November car sales are expected to rise to near-record levels, continuing a run that is two years old. However, year-over-year sales will only rise .1% from a strong November last year. GM (NYSE: GM) is expected to have the most impressive growth, up 1.9%, according to car research firm KBB.
The improvement will take GM’s sales to 230,000, well ahead of Ford (NYSE: F), which is expected to be in the No. 2 position. Ford is forecast to sell 188,000 cars, up .9%. GM’s brands include Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC. Ford’s include Ford and luxury brand Lincoln.
As usual, Toyota (NYSE: TM) continues to chase Ford for second place. KBB forecasts it will sell 181,000 cars, down 1.3% from last year. Toyota models include Toyota and luxury brand Lexus. Among the other Japanese manufacturers, Honda (NYSE: HMC), which includes the luxury brand Acura, is expected to sell 119,000 cars, down 2.3%, while Nissan, which includes the luxury brand Infiniti, is expected to sell 104,000, up .8%.
Chrysler will continue its extraordinary run, which began not long after it emerged from Chapter 11 and the beginning of its relationship with Fiat. Sales are expected to rise .1% to 171,000. Fiat Chrysler brands include Jeep, which has been the manufacturer’s sales workhorse, Chrysler, RAM, Dodge, and Fiat. Most of these have performed poorly in customer satisfaction surveys, but that has not dented the parent company’s success.
Not surprisingly, VW sales are expected to collapse next month, down 9.5% to 48,000. The figures would be worse, almost certainly, without the sales of Porsche and Audi luxury cars.
The research firm commented on the market as a whole:
New-vehicle sales are expected to remain flat year-over-year to a total of 1.3 million units in November 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.
“Black Friday deals on vehicles have grown in popularity in recent years, and should be a big contributor to this month’s sales results,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “However, industry incentive spending has been on the rise in recent months, topping $3,000 on average since July 2015, so we are carefully watching to see whether consumer demand can sustain such high sales levels without elevated manufacturer spending.”
While sales are expected to break even with last November’s totals, this primarily is due to a calendar quirk with two fewer selling days in November 2015 compared to last year. At 1.3 million units, this month will mark the highest November sales volume since 2001. Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 17.4 million units overall, a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase and the highest industry total on record.
Without the holiday, sales for the industry for the month might have been negative compared to last year. Maybe the trend of sales growth in the car industry has started to flag, but has not quite stumbled yet.
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