November Job Gains Forecast at +125,000

The US Department of Labor is set to report non-farm payroll numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning. Estimates of the number of new jobs range from 75,000 to 175,000, with the average being 125,000 according to a survey by Bloomberg. Wednesday’s private-sector employment report from ADP showed that the US had gained 206,000 jobs in the November, so expectations are high for this morning’s report.

Job gains in the private sector are likely to be offset somewhat by job losses in the public sector as tight budgets at all levels of government have forced job cuts. Earlier this week a report on job cuts from Challenger Gray & Christmas noted 42,000 layoffs in November, including 18,000 federal civilian employees who lost their jobs.

The expected November job gains are not expected to lower the current US unemployment rate of 9%. Unless job gains rise above about 150,000 the gains don’t offset the number of new entrants into the job market.

Rising consumer confidence may also help boost employment figures. As one analyst told Bloomberg, “Consumer and business demand is very uncertain. Hiring managers need proof of sales before they’re willing to add workers.”