Daily Archives: April 10, 2008

Radio One & Ethnic Social Networking Acquisition (ROIAK, ROIA)

After the close this evening, ethnic media player Radio One, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROIAK) (NASDAQ: ROIA) announced it was acquiring a social networking company called Community Connect for around $38 million.  Interestingly enough Radio One has a mere market cap of $143 million.

The good news is that does diversify Radio One away from radio, as the company has been trying to do.  The exact terms were not disclosed.  Back in the day, this would have been a huge gain.  Hopefully Radio One can monetize the social networking theme better than others have. 

Community Connect Inc. is an online community destinations for US ethnic groups with the three largest niche-targeted communities: AsianAvenue.com, BlackPlanet.com and MiGente.com.  This notes that it has some 20 million members.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about special financings, secondary offerings, IPO’s, M&A, and more previews for other special situations in various stages.

Radio One’s trading range for the more active ROIAK shares over the last 52-week sis $0.99 to $7.73.  Shares closed at $1.50 today.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Genentech Shares Hang In Despite Soft Key Drug Sales (DNA)

Shares of Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) are trading slightly lower after reporting a gain in earnings.  The biotech giant posted $0.74 net EPS, but non-GAAP EPS excluding special items was $0.84 EPS on revenues of $3.06 Billion.  First Call showed estimates at $0.82 EPS on $3.11 Billion in revenues, which is a beat on earnings but slightly light on revenues.

CNBC gave some individual figures for expectations on its individual drugs, and again these were light of many estimates on each target out there:

  • Avastin sales were $600 million in the quarter, compared with an expected $629 million;
  • Rituxan sales reached $605 million, under estimates of $607 million;
  • Herceptin salers were $339 million, under estimates of $343 million;
  • Lucentis sales reached $198 million, under forecasts of $202 million.

Shares closed up 0.3% at $78.00 in regular trading today, and shares are actually up marginally by 0.4% in after-hours.  That is better than the initial drop of 1% in after-hours trading after the news was out.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (TWB)(FMD)(CHS)(PTRY)(GSAT)(VMED)

Tween Brands (TWB) Cuts Q1 outlooks. Sells down to $17.85 from 52-week high of $49.

First Marblehead  (FMD) Investment deal from Goldman Sachs looks weak. Down to $3.12 from 52-week high of $45.70.

Chico’s FAS (CHS) Weak same-store sales. Falls to $5.42 from 52-week high of $27.94.

Pantry (PTRY) Brokerage downgrade. Sells off to $11.20 from 52-week high of $48.96.

Globalstar (GSAT) Raising money through note offering. Down to $3.98 from 52-week high of $12.35.

Virgin Media (VMED) Large bond offering and downgrade. Slips to $12.37 from 52-week high of $30.

Douglas A. McIntyre

As Institutions Sell Millennium On Buyout News, Which Biotech Stocks Will See Inflows? (ALXN, CEPH, CBST, IMCL, ONXX, SEPR, UTHR)

The $8.8 Billion cash buyout of Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MLNM) has created a situation worth monitoring today.  It isn’t just that this buyout could create a cascade of other biotech deals.  The easier call is actually in just figuring out which emerging drug and biotech stocks will actually see new biotech investor inflows of cash from institutions that have to invest in these companies. More than 94% of MLNM was also listed as "held by institutions" according to data from Capital IQ.

Institutions have been selling the stock today from $24.30 to $24.50 rather than waiting for the $25.00 and this had traded more than 180 million shares late in the day (more than $4.3 Billion worth of stock).  As the institutions take this money out, that theoretically ends up in other similar criteria companies.  Of course this is only a very partial list, and we wouldn’t want to believe that those funds will only go into ‘identical criteria" emerging pharma and biotech stocks in the U.S. alone.  But here is a partial list of stocks that have somewhat similar characteristics that could be some of the beneficiaries in this scenario:

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) with a $2.5 Billion market cap is now in its second transitionary year where revenues went from partnership and interest revenues into product revenues as analysts expect more than $213 million in 2008 revenues and more than $360 million for 2009.  Currently markets Soliris for blood disorders.

Cephalon, Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH) has a $4.4 Billion market cap and established revenues of $1.77 Billion last year.  Analysts expect revenues to be $1.88 Billion this year and more than $2.1 Billion next year.  It already has drugs in place or in development for central nervous system disorders, pain, oncology, and addiction.

Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST) may be a tad small with a $1.1 Billion market cap and with fresh contamination problems, but its name wasn’t left off.  2007 saw $294+ million in revenues, and analysts are looking for revenues of $391 million this year and $479 million next year.  Company’s Cubicin is on market as the first antibiotic in a new class of anti-infectives called lipopeptides for strep, staph, and other infections.

Imclone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) would have matched with a $3.8 Billion market cap and Erbitux as a current cancer drug, although this has been between $30 and $45.00 per share since its huge drop in 2004 and activists haven’t been able to make it budge.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ONXX) has a $1.9 Billion market cap and it has also transitioned to a revenue generator with analysts expecting revenues of $80 million this year and $161 million next year.  Nexavar is its kidney cancer and tumor drug, plus other partner studies in place.

Sepracor Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPR) has a $2.4 Billion market cap and is also in the revenue generation stage, although it has been a painful stock for many investors over the last 12 to 18 months.  Revenues are already established and analysts expect revenues to be $1.35 Billion this year and $1.53 Billion next year.  LUNESTA is major product, has key partners in place. 

United Therapeutics Corp. (NASDAQ: UTHR) has a market cap of $1.9 Billion and generated almost $211 million in 2007 revenues.  Analysts expect revenues to hit $261+ million this year and $346+ million next year.  Drugs treat cardiovascular, cancer, and infectious diseases.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about special financings, secondary offerings, IPO’s, M&A, and more previews for other special situations in various stages.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Markets Await GE Earnings For Direction (GE)

On Friday morning, we’ll see earnings out of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).  The largest conglomerate’s estimates from First Call are $0.51 EPS on more than $43.6 Billion in revenues.   GE does give guidance for one quarter and even for a year, so the estimates for Q2 are $0.58 EPS on $47.68 Billion revenues and fiscal 2008 estimates are $2.43 EPS on just over $192 Billion.

One issue we’d note is the recent insider buying seen from CEO Jeff Immelt.  The company also just last gave its annual shareholder address just under one month ago, and the company noted that GE should hit its annual targets in 2008 with 10% revenue growth to $195 Billion on EPS growth of 10% and an average return on capital should be near GE’s target of 20%.

Analysts have an average target price of roughly $42.00.  based on today’s options pricing, it appears that options traders are expecting a move in either direction of less than $0.80 in either direction.  The 3-closest options contracts have an open interest in the April Call options of more than 84,000 contracts and the 3-closest put options have an open interest of only around 36,000 contracts.  GE’s chart is sort of in the middle of a key area right now.  Shares are trading north of the $34.98 level of its 50-day moving average, and are trading under the 200-day moving average of $37.19.

In this climate, it probably isn’t fair for Wall Street to demand "raised guidance" out of a conglomerate.  As long as there are no major changes to prior guidance, shares should hang in there just fine.  If there have been any further erosions in the last month that Wall Street hasn’t seen elsewhere, that wouldn’t weigh too well against that 15% gain GE shares have seen from the lows in March.

As goes GE, so goes the economy.  That being said, we’d direct you to the analysis of the Business Roundtable’s  latest results.  GE and Jeff Immelt are members of this group.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Motorola (MOT): New Chairman On Board For 52-Week Low

David Dorman, the former captain and chief of AT&T (T), has come to Motorola (MOT) as Chairman. He was greeted with the handset, etc. company’s stock hitting a 52–week low at $8.97. The 52-week high is $19.68. Dorman’s first job will be to keep sharp objects away from big MOT shareholder Carl Icahn.

The market is already well aware of the problems at Motorola’s handset business. Its global market share has dropped from 22% just over two years ago to about 13% now. Nokia (NOK) and Samsung have better share and Sony Ericsson is gaining.

Last year, Motorola’s handset division lost over $1 billion on revenue of $19 billion. Unit sales may drop below 30 million for Q1, much lower than sales were running last year. The loss may balloon, making the operation worth very, very little.

It has begun to dawn on investors that Motorola’s home and mobility unit, which drove much of last year’s operating income, could have a bad year in 2008. Its products, including set-top boxes, may see slowing sales in a down economy.

Motorola could end up hitting on no cylinders this year. No way to welcome the new Chairman.

Douglas A. McIntyre

US CEO’s See Business Hanging Tough.. Mostly

The report from Business Roundtable’s first quarter "2008 CEO Economic Outlook Survey" has been released today.  This was completed between March 10th and March 27th by 100 of the Roundtable’s 160 member CEOs.  We wanted to review this data to compare some of our own ideas for the current state of the economy and trends.

CEO’s of America’s top companies overall see flat expectations for sales, cap-ex, and employment over the next six months.  Of course the strong demand from overseas markets is expected to give some relief from the U.S. downturn.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index reading was actually unchanged at 79.5 in Q1 2008 compared to Q4 2007.  That doesn’t exactly coincide with the March FOMC Minutes we outlined from this week, but it is another viewpoint.  There we noted a "recession without a recession mention." 

Read More »

Nasdaq Short Interest, Level 3 (LVLT) And Sirius (SIRI) Hit By Hammer Of Thor

Most companies on Nasdaq did fairly well with the shorts in the period which ended on March 31 compared to March 14. The two tremendous exceptions were Level 3 (LVLT) where short interest moved up 20.3 million shares to 243.9 million, and Sirius (SIRI) were share sold short jumped 40.4 million to 137.8 million

In a tough stock market and credit environment, it is not hard to see why investors would place bets against both companies. Each stock trades near its 52-week low. Level 3 recently pushed out its president. Although it is in an attractive business, bandwidth infrastructure, it is a patch-work of M&A work with a large amount of debt and almost no cash-flow. In other words, a liquidation candidate in a deep recession.

Sirius is also hurt by a high debt-load, over $1.2 billion, and negative operating income. If the company’s merger with XM Satellite (XMSR) does not go through, it may not be able to survive as a standalone company either.

As a tip of the cap to the troubled airline industry, shares short in JetBlue (JBLU) moved up 7.1 million to 44.1 million.

For the majority of other big Nasdaq stocks, the news was better. Shares short in E*Trade (ETFC) dropped 14.1 million to 90.3 million, a signal that investors think the company’s discount broker operation can do well despite the firm’s mortgage balance sheet problems.

Shares short in Intel (INTC) dropped 12 million to 63.2 million. Short interest in Yahoo! (YHOO) dropped 8.5 million to 41.3 million. Microsoft’s (MSFT) short interest fell 4.7 million to 118.4 million. At Dell (DELL) short interest fell 3.7 million to 41.8 million. And at Cisco (CSCO) short interest was off 3.4 million to 69.7 million.

Investor willingness to take a stand against tech stocks is beginning to shrink.

Takeover target Take-Two (TTWO) had a dropped off in shares short of 5.5 million to 11.6 million. Some investors see the price offered by Electronic Arts (ERTS) going higher

Douglas A. McIntyre

Post-Bankruptcy, Federal Mogul Heads For NASDAQ (FEMO, FDML)

Federal-Mogul Corporation (OTCBB: FEMO) has recently exited from bankruptcy, and has traded OTC on the Bulletin Board since.  Today, the company has announced that it will leave the OTC market and head over to the NASDAQ Global Market on April 23, 2008.  Its new proposed stock ticker symbol will be "FDML."

Federal-Mogul also recently announced that it will report its first quarter 2008 results on April 22, 2008.

Since emerging from bankruptcy, this has traded in a range from 418.00 to $27.00, and shares closed yesterday at $19.40.  Because of acquisitions made, this company ended up with something to the tune of more than 350,000 asbestos claims.  As a reminder, Carl Icahn owns (as of last look) most of the post-bankruptcy company because of his funding that helped pay asbestos claims.

The company manufactures and distributes parts, components, and systems in the automotive, small engine, heavy-duty, marine, railroad, aerospace, and industrial markets.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about reorganizations, special financings, secondary offerings, IPO’s, M&A, and more previews for other special situations in various stages.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Becoming Part of Takeda in Japan (MLNM)

Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MLNM) is being acquired.  Takeda Pharmaceuticals in Japan is paying some $8.8 Billion to acquire the biotech, which had a market cap of $5.3 Billion as of yesterday.

The cash buyout will come at $25.00 per share, roughly a 50% premium to Wednesday’s $16.35 close.  Its 52-week trading range was $9.49 to $17.19.  This is also more than a 25% premium to any prices this one has seen over the last 5-years.

This acquisition will help Takeda go from heart and diabetes into more of a cancer treatment, which will further diversify its operations.  Analysts expect Millennium to post $almost $570 million in revenues this year and $673 million in revenues next year.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about special financings, secondary offerings, IPO’s, M&A, and more previews for other special situations in various stages.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Chico’s FAS, Same Store Sales Still In Tank (CHS)

Many have been hoping that the bloodletting in the aisles of Chico’s FAS inc. (NYSE: CHS) is coming to an end.  If that is the case, it isn’t evident in the numbers yet. 

The womens retail and apparel chain posted a decrease in same store sales at -20.7% for the five-week period ended April 5, 2008.  It claims that without the effect of Easter this season, same store sales would have been down in the 18% to 19% range.  March total sales results for the five-week period ended April 5, 2008, decreased 15.2% to $162.1 million from $191.2 million.

Chico’s closed at $6.40 yesterday.  Its 52-week trading range is $6.40 to $27.94.  Shares are indicated down close to 3% at $6.21 in pre-market trading.  It appears another 52-week low is heading its way.

Chico’s growth days are done.  For it to recover it has to show some stability throughout its chain, because it can’t just keep opening new stores in saturated areas.  The Company has 608 Chico’s front-line stores, 38 Chico’s outlet stores; 314 White House | Black Market front-line stores and has19 White House | Black Market outlet stores; 70 Soma Intimates front-line stores and 1 Soma Intimates outlet store.

Who know for sure, but maybe it would even consider breaking up its brands.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

World Awash In Cash With Nowhere To Go

There is plenty of cash available to be invested in the markets and financial institutions. It is simply too frightened to come out and play.

According to Reuters "A steady move into cash is also seen in Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of fund managers. Some 51 percent were overweight in cash in March, compared with 48 percent in February and 43 percent in January."

One by-product of that is money flowing into 10-year Treasuries should push rates down there, making them less attractive. But, there is so much fear about the future of large financial companies and equities that the capital is unlikely to move from government paper back into the markets.

It could, however, go into commodities like oil and grains. That way it can drive prices up further, fuel inflation, and make the ultimate value of the cash reserves fall.

Why not?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Goldman Sachs Changes Oil Services Ratings (HAL, WFT, SII, SLB, BHI)

Goldman Sachs has made a change in its oil services sector expectation this morning: 

It has raised Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) to Buy from Neutral and has raised 2008 EPS estimates by about 2.5% and raised 2009 EPS estimates by almost 2%.  This has been some time now, but Halliburton was Jim Cramer’s #3 Value Pick for 2007.

Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, and Weatherford’s EPS estimates for 2008 and 2009 have been lowered slightly.

Estimates were also raised for Smith (NYSE: SII), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI).

Shares of Halliburton are indicated up over 1.5% at $42.85 in pre-market trading.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Old Navy Stinks Gap Same-Store Sales (GPS)

Just when it looked like Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) was starting to bottom out, it appears that was only a resting point.  Thing go from bad to worse.  Gap Inc. March Comparable same store sales came in at -18% with a total company store sales down 12%.  We were only looking for -7.7% to -8%.

Old Navy, which we have referred to as one of the lamest brands in the country, posted same store sales of -27%.  We have taken some heat for saying this dog of a chain should be spun out of the company.  No one would likely buy it, so that’s the only hope here.  There is a reason we said this may be one of the larger US brands that disappears.

Its core Gap Stores in North America showed a -14% drop in same store sales, while Banana Republic showed comparable store sales of -8%.

The company has somehow "reiterated" that it expects diluted earnings per share of $1.20 to $1.27 for fiscal year 2008 (Jan-09), which we find surprising given the drag this morning.  First Call has estimates at $1.26 EPS.  With a major drop like this, that may be very Panglossian of the company.

Gap Inc. shares are down 4%at $18.12 in pre-market trading.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADCT, ABC, CAH, MCK, CRUS, LNG, HAIN, ISRG, NFS, PTR, VMED, WLK)

These are the top individual analyst calls we are focusing on this Thursday morning in pre-market trading:

  • ADC Telecom (NASDAQ: ADCT) raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC), Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), and McKesson (NYSE: MCK) were all downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ: CRUS) Cut to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) cut to Equalweight from Overweight at Lehman.
  • Hain Celestial (NASDAQ: HAIN) Cut to Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) started as Buy at Lazard; started as Market Outperform at JMP Securities.
  • Nationwide Financial (NYSE: NFS) Raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) cut to Sell at Citigroup.
  • Virgin Media (NASDAQ: VMED) cut to Neutral at Jefferies,
  • Westlake Chemical (NYSE: WLK) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Jon C. Ogg
April 10, 2008

Watch For That Apple (AAPL) 3G iPhone In June

Since everyone else has a date for the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone launch, why not offer another?

According to intoMobile, the faster and thinner versions of the iPhone will come out in June at the Apple WWDC, two months from now. The website says that Apple has already ordered 10 million of the units from Taiwan-based Hon Hai

The sooner the better, Apple’s iPhone running on the AT&T (NYSE: T) 2.5G network is considered too slow for some. A 3G product will bring those buyers from the sidelines.

In addition, Samsung and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) have come out with 3G products aimed straight at the iPhone market. Smartphones have higher profit margins than most of the handsets these companies sell.

With Blackberry sales up sharply in the last quarter, RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) could also hurt iPhone share.

The Apple product needs an upgrade.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Wal-Mart (WMT) Beats The Street

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) beat Wall St. expectations for same-store sales raising optimism that the world’s largest retailer is turning around and may post strong earnings for the quarter and the year.

March same-store sales in the US rose 1.1%. Global revenue was up almost 8% to $36.97 billion. International revenue rose almost 19% to $9.47 billion.

Wal-Mart raised guidance. "Because of the Easter calendar change and its potential positive impact on the April sales period, we expect comparable store sales without fuel for the April four-week period in the United States to be between one and three percent," said Tom Schoewe, executive vice president and chief financial officer. "This guidance is slightly higher than our comparable sales guidance of the previous two months, which has been flat to two percent.

Who says that people are not looking for value pricing when the economy is doing badly.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cerberus Has $7 Billion To Buy Bank Assets

Despite the beating it has taken in Chrysler, private equity fund Cerberus has about $7 billion on the sidelines to put into bank assets, many of which are going for a fraction of their face value.

One expert commented in The New York Post "I think what you’re going to see is the deep- value buyers coming in to get $1 for 50 cents," said Rick Maples co-head of in vestment banking and head of the financial institutions group at boutique investment firm Stifel Nicolaus.

In a perverse way it is good news for banks. At least someone will buy something from them, which should raise the value of their troubled assets over time.

Douglas A. McIntyre

GM (GM) And Toyota (TM): 662,000 Recalls

GM (NYSE: GM) and Toyota (NYSE: TM) are, between the two of them, recalling 662,000 cars in the US, a market where only 15 million vehicles will be sold this year.

Most of the problems are with power windows.

The recalls point to potential long-term problems in the car industry. GM’s issue is that it has cut down the number of plants it has and also laid off or bought out its most senior workers. Trying to produce a wide range of models, from Caddies to Pontiacs, is not as easy with a small work force and plants that have to be re-purposed to build multiple platforms.

At Toyota, the problem may actually be more difficult. Two decades ago, the company could satisfy most demand by building in Japan, where costs were low at that point, and shipping overseas. Controlling quality when the plants were across the street was not terribly difficult. Now those plants can be 10,000 miles away.

Car quality may never be the same again.

Douglas A. McIntyre

MySpace TV: A Show Without An Audience?

News Corp’s (NYSE: NWS) will create a series of TV shows around its MySpace social network website. In a sign that nepotism is not dead, a company owned by News Corp CEO Rupert Murdoch’s daughter, Elisabeth, will handle the syndication.

But, having it in the family may be OK, because it is difficult to see how the project will make any money. According to Reuters "The move is a play to make shows such as MySpaceTV’s "Quarterlife" or "Roommates" available outside of the United States." The shows were tested in the US and no one watched them.

Media companies will keep trying to move social networking to other platforms and they will keep trying to sell advertising onto the sites. None of it is likely to work. Social networks are among the most personal of internet experiences. People go to these sites to tell something about themselves and interact with friends who have common interests. They are not likely to be looking at advertising in the process and cannot be organized into neat little groups of people who trade stocks or go to baseball games.

There is not such thing as a social network on TV because the screen has no personality of its own.

Douglas A. McIntyre