Ray Dalio Warns Stocks Are Running Out of Room for Error — and AI Could Make It Worse
Ray Dalio sees a narrowing window for stocks as bond yields climb and AI giants burn through capital faster than they can generate it. The question is whether record contract backlogs can close that gap before debt costs force a…
Ray Dalio used his appearance at the Milken Institute Asia Summit on Oct. 8 to warn about the stocks leading this market. The Bridgewater Associates founder said equities have absorbed rising interest rates “because there’s enough earnings growth and there’s enough expected return,” but the advantage of owning stocks over bonds has narrowed as stock prices and bond yields rose together.
The rate background backs up his concern. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.22% on Oct. 8, up 0.42 points from a month earlier. Dalio called the bond bear market “pretty clear” with “more to go” as governments and companies compete for capital.
Dalio’s Free Cash Flow Test Hits AI Spenders Hardest
Dalio urged investors to look past headline earnings, noting that “companies can report earnings while continuing to invest without getting cash back from those investments,” which creates “a liquidity issue that’s evolving.” Free cash flow is the cash left after capital spending. Here is how the AI leaders stack up on their latest quarters:
| Company | Quarterly Capex | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) | $2.677B | $21.341B |
| Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) | $35.802B | $19.639B |
| Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) | $44.92B | -$5.86B |
| Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) | $30.12B | $784M |
| Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) | $28.5B | -$5.4B |
| CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) | $6.42B | -$5.74B |
NVIDIA, the supplier, turns the boom into surplus cash. Its customers are absorbing the cost. Microsoft’s free cash flow fell 23.19% year over year as full-year capex reached $115.95B. Meta’s free cash flow dropped 91.31%.
Borrowed Money Is Filling the Cash Gap
Alphabet raised $49.6B in equity and $20.3B in debt, then suspended buybacks. Meta lifted long-term debt to $83.66B. Oracle completed a $20B at-the-market stock sale, and its interest expense rose 55% to $1.4B. Asked when free cash flow becomes positive, Oracle’s CFO said, “We haven’t given a particular timeframe on that yet.” CoreWeave’s interest expense hit $640 million versus $267 million a year earlier, with Q3 guidance of $860 million to $940 million. Such is the capital competition Dalio described.
Record Backlogs Are the Bull Case Against Dalio
Contracted demand is huge. Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligations jumped 84% to $678B. Oracle’s reached $664B, and CoreWeave’s backlog hit ~$104B. NVIDIA’s latest earnings release showed supply obligations of $279.00 billion, mostly memory for Vera Rubin. Chief executive Jensen Huang said, “Now, compute is revenue.”
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said on the July call that capex has shifted toward short-lived chips, so “if the demand environment changes, you just slow down” spending. Valuations price in that success: NVIDIA trades at about 46 times earnings, Microsoft 30, Meta 26 and Alphabet 16.
What Investors Should Track Next
The market has started testing the weakest balance sheets. NVIDIA, Oracle, and CoreWeave fell on a report about OpenAI’s revenue on Oct. 8. Oracle is down 51.75% over the past year, and CoreWeave is down 42.63%, while NVIDIA is up 19.35%. With the VIX at just 15.41, options traders are pricing in little stress.
In the next earnings reports, compare free cash flow with capex, check Meta’s $130-145B capex guidance and track interest costs. Wider credit spreads, which Dalio said have started to appear, would show his warning taking hold.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
