Daily Archives: June 3, 2008

S&P Boots AMBAC (ABK, LO, CG, LTR)

After the close of trading today, Standard & Poor’s announced that it is booting Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK) out of the S&P 500 Index.  The company’s size has gotten too small to be considered on of America’s top 500 by size (let alone by reputation).  As of today’s close of trading Ambac’s market capitalization was roughly $860 million, which gave it a ranking of the lowest market cap of the S&P 500.

Lorillard Inc. (NYSE: LO) will replace Ambac in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on next Tuesday, June 10.  Lorillard is being distributed to the public via a two-tier process first involving the retirement of the tracking stock Carolina Group (NYSE: CG), in exchange for which approximately 62% of Lorillard’s common stock will be issued; and second an offer in which shares of S&P 500 constituent Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) can be exchanged for the remaining shares of Lorillard. 

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (PFE)(RF)(EK)(JAVA)(WB)

Wachovia (WB) Sacking of CEO is still driving away shareholders. Down to $21.04 from 52-week high of $54.54.

Sun Microsystems (JAVA) sells off on concerns that the company’s bad forecasts could get worse. Down to $12.32 from 52-week high of $25.04.

Eastman Kodak (EK) Needs to raise prices, but customers may not pay. Falls to $14.21 from 52-week high of $30.20.

Regions Financial (RF) Banking stocks still taking spanking. Analysts warning sector could fall more. Drops down to $16.36 from 52-week high of $35.91.

Pfizer  (PFE) Questions about whether company can sustain dividend take it down to $18.93 from 52-week high of $27.73.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A Viking Funeral For Sun Microsystems (JAVA)

Sun Microsystems (JAVA) hit a new 52-week low of $12.32. The market has believed for some time that the server company will have a poor year with relatively flat revenue and little or no operating income.

Sun has not been part of the recover in tech stocks. Since the beginning of the year, JAVA is down almost 30%. Shares in HP (HPQ) are off a little over 7% and IBM (IBM) is up 10%.

Wall St. is unlikely to bid the price of the shares up unless the company’s board is prepared to replace management or break the company into pieces. Sun has three core business: hardware, storage, and support and professional services. In the last quarter, product revenue for the company was $2 billion and service sales were $1.26 billion.

Sun’s shares have nowhere to go, if the firm continues to be operated in its current form.

Douglas A.McIntyre

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Lehman (LEH) Selling Turns To Panic

Shares in Lehman (LEH) are now down almost 12% at $29.68 as concerns about the company’s viability grow. Several media sources said the company would raise between $3 billion and $4 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

GM (GM) Sales Go To Hell

GM (GM) reported a 28% drop in May domestic sales to 268,892 cars and trucks from 371,056 a year ago. Cars dropped 14% while trucks fell 37%. GM blamed strikes, including the three-month break at supplier American Axle and Manufacturing.

Ford (F) sales fell to 217,998 vehicles in May from 259,470 a year earlier. Truck sales plunged 29% for Ford. Sales of the Explorer SUV dropped 41% to 8,122, while demand for the Expedition tumbled 43% 5,252. Sales of the automaker’s top selling F-Series pickup trucks dropped 31% to 42,973 vehicles.

According to Bloomberg, "Toyota Motor Corp (TM). and Honda Motor Co. (HMC) each had two car models that outsold Ford Motor Co.’s F-Series trucks in the U.S. last month, as consumers shift away from pickups and sport-utility vehicles. Honda sold 53,299 Civics and 43,778 Accords last month, spokesman Chris Martin said. Toyota sold 52,826 Corollas and 51,291 Camrys, according to a statement. Ford reported sales of 42,973 F-Series pickups."

Douglas A. McIntyre

Stevia One Step Closer To Food & Beverage Market (KO, PEP)

If you have been a "diet" or zero calorie soft drink beverage drinker or have used artificial sweeteners on foods, there has always been the issue of "what are you putting into your body?".  Most sugar-substitute sweeteners on the market have a myriad of chemicals or are derived from sugar.  Finally this is about to change, and the change will be official.

Last year there was a report on CNBC citing the WSJ that Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) had teamed up with Cargill to develop and market a new calorie-free natural sweetener in an attempt to appeal to a growing band of health-conscious consumers.  The problem is that this from the Stevia plant, and it is not approved as a "food additive" in the U.S. nor in Europe. 

The most recognized brand for Stevia is SweetLeaf(R), under parent Wisdom Natural Brands(R) based in Gilbert, Arizona.  Until now this had to be sold as a "dietary supplement" and could not be marketed as a sweetener because Stevia is not approved as a food additive in the U.S. nor in Europe.  SweetLeaf(R) Sweetener(TM) has recently achieved GRAS status (generally recognized as safe) via outside independent review.

The regulatory and production challenges that hindered Coca-Cola’s & Cargill’s "rebania" product may soon be about to change.  Stevia comes from an all natural plant root and has been used as an "artificial sugar-free and calorie-free sweetener" for years by many.  Cargill’s website links you to its own Truvia(tm), and Cargill made their announcement in mid-May calling it a sweetener.

This nod might not do anything for the production challenges and current supply limitations that may exist.  But this a great start.  Coca-Cola has many patents that may cover this, but you can be assured that Pepsico (NYSE: PEP) and other food and beverage makers may take an interest if they haven’t already.

It’s always touchy writing about a product you use or a product you like, because the objectivity becomes skewed.  But this is something that is written about with some cheer.  The truth is that some people love the flavor or sweetness of Stevia, and many don’t.  This won’t lead to a category-killer product that kills all traditional soft drinks nor will it kill all diet drinks and other sugar substitutes or sweeteners in foods.  But it will lead to a new category of sugar-substitute drinks and foods that have previously not been allowed on the market.

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

MarketAxess Scores on Cap Raise (MKTX)

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MKTX) has raised some $35 million from Technology Crossover Ventures. The financing involves the sale of preferred stock and warrants at a conversion price of $10.00 per share, which is a 34% premium to yesterday’s closing price on a simple basis.

The company also announced that its Board of Directors has adopted a three-year stockholder rights plan designed to protect the long-term value of the Company for its stockholders during any future unsolicited acquisition attempt.

MarketAxess is not as well known as some of the other equity platforms as it is an operator of an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds and for fixed-income securities.  This financing may help the company get its name farther out there.

Shares are actually up 2% on thin volume after the news.  At the end of the March 2008 quarter, the company had some $54.299 million in cash and equivalents and also had an extra $38.77 million listed in "long-term investments."  Prior to any dilution, its market cap was listed as $255 million.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other special financings, mergers, IPO’s, secondary offerings, restructurings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

Boston Scientific Keeps CEO Tobin But Dumps COO (BSX)

Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) is making a move which may be a questionable one if you have followed this stock for a while.  The company said that President and CEO Jim Tobin will be extending his tenure at the Boston Scientific and he plans to remain in his role for the foreseeable future.  Back in December we named Tobin on our list of CEO’s that need to go, and shares have only recently come back to the levels seen then.

But there is a management change that Wall Street seems happy with so far.  Paul LaViolette, Chief Operating Officer (COO), will be retiring from the Boston Scientific.  He is only about 50 years old, so retirement is a stretch.  LaViolette joined Boston Scientific back in 1994 and he has been COO since 2005.  Fred Colen will become the President of its Cardiac Rhythm Management.

Pete Nicholas, Co-founder and Chairman of the Board of Boston Scientific: "I am very pleased to announce that Jim Tobin will be extending his tenure as President and Chief Executive Officer of Boston Scientific."  Nichols also noted that Tobin has been involved in mainly integrating Guidant since his first extension two-years ago, and LaViolette has managed much of the day-to-day operations at the other operations of the company.  This will put Tobin back in charge of the entire company. 

Boston Scientific shares are up 1.5% at $13.33 today, so Wall Street is making the first vote that this is the right call.  Shares are also up over 20% from their 52-week lows of $10.76, but down from the 52-week highs of $16.67 and way down from the old $40+ highs of early 2004.

Maybe a CEO can blame the COO for missteps, but only for a while.  If things don’t improve very soon then Tobin is going to need to call LaViolette and see where he’s working in his "retirement."

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

Small Businesses Hit By Credit Environment

The Small Business Administration’s most popular small-business loan is down 19 percent nationally in volume from the same time a year ago, based on agency data.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch "The reason for the dip is twofold: Some banks are making fewer loans, and fewer entrepreneurs are seeking them."

Often, small business owners will use their homes as collateral for borrowing money for their operations. With many homes worth less than their mortgages, the practice is disappearing.

The news points to another set of circumstances undermining the growth of smaller companies, which employ a large part of the US work force. The federal government has done little to address this, which may lead to falling employment as lay-offs outside very large companies rise.

So far, this recession has not been marked by high unemployment the way that the 1973 and 1982 downturns were. In those periods, the unemployment rate hit almost 10%, which would be double the current level.

Large companies in the auto, airline, and financial sectors are cutting staff, but the tech and consumer products portions of the economy are still doing well.

If small business employment growth falters, the national unemployment figure could move up two or three points.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sherwin-Williams, Too Poor to Paint (SHW)

Sherwin-Williams Co. (NYSE: SHW)  is under trading pressure this morning based on an earnings warning the company issued in pre-market hours.  The paint and coatings company cited lower sales, housing woes, and of course the lovely higher cost of raw materials.  It had already lowered numbers earlier.

For its second quarter, it sees $1.40 to $1.50 EPS, down from its prior guidance of $1.45 to $1.60 and under the $1.53 estimate from First Call.  But the full-year forecast is far worse.  It now sees $3.60 to $4.10 EPS for the year, down from its prior guidance of $4.70 to $4.85 EPS and well under First Call’s estimate of $4.71 EPS.

Shares are down over 6% right after the open at $52.35.  Its 52-week trading range is $49.99 to $73.96.

There is obviously a severe issue on new homes and relatively new homes, but the good news is ultimately people have to pain their existing homes whether they want to or not.  When funds are tight, maybe it’s easier to just let the paint peel.   

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

SuccessFactors Secondary Greatly Increases Float (SFSF)

SuccessFactors, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFSF) is exiting that 180-day lock-up period, and the company is going to sell shares along with shareholders according to the SEC FILING.  The company filed to sell 7,540,612 shares of common stock, of which 2,500,000 shares will be sold by the company and the rest from shareholders.  The company’s original filing to offer shares was made last week.

Underwriters for this offering are listed as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Pacific Crest, ThinkPanmure, Pacific Crest, and Broadpoint.

What is more important than anything here is that this is going to greatly increase its public float.  It priced its IPO of 10.79 million shares at $10.00.

Shares closed at $11.21 yesterday, and its post-IPO trading range is $7.49 to $15.27.

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ANF, ASTI, ASMI, NILE, CHU, CSX, DPS, LLTC, QCOM, WOOF )

These are ten of the analyst calls we are focusing on this Tuesday morning in pre-market trading:

  • Abercrombie (NYSE: ANF) cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Ascent Solar (NASDAQ: ASTI) started as Neutral at Jefferies.
  • ASM Intl NV (NASDAQ: ASMI) started as Underperform at Jefferies.
  • Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) Started as Underweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX) cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Dr Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) started as Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Linear Tech (NASDAQ: LLTC) cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF) Started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Jon C. Ogg
June 3, 2008

The Newspapers: Rating The Top 25 Newspaper Websites

The struggle for large daily metropolitan newspapers to stay profitable and survive is based on the race between the drop in their print advertising and the improvement of their online sales. Newspaper industry costs are rising along with fuel and commodities prices. Most large dailies have resorted to lay-offs. Even The New York Times and Washington Post are cutting staff, including reporters and editors.

Revenue is falling sharply based on a review of the numbers from publicly traded newspaper companies. The sole exception may be The New York Times Company, where online revenue is now well over 10% of the total. In April, NYT online ad revenue rose almost 26%. The company claims its collection of web properties had the 11th largest number of online visitors in America, with over 49 million unique visitors in April.  Gannett’s sites rank in 36th place with 23 million unique visitors, but most newspaper companies are not as lucky.  Even The Washington Post was only able to generate $27 million in online revenue in the first quarter. This was a very modest increase of 8% over the same period the year before. This revenue compares to $206 million in total sales for the newspaper division during this period.  That spells trouble, no matter how Wall St. looks at it.

Because online versions of major newspapers are certainly the key to future revenue growth and profits, 24/7 Wall St. looked at the websites of the top 25 newspapers in the US based on their circulations as of March 31, 2008 taken from the Audit Bureau of Circulations.

The sites got ratings of “A” through “F” based on:  1) strength of content, 2) ease of use and navigation, 3) use of new web technology including comments sections, message boards, and multimedia, 4) lay-out 5) presence of a strong set of current advertisers, and 6) the size of their audiences based on measurements from the Compete website visitor database for April.

The most important conclusion from this review of online newspaper sites is how uneven the quality is from property to property. Some of the smaller papers which probably have modest resources have done an extremely good job of engaging readers, using the best tools of the internet, and putting up content which adds to the experience of the subscriber to the physical newspaper. Some of these sites are likely to draw multiple visits from the same person throughout the day, the Holy Grail of online content behavior. Other sites seem to be designed to keep readers away. There is clearly not much benchmarking going on in the online part of the newspaper industry, and with the increasing risk that more newspapers will fail,not using a standardized measurement of excellence for improvement is a real shame.

The Wall Street Journal and USA Today rank among the top 25 newspapers, but they are not included here because they are national properties and have access to corporate budgets which may not be available to most of the websites reviewed. It is safe to say that WSJ.com is as good if not better than any other online paper. It has invested huge sums, successfully, in interactive features, the use of blogs, reader response tools and multimedia features from video to charting. It is not, however, a general daily paper. It is a financial publication. News Corp, which owns that paper, is out to change that to some extent, but the metamorphosis is in its early stages.

The final judgment of a newspaper’s online edition is whether, using the advantages of the internet, is it better than the paper itself. As one industry expert told 24/7, “The strength of a newspaper web site is its ability to present almost endless information, far more than it could ever afford to print. The best newspapers take advantage of this by explaining in their print editions where additional information on a particular subject can be found — the full text of a speech or a court document, for instance.”

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Microsoft (MSFT) And HP (HPQ) Gang Up On Google (GOOG)

Microsoft (MSFT) has cut a deal with HP (HPQ) to put its Live Search into the internet tool bar which ships on the hardware companies PCs in the US and Canada. Redmond is, in essence, trying to buy search share.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Google currently accounts for 62% of all searches in the U.S., while Yahoo has 20% and Microsoft 9%, Mr. Aggarwal estimates. That makes it important for Microsoft — which recently mounted and then withdrew a buyout bid for Yahoo — to increase its exposure with PC users."

Of course, most PC users are savvy in the way of internet browsing and will simply put Google (GOOG) on their bookmark list and use it for all of their searching.

Douglas A. McIntyre

US Government: $100 Plus Oil Forever

The experts in the US government have finally come around to the reality that oil prices are not going to drop. And, they could stay high for a very, very long time.

"You’ve got this global market still operating at very low spare (oil production) capacity, all of which is in Saudi Arabia," Guy Caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration told Reuters.

It is a classic case of the government getting to the barn doors after all of the horses are gone and part of the reason that the Feds are slow to address the issues that keep crude prices up higher than most analysts ever dreamed they would get.

Perhaps that EIA missed the rising demand for crude in China and India and the slowing production out of Mexico, Indonesia, and Russia.

As the agency acknowledges the problem now, no one benefits.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Lehman (LEH): Another Financial CEO In Trouble (C)(MER)(WB)

After indicating that the worst was behind it, Lehman (LEH) may have to raise another $3.4 billion. That would be an indication that the brokerage will lose much more than expected in the second quarter. It also puts CEO Richard Fuld in a group which includes the heads of Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER), and Citigroup (C). His board can no longer protected him from a series of bad decisions which have driven down the LEAH stock and started rumors that the company is in deep trouble.

"Lehman still has a lot of exposure to the mortgage market, and they are going to need capital to get through it," said BUS analyst Glenn Score, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Lehman shares dropped sharply in March when they hit a 52-week low. The stock fell below $32. Comments from management about the health of the company and a potential end of the credit crisis helped move the shares back up to over almost $50. Over the last week or so, analysts have downgraded the stock and its has fallen again.

The fact that Lehman will have to raise money certainly will make investors doubt that the firm has any grasp of the gravity of its troubles. Stockholders face another 20% dilution and that may not be the end of it. There is no guarantee that Lehman will recover in the last two quarters of the year.

Fuld and his board bought time with a thin optimism which is now gone. Fuld will be gone with it.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Yahoo! (YHOO): The Enemy Of My Friend Is My Enemy? (MSFT)(GOOG)

“It’s discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.”–Noel Coward

When Yahoo! (YHOO) tried to run away from a buy-out offer from Microsoft (MSFT), it sought comfort in the arms of Google (GOOG). Perhaps the two could form an alliance and the world’s largest search company could provide services to the second place company. Analysts said Yahoo! could make hundreds of millions of dollars by letting Google have the business. The move was effective in making Microsoft think twice about its offer.

But, then Microsoft just rode into the sunset.

It now turns our that Yahoo! had been bad-mouthing a deal just before Redmond came a-calling.

According to a report by Reuters, court papers show that "Yahoo Inc executives dismissed a search-advertising deal with Google due to antitrust concerns, one day before Microsoft Corp made its takeover offer earlier this year."

So, as it turns out, Yahoo! agreed with Microsoft’s later claim that having the No.1 and No.2 search companies hook up might be a problem for The Justice Department. Beyond that, Yahoo! viewed its potential alliance with Google as a chess move, but not the end of the game.

The news is yet another example of how badly Yahoo! has handled its M&A challenge. Google has seemed cool to a partnership with Yahoo!. Is is any wonder now that it is clear that it was only being used?

The only justice is that Yahoo!’s board and management are left holding the bag.

Douglas A. McIntyre

As Fundamentals Fall Apart, XM (XMSR) And Sirius (SIRI) Face Bankruptcy

For those who have not noticed, Sirius (SIRI) and XM Satellite (XMSR) are trading near multi-year lows. That is odd since many investors believe that the FCC will approve their merger. The agency may ask for a big concession which would be that the combined company would give up some spectrum so that a new satellite radio start-up could enter the market.

But, the time that the merger could help the two companies is almost certainly in the past. Each still has well over $1 billion in long-term debt. Neither makes any money. Subscriber growth is slowing. Goldman Sachs recently observed that a combined operation might have to raise as much as $1 billion to fund operations. That is a lot of dilution. It is possible that two companies, rated as "junk", may not be able to raise the funds at all, particularly in the current debt environment.

Many of the dynamics which made the two companies attractive investment several years ago are gone. According to The Wall Street Journal "The nation’s only two satellite services are growing slower than previously while the broader economy is in a slowdown. Fewer people have been buying new cars, which is where the companies derive the bulk of new subscribers."

At their current burn rates, both companies may start to run low on cash later this year, and debt service payments are already onerous. If subscriber growth nose dives, the trouble at the companies could accelerate.

Saving satellite radio may be beyond the province of a merger.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Wal-Mart (WMT) Sets Out To Kill The Newspaper Industry

Newspapers have been hit by so many arrows that it is a miracle that they are still standing. As internet ads have taken away much of their revenue and costs of printing and transportation have moved higher, margins at daily newspapers are disappearing.

While national and local ads at many papers are off 10% or better this year, it is the classified business that is really hurt. Some of the largest newspaper have lost 20% to 30% of their classified ad revenue this year. Most of this comes from the damaged real estate, auto, and job sectors.

One of the great enemies of the industry has been Craigslist, the huge online classified website. Now, Wal-Mart (WMT) is joining the phalanx set against newspapers.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Walmart.com Classifieds claims a reach of more than five million consumers each month through a network of sites, including newspapers, portals such as Lycos and online communities such as Military.com." And, it is giving the ads away for free.

Wal-Mart’s theory seems to be that giving classifieds to its customer will improve their loyalty to the world’s largest retailer. That may be true. It makes sense.

But, over at the local newspaper, another piece just got torn out of its heart.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 6/3/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

According to Reuters, Yahoo! (YHOO) rejected a tie up with Google (GOOG) before the Microsoft (MSFT) bid.

Retuers writes that loses may force Lehman (LEH) to raise another $3.4 billion.

Reuters reports that GM (GM) is expected to cut more costs as sales fall.

Reuters writes that Intel’s (INTC) new small chip "Atom" will try to push its way into the small PC market.

Reuters reports that the top US energy forecaster said oil could stay above $100 through 2009.

The Wall Street Journal reports that shareholder claim that Yahoo! adopted an employee severance plan to kill a deal with Microsoft.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Staples (SPLS) has raised its bid for Corporate Express.

The Wall Street Journal writes that many large advertisers on Google are troubled by smaller advertisers using tradmeked names.

Teh Wall Street Journal writes that Microsoft and HP (HPQ) have put together a search toolbar deal to be placed on the hardware company’s PCs.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Wal-Mart (WMT) will offer free classifed ads on its website.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the Sirius (SIRI) merger with XM Satellite (XMSR) is troubled by a slowdown in consumer demand for their products.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Pfizer (PFE) is looking at ways to keep fundng its large dividend.

The New York Times writes that the International Air Transport Association dropped its forecasts for2008.

The FT writes that George Soros will tell Congress that institutional investments in oil futures are helping drive prices higher.

Douglas A. McIntyre