Economy

Q2 GDP Blowout -- at Least on the Headline Data

It turns out that the first quarter drop of 2.9% in gross domestic product (GDP) was truly a blip, just like economists had been saying all along. What is more of a surprise is just how strong the GDP report was — a massive gain of 4.0% for headline GDP, and that first quarter drop of 2.9% was revised to a drop of only 2.1%.

There is no way to deny that this seasonally adjusted GDP report from the Commerce Department was stronger than expected. After all, Bloomberg had a consensus estimate for a gain of 3.1% and was right in the middle of two lowered estimates last week from Goldman Sachs and from Morgan Stanley. Still, annual revisions are making this second-quarter GDP report harder to use on an apples-to-apples basis.

If you back out the inflationary component and look at the personal consumption expenditure price index, that rose by 2.3%. Bloomberg was calling for 2.0% or so in the report.

The implication here is that the negative first quarter and the very positive second quarter now puts the first half of 2014 with GDP growth of roughly 1%. The annual revisions also put the GDP growth during the second half of 2013 at 4.0% — the best reading in 10 years.

Household spending was shown to have risen by 2.5% in the second quarter. That was only a gain of 1.2% in the first quarter. Another driver was a change in private inventories, adding more than 1.6 points to the second quarter. Business spending was up by 5.5%. Exports rose by 9.5%, but imports rose even more at 11.7%.

Government spending and investment also contributed, with gains of 1.6% in the second quarter. Interestingly enough, the Federal spending was down but local government spending was up.

A final note here is that the GDP report was much better on the headline. These revisions and new inclusions make the number much harder to use a direct comparison. We would point to the price-weighted report being much closer to estimates at 2.3% vs. 2.0% expected as evidence that the report might not be quite what it seems if you just read the headlines.

On FOMC watch for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday: We still expect no change in rates and a $10 billion tapering to $25 billion in the Fed’s bond buying program per month from $35 billion.

ALSO READ: The 10 Most Oil-Rich States

Essential Tips for Investing: Sponsored

A financial advisor can help you understand the advantages and disadvantages of investment properties. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.

Investing in real estate can diversify your portfolio. But expanding your horizons may add additional costs. If you’re an investor looking to minimize expenses, consider checking out online brokerages. They often offer low investment fees, helping you maximize your profit.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.