What to Expect When Fitbit Reports After the Close

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Fitbit Inc. (NYSE: FIT) is scheduled to release its most recent quarterly results after the markets close on Wednesday. The consensus estimates are a net loss of $0.01 per share and $381.21 million in revenue. In the same period of last year, the company posted a net loss of $0.01 per share and $392.52 million in revenue.

When Fitbit reported its most recent quarterly results, the company noted that smartwatch revenue accounted for 55% of quarterly revenue, up from 30% in the prior year.

In a June report from IDC, the research firm noted that Apple will take about half (20.2 million) of an estimated 43.5 million smartwatch shipments in 2018. Smartwatches will trail wristbands in market share, 34.8% to 36.1% in 2018, but by 2022 smartwatches will claim a market share of 44.6% (89.1 million units) compared to a 23% share for wristbands (45.9 million units).

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for smartwatches in the period 2018 to 2022 is 19.6%, while wristband shipments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 0.4%. Here’s what IDC had to say about wristbands:

The market for wristbands is expected to decline 6.6% in 2018 as demand for these simple devices has cooled off and incumbents like Fitbit and Garmin continue to pursue smartwatch growth instead. … Meanwhile, average selling prices (ASPs) [for wristbands] are expected to drop below $50 by 2022.

Yes, Fitbit did toss its hat into the smartwatch arena, but the timing was wrong and continuing to develop new wristbands is not going to end the company’s slump. At best, new fitness trackers will distract investors from the company’s difficulties in the market for smartwatches and in the CEO’s plan to be a “front end to the consumer healthcare system.”

Excluding Wednesday’s move, Fitbit has underperformed the broad markets, with its stock down about 27.5% in the past 52 weeks. In just 2018 alone, the stock is down closer to 23%.

A few analysts weighed in on Fitbit ahead of the report:

  • Wedbush has an Outperform rating and a $7 price target.
  • William Blair has a Market Perform rating.
  • Morgan Stanley has a Sell rating with a $4 price target.
  • Robert Baird has a Hold rating with a $6 target price.
  • Merrill Lynch has a Sell rating with a $5 price target.
  • Stifel has a Hold rating with a $6 price target.

Shares of Fitbit were last seen up about 3% at $4.56, with a 52-week trading range of $4.46 to $7.79. The consensus analyst price target is $6.47.