China’s population will hit 1.44 billion, according to research by a government agency. That will put it at about four and a half times the U.S. figure. The same researchers forecast that the number will start to fall after 2030 due to the aging population.
The data come from the “Green Book of Population and Labor,” which is published by the China Academy of Social Sciences. The reasons for the decline are remarkably similar to America’s situation. The baby boom population will begin to hit old age. American families have fewer children.
The trend also is most likely a side effect of China’s “one child” policy, some observers have pointed out. The Nikkei reported:
China decided in 2016 to relax a controversial “one-child policy” aimed at curbing population growth and allow all couples to have two children. However, the country’s birthrate still fell 3.5 percent in 2017 and is expected to have fallen again last year.
The decision came too late.
Also, as is true with America, the government will need to support its oldest citizens, and probably with a dwindling workforce. In the United States, it has led to worry about the ability of Social Security to pay out benefits in the years ahead. That, in turn, means that other taxes may need to go higher. The eventual result of that is a less productive workforce regarding after-tax income and a drag on consumer spending.
Finally, it is too late to solve the problem in either country.