This morning came the Q1-2009 revision to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product from the Commerce Department, and the recession is still going. The original figure of -6.1% GDP was revised to a lower -5.7%. This sounds better on the surface until you compare it to the Dow Jones estimates showing an expectation for a reading of ‘only’ -5.5% for the quarter.
The largest components for drops continue to be in domestic investments, which includes fixed investment, non-residential, structures, residential, and even equipment and software. The Commerce Department also noted additional weakness remaining in services for export and import.
While we have been in the “looking for less-bad” camp, this is still hard to get excited about. At least it wasn’t worse than the original dismal report.
It is probably soon to jump to this notion, particularly when we are discussing economic reading revisions. But at some point in the next few weeks to months, the forward looking data is going to need to be looking higher ahead rather than just the continued notion of “less-bad is good enough.”
Jon C. Ogg
May 29, 2009
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