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Retail Same-Store Sales Expected Up 3.1% for November (M, JWN, JCP, JOSB, TIF, AEO)

Retail Metrics is out with its final forecast for retail chains and their same-store sales for November with a gain of 3.1%.  All in all, the report is calling for a 3.1% increase for November.  This may not sound very high but it needs to be considered that it is actually on top of a reading of 5.5% same-store sales gains reported in November 2010.  If you adjust for items, the report is calling for “a more modest expectation for a 2.8% November same store
sales rise.”

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) all experienced minor downward revisions from the Retail Metrics data; and Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) was lowered to 2.5% from 2.7%. The final consensus estimates came down by 10 basis points from 3.2% due largely to department store forecasts being down 10 basis points to 2.2%

More data showed that Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. (NASDAQ: JOSB) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) both reported solid earnings for the third quarter, but also gave cautionary guidance for November and for the current quarter.

Teen apparel chain American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) actually managed to raise its guidance due to strong sales over Thanksgiving weekend with higher store traffic.

Two issues to consider: Black Friday weekend accounts for about 20% to 30% of most retailers’ November sales, and it was noted that the Thanksgiving Day and Midnight openings were called a huge success and even more so with younger shoppers.