Analysts Mixed on Extraction Oil & Gas Coverage as Quiet Period Ends

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Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. (NASDAQ: XOG) has seen its quiet period come to an end. Note that this initial public offering (IPO) of $19.00 per share in early October priced above its initial range of $15.00 to $18.00.

24/7 Wall St. tracks many IPOs and other capital raises, and now we are getting a first look at the underwriting group’s analyst calls. The first take is that the calls look quite mixed, but a closer look also shows some substantial upside in some of their calls.

Credit Suisse started the stock as Outperform with what appears to be the highest analyst target price listed: $30. The firm’s view is that this independent oil and gas company, which is primarily focused on the exploration and development in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin in northeast Colorado, could offer more upside than the rest of the analysts are assuming. Credit Suisse said:

Following the October acquisition of 6,100 net acres within its core Wattenberg focus area, the company now maintains over 3,500 one mile equivalent Codell and Niobrara locations. This represents approximately 19 years of inventory with the majority of this economic below $50/barrel oil. The company also retains un-booked inventory upside with 124,000 net acres in its Northern Extension area, where application of XOG’s completion style success from its focus area or additional commodity price upside has the potential to drive incremental value.

Wells Fargo started the stock as Outperform with a valuation range of $24 to $27. The firm’s range statement and thesis said:

Our valuation range is based on our NAV estimate of $31.13, which we risk by 20%. Risks to our valuation range include material sustained oil and gas price weakness along with an inability to grow production and profitability as forecasted.

Extraction Oil and Gas is a premier DJ Basin operator with approximately 100,000 net acres in the Wattenberg Fairway. The company is poised to drive substantial production and profitability growth over the next 12-24 months, and we believe shares will outperform the group.

KeyBanc Capital Markets started Extraction Oil & Gas as Overweight with a $25 price target, while SunTrust Robinson Humphrey started coverage with a Buy rating and assigned a $27 price target.

Other calls, which were less optimistic, were seen as follows:

  • Extraction Oil & Gas was started as Sector Perform with a $24 price target at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Citigroup started it as Neutral with a $23 price target.
  • Barclays started it as Overweight with a $24 price target.
  • Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and with a $23 price target.

When Extraction Oil & Gas priced its IPO, their use of funds was shown to be as follows:

  • $90.0 million of the net proceeds from this offering to redeem in full certain of its convertible preferred securities and
  • $291.6 million to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility.

Extraction said that it would use the remaining net proceeds of $212.5 million for general corporate purposes, including to fund its 2016 and 2017 capital expenditures.

Extraction Oil & Gas shares were last seen trading up 18 cents at $20.60, with a post-IPO range of $19.51 to $23.12.

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