Sony (SNE) Playstation 3 in Japan last month by a margin of 3-to-1.
Reuters quotes the largest game magazine outfit Enterbrain in Japan as saying that Wii sold 405,000 units in January, and PS3 sold only 148,000. Since launch, the Wii has sold about double the units that PS3 has in Sony’s home market.
Great Caesar’s Ghost.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Eastman Kodak (EK) is coming out with a new printer. On paper, it looks unbelievable. The ink stays vibrant for 100 years instead of the normal decade or so. Ink cartridges are cheap. The thing only costs about $200.
The product is aimed at Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) massive printer business which is the bulk of that company’s operating profits. It will also compete with printer "also ran" Lexmark (LXK).
But, the market tells the story. Lexmark, a much weaker player than HP, is down 2.4% to $61.15 at 10:20 AM Eastern. Hewlett-Packard is down a little over 1% to $42.31, but its 52-week high is $43.72.
Eastman Kodak is off .4% to $26.17. Over the last two years EK is down over 20% while the Dow is up close to 18%.
The problem is that, no matter how good the product, no one on Wall St. believes in Kodak or its management. The company has fumbled the ball too many times. Kodak has not been able to replace its falling film revenue. It takes charges almost every quarter, and, as Irina Logovinsky, CPA of Morningstar points out: "Consumers may not be printing as many digital photos as expected, a trend that could undermine Kodak’s efforts in digital reproduction".
Good product from a loser company.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
By Ryan Barnes. Edited By Douglas A. McIntyre
News Corp (NWS.A) – Price $24; Break-up Value $25
It was put best by Jon Ogg in the Entrenched Corporate Leaders profile just a few weeks ago: “News Corp is Rupert Murdoch, and he is News Corp”. The epitome of the media mogul, Murdoch built News Corp channel by channel and page by page. Properties and investments are constantly flowing in and out of the company in a seemingly shotgun approach to finding golden media assets. The stock has finally broken out of a longstanding trading range recently (no doubt helped by the retirement of John Malone’s 16% stake in the company in the DirecTV deal), but the valuation is still kept down a bit by the murkiness of the overall strategy and a few operating segments that are very old-line media, offering good cash flows but little revenue growth.
There are too many moving parts to break out each one individually, but there are some properties that have serious shareholder value that could be unlocked by examining their potential sale values, as well as assessing the value of the various equity stakes New Corp has. To start with, the Newspaper and Book Publishing segments are low-growth but steady cash cows that would allow for a little multiple expansion at News Corp. Based on industry-level multiples of 10x operating earnings, the two segments could sell for about $7.5b cash. The Magazines & Inserts segment (made up of mostly ad circulars) is a steady cash machine worth the same multiple, or about $3b.
The Television group could be spun off (again) as FOX, regaining its previous multiple of 13x operating earnings (and equivalent to newly spun-off CBS), giving that segment a value of just over $9.5b. The various equity stakes (including BskyB, GemStar, and NDS Group) have a combined value of about $10.5b, based on current market prices.
We’ll leave Mr. Murdoch something to hold on to in the form of a News Corp that controls the Filmed Entertainment and Cable Broadcast divisions, as the 2 groups can diversify cash flows and should be allowed to float to a multiple of 20-21x operating earnings, in line with peers. This slimmed-down NWS stock would have a market cap of $40b.
Now here’s where things get interesting. We’ve covered all the operating segments of the company except for the “Other” segment, which includes what some shareholders might have bought the stock for in the first place – the Fox Interactive Media Group, which is a collection of internet-based company assets that might easily be spun off in the near future, and including the MySpace.com website. Murdoch has spoke fondly of this one from the get-go, so you’d better believe he’s got a strategy for it. Investors loved the traffic numbers but wondered how it would be monetized. We also thought that about Google once.
Ironically, a deal with Google opened the door to just how valuable this set of properties will be to shareholders, with a guaranteed $900m in fees from Google to News Corp. already set in stone. Various analysts have pegged the value of the FIM group at anywhere from $3 to $15 billion, and with the recent prices paid for sites like YouTube as well as the stunning growth at GOOG itself, we feel pretty secure going on the high end of estimates as we wait for the revenue figures to build. Murdoch himself said just recently that he could sell MySpace for $6b “today”, which probably means he’s already received soft offers. The good news is that without counting this group, we’ve already arrived at a value of $22.50 per share, right about where the stock is trading now. So if you’re high on the prospects of the FIM group and MySpace and think it’s worth between $6 and $10 billion (like we do), the breakup value comes to $25 per share, and if not, the floor on the stock is still right there at current levels. Given the recent run-up in the stock (up nearly 50% in the past year), we think investors are betting on there being some serious value in the internet properties; as with all things, however, only time will tell.
Ryan Barnes
Ryan Barnes has over 10 years’ experience in portfolio management and investment research, covering equities, fixed income, and derivative products. Ryan spent the past 5 years working as an institutional trader & manager for high-net worth investors, working with Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and many others. Ryan is currently working as a writer and financial modeling consultant on hedging and capital appreciation strategies, and does not own securities in the companies being covered.
IAC (IACI) has the word "interactive" in its name. And, it owns Ask.com, which as about 5% of the online search business.
But, the company is hardly an online operation. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2006, released today, was $1.8 billion, up 8% from the same period a year ago. Operating income before amortization was up slightly to $267.6 million.
But, the portion of the company that includes Ask.com, labeled "Media and Advertising" in the company’s financials, had revenue of only $160 million. It was up 46%, but is an extremely small part of the total. Operating income from this segment was just under $14 million, not much of a margin for an internet operation. It did grow 81%.
At its core, IAC is Home Shopping Network. And, it will stay that way unless the internet operations are spun off.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Tyco (TYC-NYSE) is one that has finally shed its old corrupt image and is now in the ‘pending’ file of companies that are in the break-up group. The stock has traded back above $30.00 back for a long period of time in 2004 to 2005, but it has never been able to reclaim its hay-day values back when it traded between $40.00 and $60.00 from 1999 to early in 2002. This is all after the stock spent most of the last 18 months under $30.00.
We have noted this one on numerous occasions about the pending break-up and much of the value can be seen in Tyco in its SEC filings for the break-ups into three units.
Back on January 23, Jim Cramer had said he thought that the additional value to shareholders in the break-up would be about 10% on the low-end and 30% on the high-end in additional value than the overall conglomerate value at the time. The stock was under $30.85 at that time and it closed up at $33.21 yesterday.
This morning after Tyco beat earnings its shares were indicated up around $33.50 and are now back around the $33.15 mark. What is interesting here is that there has already been a 6% run in roughly two weeks, so 60% of that lower-end appreciation is already implied in the stock. Tyco did beat earnings this morning, but right now the street is trying to evaluate this on a basis of what the when-issued companies will look like.
This shouldn’t really imply that all of the upside has been taken out of the stock, but some of the upside has already been realized. The argument can always be made that this is finally just catching back up to the market performance, and it is no longer applicable to compare Tyco to the likes of a General Electric (GE-NYSE) and 3M (MMM-NYSE).
Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2007
(ABT) Abbott announces plans to initiate the world’s first drug-eluting stent clinical trial solely in women.
(ADM) Archer Daniels Midland named Patricia Woertz as Chairman.
(ALD) Allied Capital received subpoena from U.S. Attorney over phone records illegally being taken.
(ALU) Alcatel-Lucent may cut 20,000 jobs now, more than the pre-merger estimates.
(AMSC) American Superconductor says receives order from Suzlon Energy for Australian wind farm.
(AVP) Avon $0.41 EPS vs $0.38e.
(BCRX) BioCryst Pharm says EMEA grants Orphan Drug designation to it’s Fodosine for the treatment of cutaneous T-Cell lymphoma.
(CE) Celanese $0.77 EPS vs $0.58e.
(CHINA) CDC Corp puts Q$ guidance higher than expected.
(CMS) CMS Energy announces sale of ownership interests in businesses in the Middle East, Africa, and India.
(CMTL) Comtech Telecom receives $2.5M purchase order amendment for NATO Force tracking system.
(CSCO) Cisco reports earnings after the close.
(CYBX) Cyberonics depression implantable device will not get Medicare coverage.
(DRIV) Digital River announced $9.4 million charges in 8-years of options pricing, but says no officer or director engaged in any wrongdoings for personal gains.
(EMR) Emerson $0.55 EPS VS $0.53e.
(EOP) Equity Office gets raised bid by Blackstone to $55.50 per share.
(GE) GE is acquiring into the EU Water Market.
(HOKU) HOKU Scientific and Solar-Fabrik announce plan to increase volume of polysilicon supply agreement.
(HOLL) Hollywood Media acquires broadway ticketing business of Showtix.
(IMCL) ImClone Systems opts-out of development agreement with UCB to focus resources to focus on vascular growth receptor.
(ISE) International Securities Exchange $0.41 EPS vs $0.37e.
(JRC) Journal register $0.26 EPS vs $0.24e.
(MANT) ManTech Wins $80M Army contract to support global property management services.
(MHP) McGraw Hill’s S&P unit is acquiring two index fund families from Goldman Sachs.
(MOVI) Movie Gallery is refinancing its senior credit facilities.
(MTG) MGIC merging with Radian (RDN) for 0.965 shares of MTG per RDN share.
(NSM) National Semiconductor lowered guidance.
(OMTR) Omniture gets Zune optimization order from Microsoft.
(OPXA) Opexa Therapeutics announced encouraging clinical data on novel T-Cell vaccination therapy for rheumatoid arthritis.
(PLD) Prologis $1.11 EPS vs $1.07e.
(RATE) Bankrate.com $0.27 EPS vs $0.24e.
(RNWK) Real Networks is acquiring Atrativa in Brazil.
(SCRX) Sciele Pharma signs a development and marketing agreement for a Novel Combination of fenofibrate and pravastatin to treat mixed dyslipidemia.
(SOHU) Sohu.com $0.16 EPS vs $0.17e.
(STZ) Constellation Brands is buying Svedka Vodka-Mark One.
(TBIO) Transgenomic renews collaboration with Fiuotecnica S.r.l. to develop and market gene panel for cardiovascular disease.
(TM) Toyota showed 7% earnings gain.
(TWTR) Tweeter $0.08 EPS vs $0.20e; unsure if comparable but cites television category competition as reason for weakness.
(TYC) Tyco $0.45 EPS vs $0.44e.
(ULBI) Ultralife Batteries receives $4.6 mln in military battery orders.
(URBN) Urban Outfitters reports Q4 sales of $360.8M vs $358.0M consensus.
(VIAC) ViaCell has made the decision not to advance CB001 in future clinical trials.
by Jon C. Ogg
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