After months when its sales were not only modest but falling, Volkswagen’s unit sales are expected to grow 14% in December. If the trend continues, VW may even find itself among the second tier of car manufacturers, by sales, in the United States.

VW’s sales are expected to rise 14.2% to 62,000, according to Kelley Blue Book (KBB). Granted that December is expected to be among the best sales months in U.S. auto history. KBB researchers said:

New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 9.8 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.49 million units, resulting in an estimated 16.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

In detail:

• In December, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,490,000 units, up 9.8 percent from December 2013 and up 14.7 percent from November 2014.
• The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December 2014 is estimated to be 16.7 million, up from 15.4 million in December 2013 and down from 17.1 million in November 2014.

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The only car company expected to grow faster in December is Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU), which has had white-hot sales all year. Its sales are expected to rise 20.5% to 194,000. The reason, according to KBB:

Fiat Chrysler is set to cap an extraordinary year with another month of double-digit growth, which would be the tenth time this year. Fueled by demand for Jeep and RAM products, the manufacturer stands to end the year with more than 2 million sales and 16.2 percent sales growth, increasing market share by more than a full percentage point.

What might be behind VW’s growth? Almost certainly its Golf series, which Motor Trend recently named the Car of the Year for 2015. The base model is inexpensive, at $17,995, which puts it within the buying range of people who want small, fuel-efficient cars. The high-end Golf GTI is something of a pocket racer for those who want to go fast. It has a 210 hp engine. One Golf model even comes with an all-electric engine that claims highway mpg of 116.

The future of VW still relies on whether it can make other models in its family attractive. Its Jetta, Passat and CC will continue to have a hard time breaking into the mainstream mid-tier segment. So, VW’s ultimate success in the United States has to do with major upgrades in those models.

In the meantime, VW can brag about December.

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