Stocks have closed at record levels yet again, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) came only a point or so shy of 17,000 ahead of this week’s key Labor Department report on payrolls and unemployment. Two reports act as pre-payrolls reports each month — TrimTabs and ADP. If you only looked at ADP, you will now be expecting a stellar payrolls report this week; TrimTabs is tempering that expectation. So, which report do you trust?
ADP reported that private sector payrolls increased by some 281,000 jobs from May to June. Bloomberg was expecting only 213,000 for June, and the May reading was only 179,000. Small businesses accounted for 117,000, medium-sized businesses were 115,000 and large businesses accounted for 49,000. The goods-producing sector was broken down for 51,000 and the other 230,000 were services and non-manufacturing activities.
TrimTabs Investment Research is not as widely followed as ADP, but TrimTabs has a much more tempered report. It signaled that the U.S. economy added 174,000 jobs in June, the slowest month in terms of jobs growth since February.
As a reminder, ADP is not as representative of large businesses as much as it is small and mid-sized businesses for payrolls data. Also, TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 139 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. TrimTabs is often off the mark on a monthly reading, but the firm claims that its reading over the longer term proves to be more reliable than the initial reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Markets are looking to add gains on Wednesday, with the DJIA futures up 17 points and the S&P 500 futures up 1.50. The 10-year Treasury yield is now up at 2.59%.
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