Fall 2006 Consumer Spending Trends

By Yaser Anwar, CSC of Equity Investment Ideas

ChangeWave Research shows that consumers have been very resilient. I’ve posted a few images below of overall spending patterns and summary of key findings which will help you dissect your take on the retailers and consumer discretionary stocks.

ChangeWave Alliance members were surveyed on their consumer spending and shopping plans for the fall, including an updated look at PC and iPod sales. A total of 3,046 members participated.

A total of 36% of respondents say they’ll spend more over the next 90 days compared to a year ago – down 2-pts from the August survey. Another 26% say they’ll spend less – 3-pts worse than previously. However, there is a monster ChangeQuake occurring in the Apple PC market a huge and ever-growing pool of consumers interested in buying the new Intel Mac.

The Hardest Hit Group- According to the survey the biggest declines are still occurring among respondent households earning Less than $50,000 per year. However, wealthier respondents – households earning more than $100,000 per year – also experienced a decline.

One-third (33%) of respondents say they’ll spend more on Consumer Electronics over the next 90 days and 28% less (Net Difference Score = +5) – a 15-pt increase since August. This is attributable to the expected uptick in consumer spending that normally occurs at the start of the holiday spending season.

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