Twist of Fate: MEMC Now May Save Solar Stocks (WFR, SOLR, JASO, SPWRA, FSLR, TAN, PBW)

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is leading solar related shares higher after its earnings.  The irony is that MEMC is perhaps one of the larger disappointments in the world of solar investing for those who have followed the sector very long.  What is perhaps more important than just MEMC’s earnings is that we are soon to have a flood of earnings reports from solar companies.  At issue will be the 2011 guidance from many of the key producers.  We are tracking key moves ahead of events in GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA), and in First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).  The news is even driving shares of Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) and the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW).

MEMC reported that its fourth quarter EPS was $0.25 on revenue of $850 million. Analysts had been expecting EPS of $0.34 on revenue of $901 million. On a non-GAAP basis, revenue totaled $949.5 billion, which includes adjustments for GAAP real estate and lease accounting.  It is the guidance ahead that drove shares.  For 2011, MEMC sees non-GAAP sales of $3.4 to 3.7 billion and earnings of $1.00 to $1.30 EPS. Estimates for all of 2011 were only $1.00 EPS and $2.65 billion in sales.  MEMC shares are trading up 11.3% at $12.95 on the day against a 52-week range of $9.19 to $16.99.

Reporting after the close today is GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) and it is participating in the rally as well.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.38 EPS and $251.9 million in revenues.  If it offers guidance, those estimates for next quarter ar $0.38 EPS and $228.9 million in revenues and the annual 2011 estimates (actually March-2012) $1.26 EPS and $869.13 million in revenues.  Shares are up 2.7% at $11.50 and the 52-week range is $4.90 to $11.95.  GT Solar shares are up 2.7% at $11.50 versus a 52-week range of $4.90 to $11.95.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) reports late next week.  Of the recent solar names, it seems to have been battered more than others as analysts downgraded the shares. With a $1.2 billion market cap, shares are up today by over 6% to $7.40 versus a 52-week range of $4.22 to $10.24.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) reports on or about February 17, and its shares are up 6.5% at $14.75 today against a 52-week range of $9.61 to $22.19.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is one we are still awaiting an earnings date on.  The company’s most recent guidance was given in December for a full 2011 outlook.  On December 14, 2010, First Solar gave a 2011 outlook as follows:  For 2011… net sales in the range of $3.7 to $3.9 billion, up about 46% year over year; the net sales forecast is comprised of $2.8 to $2.9 billion of module sales and $0.9 to $1.0 billion of EPC/project development sales. Earnings of between $8.75 to $9.50 EPS and consolidated operating income was put at $875 to $975 million with operating cash flows put at $1.0 to $1.1 billion for the year.  First Solar also noted that it plans to invest $1.0 to $1.1 billion of capital to nearly double production capacity by year-end 2012, to maintain existing capacity and to add infrastructure to support growth.  Shares of First Solar are up over 5% at $164.13 and shares hit a new 52-week high today of $165.90.

Another issue helping the sector is word that Germany has apparently reached terms on solar feed-in tariff cuts for 2011.

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is a pure-play ETF for solar stocks and it is up 4.8% at $8.51 today against a 52-week range of $6.02 to $9.34.  The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW) has a large portion of its holdings tied to solar and its shares are up 1.9% at $10.88 versus a 52-week range of $4.00 to $11.10.

JON C. OGG