Daily Archives: April 20, 2008

Looking At Starbucks (SBUX) Quality By Store, 24/7 Road-Trip

It has been one year since 24/7 Wall St. looked at over 40 Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) from Texas to New York.

Since then, the company has replaced its CEO with the company’s founder, Howard Schultz. The share price of SBUX has dropped from almost $32 to just above $17. The big coffee house company has gone so far as to close it 7,100 stores for a period of re-training staff. There are also plans for adding new coffee-brewing machines in each location.

Starbucks has gone so far as to release a new flagship brand product–Pike Place Roast. The company has put together a relationship with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) for marketing iTunes. It has formed a partnership with AT&T (NYSE: T) for free WiFi in Starbucks stores.

Some on Wall St. would argue that all of these alterations are too much to change in too short a period of time–a kind of corporate panic. With McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts both aggressively moving into the premium coffee business, Starbucks problems are more than internal. Its market share is under withering pressure.

Recently, 24/7 Wall St. went back to look at many of the 43 stores we visited a year ago, and a dozen new ones. We visited a number of locations in NYC from Time Square to Union Square to the Upper East Side. We also looked at outlets in Oakland Country, Michigan, Palm Beach, Florida, Houston, Fairfield, Connecticut and Westchester Country, NY. We stopped by several shops in San Francisco.

We rated locations on the same seven variables as last year: waiting time, cleanliness, bathrooms, seating, inventory, staff, and ambiance. On each of these, a store got a "1" to "3" rating, "3" being the best score.

Here is a detailed look at ten of the locations:

1. Starbucks Memorial, Houston, is located in a relatively new strip center, but it is located in a swarm of Memorial Drive traffic situated on the inbound traffic side of the street where thousands of Houstonians drive into downtown.   It might also be dubbed as the Jogger’s Starbucks because it’s so close to Memorial Park where thousands of joggers convene daily. The staff here is friendly and fast and they have been keeping the place much cleaner than in the past from the condiments area to the bathroom.  There is still this issue of stocking store merchandise haphazardly around the store with no real flow.  Newspapers are located too far from the register. The inside seating area is a bit small for the location, although the outside patio may seat more people than the inside.  There was a huge difference from last year to this year as the store seems to kept much cleaner.

Ratings 1-3 (3 being the best): Wait – 3; Cleanliness – 3; Toilet – 3; Space – 2; Personnel – 3; Inventory – 3; Ambiance – 2.

2. Starbucks River Oaks South, Houston is location is located near a SBUX store which has a frequently busy drive-thru window.  Everything at the location is an acceptable "2 rating", with not very much wrong.  The staff is actually very friendly here.  The one thing that the company did right here is that as you walk into the store, literally every bit of extra merchandise from newspapers, to mugs, and the rest is within grasp or within two extra steps on the way to the register.  The only issue with the seating is that there is a bit of a bottleneck at the back. While the inside is somewhat small, they have made the best use of seating inside and it has a decent sized outside patio.

Rating 1-3 (3 being the best) Wait – 2; Cleanliness – 2; Toilet – 2; Space – 2; Personnel – 3; Inventory – 2; Ambiance – 2.

3. Starbucks River Oak North, Houston is probably the better of the two dueling locations at this intersection.  This location is busy and the drive-thru does well.  The staff here has always been one of the more pleasant groups of employees at area Starbucks. The store is set up so that people coming in from one of the main entrances miss all of the merchandise.  The flip side is that if you come in through the main door you literally walk past just about every bit of merchandise the store sells.  The ambiance here is nice and there is more than enough seating.  The one complaint would be that the main floor area has too many old newspapers just lying around cluttering up the center of the store

Rating (1 to 3, 3 being best)   Wait Time – 3, Cleanliness – 2, Bathrooms – 2, Space – 3, Personnel – 3, Inventory – 2, Ambiance – 3.

4. Starbucks Galleria, Houston is perhaps the largest Starbucks in Houston and has to be larger than 99% of all other stores in the country. Last year 24/7 noted many improvements that could be made and the issues are the same or worse.  On the positive side this is one of the cooler locations because it is enormous inside, the flow is good for most merchandise, there is lots of seating around. The lay-out is almost a Halo-shaped It would be a chore to keep this place clean as it is busy like a gas station on a major interstate.  It might even take one dedicated person whose only purpose is cleaning. This location is dirty from the condiment area, to the floors, the cloth seats inside the Halo are enough to turn anyone with OCD’s to go to the doctor, and the bathroom is old, rickety, and just filthy.  Waiting in line can be a fairly long process with only one register being used.  For such a flagship location, it is amazing that the staff is so ‘blah’ and there are not enough people when you consider the amount of traffic.  If Mr. Schultz ever went here he would be embarrassed.

Rating (1 to 3, 3 being best)  Wait -1, Cleanliness – 1-2, Toilet – 1, Space – 3, Personnel – 1, Inventory – 2, Ambiance – 3.

5. Starbucks Ridgefield, CT is one of the better stores 24/7 has looked at in the Northeast. The staff is friendlier and better trained than at most stores. Food, coffee and merchandise availability are fine. The store has good seating, indoor and out. The store and bathroom are clean, not just compared to other Starbucks but to most good restaurants.

Rating (1 to 3, 3 being best) Wait-3, Cleanliness-2, Toilet-3, Space-2, Personnel-3, Inventory-3, Ambiance-3.

6. Starbucks Westport, Route 1, CT. This location is Starbucks hell. Odd, because it is in an affluent area without a huge amount of traffic.  The staff looks though people at some horizon not visible to patrons. The bathroom was filthy. The location is dark and the atmosphere is cold. The inventory and seating are reasonable, but no one in his right mind would want to stay more than a few minutes. The store has gotten much worse over the last year.

Rating (1 to 3, 3 being best) Wait-2, Cleanliness-2, Toilet-1, Space-2, Personnel-1, Inventory-3, Ambiance-1.

7 Starbucks Darien, CT. Another location where service should benefit from modest traffic and wealthy patrons. This Starbucks take no advantage of that. One nice touch was that the toilets were dirty compounded by the fact that one did no flush. Always a good sign at a food establishment. The help was pleasant, but unenthusiastic. The location was able to get people in and out fairly fast, but there was not much foot traffic during our stay.  The seating was a nice touch with plenty of tables outside. This store was much better off when we stopped by a few times late last year.

Rating (1 to 3, 3 being best) Wait-2, Cleanliness-2, Toilet-1, Space-2, Personnel-1. Inventory-3, Ambiance-2.

8. Starbucks Greenwich, CT. It is hard to find a small store where three people can hardly do the work of two, but this location seems to prize that odd capacity in its workers. One-and-a-half people spent their time doing nothing. Consequently what could have been a modest crowded of customers turned into a group of patrons unhappy about waiting for what they had ordered. While this may sound like a broken record, the store and bathroom were not clean. This location has one advantage. The building is beautiful and so are the views. Seating has been set up to take advantage of that. The store’s quality has dropped off.

Rating (1-3, 3 being best) Wait-1, Cleanliness-1, Toilet-2, Space-3, Personnel-2, Inventory-3, Ambiance-3.

9. Starbucks Mt. Kisco, NY. This location is well located with entrances from the street and a side door from the shopping area behind it. It has more light than most locations, with large windows and excellent seating. The staff is pleasant to one another but disengaged from the customers. The store is dirty. This Starbucks does appear to sell almost everything conceivable, so if goodies are important, please stop by.

Rating (1-3, 3 being best) Wait-2, Cleanliness-1, Toilet-2, Space-3, Personnel-3, Inventory-3, Ambiance-2.
10.

Starbucks Fairfield, CT. If anyone at Starbucks bothers to benchmark stores and bring in managers to see what works, this location would have to be near the head of the class. The store is one two floors. The seating area is bright and airy. The staff is engaging and quick. The location is clean as a whistle. Even the inside of the bathroom is decorated and pleasant. It offered better seating than the regular tables at some of the Starbucks 24/7 looked at over the last week. Someone did something very right here.

Rating (1-3, 3 being best) Wait-3, Cleanliness-3, Toilet-3, Space-3, Personnel-3, Inventory-2, Ambiance-3.

How Starbucks Has Changed In A Year.

We talked to several store managers. As one in Connecticut told us, most customers have not noticed that changes which management has tried to make at the stores at all. The new brand of coffee, The results of training. Employees take the idea of making changes seriously but that does not seem to be reflected in the customer’s reactions.

The things which changed the least were ambiance, seating, and inventory. Most stores with cramped seating or too few seats did not change. This may be a sign of management overlooking something which is not related to coffee but is important to customers. Inventory at most stores is still very good. Starbucks is almost never out of anything, a critical key for success at retailers of any sort.

Waiting time is down at about two-thirds of the stores. This has to be bad news. Workers at Starbucks are supposed to spend more time on making drinks and not less. Management has made it clear that careful brewing of each drink is critical to the "Starbucks" experience. Perhaps that is not happening at the store level. The other explanation is that there are fewer customers. That would hardly be ideal, but could certainly account for less waiting time.

Gauging the attitude of staff is clearly subjective. But, at almost all stores, it appears that employees take the company’s issues seriously, believe that the new training reminded them of how they should go about their jobs, and are trying harder to make the customer experience as good as possible.

The biggest of the problems which Starbucks can control and has not is cleanliness at stores. Nearly half of the store we visited ranked no better than "2" on this measurement, and about 20% rated only "1".The same holds true of the store bathrooms. If Starbucks is a neighborhood place to have coffee and a snack, bring kids, and have small meetings, clean stores must be absolutely critical to keeping people coming back.

Starbucks is, to a large extent, focusing on the wrong things. A new brand of coffee and new brewing machines are not going to do anything for the company’s issues if Starbucks cannot even maintain a pristine environment.

Starbucks comeback is in trouble. 24/7 Wall St. has attached a short memo to CEO Howard Schultz. He may not read it, but his competition might.

Douglas A. McIntyre

EMC & VMware, An Earnings Differential (EMC, VMW)

We already gave a preview for the stocks we consider the most go-to in tech-land this coming week, but there are other major and key stocks that are grouped in other manners.  Two such companies are VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) and EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC).  EMC saw a surge of interest in 2007 as it owned roughly 86% of the post-IPO Vmware, but that was then.  EMC sits only a bit more than 10% above its 52-week lows and VMware has lost more than half of its post-IPO hype price.

VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) is set to report earnings first of the two companies.  First Call has estimates for the king of virtualization set at $0.22 EPS on $422.3 million in revenues.  Estimates for next quarter are $0.25 EPS on $463.5 million in revenues and fiscal Dec-2008 estimates are $1.08 EPS on $1.99 Billion in revenues. The post-IPO trading range is $41.41 to $125.25.  Shares closed up 6% Friday at $58.47 and the average analyst target on this one has come down to just over $64.00 on last look.  In the current climate, new companies with huge market caps, way above-market multiples, limited operating history, and that have well over half the stock tied up by a parent that could sell out over the next year or two, it is probably safe to assume that the company has to beat estimates to keep everyone pleased. 

Wednesday we’ll get to see earnings out of EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC). The estimates for the information infrastructure technologies developer from First Call are $0.16 EPS on $3.45 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.18 EPS on $3.57 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $0.79 EPS on $14.96 billion in revenues.  Analysts have an average price target north of $20.00, and EMC Corporation’s 52-week trading range is $14.01 to $25.47.

If you will recall, we noted value manager Whitney Tilson’s call for the "EMC-stub" where he laid out the scenario that you were essentially buying EMC for under $5.00.  Those numbers will have changed by now, but it is interesting how this is and was available.

Perhaps we’ll get to hear EMC discuss its intentions of how long it plans to hold the stock.  The company recently said it wants to hold that indefinitely, but we’ve heard that song and seen that change before in other similar situations.

Recently, we covered some major issues coming up in virtualization.

Jon C. Ogg
April 20, 2008

Jon Ogg is a producer and editor of the Special Situation newsletter and the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247Wallst.com.

Major Tech Earnings Upon Us (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, YHOO)

This is going to be an extremely busy week for earnings in all industries, but tech investors will have a foursome that they will be watching ever so closely.  These four are  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO).  Keep in mind, that some of these estimates will change slightly before the reports as other companies report and as analysts make their last minute tweaks.

After the close of the market on Tuesday, we’ll get to see earnings out of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and get hopefully one more glimpse of what is going on inside Jerry Yang’s head.  The search engine and content giant is expected to post earnings of $0.09 EPS on $1.32 Billion revenues (ex-TAC revenues).  For Q2, it is expected to post $0.11 EPS on revenues of $1.37 Billion; and for fiscal 2008 it is expected to see $0.44 EPS on $5.62 Billion.  Steve Ballmer already put the heat on the company in his last written gesture after the buyout offer by noting Yahoo!’s core business has softened and the economy has softened, and he even warned that he’d make a lower offer if Microsoft has to go hostile.

Wednesday after the close we’ll get to see earnings out of Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). The estimates for the retail web-site manufacturer from First Call are $0.32 EPS on $4.09 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.29 EPS on $3.85 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $1.54 EPS on $19.29 billion in revenues. Analysts have an average price target north of $86.00, and Amazon’s 52-week trading range is $44.16 to $101.09. With this stock doing much better than many of the other web retailers it will be interesting to see how the company guides for 2008 as the economy is still softening.

Wednesday after the close we’ll get to see earnings out of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). The estimates for the computer, mobile music players, and cell phone maker from First Call are $1.06 EPS on $6.95 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $1.10 EPS on $7.14 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Sept-2008 are $5.15 EPS on $31.65 billion in revenues.  Analysts have an average price target north of $192.00, and Apple’s 52-week trading range is $89.83 to $202.96.

After the close on Thursday, we get to see earnings out of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), and this earnings should pretty much seal the fate (well, the trend anyway) for the bulk of PC companies in the coming weeks as we will have heard from the makers of the hardware guts inside the boxes and the software vendor.  First Call has estimates for the software behemoth at $0.44 EPS on $14.49 Billion in revenues.  As far as guidance ahead, the estimates are $0.48 EPS on $15.56 Billion for its fourth quarter (June-2008).  Estimates for the fiscal June-2009 are $2.10 EPS on $66.47 Billion in revenues.  Analysts are still positive on the stock, and the average price target is around $39.00.  Its 52-week trading range is $26.87 to $37.50. Wall Street may care most about how hostile Ballmer will get with Jerry Yang & Co.

As we get to the day of earnings, we’ll give more detailed earnings previews that show more detailed chart action, options analysis, and more.  As a reminder, many of these estimates will be slightly different ahead of the actual results.

Jon C. Ogg
April 20, 2008

Jon Ogg is a producer and editor of the Special Situation newsletter and the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247Wallst.com.

The Market Rally Everyone Wanted Can’t Be Sustained (JPM)(ORCL)(IBM)(AAPL)(MER)(RIMM)(BIDU

Wall St. wanted some sign that the the recession might not be pulling the economy under for the next four or five quarters. Some investors still have hopes that the downturn will not be deep and long.

Last week, women and children flooded that streets of the Financial District as prices of crippled financial companies took to the sky like fireworks. By the end of the week some of the weakest members of the S&P had posted out-sized returns. Stocks in financial firms including Merrill Lynch (MER), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and JP Morgan (JPM) were up between 7% and 10%. Lehman (LEH) rose over 14% for the period. At these rates, most big financial stocks could reach their 52-week highs less than two months.

The tech sector looked almost the same. Oracle (ORCL) rose almost 10%. Microsoft (MSFT), about to report earnings, was up over 6%. Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Apple (AAPL), and RIM (RIMM) had outstanding weeks. The gains in Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) were beyond comprehension.

Most of the sharp improvement was driven by three pieces of information. IBM’s business grew well in almost every segment and every region. That allowed investors to check the box for good news in software and hardware. Google beat anticipated results. That took care of concerns about the internet sector. Citigroup posted big write-offs, but analysts in the bank sector started to pay lip service to the idea that the worst might be over in the credit markets.

As Bank of America (BAC), Microsoft, AT&T (T), and Boeing (BA) report over the next few days, positive signs could push the Dow up a few hundred more points. The index high is only about 1,400 points away. Why not take that out in the process?

All of this rally news may well be drawing investors into a trap. The core elements which have caused the market to go down and recession talk to go up are still in place. The American consumer is still as poor as a church mouse. Most companies outside the Fortune 1000 are still having trouble getting credit to expand their businesses. Drops in interest rates are not being passed from banks to consumers. Perhaps most insidious, the cost of gas and commodities are still rising sharply.

It may not take more than one or two pieces of bad news to break the back of the rally. There is still tough credit news hiding in the forest nearby. Some is about housing, some about credit card and auto loans, and some about the continuing fall in value of derivative securities. Oil may keep driving higher. There may be a very big jump in unemployment disclosed in the next month.

This rally is a rally until it isn’t, and that is not too long from now.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Has Barron’s Humiliated Itself With “Top Advisers List” (MS)(MER)(JPM)(UBS)

Once a year, Barron’s publishes its "The Top 100 Financial Advisers List." Much of the research for the article is done by an outfit known as "Winner’s Circle", based in Boca Raton.

Most of the advisers on the list work at large firms like JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), and UBS (NYSE:UBS).

The list may well be useful for looking at who does well giving advise to investors and how they think about the market. But, this year, in a full-page advertisement, Morgan Stanley congratulates each of it employees on the list. Even a casual observer would have to assume that the investment bank’s advertising and PR department saw the article well before it went to press.

News organizations are supposed to keep their advertising departments away from content until after it is published. Otherwise, it at least appears that commerce can influence content. That may not be true at Barron’s, but one would have hoped that the magazine would have seen fit to turn the Morgan Stanley ad down because it looks bad.

To make things a bit worse. Barron’s ran another section of stories about corporate jets. The articles were written by staff at Business Jet magazine and edited at Barron’s. Since the old Dow Jones publication is about investing and not the flying habits of the rich, the section looks like a way to pick up private aircraft ads. It seems to have worked. FlexJet, Falcon, and Jet Aviation all took ads.

Douglas A. McIntyre

As OPEC Holds Production, Oil Moves Toward $150

Whenever the ministers to OPEC are asked if there is any chance they will raise oil production, the answer is "no." Yesterday, the president of the cartel, Chakib Khelil, said “Any increase in production now will not have an impact on prices because there is a balance between supply and demand,’ according to Bloomberg. Oddly enough, word came from International Energy Agency that emerging market use of oil had passed use in the US for the first time. No matter how great the farce, the power of reason cannot change the cartel’s attitude.

Even a relatively small incident like the attack of a Japanese oil tanker sent oil up by $1.

It has occurred to OPEC members that their best play is to do nothing. With crude now above $116 the tens of billion of dollars in extra profits coming to them can be explained away as being caused by speculation and a weak dollar. The fact that demand is still moving up in China, India, and much of the developing world has nothing to do with it.

Part of the perverse hope among those concerned with oil prices has been that an economic slowdown in the West would drop demand enough to undermine crude prices. A quick look at the price of gasoline in the US, now nearing $4 a gallon, gives lie to that. Americans are not driving a great deal more, but they cannot walk to work, school, and retailers. Demand will not fall in the US.

Oil dropped to close to $50 in early 2007, so its price is up 120% since then. It is up 65% since late last summer, and 45% since last fall. The awful thing about these price increases is that it is hard to point to any reason for demand to pull back. Oil is being used more in the developed world, the developing world, and in oil-producing countries themselves. Mexico and Nigeria are building infrastructure and more of their own citizens have cars.

At the same time OPEC is holding the line on production, suppliers of crude like Russia and the US and not pumping more. The Saudis have said the will not make further investment in their oil production facilities after 2009.

An environment of rising prices without significant alteration in supply and demand fuels more rising prices. Oil at $150 is only 30% above today’s price. At the current rate of increase, crude will be there by Fall. As brokers and mutual funds like to say "past performance is no guarantee of future returns". But, oil prices are facing the same dynamics of which have ruled the market for two years.

Nothing is changing.

Douglas A. McIntyre 

This week on Stockhouse April 14 – 18

Unpredictable week for U.S. stocks on mixed earnings reports

Wall Street started the week down, on news of an unexpected loss at Wachovia. Tuesday and Wednesday saw U.S. stocks up on better-than-expected earnings reports from the financial sector as well as IBM, Coca-Cola, and Intel. Thursday’s mix of both upbeat and bleak earnings reports lead to a volatile session that ended with U.S. stocks slightly higher. And, stocks soared Friday following Google and Citigroup financials. The TSX spent the week up on rising oil prices and commodities, reaching a five-month high Thursday on financials and energy stocks.

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