Bianco's point: the last surprise ceasefire headline was followed within hours by strikes on energy facilities, so anyone selling crude risk premium on this one is trading a script that already failed once.

A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE https://t.co/3heVeDDHbj [Quoted @DeItaone]: ZELENSKIY SAYS TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS NEWS FOR HIM -AXIOS ZELENSKIY SAYS IF RUSSIANS AGREE TO AN ENERGY CEASEFIRE UKRAINE WILL AGREE -AXIOS
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One half of the supposed deal says he heard about it on the news, so any crude and refined-product risk premium that came out on the ceasefire headline can go right back in.

JUST IN: Zelensky says Trump's announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine “was news to me.” https://t.co/YI2unX6q04 [Quoted @Polymarket]: BREAKING: Trump announces an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia & Ukraine, with both countries agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
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Palantir trades at 25 times the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio, the kind of gap that forces revenue growth to be flawless for years. Nvidia at 19 and Amazon at 4 show how unevenly the AI trade has been priced.

Price to Sales Ratio (TTM Sales) SpaceX: 103 Palantir: 87 CrowdStrike: 52 AMD: 24 Broadcom: 20 NVIDIA: 19 Applied Materials: 13 Tesla: 13 Microsoft: 12 Apple: 11 Google: 10 Micron: 9 Intel: 9 Meta: 8 Cisco: 7 Netflix: 6 Oracle: 6 Amazon: 4 S&P 500: 3.5
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A halt to strikes on Russian refineries is the biggest swing factor left in crude's risk premium, and Zelensky's "only if Russia does" caveat means it is not locked in. Oil and energy names move on whoever blinks next.

BREAKING: Trump claims an immediate "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine but Zelensky says Ukraine will only pause if Russia does the same
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Buyers no longer leading with price is exactly the anecdote a hawkish Cleveland Fed chief cites to argue inflation pressure still has room to run, and Timiraos is the reporter rate watchers read for policy signals.

What does a Fed hawk listen for on a factory floor? At industrial-hardware maker Jergens in Cleveland, Beth Hammack heard that price has fallen to third in importance on customers' lists, behind quality and speed.
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A halt to strikes on refineries and pipelines takes the single biggest supply-risk premium out of crude and diesel pricing, right as US diesel sits at record highs.

BREAKING: Trump announces an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia & Ukraine, with both countries agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
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An end to strikes on refineries strips out the war premium holding up crude, European gas and refining margins. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv has confirmed, so energy longs are trading on Trump's word alone.

TRUMP: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, THERE IS AN ENERGY CEASEFIRE IN WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE https://t.co/eKLkvWhuNF [Quoted @DeItaone]: TRUMP ANNOUNCES IMMEDIATE RUSSIA-UKRAINE ENERGY CEASEFIRE Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, effective immediately. “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Moscow and Kyiv have yet to confirm.
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A halt to strikes on energy infrastructure heading into winter would take a risk premium out of European gas and crude, but neither Moscow nor Kyiv has confirmed it yet.

TRUMP ANNOUNCES IMMEDIATE RUSSIA-UKRAINE ENERGY CEASEFIRE Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, effective immediately. “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Moscow and Kyiv have yet to confirm.
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