Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) released its annual energy outlook. The company projects the year 2040 will be a shared energy future, but one still dominated by oil and gas. The outlook evaluates trends in energy supply, as well as demand and technology, to help the company guide its long-term investments.
In the 2013 report, the global economy is expected to grow on average by 2.8% from 2010 to 2040. The company sees population growth expected to be 35% to almost 9 billion people by 2040. The projection expects India’s population to overtake China’s after 2030. Africa’s gross domestic product is estimated to grow by about 4% per year, and China is projected to grow more than 5% on average annually through 2040.
Over the next five years, Exxon Mobil expects to invest approximately $185 billion in energy projects. It is probably not surprising, but Exxon Mobil sees oil remaining the number one global fuel. Oil and gas are predicted to supply about 60% of global energy demand in 2040, versus about 55% in 2010. The company also sees natural gas growing by 85% and overtaking coal for the number two spot. Nuclear power is expected to double out to 2040.
While the stress was on efficiency, Exxon did note that wind and solar energy would form an important and growing part of the global energy mix. Unfortunately, the limitations of these are still present as well. The oil and gas giant even goes on to say that climate change policies will play a key role in limiting the growth of greenhouse gas in the future.
Here is Exxon’s full annual outlook.
JON C. OGG