Daily Archives: September 10, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club 9/10/2008 (WM)(LEH)(O)(SIRI)

ClownWashington Mutual (WM) Latest victim of credit debacle. Falls to $2.30 from 52-week high of $39.25.

Lehman (LEH) Restructuring plan has few friends. Down to $6.93 from 52-week high of $67.73.

Owens-Illinois (OI) Closed two plants. Drops to $33.91 from 52-week high of $60.60.

Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) Market does not like forecast of slowing growth. Drops to $.90 from 52-week high of $3.94

Douglas A. McIntyre

R-I-M’s Flipping Design (RIMM)

Blackberry_flip_logo_2Research-in-Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is trading up today on the hopes for the new expanded BlackBerry flip-phone which allows for slightly more screen space and typing space.  The BlackBerry Pearl Flip 8220 smartphone will be launched exclusively via T-Mobile this fall.

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The Grim Reaper Comes For Washington Mutual (WM)

GrimOver the last year, shares in Washington Mutual (WM) are down more than Lehman (LEH). It is distinction that defiles the managements and boards of both companies.

Washington Mutual’s days as an independent firm may be drawing to a close, unless there is a miracle reversal in the fortunes of the housing market.

WaMu’ market cap is only $3.4 billion. Its stock is down 22% today.

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Oilfield Services Stocks Still Headed South? (FWLT, NOV, SLB, WFT, BHI)

Oil_well_logo_2Less than a month ago, we published a story on oilfield services companies and how their stocks had fallen along with the price of crude. Their stocks should be doing better considering the services business should hold up much better than the raw price of crude. Since then, stock prices have fallen even further, and again, for no apparently good reason. Sure, crude oil prices have fallen more than $5/b since August 20th,but orders for new rigs are strong, day-rates are essentially atall-time highs, and the major players are able to fund new constructionout of cash flow, with cash left over to buyback stock or liftdividends.

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For Sirius (SIRI) A Trip To Penny Stock City

Sirius_logoAll sorts of bad things happen when a stock trades under $1. Some institutions can’t hold the shares. If the stock stays below the threshold too long, the Nasdaq can start delisting procedures.

Sirius (SIRI) hit $.99 this morning. Yesterday it put out guidance that Wall St. abhorred.

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Day Trader Alert: Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (SNDA)

Shanda_logoShanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: SNDA) is seeing an exponential volume surge at the open.  The Chinese interactive gaming software company has now seen more than 3.4 million shares trade hands and shares are up almost 1% at $28.22.  Shanda’s average daily volume is about 900,000 shares and today’s volume surpassed its post-earnings rally of 3.17 million shares.

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Day Trader Alert: ImClone Systems (IMCL, BMY)

ImClone Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: IMCL) is a biotech buyout bonanza stock that traders and investors have been watching closely.  The company has said that the proposed $60.00 per share cash buyout from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is inadequate.  Carl Icahn has been holding out for a better price and has been seeking other suitors.  Icahn noted that the CEO of another pharmaceutical company has now submitted a proposal that is subject to due diligence, but not to financing to acquire ImClone for $70.00 per share in cash.  ImClone has agreed to allow the company to conduct due diligence for a two-week period, subject to a confidentiality agreement, accordiing to Icahn.

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Citigroup Outlines Fannie/Freddie Exposure (C, FNM, FRE)

Citigroup_logoCitigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has just filed with the SEC information about its perceived total exposure to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities in an effort to fend off any over-exposure concerns.  As of September 8, the bank said its net exposure to the preferred and convertible preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was approximately $50 million.  Citi said it holds these securities primarily in its "Institutional Clients Group" trading account, which is marked-to-market through revenue.

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Lehman (LEH) Impresses No One

Lehman_brothersThe press release was a mile long.

Lehman "intends" to sell 55% of its money management unit.

Lehman "intends" to spin off to its shareholders $25 billion to $30 billion of its commercial real estate portfolio into a separate publicly- traded company, Real Estate Investments Global. It is very hard to see the value in the asset that stockholders will get from that.

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Lehman Earnings, Rewards For Bad Behavior (LEH)

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) has finally pre-announced its earnings at -$5.92 EPS.  First Call had estimates at worse -$3.00 but no one is using that estimate based upon the recent mudslide and rumors. The company is selling a majority stake in its Neuberger Berman asset management unit and said it was going to spin off its commercial mortgage assets to shareholders and will have limited exposure there.  It also cut its annual dividend to $0.05 and the company is exploring strategic alternatives.

Lehman is also saying its tier-1 capital ratio is 11% and is taking $5.3 billion in gross residential mortgage related adjustments. Its gross mark to market adjustments are a negative of $7.8 billion and net mark to market adjustments were $5.6 billion.

Shares closed way down yesterday at $7.79 and are trading around $8.70 in the early pre-market hours.  While it’s up now, this is anyone’s guess after the recent slide.  It doesn’t sound like it has any merger deal being imminent based on the data seen so far. Dick Fuld’s days appear very limited.

Jon C. Ogg
September 10, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (BNI, CERN, DECK, EV, HWAY, IPAR, NSC, RF)

There were other upgrades but these are the ones we are seeing having an impact on shares this morning:

  • Burlington Northern (BNI) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Cerner (CERN) Started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Eaton Vance (EV) Raised to Buy Goldman Sachs.
  • Healthways (HWAY) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Inter Parfums (IPAR) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Regions Financial (RF) Raised to Outperform at KBW.

Jon C. Ogg
September 10, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (CPHD, DRIV, FDRY, MAN, MLM, MPEL, MPS, SMOD, VMC)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades we are seeing affecting shares of stock this morning:

  • Cepheid (CPHD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Digital River (DRIV) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Foundry Networks (FDRY) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • Manpower (MAN) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Martin Marietta (MLM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Melco Crown (MPEL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • MPS Group (MPS) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Smart Modular (SMOD) Cut to Hold at Needham.
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
September 10, 2008

Financial Downgrades (BAC, BBT, CLMS, CMA, FITB, BEN, STI, VLY)

There were more downgrades in financial stocks, but these were the larger names that saw estimates or ratings cut by analysts this morning:

  • Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
  • BB&T (BBT) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
  • Calamos Asset Management (CLMS) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Comerica (CMA) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
  • Franklin Resources (BEN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Suntrust Banks (STI) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
  • Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Cut to Underperform at KBW.

Jon C. Ogg
September 10, 2008

As Chinese Slow Car Buying, Detroit Can Panic (GM)(F)(WMT)(DELL)

Batmobile512Since almost no one in the US or Europe is buying cars, auto companies have been looking to China for salvation. That does not put them in a different class from other large companies including Wal-Mart (WMT) and Dell (DELL) who need hot sales on the mainland to prop up their earnings.

It turns out that, even though the economy in China is still doing well, the consumers in the world’s most populated country are cutting down on picking up new cars.

Among the reasons for this may be that the Chinese who can afford cars have them. The data on that point is not readily available.

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The US Economy: Sunny Days Ahead

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250"You are my sunshine, my only sunshine; you make me happy when skies are gray"

Alan Greenspan went on CNBC late yesterday to flog the paperback version of his ancient book "The Age of Turbulence". The book is so old that nothing in it is still relevant, but Greenspan needs the money.

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OPEC Taps The Brakes

Tx00338coilwellgusherodessatexasposThe Las Vegas odds were 10-to-1 that OPEC would keep production level. A lot of gamblers lost money.

The cartel cut daily production by 520,000 barrels a day to 28.8 million.

While oil prices moved up a tiny bit on the news, no one in the market panicked. The change is almost too small to matter. Oil consumption has slowed as the global economy has cooled off. Americans are walking and riding bicycles just as the Europeans have done for years.

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China Gets Normal

ChinaChina was supposed to be falling apart. Inflation was more than 10%. Labor costs were rising rapidly. The central government jacked up gas and diesel prices. The apocalypse was just around the corner.

What a difference a month makes. Consumer prices rose only 4.9% in August which would put China in a class with the US.

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Media Digest 9/11/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, Lehman (LEH) will release earnings a week early after its stock dropped 45%.

Reuters reports that OPEC agreed to a surprise production cut.

Reuters reports that CFOs are more optimistic about the US economy.

Reuters reports that Nokia (NOK) has entered into a corporate e-mail deal with Microsoft (MSFT)

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Asia Markets 9/11/2008

JapMarkets in Asia were mostly lower

The Nikkei fell .4% to 12,346. Canon dropped on concerns about the dollar. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial moved up ahead of Lehman’s earnings.

The Hang Seng fell 1% to 20,282. China Overseas Land fell on poor sales. Cathay Pacific moved up on lower oil prices

The Shanghai Composite was up .2% to 2,151.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre