Daily Archives: June 22, 2007

This Week’s Top Active Stock News Stories (June 22, 2007)

Stock Tickers: WB, GE, SMH, TYC, BRK/A, BX, SBUX, KFT, SIRI, XMSR, CAKE, BAM

Most stories come out, affect a stock or a sector, and then cease to matter.  We have numerous stories that started this week, but should be kept up for an active review because many of these will matter in the week or weeks ahead.

If you can believe it, Wachovia (WB) hit a new 52-week low today.  Where did that come from???? Speaking of, many of these ethanol stocks got a boost Friday because of a bill, but some of these were choking on year lows just two days ago.  General Electric (GE) was hitting a new multi-year high this week, as did the chip stock ETF called the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH); neither high held for the week, but these will both be areas to watch.

Tyco International (TYC) will still spit up as of the end of June and start trading for real rather than when-issued on July 2.  At this point, we aren’t all that impressed with the valuation hopes.

Poor Warren Buffett.  He’s the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ and the third richest man, with a great track record.  Yet short sellers are betting more gainst his positions and Jim Cramer gave a breakdown with his own opinion on 10 Buffett picks and then 10 more picks that are current Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) holdings.

 

Jim Cramer did something unique this week, and it wasn’t Eddie Lampert praise.  He endorsed the exceptionally performing Brookfield Asset Management (BAM-NYSE) as "The Next Berkshire Hathaway, but on more of an international and infrastructure basis."  Now I can personally vouch that this company is a beast and a great company, but it doesn’t matter what I have to say.  If that wasn’t just put on more long-term radars for traders to buy on weakness, then it would mean something went very wrong….

If you ask me, I don’t think it is ‘fair or balanced’ but the media is going after the Apple (AAPL-NASDAQ) iPhone.  Yep, the tide of hype and over-coverage has started creating a tough coverage and negative bias.  The stock should get a ’sell the event’ right before and after the iPhone launches next Friday, but it doesn’t seem like Steve Jobs has created the first dud for the company.  The media is trying to pawn it that way though. "None Dare Call It Conspiracy."

General Electric (GE-NYSE) is forking over $1 Million for a TV interview with Paris Hilton when she gets out of jail.  She should have to donate that money to MADD or to Tramps Anyonymous.  This is rewarding for bad behavior.

Blackstone (BX-NYSE) made it public, despite all the media gossip against the private equity behemoth.  They are now a force to be reckoned with, or ‘wreck-ened’ by if you get in their way.  Like you didn’t know that.  They even closed up at $35.06, above the $31.00 pricing.  KKR and Carlyle are said to be filing any day now.

Starbucks (SBUX-NASDAQ) on skid row.  It isn’t the coffee, it isn’t the merchandise.  It’s the point of their growth cycle versus the earnings multiple people will pay for it.

Kraft (KFT-NYSE) may have been be on its own for a few weeks now, but activist investor Nelson Peltz has taken a decent stake in the company.  You can be sure he’s going to be rattling the cages over there to drive shareholder value for the next year.  They don’t have to like him, but they’ll make money if they follow him! This one’s going to be live news for some time.

SIRIUS (SIRI-NASDAQ) and XM Satellite (XMSR-NASDAQ) are cranking up their efforts to get merger support.  It can’t be an accident that both shares were up close to 6% on Friday when the market was in the tubes.  Stay tuned.

We came up with a plan for Cheesecake factory (CAKE-NASDAQ) to fix what it got downgraded over this week.  We didn’t really call it a personal buyout pick, although that could be possible if the stock gets too much weaker after a thrashing Thursday.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 4:16 pm in The Week, , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Wachovia (WB) Even big banks get hurt when the market falls. $51.84 down from 52-week high of $58.80.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) Worse for newspaper stocks almost every day. Down to $24.87 from $44.95.

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) Home builders. Very ugly. $18.13 down from 52-week high of $38.66.

Pulte Homes (PHM) More home building carnage. $23.71 down from $35.56.

Wamer Music Group (WMG) CD business is dying. Come back baby, rock and roll never forgets. Down to $14.31 from 52-week high of $30.59.

Sanofi Aventis (SNY) Competing insulin drug has good trials. Drops to $40.27 from 52-week high of $50.05.

Inphonic (INPC) Bad quarter. Bad downgrade. Drops to $5.07 from 52-week high of $14.49.

Cost Plus (CPWM) Slow housing hits home fashion retail. Drops to $7.56 from 52-week high of $14.69.

South Finl Group (TFSG) Victim of a fraudulent land sale scheme related to a North Carolina real estate development project. Drops to $22.23 from 52-week high of $27.49.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 3:33 pm in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , ,

Short Sellers Boost Bet Against Homebuilders (June 2007)

Stock Tickers: XHB, DHI, LEN, PHM, CTX, TOL, NVR, KBH, MDC, RYL, SPF, BZH, HOV

This can’t be a shock considering ‘how great’ the housing market is and how many new homes are selling in the US.  There was a boost to the short selling in US-based homebuilding stocks.  Oddly enough, the SPDR Hombuilder ETF (HXB) saw a fairly large drop, which means that traders are using this as a hedging instrument or they are deciding to go after the basket to to minimize headline risk in any one name.  We could have listed 1- more homebuilders, but we cut the list off at the $1 Billion market cap line.

Here are the changes in the number of shares in the Short Interest:

Stock    (Ticker)                    JUNE      MAY        Change
DR Horton (DHI)                30.14M    28.52M    +5.9%
Centex (CTX)                        17.2M    16.3M       +5.4%
Toll Brothers (TOL)            23.67M    22.75M    +4%
NVR Inc.(NVR)                      1.31M    961K        +40%
MDC Holdings (MDC)         7.19M    6.82M        +5.4%   
Ryland Group (RYL)            9.97M    9.43M        +5.6%
Standard Pacific (SPF)       16.92M   16.28M    +3.9%
Hovnanaian (HOV)              18.61M   17.52M    +6.2%
Lennar (LEN)                        15.52M   15.6M       -0.8%
Pulte Homs (PHM)               25.03M   25.13M    -0.4%
KB Home (KBH)                    17.64M   17.7M      -1.2%
Beazer Homes (BZH)           14.63M  15.96M    -8.3%

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 2:54 pm in Housing, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Selling Energy, Oil & Gas Stocks (June 2007)

Stock Tickers: VLO, XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, HAL, OIH, HES, PBR, MRO, BHI, RIG, BJS, WMB, GSF, BP, VLO, WFT, NOV, HES

Higher and higher oil prices got you down?  They definitely don’t do wonder for the people increasing their short selling bets against stocks across the various groups of the Oil & Gas sector.  Here is a list of many key (mostly US-based) stocks spread across the various segments inside the energy patch.  It’s amazing that short selling rises as commodity prices biased upward and oil close to $70.00 per barrel.

Increases in short interest:

Stock (Ticker)                                  JUNE    MAY            Change
Exxon Mobil (XOM)                       49.65M   46.6M         +6.55%
Chevron (CVX)                              31.17M   30.79M      +1.2% 
ConocoPhillips (COP)                21.38M    17.37M      +23%
Marathon Oil (MRO)                     11.65M    5.62M        +3.6%      
Baker Hughes (BHI)                    15.38M    13.44M     +14.4% 
Transocean (RIG)                        16.27M    14.7M        +10.6%    
BJ Services (BJS)                         21.57M    19.21M     +12.3%
‘PetroBras’ (PBR)                            4.84M      3.15M       +53%
Williams Companies (WMB)      20.25M     17.93M     +12.9%
Oil Service HOLDRs(OIH)           20.9M     19.0M         +10%
GloabalSantaFe (GSF)                 10.7M      9.24M        +15.8%

Decreases in short interest

Stock (Ticker)                                  JUNE         MAY        Change
BP plc (BP)                                     5.945M       6.61M        -10%
Valero (VLO)                                   29.06M      46.05M      -36.8%
Schlumberger (SLB)                     20.94M      31.28M      -30%
Halliburton (HAL)                           44.27M      47.32M      -6.4%
Weatherford (WFT)                        17.93M      19.22M      -6.7%
Nat’l Oilwell Varco (NOV)               7.59M        8.06M        -5.8%
Hess Corp. (HES)                             6.4M        6.42M        -0.4%

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 1:40 pm in Oil & Gas, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Sellers Up Bet Against Brokerage Firms (June 2007) (GS, MER, MS, LEH, BSC)

Stock Tickers: GS, MER, MS, LEH, BSC

The raw number of shares that are measured in the short interest in bulge bracket brokerage firm and investment banking stocks did increase, although if you look at the companies mentioned you’ll see that the picture was more of a mixed bag.  Here are the shares measured in the short interest for June and May:

Company (Ticker)            JUNE          MAY       Change
Goldman Sachs (GS)     8.47M         8.53M      -0.70%
Merrill Lynch (MER)         15.27M     14.41M      +5.95%
Morgan Stanley (MS)       11.16M     10.22M      +9.20%
Lehman (LEH)                 10.56M     10.67M      -1%
Bear Stearns (BSC)         3.60M         3.64M      -1%

Total                                   49.06M      47.47M      +3.34%

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 12:46 pm in Brokerage Firms, Short Interest, , , , ,

Short Sellers Attack Restructure & Re-Org Stocks (June 2007)

Stock Tickers: TYC, MS, F, CY, SPWR, TRB, KFT, MO, HB, ASD, EMC, DJ, AA, WY

It is always interesting to see how short sellers treat shares of stocks that are undergoing a spin-off, a restructuring, or an organizational change.  Frequently you see large changes upand down as shareholder initiatives such as a spin-off, a corporate break-up, a questionable acquisition breaking apart, or a recapitalization can affect the street perception.  These also often take months or longer to come to fruition.  These are not all of the restructurings and spin-offs in NYSE-listed stocks, but these are a sample of the more watched deals.

Those with increased short selling…..

Tyco International (TYC), as it gets closer to its near-forever break-up into 3 units next week.  Tyco short interest grew from 20.89 million in May to 21.81 million in June.  Short sellers must not be seeing value just like we don’t.

Morgan Stanley (MS) as it gets ready to dump the poorest image image credit card in the country, Discover Card.  Morgan Stanley saw a 9% gain from May’s 10.2 million shares in the short interest grow to 11.16 million shares.

Ford (F), which is likely selling two units of Rover and Jaguar and might sell its finance business.  Ford saw a huge jump in short selling from 208.8 million in May to 214.1 million in June.  Ford shares are actually up 50% from the 52-week lows. believe it or not.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) as some recent hope has come out for the company to unlock more value by unloading more of its holdings in SunPower Corp. (SPWR).  CY shares have seen an increased short selling from 13.89 million in May to 15.495 million in June, a gain of 10.3%.

Tribune (TRB) now that the Sam Zell privatization pilfering is closer.  The 6.1 million shares in May has grown to 6.88 million shares, a gain of more than 10% in short selling.

Kraft (KFT) and Altria (MO), now that the Kraft (KFT) spin-out has finally occurred and some more time has passed on the calendar.  MO saw a drop of 11% from 53.2 million shares down to 47.2 million shares, which could have been expected; and you saw the inverse move in KFT with may’s short interest of 32.14 million shares growing to 39.2 million shares in June.

Hillenbrand (HB) as it gets ready to split the medical products and beds from the casket unit.  Hillenbrand saw May’s short interest of 1.43 million shares grow 2% to 1.459 million shares in June.

The decliners….Not as active as the increases…..

American Standard (ASD), after its spin-off of WABCO. ASD saw a drop in its short short interest of 30% from 7.46 million shares down to 5.15 million shares in June.

EMC (EMC) as the company is closer to the spin-off date for VMWare, which is expected to be a hot IPO or spin-off issue.  EMC short interest was actually a decline of 6.5% from 38.93 million in May to 36.37 million in June.

Dow Jones (DJ) saw a drop in its shares in the short interest with May’s 5.78 million shares drop down to 4.94 million shares as financial betters didn’t want to increase their bets that the company would stay private.

Alcoa (AA), as prey or bait? Short sellers don’t want to find out.  May’s 16.8 million shares in the short interest fell to 14.68 million shares in June.

Weyerhaeuser (WY) saw its 9.16 million shares in its short interest drop to 7.76 million as investors are still thinking the value will unlock as a potential break-up, REIT-Conversion, or asset sales.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 12:23 pm in Shareholder Issues, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Selling: Warren Buffett Holdings (June 2007)

BRK/A, BNI, KO, PG, WMT, USG, AXP, WFC, MCO, JNJ, COP, UNP, USB, MTB, ASD, NSC, WLP, UNH, IR, HRB

It is always interesting to see how Wall Street bets with or against Warren Buffett’s stock holdings.  These are among the most recent holdings of the great Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A-NYSE) and you’ll be able to see how there was more of an increase in short selling in the Buffett holdings.  Keep in mind that by now many of these will no longer be current holdings because these public company holdings change from quarter to quarter, and for that matter there will be newer holdings that are not included in here.

Company        (TICKER)        JUNE     MAY    CHANGE
Burlington Northern (BNI)     6.24M    6.19M    +0.7%
Procter & Gamble (PG)         19.35M   14.2M    +36%   
American Express (AXP)       23.5M     21.6M    +8.9%
Wells Fargo (WFC)                 51.8M    35.9M    +44%
Moody’s (MCO)                          18M      17.5M    +3.3%
ConocoPhillips (COP)           21.38M  17.37M  +23%
Union Pacific (UNP)                4.5M       4.4M      +1.9%
Anheuser-Busch (BUD)         9.81M     6.79M    +44%
US Bancorp (USB)                  35.4M     25.2M    +40%
Wellpoint (WLP)                       5.62M     5.3M       +5.7%       
UnitedHealth (UNH)                9.7M      8.94M      +8.5%   
Ingersoll-Rand (IR)                 5.11M    3.31M       +54%
H&R Block (HRB)                    20.3M    23.3M       -12.7%
Coca-Cola (KO)                      20.19M   27.8M       -27%
Wal-Mart (WMT)                        37.1M    38.1M       -2.5%
USG (USG)                              14.97M   16.05M      -6.7%
SunTrust Banks (STI)             7.42M      7.94M       -6.5%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)    15.37M    16.1M       -4.8%
M&T Bank (MTB)                      1.69M      1.93M       -12.7%
American Standard (ASD)      5.15M     7.46M       -30%   
Norfolk Southern (NSC)          4.7M       5.47M       -14%

As a reminder, last night Jim Cramer reviewed some of the Buffett holdings as well with an opinion about piggybacking on each of these.  Here is the critique Cramer gave for stock tickers UNP, USB, MTB, ASD, NSC, WLP, UNH, IR, HRB  and here is the critique he gave for stock tickers BNI, KO, PG, WMT, USG, AXP, WFC, MCO, JNJ, COP.

 

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 9:12 am in Buffett, Conglomerates, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Inphonic (INPC): How To Screw Up A Good Thing

Inphonic (INPC) sells wireless services and equipment, including satellite TV. Revenue in the last quarter was up 17% to $101.4 million. But, the company sent $10 million more on general and administrative costs that it had in the same quarter a year ago and its operating loss balloned to $25.7 million. Much of the increased cost had to do with accounting and legal fees for financial restatements. The company has some litigation going on with shareholders over that.

Analysts expected better of the company and traders drove the shares down to $6.73. The company had a 52-week high of $14.49.

Then all hell broke loose as DeutscheBank downgraded the stock on poor subscriber growth and what they called a "limited path to positive cash flow".

In February of this year, Inphonic had a lot of true believers. They had traded the stock all the way up to $14.49. On disappointing execution, the shares have dropped to just above $5.

Promising business, poor execution.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 9:10 am in Uncategorized,

DJIA Components Short Interest Mixed (June 2007)

Stock Tickers: AA, AIG, AXP, BA, C, CAT, DD, DIS, GE, GM, HD, HON, HPQ, IBK, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MO, MRK, PFE, PG, T, UTX, VZ, WMT, XOM

As you will see, the June short interest in the 28 of the 30 NYSE listed DJIA components was a very mixed bag.  Sure there were big gains in some, but 16 of the 28 saw a gain in short interest.  That is essentially considered as non-directional for any analysis of a trend.  We saw chips and banking short interest rise, but nothing solid as an overall trend linking the DJIA components.

STOCK               Ticker    JUNE    MAY         CHANGE
Alcoa                      AA      14.6M    16.8M         -12%    
AIG                         AIG     25.09M  26.2M         -3.9%   
Amer. Express     AXP     23.5M    21.6M        +8.9%    
Boeing                   BA       8.3M        8.5M         -2.3%    
Citigroup                 C       31.2M     29.4M        +5.9%    
Caterpillar             CAT     9.35M    11.7M         -20%   
DuPont                    DD    18.77M    18.1M       +3.6%   
Disney                     DIS     50.7M    47.7M        +6.4% 
General Elec.         GE      59.9M    53.5M        +12%    
General Motors     GM      57.6M    52.2M        +10%   
Home Depot          HD      41.1M    45.6M         -9.8%   
Honeywell              HON    11.1M    13.9M        -20%
Hewlett-Packard   HPQ    27.46M  27.3M        +0.4% 
IBM                           IBM     48.6M     16.6M       +192%
J & J                         JNJ     15.37M    16.1M       -4.8%   
JPMorgan Chase  JPM     31.6M    28.2M         +12%   
Coca-Cola                KO     20.19M    27.8M        -27% 
McDonalds             MCD     23.9M     24.8M        -3.7%   
3M                            MMM     9.95M     9.5M          +4.5%    
Altria                          MO     47.2M     53.2M         -11%    
Merck                      MRK     22.8M     22.5M        +1.2%    
Pfizer                        PFE     54.4M    52.1M         +4.5%   
P & G                        PG     19.35M    14.2M        +36%   
AT&T                           T       44.1M      39.6M       +11.2% 
United Tech            UTX     7.87M      9.0M         -12.9%   
Verizon                       VZ     47.1M     43.3M        +8.6%   
Wal-Mart                WMT     37.1M     38.1M         -2.5% 
Exxon Mobil           XOM     49.6M      46.6M        +6.5%   

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 8:41 am in Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Interest Rose in Bank Stocks: June 2007 (JPM, BAC, USB, NCC, STT, C, WFC, BK, STI)

Stock Tickers: JPM, BAC, USB, NCC, STT, C, WFC, BK, STI

The large banking stocks saw a fairly large increase in short interest from May to June in 2007.  That is after a mixed April to May period.  With what happened in rates during the last month that would have probably been expected.  Here is the June 2007 short interest:

STOCK (Ticker)                    JUN07    MAY07   Change
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)     31.94M    28.24M    +12%   
US Bancorp (USB)               35.4M     25.23M     +40% 
National City (NCC)              33.7M    26.66M     +26%
State Street (STT)                 13.8M     12.44M     +10.9%   
Bank of America (BAC)        35.2M     28.72M     +22%   
Citigroup (C)                         31.26M    32.4M       +6%      
Wells Fargo (WFC)              51.8M      35.97M     +44%   
Bank of New York (BK)        7.01M      5.04M       +39%

lower short interest…..
SunTrust Banks (STI)            7.42M    7.94M        -6.5% 

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 8:15 am in Banking, Financial Stocks, Short Interest, , , , , , , , ,

Qualcomm (QCOM) Strikes Out

According to Broadcom (BRCM), rival Qualcomm’s (QCOM) to stay a ban of imports of some of its chipsets have been denied by the ITC. The body had ruled that some of the intellectual property in the chips violated Broadcom patents.

The announcement leaves several handset manufacturers like Motorola (MOT) in a difficult position because they planned to use the chips in several of their next-generation phones. Cell service provides including Verizon Wireless and Sprint (S) could also be hurt.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 7:51 am in Uncategorized, , , ,

NYSE June 2007 Short Interest: Semiconductor Stocks (NSM, SMH, AMD, MU, TXN)

Stock Tickers: AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH

The Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH) pretty much says it all, as the SMH short interest rose again in June as the ETF hit a new 52-week high.  Short interest rose from May’s 33.25 million shares up to 35.2 million shares in June; and that is after a rise from 23.76 million shares in April up to a 33.252 million shares in May.  Here are the following changes with the increases in short interest first (from May to June, 2007):

RISING SHORT INTEREST NAMES
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its short interest rise from 73.3 million shares to 73.79 million shares (14.1% of the float). Micron Technology (MU) saw its short interest rise quite a bit from 36.47 million shares up to 50.375 million shares (7.1% of the float).  National Semiconductor (NSM) saw its short interest skyrocket from 9.813 million shares to an unbelievable 52.9 million shares (broker hybrid security is probably cause).  This should be confirmed because that is almost hard to believe as it would be 17% of the float, but that is at multiple sources.  Cypress Semiconductor (CY) saw its short interest rise from 13.89 million shares to 15.495 million.  Infineon (IFX) saw its short interest rise from 2.688 million shares to 3.89 million. Analog Devices (ADI) saw its short interest rise from 6.127 million shares to 7.77 million shares.  Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) saw its short interest rise from 11.33 million shares to 13.73 million shares.

A FEW FALLING SHORT INTEREST NAMES
LSI Corp. (LSI) saw its short interest drop from 44.55 million shares to 43.77 million shares.  STMicroelectronics (STM) saw its short interest fall again from 5.946 million shares to 3.7 million.  Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its short interest drop from 32.41 million shares to 30.6 million.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 7:48 am in Semiconductor, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Stock News (June 22, 2007)

(ADM) ADM is entering the sugarcane ethanol business in Brazil.
(ALXN) Alexion Pharmaceuticals was granted marketing approval in Europe for its PNH treatment.
(AMN) Ameron announced dividend boost from $0.20 to $0.25e.
(BSC) Bear Stearns is planning a $3.2 Billion loan to try to rescue a distressed fund.
(BX) Blackstone IPO priced at $31.00.
(ETN) Eaton selling its mirror controls business for $111 million.
(GRRF) China Grentech will supply WiFi equipment for China Mobile’s Olympic wireless LAN.
(JBL) Jabil trading up 5% on higher guidance.
(JNY) Jones close to selling Barney’s for $825 million.
(KFT) Kraft has activist investor Nelson Peltz buy a 3% stake in the company.
(MIR) Mirant closed a $3.2 Billion sale of its Philippine unit to Tokyo Electric.
(NYX) NYSEEuronext also in talks with Bourse Italiana.
(SEIC) SEI Investments trades ex-split to reflect a 2-1 stock split.
(SIX) Six Flags had an accident yesterday resulting in a 13-year old girl having both of her feet severed off.
(VIP) VimpelCom issuing up to $577+ million in debt in Russia.
(ZAAP) ZAP is in a new development program for high-performance electric vehicle that is affordable to customers at $30,000 that can travel 100 miles per hour and hold a 100 mile range charge.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 7:25 am in Pre-Market Activity

Is The Media Trying To Kill the iPhone? (AAPL, T, RIMM, PALM)

Apple (AAPL) has no doubt been a boon for Apple shareholders.  All you have to do is go back to the start of the year when this was just a rumor and look at the January 3 price of $83.80.  Shares are up almost 50% now.

People have been critical of the touch screen and critical that more testing results have not been released.  There are also deemed a limited number of outside apps that can be bought for it on the launch, and of course there are all of the technophiles calling for consumers to wait for the second release when it is cheaper with more bells and whistles and fewer bugs that are to be anticipated.  The 100% dedication to AT&T (T-NYSE) wireless as the exclusive carrier for 5-years has also been under fire, as many will either choose not to switch carriers or won’t be able to switch carriers.

As far as the AAPL as a stock, history would tell you that there should be a ’sell the news’ reaction right before the actual launch date next Friday.  With the performance that could easily be expected.  But that is the trading mentality rather than the long-term mentality.  What is expected is that there will be more than 1 million buyers in a very short period of time.  Some think this could even reach 10 million units in the relatively near future, and there are too many estimates of varying degrees to comment for two and three years out.  This has a shot at ending up as a huge revenue source for the company over the coming years that has only started to be factored in to Wall Street research revenue models beyond 2008.

This is getting more coverage than almost any product launch in recent history.  Of late the coverage has seemed to be a bit more skeptical, but you always have to wonder if the media has a vested interest in being negative.  After all, AT&T is the exclusive wireless carrier and there are many other wireless carriers that spend ad monies all around.  This isn’t a belief of a conspiracy or anything like that, but it is hard to not notice how the coverage went from hope, to hype, to caution.  It is easy to find the super-positive media coverage too, so don’t assume this is a one-sided event.

Research-in-Motion (RIMM-NASDAQ) have already been juicing up its advertising as the iPhone alternative, and personally I have been more than happy with my Palm (PALM-NASDAQ) Treo.  But there are millions of enthusiasts and loyalists out there that are going to be gunning for the iPhone regardless of what the media says.  On Google News alone, it looks like there are more than 700 news stories for today that show up under an "iPhone" search.

Apple (AAPL) has seen its earnings estimates ratchet higher and higher over the last 90 days, and there is still more of a "buy rating" bias on Wall Street with some of the newer analyst raised target prices being shown as $150.00 and higher.  There is a reason Steve Jobs was named as OUR most entrenched corporate leader, and on a longer-term basis he’s managed to outperform the skeptics.  There’s no real reason to think this time will be much different.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 7:08 am in Consumer Electronics, Technology Companies, Telecom, Wireless, , , ,

ZAP Brings New Powerful Electric Car for $30,000 (ZAAP)

Zap_imageZAP (ZAAP-NASDAQ/OTC), the electric car maker, is launching a new development program with a completed design for a high-performance electric vehicle that is affordable for consumers.  The target price is $30,000.00 and the target speed is more than 100 miles per hour with a 100 mile range per charge.  ZAP claims that many of the technologies are specified for the car, but delivery is expected sooner than the ZAP-X electric car concept.  It will offer more details at the annual shjareholder meeting on July 29.

ZAP already has a small short range vehicle in production.  For $10,000.00 you can buy a ZAP XEBRA thatwill reach up to 40 miles per hour for short range travel inside cities.  It has mainly been targeted to city and governments, although some individuals (very few) have these in major cities.  ZAP sells the XEBRA through an authorized dealer network of sales and service centers. ZAP is developing a number of vehicles for its automotive business plan. Earlier this year, ZAP introduced a high-performance compact, or crossover, SUV concept called ZAP-X. ZAP also has ventures to build cars in China and Brazil.

ZAP has been a post-concept company that has so far seen limited success as a stock.  Yesterday’s closing price was $0.98, and the 52-week trading range was $0.61 to $1.80.  Total revenues for 2006 were only $10.83 million with an operating loss of $19.4 million and net loss recorded at $11.9 Million.  As of its last report on March 31 it only carried $2.56 million cash, with total assets listed as $10.995 million; total liabilities were carried as $7.546 million.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 6:36 am in Alternative Energy, Autos, Cult Stock,

Earlybird Analyst Calls (June 22, 2007)

AAP started as Outperform at Wachovia.
ADI cut to Underperform at Piper Jaffray.
ALB raised to Buy at B of A.
AZO started as Outperform at Wachovia.
BGFV cut to Neutral at UBS.
BWP started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
CNR cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
CKEC cut to Neutral at B of A.
CMG cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
CNK cut to Neutral at B of A.
COGN cut to Neutral at B of A.
DY started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
FCS cut to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
FE raised to Buy at B of A.
GHL raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
JBL raised to Outperform at RBC.
LLTC cut to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
MDU started as Buy at KeyBanc McDonald.
MEOH cut to Underperform at CIBC.
MGM raised to Outperform at CIBC; raised to Positive at Susquehanna.
NAVZ raised to Buy at UBS.
NOVA raised to Buy at Jefferies.
NUAN cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
ORLY started as Outperform at Wachovia.
PNR raised to Neutral at Baird.
PVTB cut to Neutral at RWBaird.
PWR started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
RGC cut to Neutral at B of A.
ROC raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ROC started as Outperform at Wachovia.
SBUX cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
VLTR raised to Outperform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007 

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 6:08 am in Analyst Calls

AMD’s (AMD) Rally Could Be Cut Short By Intel (INTC)

AMD (AMD) was up about 6% yesterday on an analyst upgrade from Stifel Nicolaus. The major reason for the upgrade was that "the worst was behind the company."

Maybe not. Later in the day AG Edwards released a report on Intel (INTC) The bank said that Intel’s new architecture made its chips inherently faster than AMD’s. The new AMD chip called "Barcelona" will be "brushed aside by manufacturing improvements by Intel."

Perhaps Edwards saw the earlier report and decided to rebut it. Or, their beliefs may be long-held. Either way, the AMD longer term stock price indicates that the recent movement may be a sucker rally. Over that last six months, AMD shares are down almost 30% while Intel’s have increased close to 20%.

Securities analysts fall prey to the same mistake that investors often make. A stock that is down a great deal, especially a stock in a large company that has done well in the fairly recent past, must be cheap at some point as its price falls.

Making that assumption with AMD would be a mistake.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 5:23 am in Uncategorized

Media Digest 6/22/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, the IPO for Blackstone priced at the high end of its range, raising $4.13 billion.

Reuters writes that GE (GE) and Pearson (PSO) have dropped their potential bid for Dow Jones (DJ).

Reuters reports that Pfizer (PFE) got permission to market its drug Lyrica for treating fibromyalgia.

The Wall Street Journal reports that BP (BP) is near a deal to turn over its ownership in a $20 billion Russian natural-gas project to state-controlled Gazprom.

The Wall Street Journal writes that ADM (ADM) is going to enter Brazil’s sugarcane-ethanol market, backing a rival to corn-based ethanol made by most U.S. companies.

The Wall Street Jounal also writes the NYSE Euronext (NYX) is making a bid for the Italian stock exchange which will compete with one from the London exchange.

The Wall Street Journal also reports that investor Nelson Peltz has taken a 3% piece of Kraft (KFT) and want the company to sell certain assets.

The New York Times reports that Ebay (EBAY) will re-enter the Chinese markter this summer.

FT reports that Bear Stearns (BSC) will call of its IPO of Everquest, a company associated with two hedge funds that have collapsed.

Barron’s reports that Jabil Circuit (JBL) reported earnings in line with estimates.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 3:16 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , ,

Asia Markets 6/22/2007

Markets in Asia fell.

The Nikkei was off .3% to 18,189. Hitachi (HIT) was down 1.6% to 900. NTT (NTT) was down 1.8% to 554000.

The Hang Seng fell .1% to 21,939. China Mobile (CHL) rose 2.1% to 84.1. China Petroleum (SNP) fell 1.5% to 9.04.

The Shanghai Composited dropped 3.3% to 4,091.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 2:50 am in Uncategorized