Daily Archives: July 12, 2007

What To Expect After Mackey’s Blunder (WFMI, OATS)

We have covered Mackey’s gaff a couple times already, but this situation is going to go far beyond mackey himself.  After Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI) CEO John Mackey was busted for using the Yahoo! Message Boards as a part time job from 1999 to 2006, there have been many such questions about the how this will affect message boards in general. This is going to affect POLICY rather than the mechanism, and it will probably affect Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI) and its leader John Mackey personally.  It would be easy to see Wild Oats (NASDAQ:OATS) file all sorts of lawsuits against Whole Foods, and it is hard to imagine that there is not a strong case here.

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The 52-Week Low Club

Westwood One (WON) CEO at radio company leaving. Down to $5.83 from 52-week high of $8.46.

American Home Mtg  (AHM) Dragged down more by real estate market. Down to $14.01 from 52-week high of $36.70.

Rait Financial Trust (RAS) Mortgage related REIT. Down to $22.11 from 52-week high of $38.25.

Shuffle Master (SHFL) Buying Progressive Gaming International Corp.’s worldwide table game division. Drops to $15.85 from 52-week high of $32.82.

Point Therapeutics (POTP) Biopharmaceutical company cutting 76% of employees. Down to six cents from 52-week high of $2.07.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Earnings Preview: General Electric Q2 2007 (GE)

Tomorrow morning, we should get the second quarter earnings results for General Electric (NYSE:GE).  The estimates are $0.52 EPS and $41.7 Billion according to First Call.  GE frequently gives guidance, so here is the guidance: Q3 EPS $0.55 and revenues $43+ Billion; Fiscal 2007 EPS $2.21 and revenues in the vicinity of $174 Billion.  Last quarter, CEO Jeff Immelt gave ex-items guidance of $0.52 to $0.54Q2 EPS (up 8% to 13% from Q2 2006) and $2.18 to $2.23 Fiscal 2007 EPS(up 10% to 12% from Fiscal 2006).

GE is the largest conglomerate with a $393+ Billion market cap, so it usually takes quite a large piece of news to move the stock widely in any single direction.  Many are mixed on the stock and some have called for far more aggressive action, including a break-up.  Personally, I am in the camp that General Electric should stay together and if they want to ‘unlock value’ that it should be done via the old tracking stocks and only partial divestments rather than a true break-up.  It took more than 100 years to put this together, and any short-term calls for any significant changes to the business model would probably be applicable only to the current market conditions. 

As it stands today in late-afternoon trading, it does not look like options traders feel GE is going to move more than 1.5% to 2% in either direction.  This is subjective because the stock is between option contract strike prices and options expire next Friday.  The stock chart is also a mixed picture as shares just hit new 5-year highs last month and failed to stay.  This chart may be resting more on the fundamentals, but with the resurgence of mega-caps and the market strength it just seems too hard to expect any real negative report.  We’ll know in the morning.  The average price target for analysts with Buy/Outperform ratings on Wall Street looks to be between $42.00 and $43.00.

Here is a link to the company conference call set for tomorrow morning and keep in mind that GE’s security analyst meeting regarding technology on July 23.  GE also issued its last earnings on a Friday the 13th, and shares closed up $0.20 on that day.  GE shares are up roughly 10% since its last quarterly earnings report.

Jon C. Ogg
July 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Foster Wheeler: Good News, Bad News (FWLT, DOW, KBR, QQQQ)

Heavy construction and engineering giant Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ:FWLT) got some bad news today: it was beaten out by KBR, Inc. (NYSE:KBR) for a project management and front-end engineering and design contract on Saudi Arabia’s massive Ras Tanura petrochemical plant construction project. Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) and Saudi Aramco have formed a joint venture to build the Ras Tanura plant and plan to offer 30% of the $20 billion project to additional partners.

But FWLT also got some good news today: its stock is being added to the Nasdaq 100 index (NASDAQ:QQQQ), effective today. The company was added to the Russell 1000 earlier this year. That’s good news for a company that paid millions of dollars in asbestos-related personal injury claims and was delisted at the NYSE in November 2003. Foster Wheeler was even forced to execute a 20-for-1 reverse stock split in November 2004. The company’s stock traded on the OTC Bulletin Board from November 2003, until June 2005, when it listed on NASDAQ. Zacks has projected annual growth for FWLT of 23% over the next five years, nearly 10 points better than the expected growth for the industry as a whole.

That kind of growth brings to mind a couple of interesting questions. How long before FWLT once again seeks a listing on the NYSE? Will the ‘FWLT tenure on the NASDAQ 100′ set a record for the shortest term ever?  So far shares are focusing on the index addition as shares are trading up more than 1% around $118.00.

Paul Ausick
July 12, 2007

Whole Foods, Mackey, & ‘rahodeb’: Full 7 Year History of Message Board Posts (WFMI, OATS)

We wanted to look farther into what John Mackey of Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI) really said on his Yahoo! message boards.  The truth is that when you look through the links here under the full mode there are some 1394 posts with the final post being August 12, 2006 titled "Congratulations to hubris and goodbye"…..

It appears Mr. Mackey spent more than quite a bit of time attacking and trying to rebuff any criticism posted in the Yahoo! message board universe.  It even looks like this was his part-time job.  If you are not familiar with message boards, you should know that many online posts are spiteful and attacking in nature and these are rarely moderated.

The reporting of this issue is new, but the actions of this are nearly one-year old and were all in the past.  That doesn’t make it right or justifiable in any sense of the imagination, but is at least a little perspective.  It would be hard to imagine that a board of directors would allow this to knowingly happen.  You can probably also bet that boards across the country are creating new policies banning future activities such as this if no such ban had been put in place.  We commented on this earlier today, and still feel there will be more policies banning such corporate officer activities in the future.

Mackey is almost certainly not alone in this sort of behavior, but when you go in and look at the length of the posts and the fact that there were 1394 posts from him you have to wonder how many more hours Mackey would have had to run the company if he wasn’t paying attention to hostile message boards.

Mackey has always stood out from the crowd as far as an unorthadox CEO, but now it might be fair to wonder if he changed his name from Wacky.  The stock had been down close to 3% earlier and shares are only down about 1.7% at $38.75 now.  Once again, the reporting of this is new but the actions are basically one-year old and much farther back than that.

Jon C. Ogg
July 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Eldorado Gold (EGO): Two Views: Big Difference

Eldorado Gold (EGO) is being pilloried because a court shut one of its mines in Turkey due to potential environmental problems. The company’s shares are down 25% today to $5.

But, before the news came out, TheStreet.com spoke well of the company:"The stock has recently broken out to the upside of a bullish consolidation pattern in the daily chart, and confirmed with volume." And "we would view any pullback toward that level as an opportunity to get long"

So, EGO is a "buy"?

Probably not.

Douglas A. McIntyre

What Is Whole Foods Going To Do About CEO Mackey Using Online Alias Postings? (WFMI, OATS)

Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI) is seeing shares indicated down about 1.5% after an interesting development where its CEO John Mackey used an online handle of "rahodeb" to attack rival Wild Oats (NASDAQ:OATS) from 1999 to 2006.  The online message board statements predicted the company would fall into bankruptcy and then be sold after its stock fell below $5 per share.

The company acknowledged that the postings by "rahodeb" were written by CEO John Mackey after the FTC made this known in a lawsuit trying to block Whole Foods from acquiring Wild Oats.  Supposedly the company defended Mackey’s postings, saying they were being taken out of context years later.

Mackey has also used the blog on his company’s Web site recently to challenge the FTC’s reasoning that it needed to stop Whole Foods from eliminating a competitor.  You should see how long his post his, because you’ll wonder how he had time during that post to run the company.

You can bet that Mackey is not alone in corporate America in using Blogs and ‘online aliases’ to either boost their views and attack competitors.  And you can bet that Mr. Mackey is going to have more explaining to do before this is anywhere from being water under the bridge.  The company noted that these were Mackey’s comments and not that of the company, but that would make one wonder if the company is hinting that it would make its founder stay at arm’s length or worse in the future.  We’ll see, but this one is probably going to be a future case study about what not to do.

This definitely falls under "WHAT WAS HE THINKING?"…….. 

Jon C. Ogg
July 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Is Microsoft (MSFT) Catching Yahoo! (YHOO) In Search

A post at TechCrunch uses numbers from Compete.com to show that Microsoft’s (MSFT) share of the search market is getting close to Yahoo!’s (YHOO). Almost no one uses Compete’s figures, preferring data from industry standards comScore and NetRatings.

The Compete numbers show Microsoft’s figure rising from 8.4% in May to 13.2% in June. Yahoo! was fairly flat at 20% and Google at 67%.

comScores numbers for May show Google’s (GOOG) share at 51%, Yahoo!’s at 26%, and Microsoft’s at 10%.

The Compete figures are probably useless.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Pre-Market Stock News (July 12, 2007)

(AA) Alcoa trading up 6% after Rio Tinto gave a higher rival bid over Alcoa’s buyout offer for Alcan.
(AAON) AAON announced a 3 for 2 stock split.
(AL) Alcan gets a rival $38.1 Billion bid from Rio Tinto, above the ALCOA bid; shares up 11%.
(AMGN) Amgen and Daiichi Sankyo announced a collaboration and license agreement for the development and commercialization of denosumab in Japan.
(ARIA) Ariad Pharm and Merck entered into a collaboration to jointly develop and commercialize AP23573 for use in cancer.
(DNA) Genentech $0.78 EPS ($0.70 after items) and revenues were $3.0 Billion versus $0.71 & $2.85 Billion estimates; sees Fiscal 2007 EPS $2.85 to $2.95 versus $2.91 estimates.
(EROC) Eagle Rock is making 3 acquisitions totaling $420 million; sees 48% increase in "distributable cash flow."
(FAST) Fastenal announced a 1 million share buyback plan.
(GE) General Electric and Abbott Labs terminate sale of Abbott’s lab and diagnostics unit.
(GGBM) Gigabeam has regained compliance standards for NASDAQ listing.
(GTXI) GTX’s Phase III development of Acapodene review by an independent Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended that GTX continue clinical development.
(HAL) Halliburton’s board of directors approved its increased $2 Billion share buyback plan.
(IMCL) Imclone and Bristol-Myers Squibb said Erbitux Phase III study in first-line treatment of advanced lung cancer did not meet its primary endpoint of progression-free survival but secondary endpoints were statistically significant and favored the ERBITUX- containing arm.
(MAR) Marriott $0.57 EPS vs $0.53e; but Q3 looks under estimates.
(METH) Methode Electronics $0.33 EPS vs $0.17e; unsure if comparable as guidance range is in-line.
(MFLX) Multi-Fineline saw an unexpected sequential decline in Q3 revenue and now expects a loss.
(MOT) Motorola lowered guidance and sees no more profit from mobile division in 2007.
(NEM) Newmont Mining priced a $1 Billion convertible note offering.
(SPNC) Spectranetics received FDA approval for expanded labeling for TURBO elite to market its TURBO elite laser catheters to treat stenoses and occlusions within leg arteries.
(WMT) Wal-Mart June s-s-s +2.4% vs. 0.8% estimate; sees 1% to 2% July s-s-s growth; sees fiscal 2008 EPS within previous $0.75 to $0.79 guidance; shares indicated up 0.6%.
(WFMI) Whole Foods CEO Mackey has been touting his stock and attacking rival Wild oats for years on Yahoo! message boards.

Jon C. Ogg
July 12, 2007

Wal-Mart (WMT) Gets A Lift, Dell (DELL) As Well

Wal-Marts’ (WMT) same-store sales were up more than most analysts thought they would be, rising 2.9% in the four weeks ending July 7.

Grocery sales did well, but electronics did better. "Sales of flat panel televisions, MP3 players, video game hardware and accessories, laptops and desktop computers had significant year-over-year gains. Computer sales were fueled by the introduction of select Dell computers now sold at Wal-Mart stores and Sam’s Clubs throughout the United States."

Particularly good news for Dell.

Wal-Mart’s stock is up 1.3% in the pre-market. Dell’s shares are rising .35%.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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Earlybird Analyst Calls (July 12, 2007)

AZO cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
BHE started as Buy at B of A.
CELG started as Buy at Jefferies.
CLS  started as neutral at B of A.
CMCO cut to Outperform at RBC.
CTV raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
DFS started as Overweight at Lehman.
DLB started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
DNDN cut to Underperform at JMP Securities.
EMS cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
ENDP cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
EXR started as Outperform at Baird.
FLEX started as Buy at B of A.
GNA cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
INFI started as Buy at Jefferies.
JBL cut to Neutral at B of A.
KIM raised to Outperform at FBR.
LMT raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
NOC cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
PLXS started as Neutral at B of A.
PSA started as Neutral at Baird.
RDS/A cut to Neutral at UBS.
RF started as Neutral at UBS.
RTN raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SAF cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
SANM started as neutral at B of A.
SLR started as neutral at B of A.
TRAD started as Outperform at FBR.
UFS cut to Underperform at CIBC.
YSI started as Neutral at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
July 12, 2007

Will Sony (SNE) Cut PS3 Price Again?

A senior Japanese video game executive is telling Reuters that Sony’s (SNE) recent $100 price cut on the PS3 game platform will not be the last. Perhaps the consumer electronics giant will end up giving the product for free and hope to make up the difference on volume.

"The number of PS2 users is still growing and a shift to the PS3 is on the back burner," Capcom Chief Financial Officer Kazuhiko Abe told Reuters. "But, the price has been cut once and it is likely to be cut again towards the end of the year. I expect the (PS3’s) installed base to grow gradually,"  he added.

With the retail unit price down to $499, analysts speculate on whether Sony even makes money on the product. Another price cut may drive up demand, but it could cause the company to miss its earnings forecasts for its game unit.

To some extent, it is a no win situation.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 7/12/2007

Markets in Europe were modestly higher at 6.50 AM New York time.

The FTSE was up .2% to 6,629. BHP Billiton (BHP) was up 1.1% to 1511. Vodafone (VOD) was up .6% to 162.

The DAXX rose .3% to 7,919. Deutsche Telekom (DT) was down .4% to 13.4. Siemens (SI) was up 1.1% to 108.05.

The CAC 40 was up .3% to 6,020. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) fell 1.3% to 10.15. France Telecom (FTE) rose .5% to 20.42.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

The UAW Taunts Detroit

The idea that the UAW was going to give up the ghost and concede pension and benefits issues to the Big Three to help them with their turnarounds probably had a short shelf life.

GM (GM) and Ford (F) have been getting upgrades left and right on Wall St. based on the assumption that the big union would cooperate on cutting costs further as the US car industry continues to lose share at home to the Japanese. And, the UAW has been talking to Chrysler’s potential owner, hedge fund Cerberus, about helping its on health benefit costs.

Maybe UAW chief Ron Gettelfinger got tired of all the press about how his union would bail out the car companies and help their shareholders. That would come, of course, at the expense of jobs and benefits that labor at the companies has been used to having for decades. In the meantime, they have watched GM’s share price double since late 2006.

Gettelfinger recently told Reuters that the union was not heading into the upcoming labor negotiations with the U.S. automakers in a "concessionary mode."

With pressure from Washington to cut emissions and improve fuel-efficiency, a costly undertaking, and labor costs well above Japanese rivals, the Big Three are still in a pinch. They have not solved the one problem that might allow them to form a partnership with labor.

But, they would have to start selling more cars.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The Frogs Buy WiMax

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) has won the contract to build out a WiMax network in France. According to MarketWatch: "Alcatel-Lucent will equip the planned sites in the Ile de France and Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur regions by mid 2009."

The win is nice for Alcatel, but a big secondary winner is Sprint (S). The company is betting a great deal of its future on the WiMax network it plans to have up and running in the US by the end of 2008. The network will cost $3 billion, and is being supported by WiMax champions Intel (INTC) and Motorola (MOT) who have also put money into WiMax IPO Clearwire (CLWR).

The Sprint plan to cover an area that will reach 100 million people in the US has a number of skeptics. WiMax is untried across such a large region. It has been built out in several big cities including Seoul, but whether it can be knitted together to cover a regional that would be a large portion of the US is still open to question.

But, if the French can do it, why can’t Sprint?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Another Reason Wall St. Hates GE (GE)

GE’s (GE) share price has had a bit of a run over the last three months. Until that point, the stock was flat with where it traded in July 2005. Now, two years later, the shares are up 10%. Over that period, the S&P is up 25% and rival conglomerate Siemens (SI) stock is up over 80%.

GE likes to talk about how its will make money on the global "greening" of industry. It will provide the low emission products and the new technology to help Al Gore. And, the company speaks endlessly about its opportunities in China and India.

But, when the rubber meets the road, GE has a problem.

Yesterday, GE (GE) and Abbott (ABT) said that they could not come to terms on their announced deal for GE to buy the medical company’s diagnostic units for just over $8 billion. At the time, the head of Abbott said: “As part of GE, Abbott’s core diagnostics and point-of-care businesses will be powerfully positioned to sustain and extend their market success.” The companies just had to finish up and close.

The companies now say they cannot come to terms on the sale. Big announcement. No execution. In fairness to GE, The Wall Street Journal writes: "GE may have been nervous about taking on regulatory issues; its surgery-equipment business has been under a consent decree since January." Maybe the conglomerate should have done more due diligence before announcing its plan

But, the day before, GE said it might have to take a charge of about $200 million for write-offs of its sub-prime mortage porfolio. In Q1, the company took a write-off of $500 million and gave the impression that the problem was behind it.

GE’s troubles with investors are based to a large extent on walking around the world talking about the big things the company will do in five or ten years. Back at the headquarters, not so little things keep going wrong.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com.

Sony Ericsson Shows Motorola (MOT) How It’s Done

While Motorola (MOT) was burning to the ground selling only 36 million handsets last quarter, Sony Ericsson’s profits rose 54% to $303 million on revenue of $4.3 billion, up 37%. Handset shipments rose 59% to 25 million.

Sony Ericsson (a joint venture between ERIC and SNE) now has 9% of the global handset market.

Over at Motorola, the company said it had sold only 35 million phones, down from almost 52 million in the same quarter a year ago. The company expects to report sales for the quarter ended June 30 were between $8.6 billion and $8.7 billion; it had forecast about $9.4 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Motorola said that sales in Asia and Europe had been especially bad.

Sony Ericsson did exactly what Motorola did not do. Instead of betting sales on one hot line, the company marketed a number of smart phones designed to reach different parts of the high-end market. In Q2, it launched phones to reach the low and mid portions of the market like China, where handset price is a key to sales.

Motorola bet on the RAZR which won the battle for a couple of quarters, but lost the war.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com.

The World’s Top Ten Web Properties, May 2007

comScore is out with it Top Ten Web Properties for May 2007.

The leaders was Google (GOOG) with 528 million unique visitors during the month, almost 70% of all global web users. Microsoft (MSFT) sites were second with 520 million. Yahoo! (YHOO) was third with 468 million followed by Time Warner (TWX) at 257 million, eBay (EBAY) at 248 million, Wikipedia at 208 million, Fox (NWS) at 147 million, Amazon (AMZN) at 137 million, Cnet (CNET) at 120 million, and Apple (AAPL) at 115 million.

Apple had the largest increase over the previous month, rising 5%.

A look at the list leaves the impression that of all the sites, Cnet has had the most trouble getting revenue from its web traffic.

Among the fastest growing sites, Facebook was a major winner, up 27% from April to May to 47 million unique visitors worldwide.

June Traffic For Major Business Websites

Below are the June stats for the top 20 financial websites

Top 20 Online Financial News and Information Destinations

 
Brand or Channel                   Unique Audience (000)                Time Per Person (hh:mm:ss)
Yahoo! Finance  (YHOO)         14,878                                        0:24:11
MSN Money  (MSFT)                 11,190                                        0:17:39
AOL Money & Finance (TWX)     9,827                                       0:16:08
Wall Street Journal  (DJ)           7,852                                        0:20:12
Forbes.com                            7,813                                         0:05:54
Reuters (RTRSY)                    6,608                                         0:05:41
CNNMoney                             6,263                                         0:15:49
FreeCreditReport.com             3,276                                          0:09:15
Bankrate.com                         2,928                                          0:05:31
TheStreet.com (TSCM)            2,921                                          0:06:59
American City Business          2,884                                          0:04:01
Motley Fool                            2,871                                          0:10:43
BusinessWeek (MHP)            2,429                                          0:05:06
Bloomberg.com                       2,146                                          0:04:21
About.com Business (NYT)      1,553                                          0:02:16
Smartmoney                           1,487                                          0:11:19
CNBC.com  (GE)                     1,469                                         0:06:28
FT.com (PSO)                         1,239                                         0:02:17
USATODAY Money (GCI)          1,196                                        0:03:54
Google Finance  (GOOG)           1,102                                        0:07:31

Nielsen NetRatings

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 7/12/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, Rio Tinto (RTP) has launched a $38.1 billion takeover bid for Alcan (AL).

Reuters writes that customers at JP Morgan have been confused by opposite calls on future plans for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone.

Reuters reports that Motorola (MOT) has warned of a Q2 loss as handset sales fell.

Reuters also writes that profits at handset maker Sony Ericsson rose 55%, somewhat short of expectations.

Reuters writes that GE (GE) and Abbot (ABT) terminated talks for the conglomerate to buy Abbot’s diagnostics business because the companies could not agree on terms.

Reuters also reports that Genentech’s (DNA) profits rose sharply on increase in sales of some of its flagship drugs.

The Wall Street Journal reports that hedge fund Cerberus will be able to raise the money it needs to buy Chrysler despite increasing trouble finding money for such deals.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the EU may be considering plans to increase telecom competition in Europe by breaking up companies including Deutesche Telekom (DT) and France Telecom (FTE).

The Wall Street Journal also reports that Best Buy (BBY) will sharply increase the number of mobile handsets that its sells to increase its small market share in the business.

The New York Times writes that Rupert Murdoch is troubled by the pace of his talks to buy Dow Jones (DJ).

The New York Times writes that it Nintendo Wii will remain in short supply.

The FT writes that one of the largest owners of Advance Medical Supplies said that its bid to buy Bausch& Lomb is too risky.

Douglas A. McIntyre