While the battle rages on Wall Street on which way the price of oil ultimately goes, investors in the refiners are watching close for a blowout in the difference between Brent crude and Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS). In a new research report, the analysts at UBS say they stand firm on their very constructive 12-month view for U.S. refining equities. They also have the expectation that growth in U.S. light oil production from shale risks might start overwhelming the country’s ability to absorb these barrels. The UBS team also believes the potential for a price blowout is there for this year and next, and the refining stocks could be big beneficiaries of price dislocations.
Here are the top refining stocks to buy now from UBS.
CVR Refining L.P. (NYSE: CVRR) is actually structured as a master limited partnership (MLP) and provides investors with a very high distribution. The company owns two refineries and has 350 miles of owned pipelines as well as a 145,000 barrels per day pipeline system that transports crude oil from its Broome Station tank farm to its Coffeyville refinery. Investors are paid a very hefty 7.8% distribution. The UBS price target for the stock is $26, and the Thomson/First Call consensus estimate is $25.83. Shares closed Thursday at $23.20.
Northern Tier Energy L.P. (NYSE: NTI) is also structured as an MLP. The company operates through two segments, Refining and Retail. The Refining segment offers refined products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt to resellers and consumers. The Retail segment operates 164 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand name, and it has 75 more franchised retail outlets. Investors are paid a very solid 6.3% distribution. The UBS price target is $30, and the consensus is at $30.1. Northern Tier closed Thursday at $26.01.
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is one of three top refining picks at UBS for 2014. Over the next few years, the analysts expect the balance of Phillips 66’s companywide earnings to undergo a shift toward one that is more heavily exposed to midstream and chemicals operations. UBS thinks that higher crude prices can meaningfully drive earnings and the stock’s share price. The UBS price target is lifted to $91 from $86, and the consensus target is $85.88. The stock closed Thursday at $80.60.
Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) is another UBS top pick for this year in refining. The UBS analysts cite the possibility for meaningful EBITDA growth driven by its newly acquired Carson refinery and eventually through its Port of Vancouver crude logistics project. Investors are paid a 2% dividend. The UBS price objective is $68, while the consensus target is $67.20. Tesoro closed Thursday at $51.35.
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) rounds out the UBS top three picks for 2014. UBS points out that with 56% of companywide refining capacity located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Valero is well positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure debottlenecking of inland crude oil supply in 2014. The firm also thinks the company will generate an astounding free cash flow compounded annual growth rate of 24% during the period from 2013 to 2016. Investors are paid a 1.9% dividend. The UBS price target is $61 and the consensus is at $59.44. Valero closed Thursday at $55.79.
Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) gets a big earnings revision boost from the UBS team, with earnings estimates for 2014 and 2015 increased by 8%. The refining segment operates refineries in El Paso, Texas, and Gallup, New Mexico. The Wholesale segment includes a fleet of crude oil and finished product truck transports, as well as wholesale petroleum products operations in nine states. Investors are paid a solid 2.7% dividend. The UBS price target is $46 and the consensus target is $45.35. The stock closed Thursday at $39.64.
Despite a ton of negative sentiment, the refiners and energy as a whole look poised to do well the rest of the year. With oil prices hovering near the $100 mark and the busy summer travel season just around the corner, demand should only start to increase from here. If the refinery investors get the spread blowout many are looking for in the fourth quarter, things could really get exciting for these top names to buy.
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