Daily Archives: June 11, 2007

Cramer a Bit Different on Apple & Qwest (AAPL, Q)

Tonight on the 500th episode of CNBC’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer also came out a bit different than just recently on Apple (AAPL-NASDAQ ) and Qwest Communications (Q-NYSE ). Whatis interesting is that Cramer came out on Apple and said the reason forthe drop today on the programming concern is something he feels iswrong and you can buy that weakness. On Qwest Communications, JimCramer said this is very odd and out of the ordinary and was notexpected. He even replayed an interview tape where Notebart said he wasstaying.

Buying Apple on pullbacks has worked for the last fewyears in the stock, but we still have a couple weeks before the iPhonerelease and ship dates. This means that unless this is the trueexception to the rule that we’ll end up seeing some large profit takingimmediately before and during the news cycle. There’s always a shot itcould be different this time, after all it is Apple we are talkingabout. This change of his stance was also a bit different than what hegave on a prior pre-iPhone strategy. In all fairness, this is one of his "New Four Horsemen of Tech."

Notebart,the retiring CEO of Qwest, just told Cramer last month that he was NOTretiring and that is a concern for me too. Out of personal experience,when a loved CEO leaves it is often hard to replace him. When it is aloved CEO that just earlier said he wasn’t leaving the company, thenyou have to worry about something sinister. Even if nothing bad is onthe horizon in the case of Qwest, the statistics usually work out to’not be in’ on strange developments such as this.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer & Mad Money Host The 500th Show (Major 2007 Highlights)

Stock Tickers: AAPL, YHOO, EBAY, LVLT, DNDN, NYX, AMZN, FWLT, GOOG,DELL, MSFT, INTC, C, RAD, SVNT, CSCO, MO, GS, HAL, DNDN

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer featured his 500th show on the air.  He noted that there is not a need to go over 600 stocks in a year as much as there is to bring you methodologies and a thought process. Cramer said he was going to review some of his blunders since the show began, but we wanted to show some of the key calls with some real longevity that he has made this year that are not just one-time calls here and there.  These are not the calls that Cramer discussed on his show tonight, but these are actually the big calls he’s made for longer-term in individual stocks that are still pertinent and active.

Cramer’s TOP 9 PICKS FOR 2007……..

Cramer’s "NEW FOUR HORSEMEN OF TECHNOLOGY," plus some second tier technology picks.

Cramer’s Apple (AAPL) strategy ahead of the iPhone release.

Will eBay (EBAY) & Yahoo! (YHOO) Merge, as Cramer hopes.

Cramer has four groups for a wildly bullish stock market, and he’s got oil and gas plays for the same wildly bullish market.

He’s still sticking with Google (GOOG)….Did he say $1,000 or $600?  He’s even backing Dell (DELL) after Michael Dell returned.

Cramer even gave a bunch of near and long-term targets on each DJIA component for the year.

Cramer still wants Semel out of Yahoo! (YHOO) and wants Chuck Prince out of Citigroup (C), just like we do.

He even gave some methodologies for the next Dendreon (DNDN).

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

ETF Winners & Losers (June 11, 2007)

Stock Tickers: DBB, XES, GAF, RYU, DBA, EWZ, GML, URE, XME, XHB, TLO, ICF, EWL, EWY

DJIA                13,424.96; -0.57 (0.00%)
S&P500          1,509.12; -1.45 (0.10%)
NASDAQ         2,572.15; -1.39 (0.05%)
10-Yr Bond     5.137%; +0.019%
NYSE Volume          2,485,616,000
NASDAQ Volume    1,677,733,000    

WINNERS

PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) 2.34%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) +2.5%
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund    +1.80%
SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)    +1.76%
Rydex S&P Equal Weight Utilities (RYU)    +1.73%
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) +1.70%
iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) +1.68%
SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America (GML) +1.65%

LOSERS

Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) (-2.89%)
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME)    (-2.14%)
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) (-1.95%)
StateStreet Trust LEHMAN L-T Treasury (TLO) (-1.82%) 
iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF) (-1.70%)
iShares MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL) (-1.06%)
iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY) (-0.95%)

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Take-Two’s Double-Take: Shares Reacting to Earnings (TTWO)

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO-NASDAQ) reported earnings: Net loss for the recent quarter was $51.2 million or $0.71 per share and Non-GAAP net loss was $29.7 million or $0.41 per share in the second quarter of 2007; net revenue for the second quarter was $205.4 million.  Estimates on non-GAAP were -$0.58 EPS and revenue expectations were $204.4 million.  These numbers are down from last year and a bit ahead of expectations.

Take-Two also announced a restructuring plan to improve financial and operating performance AND named Lainie Goldstein Named CFO.It is restructuring international operations, realigning label and sudio administrative functions, consolidating the 2K and 2K Sports unit management and marketing, and consolidating third party PC distribution into North America.  The company will reduce 425 million in costs and $15 million.  These restructurings will also entail an undisclosed number of layoffs.

ANNUAL GUIDANCE:
Take-Two is reiterating its guidance for fiscal 2007 of revenue in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion and break even results on a GAAP basis, including stock-based compensation expense of $0.22 per share, but excluding any charges related to the Company’s reorganization expenses and restructuring initiatives. Included in the Company’s reorganization expenses is additional stock-based compensation expense of $0.03 per share. NEXT QUARTER GUIDANCE Q3: Take-Two is providing initial guidance of net revenue in the range of $195 million to $215 million, with a GAAP net loss per share in the range of $0.60 to $0.65, including stock-based compensation expense of $0.06 per share, but excluding any charges related to the reorganization expenses and restructuring initiatives.  TWO QUARTERS Q4: For the fourth quarter ending October 31, 2007, Take-Two is providing initial guidance of net revenue in the range of $520 million to $550 million, with diluted net earnings per share in the range of $1.35 to $1.40, including stock-based compensation expense of $0.06 per share, but excluding any charges related to the Company’s reorganization expenses and restructuring initiatives. Included in the reorganization expenses is additional stock-based compensation expense of $0.03 per share.

Shares dipped initially after closing up $1.5% at $18.94, but shares appear to be up about 1% at $19.20 after the realization of a turnaround plan is just starting in a first quarter.  Over the last year shares are well above the lows of $9.06 and well below the highs of $24.80.  It’s hard to know what the street will key in on in any restructuring of the only large US video game company that was a corporate mess, but so far it appears the glass is half full.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Limelight Networks (LLNW) In The 52-Week Low Club

Northwest Air (NWA) Oil and gas price run-ups never help the airlines. Just out of Chapter 11. Down to $22.45 from IPO high of $26.50.

US Air (LCC) Calyon Securities cuts EPS estimates on several airlines including US Air. Down to $29.40 from 52-week high of $63.27.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) Big newspaper chain keeps slipping. Down to $26.85 from 52-week high of $44.95.

Tweeter Home Entertainment (TWTR) Files for Chapter 11. Down to $.18 from 52-week high of $7.12.

Netbank (NTBK) CFO gets "change of control" clause in contract, but the company may not make it at all.Down to $.22 from 52-week high of $6.90.

Limelight Networks (LLNW) New IPO. Ran up nicely on first day, then down today. Bottomed at $20.18 after $24.33 post public offering.

Bigband Networks (BBND) Another recent IPO having patent problems with ex-employees. Drops to $14.74 from high of $21.63.

Douglas A. McIntyre

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK): Bad News Hits Diabetes Drug Hard

Sales of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) diabetes drug Avandia have taken a pounding since a study showed that the drug increased heart risk. According to a research note from Morgan Stanley, Avandia and a related drug  Avandamet had a combined 35.3 percent share of the market for pharmaceuticals in their class in the week ended June 1. Before the study about the risks of the drug appeared in The New England Journal of Medicine, that share was 53.8%.

News reports have indicated that GSK has tried to discredit the journal report and may have tried to intimidate a doctor who offered similar findings to the FDA. The agency is now considering putting a warning on the medication.

Looks like the strong-arming didn’t work.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Altria (MO) Shrugs Off Court Ruling

The case was important enough to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Altria (MO) wanted the cases against it regarding it marketing of "light" cigarettes heard in federal court. The plantiffs wanted it to stay in the state venue.

According to The Wall Street Journal: "The class-action lawsuit alleges Philip Morris violated Arkansas laws with deceptive marketing of its cigarette brands Marlboro Lights and Cambridge Lights".

But, if the decision was important, Wall St. ignored it. MO shares were flat at $70.33. Sound and fury signifying nothing.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Earnings Previews: Brokerage Firms June, 2007 (BSC, GS, LEH)

Stock Tickers: BSC, GS, LEH, MS

This Week could have quite easily been titled "Brokerage Firms Earnings Season."  We have earnings reports from the major bulge-bracket Wall Street firms this week.

On Tuesday, Lehman (LEH-NYSE) reports earnings with estimates coming in at $1.88 EPS and $4.97 Billion in revenues.  With the 1.9% gain today, Lehman is up roughly 3% since May 31.

On Thursday, we have Bear Stearns (BSC-NYSE) and Goldman Sachs (GS-NYSE).  Bear Stearns (BSC-NYSE) is expected to post $3.50 EPS and $2.33 Billion in revenues. Bear Stearns (BSC-NYSE) shares are down less than 1% since May 31.  Goldman Sachs (GS-NYSE) is expected to post $4.79 EPS and $10.15 Billion in revenues.  Goldman Sachs shares are down about 2% since May 31.

Morgan Stanley (MS) is off this week, with earnings scheduled for June 20, 2007.

As a reminder, the formula that traders look for in bulge bracket earnings is for earnings per share to be above estimates.  A mild beat is usually treated as a miss, and it has been frequent in recent years for brokerage firms to sell off if they have been running up into earnings. 

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Eddie Lampert Raising More Funds? (SHLD, C)

Eddie Lampert’s ESL Investments is reportedly set to raise a few billion dollars for the new ESL hedge fund.  What would Lampert be able to do with more money?  He’d be able to take larger and larger stakes in other companies.  He could go back into acquisitions or recapitalizations.  He could become one of the top activist investors around with a much larger powder keg and piggy bank. 

After he took a small stake in Citigroup (C-NYSE), there has been more and more speculation that Lampert was going to bring on some larger partners for recapitalization and acquisition-esque holdings.  The only bad news here is that you’ll have to piggy back his investments after he takes stakes if you want to participate, because it doesn’t look like Sears Holdings (SHLD-NYSE) will be the big beneficiary here.

CNBC’s David Faber has noted that Lampert hired Goldman Sachs to raise $3 Billion to $5 Billion and funds will have a 5 year lock-up with restrictive notification periods.  David Faber also noted that the track record of Lampert may allow him to raise even more funds.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

First iPhone Knock-Off Misses the Mark (AAPL, 2498-TSX)

The first iPhone Knock Off is already being sent around for reviews, yet so far Apple (AAPL-NASDAQ) won’t have any sleep lost.  If you watch the CNET video review of the telephone called the HTC Touch, this will look familiar but will obviously miss the mark.  The HTC Touch is from High Tech Computer Corp., listed as ticker "2498" on the TAIWAN Stock Exchange. 

Here are the specs for the phone, which is set at some point to be available in the second half of 2007.  If this phone is ridiculously cheaper it may have shot for the ‘iPhone-esque’ devices that will certainly be coming, but if this is deemed anywhere close to the same pricing and isn’t cheap then this will just fade away as another ‘me too’ copycat or knock-off.  It isn’t as sleek in features as far as what has been indicated, and you know where the hype is going to be based the rest of 2007 for devices such as this.  If you look at ‘where to buy’ on the HTC website, you’ll see that this is also more of the emerging market plays.

This isn’t the first attempt to capture some of the hype off another super-hot tech gadget, and definitely won’t be the last.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Penny Stock Promoters Gone Wild

Perhaps it is the time of year or just the general run up in the market, but the number of online promotions for penny stock services is flourishing.

One particularly exciting promotion comes from PennyStockSleuth. The site claims that is has "three underground penny stock picks poised soar up to 300% in 2007". The site even promotes a turf stock that no one knows is publicly traded. Perhaps that even includes the company’s management.

Then, there is the GrowthStockGuru. The site claims that one of its picks, City Telecom, went up 341% in four days. It declines to mention whether any of its selections went down. But, maybe none of them did.

Another favorite has to be VisionInvesting. Its website says that, if its projections are correct, an $18,000 investment could be worth $1,170,000 in ten years. The company does not mention what will happen if it is not right.

Finally, for now, there is the OTCStockExchange. On September 26 of last year, it recommended a company called Sustainable Energy. Over the next month, the stock had a 179,000% return. The company’s stock chart indicates that it has lost about 75% of that gain since then.

It all sound great. Big money.brilliant picking. But one has to wonder who regulates the stuff.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about and hold no interest in any penny stock newsletter.

Earnings Warning & Denying Merger Rumors Hurt Steel Stocks (NUE, STLD, X, RS, AKS)

Stock Tickers: NUE, STLD, X, RS, AKS

Nucor Corp. (NUE-NYSE) has a bit of a surprising news this morning: a steel company issuing an earnings warning. It now expects that earnings for the second quarter ending June 30, 2007 are expected to be in the range of $1.05 to $1.15 per diluted share, compared to estimates of $1.39 and compared to $1.26 EPS in the first quarter of 2007.

Here is the explanation from the company:  Second quarter earnings have been significantly impacted by lower shipments from Nucor’s bar mill group. The rapid increase in scrap prices in the first quarter resulted in hedge buying during that quarter by our customers ahead of anticipated increases in steel products pricing. This hedge buying by our customers produced a record for first quarter shipments from our bar mill group. In addition to the first quarter hedge buying driven by volatility in scrap pricing, bar market demand in the second quarter has been marginally reduced by softness in the automotive and residential construction segments. This softness reduced demand for our SBQ bar and rebar products. We expect second quarter bar shipments to decline approximately 17% from the first quarter shipments.

This news combined with the news that ThyssenKrupp in Europe denied market rumors and reports that it was in talks to acquire U.S. Steel (X-NYSE). 

This combined earnings warning from a key player and less consolidation in the sector is pressuring other steel names: Steel Dynamics (STLD-NASDAQ) -4%, US Steel (X-NYSE) -5.5%, Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS-NYSE) -2%, AK Steel (AKS) -2.5%.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Alzheimer’s Data Pumps Medivation & Neurochem (MDVN, NRMX)

Some new data is helping two small biotech stocks today at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference on Prevention of Dementia in Washington, DC.  The latest figure showed 26.6 million people worldwide are living with Alzheimer’s and that figure is expected to quadruple by the year 2050.  In March, the Alzheimer’s Association reported that there are now more than 5 million people in the United States living with Alzheimer’s.

Medivation (MDVN) shares are trading up 30% at what will be a 52-week high after it its Alzheimer’s treatment Dimebon significantly improved symptoms of the disease over one year.  After a one-year mark, patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s taking its Dimebon showed benefits in cognition, overall clinical function, normal daily living activities, and improved behavioral problems compared with those patients receiving the placebo.

Neurochem (NRMX) is up over 4% pre-market after release of data on its Alzhemed, although the company readily admits that there is a long ways to go and that the data analysis will still be months away.

In the past we covered some of the Alzheimer’s stocks after a Barron’s piece on the subject, although some of the data from the companies with ‘promising treatments’ has changed.

Here is a full list of the news releases from the conference.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Qwest (Q): Another CEO Leaves, Another Stock Rises

Richard Notebaert, longtime CEO of Qwest (Q) is leaving. He is 59, and the announcement is odd. He will remain until his successor is found. One would think the board would have handled that and then disclose that Notebaert was leaving.

But, he is on his way, and the stock is way up before the open, climbing about 3% to $10.43, which would put it right at its 52-week high.

Notebaert is not leaving because of the performance of the company’s shares. Like other major telecom company’s Qwest has done very well. It is up about 40% over the last year. It has moved nicely despite the fact that the company does not have a significant cellular business and does not have the capital to build-out a large fiber to the home operation the way that Verizon is.

But, there is never any telling. The board may think the company has gone as far as it can, and the CEO may disagree.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Stifel Nicolaus Slashes REIT Ratings

The brokerage and research firm Stifel Nicolaus has decided that REITS are either at or are close to their inflection points.  REITs have been very strong performers in light of many large mergers, although they have already taken a decent breather in the last two weeks or so as the pace of mergers in the group has quieted down.

Most of the analyst ratings out of Stifel Nicolaus today are a downgrade from “BUY” to “HOLD.”  Here is a partial list of the liquid REIT stocks that saw downgrades today:

American Financial Realty Trust (AFR), Boston Properties (BXP), Brookfield Properties (BPO), BRT Realty Trust (BRT), Capital Trust (CT), Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR), Highwoods Properties (HIW), KIMCO Realty (KIM), Kite Realty (KRG), Newcastle Investment Corp. (NCT), Northstar Realty (NRF), ProLogis (PLD), Quadra Realty (QRR), Simon Properties (SPG), SL Green Realty (SLG), Washington REIT (WRE), Weingarten Realty (WRI). 

Jon C. Ogg
Jun 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

AMD (AMD): More Evidence Of Trouble

The Inquirer reports returned from Computex with grave concerns about the launch of AMD’s (AMD) new chip which is currently call Barcelona. AMD’s channel partners are concerned that the chip will not launch on time, or, that it will not live up to AMD’s high hopes for using it to get share back from Intel (INTC).

When The Inquirer asked about progress on the new chip it mostly got answers along the lines of "no comment". As the online tech site said, that is a response far worse than it was hearing a few short months ago.

Concerns about the new chip pushed AMD’s shares down from $14.40 last week to $13.59 before they made a modest recovery. But, the stock could test a new 52-week low at $12.60 if The Inquirer is right.

Perhaps Dell (DELL) Could Sell Its PCs At Apple (AAPL) Stores

One of the biggest threats to Dell’s (DELL) comeback may be Apple. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Lenovo, and Acer probably have a fairly steady hold on their pieces of the market. But, the Mac’s share has been growing. Last quarter Apple sold about 1.5 million Macs.

And, now Apple is preparing to launch its new Leopard OS. Users of the iPod, drawn to its easy-to-use interface may be willing to look at the other big product in Apple’s line. And, if early reports about the Leopard are correct, it will make using the Mac an even better overall experience.

According to The Associate Press, analysts predict that Mac sale will keep up their double digit growth rate, which is a pace that Dell can only dream about. Dell has begun selling its PCs at retail, starting with Wal-Mart. But, warehouse outlets and department stores are not the idea locations to sell computers.

Perhaps Apple would let Dell sell its PCs at the Apple retail stores. For a piece of the action.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Pre-Market Stock News (June 11, 2007)

(ADLR) Adolor said a complete response to the POI ‘Approvable’ Letter now targeted for 3Q 2007.
(ALXN) Alexion Pharm says studies show efficacy and safety of it’s Soliris in broad population of PNH patients in Phase III studies examining Soliris for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria.
(BYBI) Backyard Burgers agrees to be acquired for $6.50 cash per share.
(CHINA) CDC Corp making a gaming company acquisition.
(CSGS) CSG Systems is paying $23.5M cash to acquire private ComTec.
(CUP) Peru Copper gets a friendly takeover offer from Aluminum of China.
(EME) EMCOR raised guidance and announced a 2-1 stock split.
(ENDO) Endo pharmaceuticals’ FROVA Phase III study data showed short-term prevention treatment reduces frequency and severity of menstrual migraine.
(ERIC) Ericsson in GSM expansion pact with China Mobile.
(GERN) Geron says research indicates its embryonic stem cell based therapy for spinal cord injury evades direct attack response by the human immune system.
(GOOG) Google announced search and ad pact with Sina in China.
(GOL) Gol Intelligent Airlines said Continental will sell its tickets for travel to Brazil and South America.
(IBM) IBM paying close to $750 million to acquire Telogic AB in Sweden.
(IMCL) Imclone said FDA accepted and granted priority review of ERBITUX sBLA for overall survival in patients with advanced colorectal cancer.
(JOSB) Jos. A. Bank $0.45 EPS vs $0.42e.
(MDVN) Medivation’s Dimebon maintains statistically significant benefit on all five efficacy endpoints in Alzheimer’s disease after one year of therapy
(NGA) North American Galvanizing trades ex-split to reflect a 3-2 stock split.
(NRMX) Neurochem presents update on Alzhemed, but said that no predictions or conclusions can yet be made regarding the outcome of the Phase III study.
(OI) Owen-Illinois is selling its plastics unit to rexam for $1.8 Billion.
(OSUR) OraSure received a CE mark of approval from the EU for its OraQuick rapid HIV test.
(PRGS) Progress Software added one of the Dow Jones news feeds to its algorithmic trading platform.
(PRW) Pro-Pharmaceutical submits data to begin a 505B2 filing with FDA for new formulation of Irinotecan for potential cancer treatment indications.
(RIMG) Rimage announced a $6.5M order from new major national retail customer.
(SINA) Sina in strategic search and ad partnership with Google in China.
(TRLG) True Religion CEO reduced holdings of 2.3 million shares in a private placement.

Jon C. Ogg
June 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Ford (F) Gets Bankers To Sell Jaguar and Land Rover

Ford (F) has hired Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to sell its Range Rover and Jaguar brands. Jaguar has been losing money for some time. Both brands are part of the Ford Premier Automotive Group which, including all its brands, made a most profit last quarter.

Ford has clearly made the decision to focus on it North American operations and core businesses in Europe and South America. The company has raised substantial money, so selling the brands is probably not primarily a financial decision. But, fixing its domestic operations will require such a Herculean effort that jettisoning most other operations may be management’s only sensible choice.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Google (GOOG) Fight Baidu With Sina.com Partnership

Google (GOOG) has not been able to get market share from Baidu (BIDU) in China. Measurements put Baidu’s share at over 60% and Google’s at below 25%.

Google has now made an effort to change that by setting up a partnership with Sina.com (SINA), one of China’s largest portals. The Associated Press picked up Google’s spin on the news: "Sina is the most influential portal in China and a household brand in China’s Internet industry," said Kai-Fu Lee, vice president of Google.

It’s no guarantee that Google can pick up its China business, but it has got itself a very good new piece of real estate.

Douglas A. McIntyre