Monthly Archives: May 2009

Gas Prices Rocket Up, Threaten Recovery: Will Government Cut The Gas Tax?

TX-00338-C~Oil-Well-Gusher-Odessa-Texas-PostersA report from the AAA that polls 100,000 service stations shows that average  gasoline prices are up 20% over the last month to $2.42 for a gallon of regular. With oil above $65 and rising and the summer driving season at its beginning, there is a reasonable chance that the number will go higher.

US consumer discretionary income is still under tremendous pressure as are margins a most businesses, so an increase in oil-related products and gas could undermine what appears to be the early stages of a recovery.

The federal government may be able to do something to lessen the blow of rising oil prices, but it would sharply increase the deficit. Read More »

Instead Of Letting Free Markets Operate, EU Attack Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFTThe EU has decided to go further to force Microsoft (MSFT) to give competition to its Internet Explorer a better chance to get PC market share. According to The Wall Street Journal, the EU’s new plan to help Redmond’s rivals is by “forcing a bunch of browsers into Windows, thus diluting Microsoft’s advantage.” Read More »

Imminent Change to DJIA 30 (GM, F, CSCO, ORCL, AAPL, GOOG, CL, HON, PEP, TGT, AMZN, MDT, ABT, GS, BRK-A)

Word is out that the Dow Jones Indexes team is set to release the name of the replacement for General Motors (NYSE: GM) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  We have heard that the new candidate will be announced today and also heard that the change may be announced early Monday. We have a list of stocks we believe are the most likely candidates, and a list of exclusions for several reasons.  Again, this pertains to replacing GM, so if there are a series of index changes then some of the others could make it in that we feel are not as likely.  Because the index is price-weighted rather than market capitalization-weighted, some of the would-be hopeful stocks are probably not really under consideration as members of the DJIA.
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Rig Counts Finally Chasing $60 and $65 Oil (BHI, USO, OIH, SLB)

offshore-rig-pic5It seems that the steady rise in oil prices is finally starting to support some stability in rig counts.  We just got some fresh weekly rig count data from Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) supporting some stability.  Prior weekly data was mixed on whether rig counts were really stabilizing, but the current data speaks for itself.  This may finally start to be reflected in the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF, the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) and even in Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB).
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Troubled Banks, Private Equity, Buyouts & Regulation (GS, MS, BX, BKUNA)

money-stack-imageThere remains an issue about what to do with troubled banks, and the regulations over who can own banks and at what percentages only add more questions rather than answers.  FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair and other regulators are still trying to craft a formal policy on how to deal with private equity and the ownership of banks.  Depending upon what is ultimately decided, it might even allow the “brokers gone bankers” of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to  become bank owners rather than just being classified as bank holding companies but not being bankers because that was convenient during the financial meltdown.  It will also allow private equity firms such as The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), Carlyle, and others to get more proactive in deciding which troubled banks they are interested in even before it is known that these troubled banks are formally up for grabs.

BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) was the runner-up in the race for the most expensive seizure in recent years, and it was a private equity consortium including Wilbur Ross, Carlyle, and others which won the bid for the remaining assets in the bank.  IndyMac was also taken over by J.C. Flowers. What is interesting is that regulation over control and ownership allowances by private equity firms remain cloudy when you consider the hundreds of troubled banks, the jurisdictions and regions in which they operate, and which agencies are in charge of them.  A recent report from the FDIC noted that more than 300 banks could still fail in the near-term and the FDIC has a board meeting today on certain regulations that prevent banks from past practices in aiding to their own destruction at the expense of the FDIC.
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GM BREAKS THE BUCK (GM)

burning-money-picGeneral Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) is soon to cease being a public stock for some time, if all the recent reporting and all the jaw-boning is correct.  The stock itself is showing fresh evidence of this by doing what previously would have seemed the unthinkable…. GM BROKE THE BUCK!  Shares are down at $0.96 and we have already seen 150% of an average day’s trading volume trade hands in just over an hour of trading.
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Silver Trumping Gold as Inflation Hedge (SLV, JJC, GLD)

Since the beginning of the year, the price for copper has nearly doubled, silver has risen by nearly a third, and gold has added more than 20%. Silver is in the process of having one of its best performances in a month.  Gold at $970.00 an ounce has a nice ring to it, but the poor man’s inflationary hedge of silver at $15.50 compares to lows of almost $12.00 earlier this month.

The changes in iPath DJ AIG Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE:JJC) and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) both lag the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) by more than 10%, although all are up.

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Gold Miners Staging Breakouts (GDX, AU, GOLD, RGLD, ABX, AUY, GG, NEM)

Gold has been making a serious comeback and many are talking about the $1,000 per ounce level again as being ahead shortly.  This latest run is with energy prices screaming, the US Dollar getting pounded again, and with the fears that all this new money being printed is going to create much higher inflation down the road.  When gold was making the same sort of run to $1,000 earlier this year, that was because of the fear premium.  The other difference is that in this move, we are now starting to see a technical break-out on the charts of some of the top gold miners that trade in the U.S. that are actually global operations.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) was up 4% at $44.45 in early trading, and its 52-week trading range is $15.83 to $51.84.  Two gold stocks are making key break-outs: AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) and Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD).  Other large gold mining leaders are lagging, but you have to wonder how long that will last if the stock market stays strong and if the interest in the re-flation trade stays high.
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Why the Sunshine in Solar Stocks? (STP, CSIQ, YGE, ENER, USO, BTU)

solar-panel-picSuntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE:STP) closed its follow-on offering of 23 million ADSs on May 28th. The price per ADS was $12.50, and the company raised net proceeds of about $277 million.

Suntech shares hit a high of more than $16/ADS yesterday before closing at $15.44, nearly $3 more than the follow-on offering price. And virtually all solar stocks have risen nicely in the past week. Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Ltd. (NYSE:YGE) are up nearly 20%, and Suntech and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:ENER) are up more than 5%.
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Q1 GDP, When Less-Bad Is Just Less-Bad

burning-money-picThis morning came the Q1-2009 revision to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product from the Commerce Department, and the recession is still going.  The original figure of -6.1% GDP was revised to a lower -5.7%.  This sounds better on the surface until you compare it to the Dow Jones estimates showing an expectation for a reading of ‘only’ -5.5% for the quarter.
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Uniform Indicators Show No Employment Recovery (CTAS)

burning-money-picMany investors use companies such as Cintas Corp. (NASDAQ: CTAS) as a bogey of the economy, particularly for the employment sector.  There is a simple reason here: it provides corporate uniforms and related business services.  It is a direct tell on what is going on in the employment sector at major services and manufacturing companies where employees wear uniforms.  The earnings warning that Cintas gave this morning is not indicative of anything like a recovery coming yet in employment trends.
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Top Analyst Downgrades (BKC, JNJ, LVLT, NETL)

These are the few top pre-market analyst downgrades or cautious research calls from Wall Street firms this Friday morning with about two hours until the market opens:

Burger King (BKC) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Level 3 Communications (LVLT) Cut to Sell at UBS.
NetLogic (NETL) Started as Neutral at Baird and started as Hold at Roth.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Upgrades (CBS, LH, LXK, MS, ODP, PII, DGX, TLAB, WINN)

These are the few top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive research notes from Wall Street firms early this Friday morning with about two hours until the market opens:

CBS (CBS) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Laboratory Corp. (LH) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Lexmark (LXK) Raised to EqualWeight at Barclays.
Morgan Stanley (MS) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Office Depot (ODP) raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Polaris (PII) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Tellabs (TLAB) Started as Buy at Auriga.
Winn-Dixie (WINN) Raised to Outperform at FBR.

JON C. OGG

Dell (DELL) News Not Good For Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), And Microsoft (MSFT)

bearIt may be worth noting in passing that the comments of Dell’s (DELL) CFO during the company’s earnings call are bad news for any supplier of PC components and software. Brian Gladden said “Demand is still not improving.”

If his assessment is right, sales of Microsoft’s (MSFT) Vista could be hurt and the launch of Windows 7 may not be as much of a success as has been anticipated.

Intel’s (INTC) CEO said that the company was looking at a recovery in its business toward the middle of the year. That is looking less likely. Troubled chip firm AMD (AMD) has finally forecast a profit. Maybe not.

Rumors of an improvement in tech spending look like they are premature.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A Powerful Rise In Oil, Even By 2008 Standards

oilOil will post its largest one-month rise since 1999 in May. That does not seem possible given that it rocketed up to $147 in the middle of last year. The news is a sign that crude prices are on a march that may not end this month.

According to Bloomberg, much of the fuel for the increase is the desire to put money which has been on the sidelines for months to work. If so, crude is going up for one of the same reasons that the stock market is–speculation. Read More »

Japan: Unemployment Still The Rub

SunsetUnemployment in Japan moved up to 5% in April. That may not seem like much to Americans, but in the world’s second largest economy it is like a 10% figure would be in the US.

Factory production was up 5.2% in April. That increase, over March, was the largest jump in 56 years. Nonetheless, production is still low by historical standards. Read More »

Verizon (VZ) Makes A Play To Be King Of All Wireless

WinterVerizon Wireless (VZ)(VOD) plans to flank the AT&T (T) Apple (AAPL) iPhone marketing plan by any means available. It will launch versions of the Palm (PALM) Pre, which has to be a blow to Sprint (C), in six months. In addition, it will be selling the RIM’s (RIMM) Blackberry Storm, and a new Google (GOOG) Android-based phone. That cannot be good for No.4 US cell carrier T-Mobile, which is the only American company selling a phone with the Google mobile operating system now. Read More »

What About Ford (F)?

bearChrysler is well on its way through the Chapter 11 process. The media has pointed out that even if everything goes as planned Chrysler has a line of vehicles that desperately needs a face lift. The company will also have to deal with the time difference between where the workers are in Detroit and where the bosses are in Italy. Read More »

The Minimum, Minimum Wage

bankIt is un-American to pay workers a pauper’s wage, and it is un-American to mandate that a company must pay an employee more than his work is worth. The debate about the minimum wage may be much more complex than the concept of work value and government intervention in private enterprise compensation, but those are the basic building blocks for this argument. Read More »

Media Digest 5/29/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   GM (GM) is close to bankruptcy after a deal with bondholders.

Reuters:   Banks are lobbying Washington on derivatives rules.

Reuters:   Dell’s (DELL) profits fell but beat estimates.

Reuters:  Iacocca will lose his car and pension in the Chrysler bankruptcy. Read More »