Why Morgan Stanley Worries GM Will Fall Even Further

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By Paul Ausick Updated Published

GMBRANDMARK-blueflat

courtesy of General Motors
Saying that it believes that a lot of the bad things that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) said in its recent profit warning also apply to the outlook for General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), an analyst at Morgan Stanley on Tuesday cut its price target on GM stock from $29 to $27 a share and left unchanged an Underweight rating. GM stock has not reacted well, down about 3.5%. When Ford issued its warning late last month, its shares fell about twice that much.

In its press release, Ford said that pretax profits would total $6 billion and that North American profit margins are expected at around 8%, the lower end of its previous guidance range. The company blamed higher warranty costs, including North American recalls, and low volume in South America and Russia. Sales are expected to improve in Europe, but the region is still expected to post a loss for the year.

That statement could just as easily have come from GM. The company has recalled more than 26 million cars in the United States so far in 2014. Its European business has been so awful for so long that most observers wonder why GM doesn’t just close it down (easier said than done in Europe).

Car sales in Russia have been in the tank all year and will not improve any time soon. GM’s St. Petersburg plant is cutting production and offering buyouts to 500 of its 2,000 employees.

GM’s stock price dropped 3.7% to $32.50 in the late morning Tuesday, within a 52-week range of $31.67 to $41.85. The consensus estimate for GM share price from 16 analysts is about $42.30.

ALSO READ: GM Adds Nearly 350,000 to 2014 U.S. Recall Total

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About the Author Paul Ausick →

Paul Ausick has been writing for 247Wallst.com for more than a decade. He has written extensively on investing in the energy, defense, and technology sectors. In a previous life, he wrote technical documentation and managed a marketing communications group in Silicon Valley.

He has a bachelor's degree in English from the University of Chicago and now lives in Montana, where he fishes for trout in the summer and stays inside during the winter.

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